Gibson and Harper

JackBauer said:

Harper reminds me a bit of Jabar Gaffney.

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I was thinking the same exact thing.

JMC00 said:

I've liked what I've seen from Harper but think people are falling into that preseason trap again.

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Agreed. The PS was made for guys like him, but he has a good shot at making the squad next year.

Oswlek said:

Agreed. The PS was made for guys like him, but he has a good shot at making the squad next year.

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I dunno. I've always been skeptical of the Bam Childress types but it won't surprise me to see Harper on the 53.

JMC00 said:

I've liked what I've seen from Harper but think people are falling into that preseason trap again.

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I think people are excited (including me) because this year's UDFA story is at a position of one of BB's two draft weaknesses, WR/CB.

Finding a Butler at WR this year would be awesome going forward. So yes, I'm falling into the trap, just hopefully it's not one.

I'm predicting Harper to the 53, in the line of KT and BJGE. I think he's just too good to survive on the Practise Squad and, if the Pats have to go to war with Jimmy Garoppolo, it's good if he has a receiver with whom he clearly has a good understanding.

If that's the "pre-season trap" then, fine, I'm in it.

Harper is only on the 53 if LaFell starts the season on PUP.

@cpriceNFL: Post-camp projection: Another attempt at predicting Patriots 53-man roster for 2015 http://t.co/ug9Pdg6Mnk

Some are projecting 6 WRs

Not sure where the room is on the roster, but further on the depth chart.

These are the number of receptions by the 3rd, 4th and 5th highest total from WRs since Gronk arrived (a watershed event)

2010 24/9/7
2011 15/4/3
2012 21/16/1
2013 37/32/9 (and this was with 6 games of Gronk and an off-injured #2 WR missing 4 games and large parts of others)
2014 27/6/5

So with Edelman, Lafell, Amendola Wayne, and Dobson unless there are serious injury issues expecting Harper to catch more than a handful of passes if he even makes the team is a longshot.

JMC00 said:

Harper is only on the 53 if LaFell starts the season on PUP.

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Thats probably the case.

Harper will be amongst oodles of similarly skilled WR's available for the picking come cutdown day. I doubt he'll be in high demand as a result. Pats should be in strong position to add him to the PS if they so wish. If not, they'll have a very strong selection of other options instead.

One guy I would love to see added, if he's made available, is Deonte Thompsom. He might be the odd man out in Buffalo. If not him then perhaps Chris Hogan who it seems might also get cut if they keep Thompson instead.

AndyJohnson said:

Not sure where the room is on the roster, but further on the depth chart.

These are the number of receptions by the 3rd, 4th and 5th highest total from WRs since Gronk arrived (a watershed event)

2010 24/9/7
2011 15/4/3
2012 21/16/1
2013 37/32/9 (and this was with 6 games of Gronk and an off-injured #2 WR missing 4 games and large parts of others)
2014 27/6/5

So with Edelman, Lafell, Amendola Wayne, and Dobson unless there are serious injury issues expecting Harper to catch more than a handful of passes if he even makes the team is a longshot.

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Having a reliable, proven "passing" RB and "H-Back" in this system is a unknown this year.

Historically those two roles accounted for over 100+ passing targets a year.

Based on the talent on the roster, we might see more 4WR 1TE sets.

Bobs My Uncle said:

Harper will be amongst oodles of similarly skilled WR's available for the picking come cutdown day.

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Agreed. Almost every team in the NFL has a young, undersized, scrappy unknown guy who looks good in the preseason. Very few of them have room for their own young, undersized, scrappy unknown guy let alone the young, undersized, scrappy unknown guys on other rosters.

IMO, Harper wasn't nearly as impressive against Green Bay as people thought, but he did have a nice game against NO. If he makes the squad, it won't be because of where he is, it'll be because of how far he's come and the trajectory that he appears to be on.

robertweathers said:

Having a reliable, proven "passing" RB and "H-Back" in this system is a unknown this year.

Historically those two roles accounted for over 100+ passing targets a year.

Based on the talent on the roster, we might see more 4WR 1TE sets.

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Huh? 100 catches from RB? Since when?
The offense is going to look like the offense has looked. If the guy in Vereens spot isn't as able to be a weapon those plays will go to Gronk. Chandler, Lafell, Edelman, Amendola/Wayne before we suddenly start throwing to the 4th or 5th WR.

Bobs My Uncle said:

Harper will be amongst oodles of similarly skilled WR's available for the picking come cutdown day. I doubt he'll be in high demand as a result. Pats should be in strong position to add him to the PS if they so wish. If not, they'll have a very strong selection of other options instead.

One guy I would love to see added, if he's made available, is Deonte Thompsom. He might be the odd man out in Buffalo. If not him then perhaps Chris Hogan who it seems might also get cut if they keep Thompson instead.

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There is nothing 'special' about Harper that is going to cause a team to cut a player it kept to pick him up off of waivers.
Every team in the NFL will likely cut a WR in the same skill class as Harper. There is no reason to cut your own then go get the similar guy who doesn't know your system and is starting from scratch.

AndyJohnson said:

Huh? 100 catches from RB? Since when?

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Not catches, targets. If you add up every year since 2010, the "passing" RBs and the H-backs have been targeted by TB over 100+ times. Vereen, Woody, AH, etc. The do not have that proven threat this year.

AndyJohnson said:

The offense is going to look like the offense has looked. If the guy in Vereens spot isn't as able to be a weapon those plays will go to Gronk. Chandler, Lafell, Edelman, Amendola/Wayne before we suddenly start throwing to the 4th or 5th WR.

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I agree. That's my point. In the absence of a strong receiving threat out of the backfield, they may use more 4WR 1TE sets would include JE, LaFell, DA AND Wayne.

robertweathers said:

Not catches, targets. If you add up every year since 2010, the "passing" RBs and the H-backs have been targeted by TB over 100+ times. Vereen, Woody, AH, etc. The do not have that proven threat this year.

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How did we go from catches to targets and how did Hernandez come into the discussion?
The distribution of catches for the 3rd, 4th, 5th WRs is unchanged by who the RB is, whether Hernandez is around or not and any of those factors, with the exception of Gronk being out. With Gronk out we use the #3, and when one is injured #4 becomes #3.
Replacing Vereen with White or whoever isn't going to all of a sudden make the 4th and 5th WR a big part of the offense.

I agree. That's my point. In the absence of a strong receiving threat out of the backfield, they may use more 4WR 1TE sets would include JE, LaFell, DA AND Wayne.

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Nah, that is not our offense. Once in a rare while we will do that, but we will not consistently go empty, especially empty with that package, ie not a RB to make it look like it won't be empty,thereby dictating defensive personell.

In any event the discussion was that there doesnt seem to be much chance of Harper seeing the football, if he were to make the team.

AndyJohnson said:

There is nothing 'special' about Harper that is going to cause a team to cut a player it kept to pick him up off of waivers.
Every team in the NFL will likely cut a WR in the same skill class as Harper. There is no reason to cut your own then go get the similar guy who doesn't know your system and is starting from scratch.

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I agree, with the caveat that a team might cut a guy and replace him with a different guy if they like the upside of the different guy more. All teams do this with bottom end roster guys each and every year. So, there is some risk though, in the case of Harper, I'm not so sure the risk is all that great.

Bobs My Uncle said:

I agree, with the caveat that a team might cut a guy and replace him with a different guy if they like the upside of the different guy more. All teams do this with bottom end roster guys each and every year. So, there is some risk though, in the case of Harper, I'm not so sure the risk is all that great.

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Agreed but there is no reason to think Harper has shown anyone a reason to believe he has that signifcant upside.
There definitely is a 'the guy we kept sucked, so someone elses cut is probably worth a shot' factor, but there will be better prospects than Chris Harper available.

Oswlek said:

Agreed. Almost every team in the NFL has a young, undersized, scrappy unknown guy who looks good in the preseason. Very few of them have room for their own young, undersized, scrappy unknown guy let alone the young, undersized, scrappy unknown guys on other rosters.

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AndyJohnson said:

There is nothing 'special' about Harper that is going to cause a team to cut a player it kept to pick him up off of waivers.
Every team in the NFL will likely cut a WR in the same skill class as Harper. There is no reason to cut your own then go get the similar guy who doesn't know your system and is starting from scratch.

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I agree. Harper would make a great addition to our practice squad, and I for one would be glad if he cleared the waivers .

As far as the 3rd down RB situation goes, Dion Lewis will have a more difficult making the roster, not because he isn't as good as the others, but because Cadet adds more versatility as a RB/WR hybrid and White is a 4th round draftee in his second year with the team, showing signs of improvement - so I doubt he gets cut.

The silver lining, of course, is that LeGarett Blount has a one-game suspension. And that allows the Pats to include Lewis without it counting against the 53-man limit. Once Blount is activated, Lewis will be placed on waiver, and by then, other teams might not be in need of a 3rd down back. So I hope he's able to clear the waivers and get a space on the Practice Squad.

AndyJohnson said:

How did we go from catches to targets and how did Hernandez come into the discussion?

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Dont know. I always said targets. You said catches. . I threw Ah in there as he was a "move" guy and lined up as a WR and TE. Moving on...

AndyJohnson said:

The distribution of catches for the 3rd, 4th, 5th WRs is unchanged by who the RB is, whether Hernandez is around or not and any of those factors, with the exception of Gronk being out. With Gronk out we use the #3, and when one is injured #4 becomes #3. Replacing Vereen with White or whoever isn't going to all of a sudden make the 4th and 5th WR a big part of the offense.

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Yes and no. I say that b/c it is based more on personnel and playmaking ability. If you think your "move" player is a better playmaker than your "passing" RB, you throw to him more. If you think your WR3/4 is a better matchup threat or a better receiving threat than your TE or your RB you throw to him. In 07 Gaffney/Stallworth were the WR3/4 threats and they were both targeted more than Watson and almost the same as Faulk. In 2011 Woodhead had 31 targets and was 6th on the team. Why? There were better options to throw to. When Gronk went down in 2012 ans 2013, they threw more to JE, DA and Vereen.

AndyJohnson said:

Nah, that is not our offense. Once in a rare while we will do that, but we will not consistently go empty, especially empty with that package, ie not a RB to make it look like it won't be empty,thereby dictating defensive personell.

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Yes and no. Pats were in 4WR formation 27% of the time last year which is not a lot. In 07 it was 42% when they had the personnel. W/O Brady, Stallworth and Gaffney in 08 it went back down to 27%. 2013 was 25%. 2012 28%

AndyJohnson said:

In any event the discussion was that there doesnt seem to be much chance of Harper seeing the football, if he were to make the team.

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Agreed. Harper is not making the team anyway.