Actually, there were lots of people who predicted that. Some spoke of their "record setting number of FA losses," and how Cincy would be the new team of the AFCN. They spoke of how lousy their defense would be, and how limited their offense was.
The reality was that they were in direct contention for a playoff spot during the week 16 matchup with N.England, before allowing the game to slip away in the second half. But if you think about it (as you point out, as well), that's exactly what BAL is every single year. That's who they were the year they won the SB. They are a perennial 10-6, maybe 9-7 team, who has the ability to grind out victories on the road in the postseason. Nothing changed, which was my point during that debate. As a matter of fact, their defense improved in most categories that year.
As far as Manning goes, he may not be what he used to be, but he's still on the same plane as guys like Roethlisberger and Rivers. When you win 12 games and have a 39/15 TD to INT ratio, and all people do is talk about how badly you played, you're at least in the same category as the QBs from Pittsburgh or San Diego. Let's not act like he's the new Andy Dalton or Alex Smith of the conference. I couldn't imagine many scenarios where guys like Demarius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders aren't making some plays behind the running game. Just my opinion. They may not win 13 games any more, but they should be in contention for 10-11.
