Brady case predictions

Brady won't settle because the NFL/Brady won't budge about Brady admitting some kind of knowledge about Deflategate.

Unfortunately there is noway Brady can win this, I didn't see their attorney attacking how Rodgers violated the CBA almost at all, they focus how the process was unfair. Judge Berman was being hard on the NFL because they want them to settle, because he know the process was unfair but he can't see how all of this breaks the CBA. Sorry guys, I'm being a realist here.

However if he fillies for defamation, I can see him winning. I'll would ask for a enormous amount of money, Trump said 150 Million, I'll said more like 500 million. If they present it right, I believe that he could win the full amount.

Except berman already presented how itbroke the cba by withholding pash. And lack of notice

And how the league already collectively bargained for a fine for equipment violations not a suspension

patsfanboy said:

Unfortunately there is noway Brady can win this, I didn't see their attorney attacking how Rodgers violated the CBA almost at all

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Is this serious? If Kessler would have made that a point in his argument to Berman, Berman would have completely eviscerated him in open court.

patsfanboy said:

Unfortunately there is noway Brady can win this, I didn't see their attorney attacking how Rodgers violated the CBA almost at all,

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That's irrelevant, plus Rogers didn't violate the CBA anyways. Further, he did not do what Brady is accused of doing, which makes it even more irrelevant.

patsfanboy said:

they focus how the process was unfair.

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That's about all they can focus on. They are not allowed to litigate the facts since the Federal Arbitration Act doesn't allow arbitration awards to be overturned on the grounds of a judge coming to a different conclusion about the facts than the arbitrator did.

patsfanboy said:

Brady won't settle because the NFL/Brady won't budge about Brady admitting some kind of knowledge about Deflategate.

Unfortunately there is noway Brady can win this, I didn't see their attorney attacking how Rodgers violated the CBA almost at all, they focus how the process was unfair. Judge Berman was being hard on the NFL because they want them to settle, because he know the process was unfair but he can't see how all of this breaks the CBA. Sorry guys, I'm being a realist here.

However if he fillies for defamation, I can see him winning. I'll would ask for a enormous amount of money, Trump said 150 Million, I'll said more like 500 million. If they present it right, I believe that he could win the full amount.

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Berman: "I believe some arbitration awards have been vacated" because a witness was not allowed to be called without explanation.

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https://twitter.com/ppvsrb/status/634045057981616128

To say that there's no way Brady can win this is to ignore the judge's own words.

bad feeling for some reason.
nothing has gone our way during this charade..

Personally, I've just accepted that there's a 4 game suspension, so anything less than that will be great, but I'm not holding my breath.

Here are the thoughts of some1 who has followed this case closely.

1) There is still a chance of settlement -- but only if the NFL climbs down from its high horse of demanding confession+suspension. It will only come after Judge Berman reveals to the parties that he is indeed going to vacate Goodell's arb. Award. Faced with the possibility of a broad-based defeat -- and precedent --in a Federal Court the NFL itself selected-- they may well be forced into a settlement where Brady admits that he should have been more cooperative and is stuck w/ a fine. Brady may accept this to get finality. Such an outcome however will be a huge defeat for the NFL and Goodell's rule as a Despot -- and it will widely be seen by the owners and NFLPA as such. However, should the NFL continue its unfathomable gamble....

2) Judge Berman will rule -- and decisively -- to vacate Goodell's arbitration decision on 3 grounds

a) Fundamental unfairness and inconsistency of standards employed in evaluating violation of deflated balls. NFL had no policies to check inflation/deflation of game balls-- ie. no protocols that could be relied on. Also site unfairness of disallowing Jeff Pash -- touted by NFL as co-investigator w/ Wells and admitted editor of the Wells Report-- from testifying and possibly disallowing investigation notes to be shared w/ Brady's counsel

b) Importantly I expect Berman will rule that Goodell was a partial arbitrator. He will site Goodell's "quantum leap" in characterizing Brady's involvement in deflategate from "generally aware" to actively scheming as part of a conspiracy (of dunces) to carry it out. That was well beyond the scope of the original charge being appealed by Brady. There are other pointers to partiality that Berman could site (mischaracterizing Brady's testimony) -- but the finding of partiality is very significant. It follows that Goodell could not rehear any new arbitration proceedings involving Brady. The NFL if it ever held another arbitration would need to seek a genuine neutral arbitrator

c) Points A + B above will mean that if Berman is upheld by the inevitable NFL appeal to the Circuit Court --Goodell's suspension is vacated and a brand new arbitration proceeding w/ a neutral arbitrator will ensue. However, I expect Berman to also rule that Goodell disregarded the specific provisions of the CBA especially the CB rule that specifies a fine for first-time offense involving "equipment violations that affect competitive integrity of the game" He could also site the lack of notice of a new standard for NFL misconduct -- namely "more likely than not Brady was "generally aware" -- a standard that Wells made up. This finding would doom NFL's case against Brady-- as there could not be a cure for lack of notice.

I know that there are many lawyers who argue that the arbitrator is entitled to a lot of deference. But in this case the NFLPA on behalf of Brady has established multiple grounds for vacating the award. The ramifications for the NFL -- should they fail to settle -- will be echoing for years.

Judge Berman will call the courtroom to order tomorrow, listen to statements by the various ambulance chasers, and issue his ruling. Before he is finished explaining his reasons for vacating the "award," you'll be able to get 8-to-1 odds against Roger Goodell being the NFL Commissioner when Stephen Gostkowski kicks off to start Super Bowl 50.

Gronkowski123 said:

bad feeling for some reason.
nothing has gone our way during this charade..

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Agree and dislike.

Gronkowski123 said:

bad feeling for some reason.
nothing has gone our way during this charade..

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You mean, "Nothing has gone 'our' way during this charade, with the exception of pretty much every single thing that's happened since the parties set foot in Judge Berman's court room", right?

Deus Irae said:

You mean, "Nothing has gone 'our' way during this charade, with the exception of pretty much every single thing that's happened since the parties set foot in Judge Berman's court room", right?

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The two hearings so far literally could not have gone any better short of Goodell taking the stand, admitting that he was wrong, and committing hari kari. There is really nothing to complain about.

I think tomorrow is going to be more QA from the judge. We need to see who he badgers more tomorrow. He may change track . I personally think he will issue a deadline saying he is going to rule sept 3rd barring a settlement setting a hard deadline. Contrary to popular opinion , I think this gets settled by sept 2/3rd.

Gronkowski123 said:

bad feeling for some reason.
nothing has gone our way during this charade..

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Only this time Goodell is not in charge............

What I do know is that there will be an appeal filed with the Second Circuit by the end of the week.

Prediction: No ruling tomorrow. Judge Berman will drop more hints that the NFL needs to settle and gives them four more days as he work on his ultimate decision.

sb1 said:

He has 3 years to file it in Mass. court.

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Great. So he can say or leak that there will be no defamation suit until next February or so.

If I'm exactly right about the points ...

Fencer said:

4. For remedy I think Berman will vacate, and allow a re-hearing with a neutral arbitrator that stays inside his guidelines. That's basically a total win for Brady. However ...

5. ... I think Berman will leave the door open for a new disciplinary proceeding around alleged ball deflation in other games than the AFCC. This will be a corollary of his determination that the Wells Report was only about one game.

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... there still will be room for plenty of settlement negotiations and leaked negotiating positions ahead. The league will claim that Brady is terrified of #5, and that he will want to settle to avoid having his guilt exposed.

Deus Irae said:

https://twitter.com/ppvsrb/status/634045057981616128

To say that there's no way Brady can win this is to ignore the judge's own words.

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This, and other examples, really can't be ignored. Berman was actually doing some of Kessler's work for him.

And this wasn't him playing Devil's Advocate (which is typically relevant in appeals - not this situation)

Berman has stated that there were lapses of procedure (and fairness) quantum leaps of assumptions, and other failings - all of which have been entered and accepted as factual by the NFL - all of which can be grounds to vacate or otherwise punt this back to a truly independent arbitrator.

The NFL's position is that it doesn't matter how unfair they are - or perhaps even if they didn't follow procedure - their position is that THEY brought this case to the Judge simply to have him affirm that there is NO ROLE for the Federal Courts in the NFL/NFLPA CBA's disciplinary system.

There's a lot of chutzpah involved in those actions - and by all indications Berman does NOT agree with that interpretation and has gone out of his way to affirm the failings of the case simply during the public proceedings. No way he now shows the US Justice system to be one in which there's nothing anyone can do about an injustice.

I have no doubt he's finding in favor of Brady - it's really just a question of HOW he does that and whether or not he publicly chastises and NFL that's making his and many other Federal Court judges lives far busier than they should be (that, in my experience, is how many judges think)

This is all pure speculation on my part, but I see dual motive in the League taking these actions. Numerous owners had previously said they were worried about Goodell's perception following the Ray Rice Videogate loss, not to mention Peterson, etc.

Goodell needed a scandal in which he'd be the good guy and the NFL desperately needed a win in Federal Court and were prepared if not planning to circumvent the Minn district court and Judge Doty because they also needed a rare win to affirm the Commissioner's ability to dictate player punishment in their interpretation of the CBA (fairness be damned)

But they bungled the sting on numerous levels. I'm not sure if they purposefully left the refs out of it for plausible deniability, but I don't think Kensil was counting on the fact that the PSI wasn't truly recorded. No matter - they were prepared to leak purposefully false information from the start no doubt. I just don't think they expected any degree of scrutiny over their findings and they CERTAINLY didn't expect the appeals transcripts to come out.

I expect a big loss for the League (which may or may not mean a big win for Brady since technically Berman isn't ruling on whether footballs were deflated) - but I'd be shocked if Berman didn't re-iterate his earlier points that the league has an obligation to have a fair process, as well as follow the process and the NFL did neither.

I think Berman wants to make an example of the NFL, wasting the Courts time across the country because they refuse to have a fair process. This is just the tip of the iceberg of disputed cases if the NFL continues it's embarrassing and corrupt conduct, and Berman knows it.

I won't be surprised to see him either vacate or just grant a stay on Brady's four game suspension - with the intent of allowing the Wells Investigation notes to be public and reviewed by the Patriots as well as the right to interview Pash, in sending this back to a truly independent arbitrator (who I think Berman is confident would affirm what a joke the NFL's process and penalty is)

So overall, file this one in a grossly misplayed strategic move by Goodell and the NFL in terms of challenging Brady and the NFLPA over this, especially if Berman effectively publicly ostracizes the NFL into providing a truly indepedent arbitrator to overlook his appeals.

One thing is certain - no matter how badly Berman chastises the NFL (and yes, I know that's far from certain but I think it will happen) the NFL will continue to posture as if they knew Brady cheated and they were just trying to do the right thing.

One still needs to question Goodell's standing - he's been publicly outed as a liar and his misplayed an important hand on behalf of the owners and the league - and I think even previous supporters among the owners have done their fair share of face palms over some of his moves and posturing.

But with any luck the Wells interview notes WILL be released, as this has been rumored for awhile and it could make sense for Berman to punt this back to a new independent arbitrator while giving Brady appropriate access to information.

And I think if/when THAT comes out you're going to see the humiliation of the league taken to a whole new level

From Berman's perspective that may be enough to force the NFL into creating an improved player discipline policy which won't clog up the courts, which ultimately is Berman's true goal.