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0.2 psi and the devastation it has wrought


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ivanvamp

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A quick review of some of the facts:

(1) The Patriots' footballs in the AFCCG were measured, on average, either 11.49 or 11.11 psi, depending on which gauge was used. That's a difference of 0.38 psi, on average, between the two gauges.

(2) If you go with the higher (logo) gauge, the footballs were measured precisely within the range that the Wells report itself said the Ideal Gas Law would have predicted. If you go with the lower (non-logo) gauge, then lo and behold, it turns out that the Colts were playing with under inflated footballs too, as three of the four Colts' footballs were measured at 12.35 psi or lower. On average between the two gauges, the Patriots' 11 footballs were measured at 11.30, at the lower end, but within range, of what the Ideal Gas Law would have predicted.

(3) If we assume that the non-logo gauge was used, then the Patriots' footballs were approximately 0.2 psi under inflated, on average. 0.2 psi. Now, ESPN's sports science did a story on this and three very important facts came out:

· That ball (under-inflated by 2 psi) leaving Brady’s hand at 50 MPH and traveling 20 yards would arrive at the receiver .003 per second slower. In other words, Advantage: Defensive back.

· About that argument that the lower pressure makes the ball extra squishy and therefore easier to grip? The compression on a football measures one millimeter.

· The weight difference between a 10.5 PSI and a 12.5 PSI ball is less than the weight of a dollar bill.

Think about that for a moment. They did the story based on 2 psi difference. Why did they assume that number? We'll get to that in the next point. But the difference of 2 psi in a football is about the weight of a dollar bill. How much does a dollar bill weigh? According to the US Bureau of Engraving and Printing, a dollar bill weighs about 4 grams. But the Pats' footballs, using the non-logo gauge, were not 2 psi low. They were 0.2 psi lower than what the Ideal Gas Law would have predicted. That means the footballs Brady was throwing were, on average, 0.4 grams lighter than they "should" have been. Four-tenths of a gram. This is the approximate weight of a toothpick. No joke.

All of this is over the difference of the weight of a toothpick.

Moreover, 0.2 psi is LESS than the discrepancy between the two gauges. So the margin of error between the two gauges is greater than the 0.2 psi the lower gauge gave as the difference between the Patriots' footballs and the lower limit predicted by the Ideal Gas Law.

Unbelievable.

(4) Now, to answer the question in the previous point about why ESPN's sports science assumed a 2 psi difference. This is because of Mortensen's tweet and subsequent story that 11 of the 12 Patriots' footballs were measured at 2 psi under the limit. This is what set the entire NFL world ablaze in fury. It was backed up by a letter that the NFL sent the Patriots along the same lines. So when Brady had his awkward press conference before the Super Bowl, it was THIS understanding that he had in mind. No wonder he was befuddled, wondering just what the heck was going on, and why he said he didn't *think* he was cheating.

As we know, that tweet and story was egregiously wrong. And the NFL knew it. In fact, they later told the Patriots the correct numbers - a long, long time later - but only under the condition that they not make the actual numbers public. Earlier, before the Super Bowl, Mike Florio pressed the NFL five times to give him the real numbers to report in the Super Bowl pregame and the NFL refused. So the NFL leaked to Mortensen erroneous numbers, did not correct it, refused to give Florio the correct numbers, and then when they finally gave the Patriots the correct numbers, the Patriots weren't allowed to make those numbers public. Why on earth would the NFL be so interested in false, misleading, and utterly damning information to remain out there, when they had every opportunity to correct it?

Tom Brady may end up losing this case and may lose 4 games and nearly $2 million, and suffer incalculable damage to his reputation and legacy. And the Patriots franchise lost $1 million, and 1st and 4th round draft picks in 2016. All over false information spread deliberately by the NFL, and over 0.2 pounds of pressure in a football. The weight of a toothpick.

There has never been a more ridiculous set of circumstances in sports history.
 
It's definitely one of the darkest chapters in NFL history

But all this goes away if the Pats win Super Bowl 50.
 
It's definitely one of the darkest chapters in NFL history

But all this goes away if the Pats win Super Bowl 50.

Super Bowl 49 was as sweet as it gets. And yet....if the Pats win this year's title, it will be even sweeter.
 
"Moreover, 0.2 psi is LESS than the discrepancy between the two gauges. So the margin of error between the two gauges is greater than the 0.2 psi the lower gauge gave as the difference between the Patriots' footballs and the lower limit predicted by the Ideal Gas Law."

^This
 
The margin of error on just a single gauge is about +/- 0.2 psi
 
God, I hope someone made this exact argument in front of the judge. This whole thing makes me sick. The fact that people can't understand this greatly reduces my faith in all mankind. And I am not kidding.
 
It's also why ESPN and everyone else was passing around footballs that differed in pressure by 2 psi. The difference was still hard to tell for most people, but they trotted out the line "this is his job! He would know!"

2 psi was because of the Mort lie.

Imagine if they re-did all of those comparisons with footballs that differed in pressure by 0.2 psi!

Or even barring that, imagine also if one of those knuckleheads had half a brain and said "hey, this football that I'm holding here in my hands that is at 12.5 psi, let's go put it in the refrigerator in the break room for two hours. Then let's check the psi".
 
The margin of error on just a single gauge is about +/- 0.2 psi

precisely

If anyone doubts this, think of the ONE INSTANCE in the Wells report where we know of multiple measurements of the same ball in a short time frame by one person using one gauge. This was the ball intercepted by the Colts. On page 70 of the Wells report:

"The pressure of the Patriots ball that had been intercepted by the Colts was separately tested three times and the measurements—11.45, 11.35 and 11.75 psi, respectively— were written on athletic tape that had been placed on the ball for identification"

Take those three numbers, 11.45, 11.35 and 11.75. Go to this web site or any other that calculates the statistics for you:

https://www.easycalculation.com/statistics/standard-deviation.php

Put in those numbers & what do you get?

mean = 11.51
standard deviation (SD)= 0.21

(many assumptions here...normal distribution, etc....) but you'd need about 2 SDs (0.42) to give you a 95% confidence range. That is, based upon those measurements, you can be 95% sure that the true pressure is in the range of about 11.1-11.9 psi.

the inherent error totally dwarfs the magnitude of the alleged infraction
 
And the Patriots franchise lost $1 million, and 1st and 4th round draft picks in 2016.

Point of order - The Pats lose their first round pick in 2016 and a fourth round pick in 2017.
 
· The weight difference between a 10.5 PSI and a 12.5 PSI ball is less than the weight of a dollar bill.

Think about that for a moment. They did the story based on 2 psi difference. Why did they assume that number? We'll get to that in the next point. But the difference of 2 psi in a football is about the weight of a dollar bill. How much does a dollar bill weigh? According to the US Bureau of Engraving and Printing, a dollar bill weighs about 4 grams. But the Pats' footballs, using the non-logo gauge, were not 2 psi low. They were 0.2 psi lower than what the Ideal Gas Law would have predicted. That means the footballs Brady was throwing were, on average, 0.4 grams lighter than they "should" have been. Four-tenths of a gram. This is the approximate weight of a toothpick. No joke.

Just a nit, but if we're all assuming IGL is responsible, then can we stop with the "balls had less air in them"? The IGL just says the force exerted by the air inside the ball was less due to the change in atmospheric conditions. The amount of air, and the corresponding mass, does not change. If some idiot on ESPN wants to blather on about balls with less air, let him blather on, but we should be making accurate and correct statements here on patsfans. I mean, this is where I come for reliable science discussions.

Oh, and in spite of that little nit, the post is excellent.

Edit - on second thought, that nit was probably unnecessary. Our side is saying IGL but the other side is saying an inserted needle released some air, in which case you are looking at about 4 grams less weight. But that's for the whole 2 pounds less psi. I don't know what the mort they are teaching in science classes these days, but the general reaction seems to be that according to Exponent, IGL does not account for all of the decreased psi, therefore we ignore IGL altogether. So numnuts went into that bathroom not to release 0.2 psi but realeased 2 psi of air, IGL be damned. I think we should start pressuring someone with the Patriots to do the live experiments during all home games. F the league if they don't like it but the public really really needs to be educated, and the Patriots should see this as a community service.
 
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The margin of error on just a single gauge is about +/- 0.2 psi
Don't want to get flamed here because the overall OP was fantastic, but Exponent's analysis does include the error bars (I think it was something like 11.31-11.52 or thereabouts). So the 11.11 is 0.2 away from the low end of the range, not a specific data point.

Regardless, great post ivanvamp. Haters will still talk about Dorito Dink and destroyed cell phones but this really puts it all in perspective.
 
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i precisely brought most of these points to haters during pickup basketball. they are Montana worshipping niners fan -

this is what they say

1. stop making stories up
2. don't believe everything you hear
3. you love brady/pats so much it is clouding your judgement
4. you guys drafted aaron hernandez and supported him. karma
5. don't cheat for decade. it will bite your ass like now
 
i precisely brought most of these points to haters during pickup basketball. they are Montana worshipping niners fan -

this is what they say

1. stop making stories up
2. don't believe everything you hear
3. you love brady/pats so much it is clouding your judgement
4. you guys drafted aaron hernandez and supported him. karma
5. don't cheat for decade. it will bite your ass like now

Mike Francesa on WFAN a month or so ago, as is his wont, ripped the Patriots, talking about the "litany" of things they've done against the rules. He mentioned Spygate, Deflategate, and said, "the list goes on and on".

I want to know....what, really, is on the "list"? Spygate was hugely overblown, but yes, they did something they shouldn't have, and suffered an ENORMOUS penalty for that. So that's one. What else? This one DIDN'T EVEN HAPPEN. But what else? What else have they done? What else is on the "list"?
 
Mike Francesa on WFAN a month or so ago, as is his wont, ripped the Patriots, talking about the "litany" of things they've done against the rules. He mentioned Spygate, Deflategate, and said, "the list goes on and on".

I want to know....what, really, is on the "list"? Spygate was hugely overblown, but yes, they did something they shouldn't have, and suffered an ENORMOUS penalty for that. So that's one. What else? This one DIDN'T EVEN HAPPEN. But what else? What else have they done? What else is on the "list"?


it's unfortunate. spygate alone has so many 'list' by itself. taping the locker room, taping warner's house, and hell we probably wiretapped coaches phones.

and we have so many little 'lists'. we got caught 'cheating' during ravens game. add that to the list. goodell destroyed the evidence. add it to the list. we manipulate injury reserves. add it to the list.

we are the 'rule benders'.
we are the 'system manipulators'.
we are the 'smartest kid with a cheat sheet'.
we are the *

i'm honestly tired of this crap.
 
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