Mildly Offensive Thoughts

It seems like it was only last year that the Patriots struggled on offense. Brady was deemed too old. His arm, not strong enough and people had figured out how to finally stop their offense. It was the defense carrying the team until the offense finally started to click and then all that discussion about Brady did a 180.

They were off to a slow start in 2013 as well with an overhaul of the WRs (LaFell, Amendola, Dobson, Thompkins, Edleman to main starter) and a certain TE (who shall not be named) robbing them of some talent.

This year, we seem to have only a couple new weapons (Dion Lewis & Scott Chandler) that needed to be educated and brought up to New England speed (speed of thought apparently). The rest have been in the system for 2+ years (with the exception of Cadet, we’ll have to wait and see) and known elements to Brady. Even Amendola seemed to shine in his role last year (accepting the role and spelling Julian Edleman on some returns and doing quite well down the playoff stretch).

Plus we have a Brady with a high level of motivation (probably higher than we even believe it is) and in midseason form against the Steelers. The Bills defense will give us a better gauge of where we’re at and provide BB with some coaching points.

What I saw last week

• Edleman and Brady are locked in a Vulcan mind-meld (11 catches on 12 targets for 97 yards), they share the same thoughts when looking at the field. Edleman is forcing DCs to take notice of his presence or beef up their resume for their next gig.

• Gronk is Gronk and while Brady only went 5 of 8 to him, 4 of those 5 catches were game changing plays and I’m sure most of us would take that production every week.

• Chandler & Lewis did well in their debut and had success against the Steelers. Time will tell us what type of Defense the Steelers have this year and it might only seem mediocre when compare to teams in the AFCE. It was a good start with limited plays that they should build from. Better than many players that come from the outside.

• Chandler & Gronk lined up left for 3 of TD catches, with Gronk getting 2 and Chandler getting 1. Gronk’s other TD came on a defensive breakdown by the still fuming Tomlin and his DC.

• How many of Lewis’s completions were the same comeback route on the left side? Not sure, but to run the same or similar pattern and keep having success says good things, just not sure how much it will mean next week. I just take it as a positive that Lewis is running the plays and each week he’ll get better.

What I expect against the Bills D

• Seems Rex Ryan lives for playing against BB and wins against their AFCE nemesis will go a long way in making the coach a fan favorite (and help extend his coaching career a year or two longer if post-season success is elusive, with some wins against the Patriots). I imagine he’ll reach into his bag of tricks to come up with a few extra plays the Patriots aren’t expecting. Meanwhile, BB will horde his until the game counts for more than an early season W.

• I’ll never claim to know what is in BB/McD’s head, but logic would say the run game is going to be weak this week. Could be 3rd down back situation on most of the downs.

• Plenty of 2+ TE sets

• Plenty of quick releases and hopefully Gronk or (maybe) Chandler down the seams. Would be interesting to see some screens with those 2 out front to give pause to an aggressive Rex defense. But, the fact that I mention that makes it almost 100% chance we don’t see it.

• Spread the O out and plenty of movement to give Brady better reads. Some crossing/rub routes and perhaps a couple offensive PI’s.

• I expect some issues with the Oline, but this will probably be one of the toughest games for them until they get settled.

• 3rd down conversions will be key and I expect our fair share of 3rd and longs (will be happy to be wrong)

Losing this game won’t hurt the Patriots and I expect a hard fought battle by both teams. I never root against the Pats, but don’t expect perfection either. If Buffalo and Rex are what we expect them to be, they should be able to put up a W. Either way, BB will win and keep improving the team.

Getting ahead early to put pressure on Tyrod is going to be key. I agree with your approach I think we abandon the run much like we did in the super bowl. I hate when we do that but its really traditionally what we do against good fronts dating back to Minnesota years ago.

Leave Tyrod in the pocket and see if he can beat NE.

Dagg said:

Getting ahead early to put pressure on Tyrod is going to be key. I agree with your approach I think we abandon the run much like we did in the super bowl. I hate when we do that but its really traditionally what we do against good fronts dating back to Minnesota years ago.

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Exactly the example I was thinking of when I suggested heavy shotgun in another thread.

I agree with all the above, but those are Defensive thoughts .

Though I guess offensive from a Buffalo perspective, but we're not Bills, we're PATRIOTS!.

Last season was LaFell's first season here, so he didn't have anything to do with the 2013 overhaul of the WRs.

It was actually good to see them address that weakness, which forced the team to use Thompkins and Dobson much more than they would've in 2013.

Nice breakdown. Thanks for posting.

Color me offended.

Alright, now let me go back and actually read your post.

Running the ball this week will be nothing more than an exercise to kill the clock for a play. The Bills will bite on playaction whether you're running or not. Rex's teams are that kind of team.

Hell, Pittsburgh bit on playaction all night Thursday. It's not like the Patriots were running the ball super-effectively.

Dagg said:

Getting ahead early to put pressure on Tyrod is going to be key. I agree with your approach I think we abandon the run much like we did in the super bowl. I hate when we do that but its really traditionally what we do against good fronts dating back to Minnesota years ago.

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The full dose of Blount talk carries no merit against a Great Front! This would be a good game for Aaron Dobson to breakout. Rex Ryan will not respect us outside the numers until someone burns them, if we can back em up on the outsides easy game for Brady. But if are ineffective and Ryan clogs the middle I feel for Gronk and Edelman every catch is going to hurt. The key against a Ryan Defense is to use the entire field not half of it.

What I like the most about this offense and the personnel on it is that it is match up proof. By this i mean that unlike 2007 there really isn't a clear way to attack it successfully. In 2007 you could beat it with a strong pass rush cause Moss would not have time to run his route and then you could dare them to beat you with Welker. But if you need him to move you down the field all game it just won't hold up. Maybe 1 drive but he will just take too many hits and Faulk basically plays the same game. Stopping it of course was easier said then down but it didn't have a lot of flexibility.

This team right now maybe doesn't have the most talented weapons in the NFL but there is not really a way to be matched up against it well. I think they stay healthy they are not really stoppable as long as Brady hits enough deep passes.

I think as long as you have a good 3rd down back (and they are carrying 3 3rd down specialist), A WR like Edelman that can get you a first and be a solid outside threat and Gronk you can basically force the flow of the game and are limited only by your mistakes.

Those 3 things are the heart of a match up proof offense IMO. You need a good supporting cast too (outside option Lafell/Dobson sure helps) another Big TE that can catch is welcome (Chandler) another slot guy that can turn it up field is nice (Amendola)

But they are the bonus. We saw last week if not for their own mistakes the lack of that other outside option can be worked around provided you have those 3 things. Amendola had a few good plays and could have had more but clearly is not the heart of the offense and benefits cause the other things were working so well.

PatsFan2 said:

The full dose of Blount talk carries no merit against a Great Front! This would be a good game for Aaron Dobson to breakout. Rex Ryan will not respect us outside the numers until someone burns them, if we can back em up on the outsides easy game for Brady. But if are ineffective and Ryan clogs the middle I feel for Gronk and Edelman every catch is going to hurt. The key against a Ryan Defense is to use the entire field not half of it.

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We have done just fine against Ryan defenses.

BobDigital said:

What I like the most about this offense and the personnel on it is that it is match up proof. By this i mean that unlike 2007 there really isn't a clear way to attack it successfully. In 2007 you could beat it with a strong pass rush cause Moss would not have time to run his route and then you could dare them to beat you with Welker. But if you need him to move you down the field all game it just won't hold up. Maybe 1 drive but he will just take too many hits and Faulk basically plays the same game. Stopping it of course was easier said then down but it didn't have a lot of flexibility.

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Makes me think of the term anti-fragile. Things that gain from disorder.

LaFell and getting Dobson to be consistent would certainly open things up all the way. Edleman and Amendola can probably play outside well enough (partly because of Brady's accuracy) to play the intermediate zones as well. i doubt Brady will hold the ball longer to attack the deep part of the field, but have intermediate/outside receivers would certainly be an added tool that Ryan will have to defend.

I doubt we'll see the 6th lineman formation for any power running plays. They might try it early and abandon it if the Bills D is too stout (and they seem to be a top 3 D, but we'll have to see how the season plays out).

Naturally in-game adjustments and perhaps well timed hurry up would help too. I'm not sure how much Ryan rotates his lineman. starting to feel like I'm throwing every possibility out there.

This will be a lot like the game vs rex's first game vs us with the jets . Our offense went uptempo all game and thats what they will do sunday. Still had only 16 pts to show unfortunately

Nice breakdown of rex's defense
http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2015/09/buffalo_bills_rex_ryan_bill_be.html

SVN said:

This will be a lot like the game vs rex's first game vs us with the jets . Our offense went uptempo all game and thats what they will do sunday. Still had only 16 pts to show unfortunately

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I think that we might start in the shotgun and run a high tempo first drive.

AndyJohnson said:

We have done just fine against Ryan defenses.

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We've done well against all defenses, just happens we have the GOAT QB/Coach.

Reading about some of the defensive alignments that the Bills used against the Colts, it seems we'll try to diagnose as much of their alignment pre-snap as possible. so, spreading them out and movement should be part of our game plan.

The Bills will use lots of movement to try and confuse Brady (typical Ryan with a semi-amoeba-like defense) and he even had DL people at linebacker depth and would move them to an advantageous spot prior to the snap (or let them try to penetrate/overload a side)

RelocatedPatFan said:

We've done well against all defenses, just happens we have the GOAT QB/Coach.

Reading about some of the defensive alignments that the Bills used against the Colts, it seems we'll try to diagnose as much of their alignment pre-snap as possible. so, spreading them out and movement should be part of our game plan.

The Bills will use lots of movement to try and confuse Brady (typical Ryan with a semi-amoeba-like defense) and he even had DL people at linebacker depth and would move them to an advantageous spot prior to the snap (or let them try to penetrate/overload a side)

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Again, we have handled all of this. The Ryan scheme is old news. Sure he has some players who can make plays, but his scheme has been figured out, as evidenced by his record in NY. When he had Revis, he had a good D, without him they were mediocre at best.

AndyJohnson said:

Again, we have handled all of this. The Ryan scheme is old news. Sure he has some players who can make plays, but his scheme has been figured out, as evidenced by his record in NY. When he had Revis, he had a good D, without him they were mediocre at best.

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What would really screw Brady up is if the Bills came out in a base 4-3 or something and just played Cover-2. Brady would spend the whole first half calling protections against ghosts.

TommyD4207 said:

What would really screw Brady up is if the Bills came out in a base 4-3 or something and just played Cover-2. Brady would spend the whole first half calling protections against ghosts.

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No he wouldn't, he would just shred it.
You act like Brady is surprised by what Ryan does. That's just not the case.
Ryan takes risks to get rushers free. Any DC can do that, but most don't like that level of risk, which is the one that has his defenses ranked 19th to 24th in points allowed the last 4 years. Note that BBs defenses have not been that bad in any season since he arrived here, and in fact in all of his years in the NFL he has been worse than 17th ONE time, and that was the debacle year in Cleveland in 1995, where he was 20th.
But that Rex, he is a real defensive genius.

TommyD4207 said:

What would really screw Brady up is if the Bills came out in a base 4-3 or something and just played Cover-2. Brady would spend the whole first half calling protections against ghosts.

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As Belichick has said, NO ONE plays cover 2 against the patriots. With Edelman, Gronkowski and Amendola in the slot, this is simply not a reasonable defense against the patriots.