How does Belichick and his staff rate at drafting wide receivers?

jmt57 said:

While I agree that the record has been mediocre at best drafting WRs, I feel compelled to comment on the 20-20 hindsight of drafts after the fact.

When Chad Jackson was drafted, nobody - and I do mean nobody - questioned the fact that he was selected prior to Jennings. If I recall correctly the Packers drafted another player first (between Jackson and Jennings) before selecting Jennings. In other words, at that time every fan base and every writer felt that the Jackson selection was the correct move. Jackson had that knee injury and was never the same. To me, I'm not going to fault Belichick and the Patriots for that decision.

Others (most notably Taylor Price) - yes, those were poor decisions. They didn't make a whole lot of sense then, and they make even less sense after the fact.

As far as Dez Bryant goes, they traded down and got Devin McCourty, Price and Aaron Hernandez. Considering their roster at the time, it wasn't an outlandish decision. As noted above, the Price selection was odd. Despite what eventually happened, the AH move was lauded as being shrewd up until the day he was released.

The 'woulda - coulda - shoulda drafted this guy' game is a futile exercise, so please excuse my eyes for rolling when I see a list of players that could have been selected. Every team is going to have some misses, just like every quarterback is going to have some incomplete passes. While the small sample size has not been as productive as we would like it to be, I would hesitate to label it as being 'terrible'. Expecting every draft pick to become a perennial starter is not realistic.

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I agree that hindsight is 20/20 and I too am not one who usually goes back after the fact... the point of this thread was to rate BB based on his drafting of WR's and that's what I did considering the talent he passed up and the production he has gotten out of his picks. Granted Chad Jackson was considered to be the right choice at the time. However, Jackson didn't pan out for whatever reason you want to say.

BB has had a very difficult time drafting elite talent at this position and part of that is because he isn't taking the elite talent when it is there. His philosophy has been remarkable and I am not going to question his football aptitude., he's the greatest ever. I will not say that he is a good evaluator of talent at the WR position, he isn't perfect.

Oswlek said:

Dillon and Dez aren't all that comparable. Different draft investment, different contracts, different production beforehand.

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My point is that Dillon was considered to be a bad dude, a head case... even more so than Dez. That's it. Not even considering everything else. People said he wouldn't take Dez based on Dez's off field antics not his on field talent which is unquestionable.

RayClay said:

Why does he always shoot craps better than other teams? Loaded dice?

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I was wondering the same thing. Getting consistent production out of crapshoots should be given more weight, not less.

slam said:

Yes if you rule out the parts in which he does well and only count the parts in which he does badly, he does look pretty bad.

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LOL awesome.

not great.

Obviously they are not terrible at assessing talent, as they have brought in solid contributors over the years, so its possible that they have just never been in a position to draft a cant miss WR. you look at guys like Antonio brown, miles austin for a little while, etc and you see how deep they got into the draft before someone took them, and you have to consider that maybe thats not so much on the patriots staff, since 32 other teams passed on them at least once.

Look at detroit, they took WR's first overall like 4 times over a short span, and only one of those guys worked out. WR is a very hard spot to hit during the draft.

37Harrison said:

My point is that Dillon was considered to be a bad dude, a head case... even more so than Dez. That's it. Not even considering everything else. People said he wouldn't take Dez based on Dez's off field antics not his on field talent which is unquestionable.

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I know, but what you are missing is that that cannot be looked at in isolation. It is too narrow focused and, as such, is a meaningless comparison.

FWIW, by the time he came to NE, Dillon wasn't remotely the headcase Dez is. Not even close.

Chiuba E. Obele said:

First off, great post!

Secondly, maybe the problem is that Bill isn't interested in changing his approach to the draft, despite the number of mistakes he's made. We can't fault him for making miscalculations , but we can fault him for refusing to learning from them.

That's why this is a useful thread. Pats fans need to be reminded that Belichick isn't infallible. He has his flaws like everyone else.

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The thing is, I'm not finding a correlation with these draft picks (other than their not becoming long term starters). Jackson was from a big time school, big time conference, big passing offense. Price was from a relatively minor program. Dobson (Marshall), Johnson (Texas A&M) and Tate (UNC) somewhere in between. Dobson is 6'3", the others in the 5'11" to 6'1" range.

To me the talent evaluation isn't the problem - Belichick and his staff saw enough that they decided that Wes Weelker and Randy Moss were superior alternatives to players that would have been available in the draft. And coaching raw talent up is not the issue either (see Edelman, Julian).

One factor may be that Belichick is looking too much at 'boom or bust' players, rather than a 'safe' pick. Tate was coming off an injury out of college. Price was from a minor program, and would miss early off-season practices due to his school's late graduation.

Maybe BB had an eye on Emmanuel Sanders (or Eric Decker, or Andre Roberts), all of whom were taken within eight spots before Price. Perhaps BB panicked and reached for a WR at that slot, even with those guys off the board - when instead he should have gone for the next selection (LB NaVorro Bowman). For what it is worth the next receivers drafted were Mardy Gilliard (8 career receptions), Mike Williams (red flags due to quitting at Syracuse) and Marcus Easley (2 career receptions).

While it may be the issue, I'm not entirely convinced that player evaluation or learning from past mistakes is the problem. It may be nothing more than the draft being not much more than a crapshoot, coupled with a small sample size.

Bruins29 said:

Remeber, that aint sexy. The 24 year olds like stats and pretty touchdowns. so its all about that.

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I blame fantasy football.

nabwong said:

I blame fantasy football.

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Pretty much. Its ruined the game IMO. It brings in fans who really fans. It puts focus on offense to please these fans. It ends up changing the game to put more focus on offense to please these fans.

Its all bad NFL = bad. I dont want to see the league prosper anyway. Too corrupt.

37Harrison said:

I hear what you are saying but do you really think Dez would act like he does in Dallas here? The plain fact is the dude is a beast. If BB was willing to take a shot on Dillon, I don't know why he wouldn't take a shot on someone like Dez.

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Yes. I think Dez Bryant would still act like a total ****head in NE too. There is no comparison between him and Corey Dillon IMO. They are better off without him than wasting a 1st round pick on him. Had he been available in the 3-4th round then that's a different story.

Joker said:

the Dracula thread of Patsfans.com resurrects itself once again...

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Doesn't make it any less true.

jmt57 said:

Remember when it was 'BB can't draft tight ends'?

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I don't; can you provide a link?

can you imagine what a cluster **** it would have been if you had Aaron hernandez and dez bryant in the locker room? Those two head cases probably would have taken turns murdering people.

Oswlek said:

Dillon and Dez aren't all that comparable. Different draft investment, different contracts, different production beforehand.

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Corey Dillon didn't need 24-hour surveillance either.

captain stone said:

I don't; can you provide a link?

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Every year before Gronk was drafted (including blowing 2 first-round picks).

You may have missed it, what with the "WHY IS MATT SLATER STILL HERE?!?!" stuff around the same time.

If BB is dead set on drafting a WR in the 1st round in any upcoming draft he should just trade that pick for a well established legit one instead of wasting another pick on another Chad Jackson.

37Harrison said:

My point is that Dillon was considered to be a bad dude, a head case... even more so than Dez. That's it. Not even considering everything else. People said he wouldn't take Dez based on Dez's off field antics not his on field talent which is unquestionable.

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Dez Bryant had some on the field concerns, as well.

While at Oklahoma State, they were rumored to dumb down their schemes so that he could pick them up quickly.

It just didn't seem like s good fit here for an offense and system that relies on intelligence and a very strong attitude/work ethic. I'd be interested in getting Bill's opinion now, looking back. I have a feeling that he'd make the same call.

The answer to this question is that Belichick has been awful in this particular area, as great as he's been in most others.

I forgot just how bad he was until I recently went back and re-read "War Room," where he speaks about his concerns for Julio Jones, while praising WR Jonathan Baldwin.

Not sure you can critique BB and his draft of WR's unless you critique every other teams simultaneously. Is BB's deficit a strength in every other team?? Or is BB unique in his inability to find the right guys.. do other teams have similar issues??

Isn't this the team that has gone to the SB 6 times in the past 15 years?? With that GOAT #12 leading the way.. somehow this all works out.

Most of us have learned by now that finding a WR who "stretches the field" or takes the "top off of a defense" are just buzz words created by the media.. unfortunately injuries cannot be predicted when you draft a player.

There is an interesting theory that the further away from the line of scrimmage a player is, the worse BB is at drafting and indeed he sucks at drafting WRs and CBs. Sucks. There is no other way to put it.

Why? Maybe it is his insistence on drafting mature, responsible boy scout types and not many top notch WRs and CBs fall into that category. Most top WRs are immature prima donnas.

The classic example is drafting Brandon Tate in 2009 at 83. The Stealers must have been laughing all the way up to the table as they took Mike Wallace at 84.