And then there's this guy (our new safety, Jordan Richards)

Whom we've been only paying a little attention to.

http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2015/08/jordan_richards_new_england_pa_2.html

Wouldn't it be nice if all of the primal screams from draft night turn out to have been misguided, and we end up with an Ed Reed type of player?

Even if he has the smarts of Ed Reed, he is a shadow of Reed athletically.

skinnydog said:

Even if he has the smarts of Ed Reed, he is a shadow of Reed athletically.

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Which I will take all day long. Especially for a 2nd rounder

skinnydog said:

Even if he has the smarts of Ed Reed, he is a shadow of Reed athletically.

Click to expand...

So are the majority of NFL safeties, but that doesn't make them worthless. In fact, there's a serious shortage of quality safeties, and if Richards is even half-decent, that's more than most teams can say.

I think the majority of fans would agree that Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Devin McCourty, Tashaun Gipson, and Eric Weddle fit in everyone's top 10 somewhere. Then who are the next 5 safeties? Maybe Antoine Bethea? Probably put Harrison Smith or Glover Quin there over the potential of Eric Berry and Eric Reid, but they belong in the conversation. Some put TJ Ward high based on rep but he certainly didn't play like it last season. But whatever order and selection, the lists more or less look something like that.

That means maybe 1/3 of the league can say they have an above-average safety, with Seattle being the only team with two quality guys. If Richards ends up even as the 50th-best safety in the league, he'd be a starter on many teams.

Did you know Sergio Brown started 8 ****ING GAMES for the Colts? Ex-Patriot James Ihedigbo started 13 games for the Lions after starting 16 for the Ravens the year before? The NFC East Champ Cowboys started someone named Barry Church the entire season. Mike Mitchell started every game for the Steelers. The Ravens started a combination of Darian Stewart, Matt Elam, and Will Hill...Elam is the only guy there I've heard of, and he's been a bit of a bust since being drafted. And these are some of the the PLAYOFF teams. I'm not even going to look at whatever was going on in Jacksonville or Tennessee or Tampa.

In fact, you can tell the state of safeties in the game because Brandon Meriweather just got a contract for the Redskins. Seriously.

So if Jordan only develops into an okay safety, he'd still be an upgrade on a looooooooooooot of teams. Just because he's not going to be a 1st-ballot HOFer doesn't mean he has no value.

Which guy would you draft?

edit: Of course combine numbers can be overrated in evaluating a player. But people seem to be making a big deal of Richards' numbers anyway... so I thought I'd post the following, which I found interesting.

TBR said:

Which guy would you draft?

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That's useful, and wizardly of you.

The point of the article, and I suspect our coach's thinking, is that anticipation is incredibly valuable, which is often overlooked in this era of fantasy FB, Madden, and internet available stats.

Ed Reed was playing a very, very good safety when his peak athleticism was well behind him.

I wish I could find the quote where Belichick says he'd rather have a slightly slower player who does not take any wrong steps over a quicker player who takes them. That quote had something to do with rodney Harrison as I remember it.

TBR said:

Which guy would you draft?

Spoiler: Spoiler - Click here to see who's who

Click to expand...

i mean... combine stats certainly don't tell the story with kam. i know you're making a point, but try one of those with something like jerry rice vs aj green

gitgronked82 said:

i mean... combine stats certainly don't tell the story with kam. i know you're making a point, but try one of those with something like jerry rice vs aj green

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We know that but the reality is that Richards' negatives, supposedly, are his lack of athleticism. If the mental part can help the athleticism play up maybe we'll have something. Richards isn't a combine freak, other than his three cone.

gitgronked82 said:

but try one of those with something like jerry rice vs aj green

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First 4 years:

Jerry Rice - 304 rec, 4881 yds, 49 TDs
AJ Green - 329 rec, 4874 yds, 35 TDs

It's closer than you think. Rice played for 20 years, after all.

TommyD4207 said:

First 4 years:

Jerry Rice - 304 rec, 4881 yds, 49 TDs
AJ Green - 329 rec, 4874 yds, 35 TDs

It's closer than you think. Rice played for 20 years, after all.

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in a very, very different era. he was also known for being less than stellar at the very beginning of his career. I still have moss #1 all time, but we can all assume that rice and green are on prettttty different levels

gitgronked82 said:

in a very, very different era. he was also known for being less than stellar at the very beginning of his career. I still have moss #1 all time, but we can all assume that rice and green are on prettttty different levels

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Through 4 years, they look about the same to me on paper.

Again, Rice played 20 years, and we have the benefit of hindsight. Also, Rice played the majority of his career with 2 Hall of Fame QBs (Montana, Young), and another who was a Pro-Bowler in Rich Gannon.

AJ Green has had The Mediocre Ginger throwing to him.

You're probably right, Rice is probably going to end up being better than AJ Green, but there's no way you could make that determination through the actual production in their first four seasons.

TommyD4207 said:

Through 4 years, they look about the same to me on paper.

Again, Rice played 20 years, and we have the benefit of hindsight. Also, Rice played the majority of his career with 2 Hall of Fame QBs (Montana, Young), and another who was a Pro-Bowler in Rich Gannon.

AJ Green has had The Mediocre Ginger throwing to him.

You're probably right, Rice is probably going to end up being better than AJ Green, but there's no way you could make that determination through the actual production in their first four seasons.

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i believe rice's production increased after his first few years. i may be wrong, but i thought so.

either way, i could have picked someone better than aj green. look at DHB or someone

gitgronked82 said:

i believe rice's production increased after his first few years. i may be wrong, but i thought so.

either way, i could have picked someone better than aj green. look at DHB or someone

Click to expand...

No it's perfect. Rice was criticized for running a SLOW 4.65 forty prior to his drafting.

TBR said:

Which guy would you draft?

Spoiler: Spoiler - Click here to see who's who

Click to expand...

Really interesting. And it's a great reminder that players don't always meet their draft day expectations. Chancellor went in the 5th round, and I'm sure many Richards bashers feel that's where he went. And maybe he should have. But in a re-draft, Kam would be a 1st rounder. Brady certainly hasn't played like your average 6th-rounder either. Can't forget Kiper complaining about the Gronk pick either. "Not real fluid, a little stiff in terms of his movement, doesn't adjust to the poorly thrown ball all that well..."

Forget the draft gurus, the talking heads, they have no ****ing clue. People need to let the kid prove himself on the field and quit pre-judging players before they've even played in a real game.

skinnydog said:

Even if he has the smarts of Ed Reed, he is a shadow of Reed athletically.

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Ed Reed ran a 4.57 40 @ the combine. Richards ran a 4.59 40 @ his pro day. Richards has nearly identical athletic traits as well as size and weight to Reed.

That is not to say he will be anything close to Ed Reed as a player but either way it won't be due to lack of athleticism.

TBR said:

Which guy would you draft?

Spoiler: Spoiler - Click here to see who's who

Click to expand...

Chancellor is 6'3" 231lbs that is what makes him so effective is his size not his athleticism.

betterthanthealternative said:

That's useful, and wizardly of you.

The point of the article, and I suspect our coach's thinking, is that anticipation is incredibly valuable, which is often overlooked in this era of fantasy FB, Madden, and internet available stats.

Ed Reed was playing a very, very good safety when his peak athleticism was well behind him.

Click to expand...

Ed Reed's instincts bordered on clairvoyance.

Great players possess that.

We have no idea if Richards has that ability.

What I do know is that BB has a major man crush on him.

TommyD4207 said:

You're probably right, Rice is probably going to end up being better than AJ Green, but there's no way you could make that determination through the actual production in their first four seasons.

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Just totally different eras, and Rice's third year was in a shortened season due to labor issues. Let's compare their second years in the league.

In 1986, his second year, Rice had 86 receptions, 1570 yards, and 15 TDs. He was second in the league in receptions, first in yards, and first in TDs. By comparison, in Green's second year, he had 97 receptions, 1350 yards, and 11 TDs. He was 7th in the league in receptions, 10th in yards, and tied for 4th in TDs.

In 1986, only 7 players had 80 or more receptions (0 had 100); 16 players had 1000 yards (1, Rice, had 1500); 7 had 10 or more TDs. In 2012, 17 players had more than 80 receptions (6 had 100), 20 had 1000 yards (3 had more than 1500), and 10 had 10 or more TDs.

In Rice's third year, he set an NFL record for touchdowns with 22 in a 12 game season.

The insane thing about Rice when comparing him to someone like AJ Green, a top-10 or so receiver in the current era, is exactly that Rice put up better statistics in an era when the average receiving stats were substantially lower across the board.

TommyD4207 said:

First 4 years:

Jerry Rice - 304 rec, 4881 yds, 49 TDs
AJ Green - 329 rec, 4874 yds, 35 TDs

It's closer than you think. Rice played for 20 years, after all.

Click to expand...

Yeah but is this taking into account stickum or what?