Bills fan stopping by

PP2 said:

It's interesting that Ryan just dismissed Lewis as a threat.. and furthermore said that he had already did his game plan for the Patriots a long time ago, which is somewhat a strange thing to say because the 4 TE package was just unrolled this past Thursday. Is he not going to account for that?

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Wait...you're seriously believing the things Rex said about his gameplan being done and not caring about Dion?

What a fascinating, ultra-literal world you must live in.

PP2 said:

I would assume that any successful gameplan against Brady would have to include route disruption or delay, successful chipping off the line, or at least slowing the game down because his release has been becoming quicker and quicker, which would completely negate the effect of any good DL, because it would be quite difficult to get in the backfield in less than 1.85 seconds unless you have a clear path. (Let's hope this doesn't happen!)

http://itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports...-release-leads-to-success-in-win-vs-steelers/

If Ryan truly planned his gameplan "a long time ago," this would mean this is a gameplan that ignores personnel and formations and is predicated on past performances and known factors (such as trying to neutralize Gronk or Edelman). Is this forward thinking? I don't really think so.

As good as Ryan is defense-wise, there are some aspects to his gameplanning that are just rote, and just shows that in some ways he hasn't evolved. Foremost is his tendency to disguise as a 4-3 under, but is in fact a 3-4 nickel or dime, and plays like one by putting the 5 tech in a 3 point stance. His main tendencies are mainly overload blitzing (either side) and his obsession for driving those through the A gaps, and that the further behind he gets, the more he'll dial up blitzes and start throwing the kitchen sink at you.

Conversely, if you are BB, you know that you have to give Ryan something on offense that he hasn't seen before or planned for, before. You also know that Ryan is inevitably going to gravitate to dime coverage in the backfield, something you can beat up on with a multiple TE package.

Conventional wisdom dictates that you play horizontal against an aggressive, blitzing defense and try to force the defense to spread out. But we all know BB isn't a conventional in-the-box thinker, and one of my predictions for this Sunday is that we'll see a great deal of multiple TE packages, but that they will play vertical. I.e., we'll see TE's run lot of seam routes, go routes, or at the least, routes with long stems. In effect, the TE's become WR's and the WR's become the TE's and stay behind and chip then run intermediate under routes. We know Gronk and Chandler have the speed to run vertical, and Ryan's excess use of the nickel and dime means that either or both will get covered by one or more DB's, especially if they split wide.

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Thanks for posting this! I always enjoy reading your detailed breakdowns of the Xs and Os. It is clear you truly know what you're talking about.

I really don't believe the Patriots secondary trumps the Bills receivers. Just because McCourty is playing center field does not mean that either Watkins or Harvin won't be getting deep. Chances are that both these receivers will have their way with the Patriots corners. In fact, I expect it. Let us not forget that the Bills also have a capable TE and McCoy is no slouch at catching the ball.

No, the Patriots will have their hands full and will have to depend on their front 7 putting pressure on the QB and pressure him into making mistakes.

The Bills OL is very good as well. Not sure it is a good match up for the Patriots, especially with Easley out.

The Patriots are going to have to depend on their receivers big time....but unlike the Seahawks, the Bills play a primaryily man-man defense....That means guys are going to have to beat jams at the line and get open. I would not expect to see Gronk line up uncovered...

Brady will have to get rid of the ball quick and the receivers will ahve to beat the bump and run coverage before the DL gets to Brady. This is something Brady has struggled with in the past against Ryan defenses and I believe the Bills have more talent on defense than last year's Jets team, the Patriots barely beat.

Make no mistake, this will be a battle and the X factor will be the play of Tyrod Taylor.

RichardHead said:

Kind of agree, but that last drive they were play with 3 deep safeties 25 yards off the line, so its no surprise they drove right down the field, it's not like they were playing their normal D. Yes, the pass for the touchdown was great, but they got down there with only 2 seconds left...all because of the deep 3 safeties giving up the passes to keep the play in front of them, which was the plan. This is why yardage given up (and even the final score) is a bit misleading. It's why you can't just look at stats and have to pay attention to what's happening on the field based on where the game is at.

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Point taken. But that doesn't change the fact that two missed FG's and an Offsides inside the two were part of the picture.

Since we are talking about what Rex "might" do on Sunday, let me add my 2 cents to the discussion.

1. Rex's basic philosophy stems from his father's 4-6 scheme.

2. Things Rex will always do, is, by alignment, look like he is going to blitz every time, even though he will actually blitz less than 50% of the time. His goal is to make you make a fast read and throw it INTO coverage. He feels even if the pressure doesn't get there, the QB eventually feels like he's pressured even when he's not. That DOES leave him open down the sidelines and seams deep.

He believes that even if you throw a great pass and make the completion the coverage will limit the YAC and force you to make long drives to score.

3. Rex's biggest win came in the 2010 season when he relatively shut down that great 2 TE offense the Pats had that year and he did it the exact opposite of what you'd expect. Every play he'd line up at least 5 men on the LOS, yet mostly rushed only 3. And instead of plying man D, he played a tight physical on the LOS, zone with often 6 men under and 2 deep.

The Pats failed to run hard at this defense, and Brady never took advantage of the RB's as a pass receiver. But the point is that strategy force Brady to constantly go to secondary receivers as his first choices were constantly running into coverage.

4. It's important to remember that after that loss, BB and Brady went on to score 30+ points in each of the next 5 meetings. So I think they solved the problem that caused some confusion on that ONE particular night.

5. What Rex can do with his overload and blitzing concepts is to confuse offensive lines. This is probably the WORST moment to have 3 rookies playing such big roles in the interior of the OL. This is a HUGE test for those kids, and I have to believe there will be breakdowns from time to time. especially when you are dealing with Darius, KWilliams, and Mario. Those are all elite players. (Jerry Hughes is nothing more than TBC on a good DL

6. In the end, Rex is going to rough up the receivers at the LOS, and then try to squeeze the mid-range zones by loading it up with players (5 or 6)

7. One great route to run against this kind of D is the cross and up. Welker used to get deep on this pattern and I'd like to see Edelman run it at least 3 times. Its a simple one. The WR just takes off downfield about 5 yards and starts to cross the field (like he'd a 100 times on film) and then on the 2nd step turn it up field on a seam route. On the other side run the TE up the seam and that will make the deep S to go to him, leaving lots of room for Edelman up the other seam. QB reads the S and throws the ball to the guy who he doesn't move to cover.

We don't run this pattern much and I don't know why because everytime I see it run, the guy is wide open.

8. Bottom line, I don't see Rex blitzing us much, even though he will show it every play. I see a lot of combination coverages in mid-range areas (6-12 yds downfield) that Brady traditionally completes a lot of his passes. I'm pretty sure he will run zone, because he doesn't want to get caught with these picks we run so well.

9. If I were him, I'd have Kyle Williams or Darius head on Andrews every play, and just beat the crap out him. It will be the worst match up the Pats have.

I couldn't help but think about what offensive strategy would work best against the Bills

1. Don't run right into the Bills. I would be looking to direct my run game right at the OLB's You double team the DE, pull the opposite G and run right at the OLB (Hughes). I would also sweep them, which would mean making sure you seal the front side from penetration, and have LGB getting outside and running into a soft LOS and beat up on some of those DB's.

2. The only time I'd have a running play up the middle would be draws or traps from the shot gun

3. I'd do a lot of play action passing, especially out of the shot gun. In fact I'd run most of my offense out the shotgun (both passing and run plays). I don't want Brady turning his back to the LOS (as he does on play action passes from under C) ever. I want him to see the rush from the snap.

4. Lots of shifts and motions on every play. First to free up a receiver, second to help define the coverage.

5. Like we did in Seattle, I don't expect us to run a lot of vertical routes, but the exception should be Gronk.

6. Gronk will likely see double coverage with a LB at the LOS to beat him up and a DB over the top. If we see this, Brady has to make them pay by throwing to the single coverage guys.

7. Rex will double BOTH Gronk and Edelman. He did this in 2012 when he doubled Gronk and Welker. THIS time Brady has to make them pay by throwing to the RB's and other receiver.

8. Tempo with be a big asset here. Not all the time, but by periodically going to top speed will wear out the DL as well as create mistakes.

9. Crowd noise will limit some things we'd like to do. Better to recognize that and sacrifice so versatility to make sure that on every offensive play, everyone is on the same page regardless of the crowd noise.

10. Make a commitment to run the ball 22 times and don't come off that. 22 times and I don't give a crap what the total is.

patfanken said:

7. Rex will double BOTH Gronk and Edelman. He did this in 2012 when he doubled Gronk and Welker. THIS time Brady has to make them pay by throwing to the RB's and other receiver.

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I am really hoping to see White/Cadet and Lewis on the field at the same time. This will drive the D crazy.

I'd also add that Brady can also get it to Chandler, who will most likely not be doubled.

patman12 said:

I am really hoping to see White/Cadet and Lewis on the field at the same time. This will drive the D crazy.

I'd also add that Brady can also get it to Chandler, who will most likely not be doubled.

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It would be funny if Chandler is a big reason why NE beats BUF on Sunday.

patfanken said:

6. Gronk will likely see double coverage with a LB at the LOS to beat him up and a DB over the top. If we see this, Brady has to make them pay by throwing to the single coverage guys.

7. Rex will double BOTH Gronk and Edelman. He did this in 2012 when he doubled Gronk and Welker. THIS time Brady has to make them pay by throwing to the RB's and other receiver.

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Wow. Doubling Gronk leaves Scott Chandler free to catch the ball against a smaller defender with a safety over the top having to choose early where he is going to lean. I do think Rex will double Gronk frequently, especially in the Red Zone.

Dedicating four defenders to double-team Edelman and Gronk places at least two receivers in single coverage, and if you go five wide, somebody working one-on-one against a linebacker. If you are right about this Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson and Scott Chandler should have career days. The Patriots have five capable receivers that Brady trusts. If LaFell were 100%, it could turn into a turkey shoot.

Frankly, I doubt we'll see that much double-teaming with Blount on the field. You have to close your gaps with linebackers or he break free to rumble in the secondary.

Rex knows Brady can read his defenses and gets the ball out fast. My guess is that you may see a couple of plays with two double teams, but mostly a tight man with help over the top.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

Thanks for posting this! I always enjoy reading your detailed breakdowns of the Xs and Os. It is clear you truly know what you're talking about.

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I'm no Unoriginal, BOR, Pats1 or Jays52, but I try.. thanks.

fnordcircle said:

Wait...you're seriously believing the things Rex said about his gameplan being done and not caring about Dion?

What a fascinating, ultra-literal world you must live in.

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What do you think? Does his ego allow for that sort of bluffing?

fnordcircle said:

Wait...you're seriously believing the things Rex said about his gameplan being done and not caring about Dion?

What a fascinating, ultra-literal world you must live in.

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i think its just that around here we are not use to coaches saying anything at all to the media.. So when one prattles on and on... We get confused.

PP2 said:

What do you think? Does his ego allow for that sort of bluffing?

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I think Rex's media persona is as much of a carefully crafted aspect of his coaching as Belichick's monotone and give no information approach. If Rex was coaching a team filled with vets and leadership I think he might have a different approach but with a team like the Jets or the Bills which lacks that he's opted to be the lightning rod as a way to take pressure off of his players.

Bills have the same defence that we shredded in Buffalo last year.

Their defence doesn't even compare to seatttles last year, their secondary is trash. Stephen Gilmore is the same guy the got torched by tyms and Stephen ******* hill LOL.

They will probably have multiple encroachments and 15 yard penalties because that's what Rex Ryan coached teams do.

Patriots: 38

Buffalo chicken: 6

JPsPats said:

Bills have the same defence that we shredded in Buffalo last year.

Their defence doesn't even compare to seatttles last year, their secondary is trash. Stephen Gilmore is the same guy the got torched by tyms and Stephen ******* hill LOL.

They will probably have multiple encroachments and 15 yard penalties because that's what Rex Ryan coached teams do.

Patriots: 38

Buffalo chicken: 6

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I see this as a much closer game. 27-21 type game. I also think it will come down to which front 7 does the most damage to the opposing OL and how the QB's handle the pressure.

Having the elite QB will payoff in the end but I still think it will be a tough battle.

I personally have the Bills finishing second in the AFCE and also making the playoffs (10-6). I am not sold on Tannehill and the Miami Dolphins.

Funny side note: I just finished a job in Canada and the owner is a Bills fan. He thought I would be rooting for the Colts but I made it clear that I hope that the Colts finish the season at 0-16. I told him before the game that Luck would most likely throw two picks in that game and that I thought he was the most overrated QB in the league right now. Anyways Luck lived up to his true claim to fame and I got a steak dinner out of it.

goheels22002 said:

Interesting comparisons. No big disagreements, but...

Bills WR vs. Pats Secondary - Edge Patriots. It's premature to call Sammy Watkins elite. Watkins has accomplished so little (6 career TDs) and no catches yet in 2015. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WatkSa00.htm
...
Coaching - definitely Belichick. I get that Rex is a good defensive mind, but what's he done by comparison? Rex has yet to demonstrate he can guide an offense or develop offensive players. If you want to compare Matt Patricia and Rex Ryan, that's fair. But until Rex gets over .500 as a head coach or wins the AFC, it's impossible to put him in Bill Belichick's class. I agree that he'll come up with some challenges for the offense, but I doubt they'll dominate the way they did against the Colts.

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Is true that Watkins productivity isn't what it could be, but his route running, speed, size, and hands are all excellent. If he had a quarterback as good as Brian Hoyer, his numbers would stand out. If I were building a team, there aren't many WRs that I'd pick over him.

As for coaching, I agree that BB is far better, but Ryan knows the Pats better than anyone and can put together a game plan to make things rather difficult. Add the Bills DL matchup against the rookies, and I think Tom has a long, frustrating day.

fnordcircle said:

I think Rex's media persona is as much of a carefully crafted aspect of his coaching as Belichick's monotone and give no information approach. If Rex was coaching a team filled with vets and leadership I think he might have a different approach but with a team like the Jets or the Bills which lacks that he's opted to be the lightning rod as a way to take pressure off of his players.

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While I agree that Ryan tries to be the lightning rod, I don't buy that it's a "carefully crafted persona" at all, because he's cut from the same cloth as his brother and father is. His father, you may remember, essentially talked and acted much worse than either of his sons, declaring over 20 years ago, when he was hired as the Oilers defense coordinator, that he was "here to win the superbowl this year." Naturally he ended up punching OC Kevin Gilbride on national TV later that season.

Rex used to be worse as well, and has since become much more careful about issuing guarantees. At least he hasn't punched anyone, yet.

I think there's a lot of truth to what Ryan said, as far as having a game plan for Brady ready for a long time. I furthermore bet you that he started planning the night he was hired as the Buffalo coach, knowing he now had one of the best DL in football to work with.

rexxar said:

Newbie question here.. can someone tell me why Gronk and Edelman aren't jammed at the line more? It seems like they get an open release to get a first down quite often.

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Different reasons. Gronk is big, but he is also strong (the fact he is also a good blocker means he can dominate the bigger guys, which also allows him to shed hits). Add deceptive quickness to that and you have players in chase with a height disadvantage. And teams do try to jam him. It often doesn't work. A good plan, as the Pats have done to Tony Gonzalez, is put two people on to prevent a release. That works, if you have the coverage for other receivers. Most teams wouldn't, and would pay for that plan.

With Edelman, he is smaller and quick, but also tough. His first steps are fast, so that makes him hard to hit (his punt returns can be scary because even with a player about to hit him he can dodge that first hit and break free). Miss a jam on him and he is wide open quickly in man coverage. I really can't say I have watched attempts to jam him at the line much, but given the fact the bulk of his receptions are short (he is not a burner on long passes generally), then it may be teams are unwilling to commit a coverage guy to the line when he can be picked up in the short pass zones. In order to make that work, the defender has to be able to keep up with him or he will get open enough to catch the ball.

Add to this Brady loves the open receiver, nothing more. You focus on one of these guys, and he kills you somewhere else. Add Chandler to the mix, and he will throw there 20 times a game if you let him. He will throw to Amendola or the running back. This offense is very complex (you learn that every receiver has multiple routes depending on what happens with the defense), so the receivers have to have a brain. That is what makes defending all this a challenge when executed properly.

fnordcircle said:

I think Rex's media persona is as much of a carefully crafted aspect of his coaching as Belichick's monotone and give no information approach. If Rex was coaching a team filled with vets and leadership I think he might have a different approach but with a team like the Jets or the Bills which lacks that he's opted to be the lightning rod as a way to take pressure off of his players.

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Make no mistake, while they may not have a leader with Brady's resume behind center, the team does not lack leadership. Mario and Kyle Williams have that locker room under their wings, and from what I heard were driving forces in Jerry Hughes taking what was perceived to be a pay cut, to resign with Buffalo.

evans555 said:

Make no mistake, while they may not have a leader with Brady's resume behind center, the team does not lack leadership. Mario and Kyle Williams have that locker room under their wings, and from what I heard were driving forces in Jerry Hughes taking what was perceived to be a pay cut, to resign with Buffalo.

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Be patient, under Rex's tutelage that locker room will have cancer growing in it within a couple of seasons.