The Patriots' Schedule and What It Presents

mosi · Sep 23, 2015

The Pats success is all dependent upon Gronk. Really. I have said it a hundred times, if they had a healthy ground in 2011 and 2012, they would have won the Super Bowl. He is more important and better than Moss was in 2007.

Just think, this offense is actually going to get better. The drops in the Bills games were crazy. Once they stop doing that, I think we will see this offense really start rolling. And a run game? Blount will come into his own when the weather drops and this could be a very special year.

1960Pats · Sep 23, 2015

TruthSeeker said:
The 2007 schedule was the toughest in the NFL based on 2006 records. This schedule has got to be one of the easiest.

I know it's very early, but the Pats have played one of the toughest schedules so far. This is a list of the strength of schedule for the undefeated NFL teams and the rankings of their opponents.

SOS - Team (Opponents Rankings)
T2 - Patriots (7-9)
T12 - Denver (16-12)
22 - Cincy (26-14)
T23 - NYJ (25-17)
T25 - Atlanta (21-22)
T25 - Dallas (22-21)
27 - Green Bay (32-13)
30 - Carolina (27-29)
32 - Arizona (31-32)

Upon further review, it appears that the NFC's undefeated teams have played a pancake schedule so far, especially the Cards.

Oswlek · Sep 23, 2015

I have no idea where to put this, so this will have to do.

In Footballoutsiders' playoff odds, NE reaches the AFCCG in an incredible 47% of their simulations. That's just absurd when you consider how difficult it is, odds-wise, to even win a single game as a favorite. And they have the Patriots winning that game nearly 30% of the time. Remarkable.

Soul_Survivor88 · Sep 23, 2015

Oswlek said:
I have no idea where to put this, so this will have to do.

In Footballoutsiders' playoff odds, NE reaches the AFCCG in an incredible 47% of their simulations. That's just absurd when you consider how difficult it is, odds-wise, to even win a single game as a favorite. And they have the Patriots winning that game nearly 30% of the time. Remarkable.

Sweet! Can you post the link?

Funny how ESPN and NFLN will hail teams like the Colts as Super Bowl favorites, but completely ignore the Patriots as a serious, likely contender.

Oswlek · Sep 23, 2015

Chiuba E. Obele said:
Sweet! Can you post the link?

It's in there.

RIpats88 · Sep 23, 2015

To be fair. I do feel like right now there is no team better than the pats in the afc. Only team you could say is up there is the steelers.

Broncos defense will tire out like they did last year...and peytons arm is done.

Colts are the same old soft as charmin team with turnover machine luck.

And the ravens hopefully are dead

jmt57 · Sep 23, 2015

While things look great after two games, a reality check for the 16-0 crowd.

You can pretty much count on at least on WTF game, and one division loss. In addition, nothing on the road should be taken lightly. Being favored to win every game is completely different from being expected to win every one of those games.

2014: Week 1 loss at Miami by 13 (Pats favored by 5)
2014: Week 4 loss at Kansas City by 27 (Pats favored by 3)
2014 road record: 5-3
2014 division record: 4-2

2013: Week 5 loss at Cincinnati by 7 (Pats favored by 1)
2013: Week 7 loss at N.Y. Jets by 3 (Pats favored by 3)
2013 road record: 4-4
2013 division record 4-2

2012: Week 2 loss vs Arizona by 2 (Pats favored by 13.5)
2012: Week 6 loss at Seattle by 1 (Pats favored by 4)
2012: Week 15 loss vs San Francisco by 7 (Pats favored by 5)
2012 road record: 6-2
2012 division record: 6-0

2011: Week 3 loss at Buffalo by 3 (Pats favored by 7.5)
2011: Week 8 loss at Pittsburgh by 8 (Pats favored by 3)
2011: Week 9 loss at N.Y. Giants by 4 (Pats favored by 9)
2011 road record: 6-2
2011 division record: 5-1

2010: Week 2 loss at N.Y. Jets by 14 (Pats favored by 3)
2010: Week 9 loss at Cleveland by 20 (Pats favored by 4)
2010 road record: 6-2
2010 division record: 5-1

2009: Week 2 loss at N.Y. Jets by 7 (Pats favored by 3.5)
2009: Week 5 loss at Denver by 3 (Pats favored by 3)
2009: Week 13 loss at Miami by 1 (Pats favored by 5)
2009 road record: 2-6
2009 division record: 4-2

In recent history, on average the Pats go about 5-3 on the road.
Within the division the Patriots are more likely to go 4-2 than 6-0.

It is fun to aspire for an undefeated season, but at the same time it is simply not a realistic expectation.

andrewssix · Sep 24, 2015

Karen Guregian has an article today addressing the Patriot's schedule.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/...guregian_pats_schedule_looks_softer_than_ever

"Does anyone think the Colts-Jets-Dolphins leg looks all that difficult now? Or how about the Broncos-Eagles-Texans stretch after Thanksgiving with the weak-armed Peyton Manning, the no-offense Eagles and the Texans with their quarterback merry-go-round?"

She discusses the various teams that they're facing and she thinks there's not much of a challenge.

Soul_Survivor88 · Sep 24, 2015

andrewssix said:
Karen Guregian has an article today addressing the Patriot's schedule.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/...guregian_pats_schedule_looks_softer_than_ever

"Does anyone think the Colts-Jets-Dolphins leg looks all that difficult now? Or how about the Broncos-Eagles-Texans stretch after Thanksgiving with the weak-armed Peyton Manning, the no-offense Eagles and the Texans with their quarterback merry-go-round?"

She discusses the various teams that they're facing and she thinks there's not much of a challenge.

Let me say this.... if there was ever a schedule that would allow us to go undefeated, this would definitely be it.

That said, it's much more important to win a fifth Super Bowl than it is to have a perfect regular season.

dannydyn · Sep 24, 2015

Oakland @ Gillette last year was also supposed to be a gimme.... we almost lost that damn game.

Stay humble my friends.

dannydyn · Sep 24, 2015

Also, I don't like having the bye this early in the season.... would have come very handy deeper into the season, with much needed rest.

RobertWeathers · Sep 24, 2015

dannydyn said:
Also, I don't like having the bye this early in the season.... would have come very handy deeper into the season, with much needed rest.

Yea last year the bye came at a perfect time- mid season.

I still have them going 13-3.

Ivan · Sep 24, 2015

Tunescribe said:
I don't believe in "cupcake city," especially at this stage of the season.

Couldn't agree more, writing teams off is always a mistake. One game at a time and hope their key players are healthy when January rolls around. To me the more important thing is that this team is going to be a Super Bowl contender for the rest of Bradys career, which should mean at least one more ring if not more.

Ivan · Sep 24, 2015

This should be renamed THE FRED SMERLAS SEES THE FUTURE thread.

pdangle · Sep 24, 2015

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:
If you assume that in every game you have an 80% chance of winning,
the chance of going 19-0 is
(0.8)^19

or 1.4%

An 80% chance of winning is (to the nearest number) a 13-3 regular season, so that is actually a very lofty number to assume, and the 1.4% chance is likely an overestimate, even just among the best teams ever.

Of course we've already got 2 in the bag, so on a rosy day it's maybe (0.8)^17, or 2.3%!

So... you're saying there is a chance!

everlong · Sep 24, 2015

ivanvamp said:
Week 14 - at Hou - cupcake city

Whenever the Patriots play a staff with ex-Patriots on it like BOB and Vrabel they struggle. VM will be amped up and Watt always is. Throw in some wrinkles from BOB and Vrabel knowing what the Patriots like to do and it's in Texas and I don't think this is a cake-walk.

The Gr8est · Sep 24, 2015

dannydyn said:
Also, I don't like having the bye this early in the season.... would have come very handy deeper into the season, with much needed rest.

Under normal circumstances I would agree, but this year with the Deflategate bull Mort we really didn't have an offseason to recuperate.

This is a year when we may appreciate the early bye.

The Gr8est · Sep 24, 2015

Ivan said:
Couldn't agree more, writing teams off is always a mistake. One game at a time and hope their key players are healthy when January rolls around. To me the more important thing is that this team is going to be a Super Bowl contender for the rest of Bradys career, which should mean at least one more ring if not more.

There was a time when teams wrote off the Pats as an easy "W". Things DO change.

I believe that was just prior to when the prophet Ricky Proehl's announced the birth of a new dynasty.

Ivan · Sep 24, 2015

The Gr8est said:
There was a time when teams wrote off the Pats as an easy "W". Things DO change.

I believe that was just prior to when the prophet Ricky Proehl's announced the birth of a new dynasty.

And then he got to lose to the Patriots when he played for Carolina in the Super Bowl, lmao

50-yard-line · Sep 24, 2015

BobDigital said:
IMO the key can't lose players

Offense 5 - Brady/Gronk/Edelman/Vollmer/Solder (losing any one of them hurts bad though to varying degrees. I add in Solder/Vollmer cause i believe the drop off is enormous and can not be schemed around).

Defense 3 - McCourty/Butler/Collins (no 1 player on the DL is a can't lose due to the depth there... Maybe you can add Tarell Brown to this list cause of how bad the drop off is too if you want. Also I decided to take Hightower off cause Mayo would not be a horrible drop off... There is no plan B for Collins though.)

While no team can lose key players, the Pats are better able to scheme and fill in than any other team.

I agree about Brady, of course, and losing Gronk would make the road to the SB much, much harder.

Amendola/LaFell can pick up for Jules enough to get by.

The OL will get better - with Stork and Wendell coming back, they can take a hit here or there and be fine.

McCourty is a big one, but Harmon is playing very well.
Last year they won the SB with Arrington and Ryan playing a ton, and despite what anyone wants to say, Browner was no better in coverage than Fletcher, period, and got flagged every game.
As for Collins, he's great. So is Mayo, who will be fresh and ready to prove it again.

The team is deep, deep, deep.

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