Criticizing the 2015 Secondary is Overdone

mgteich said:

efore the Revis situation was resolved, many here thought that he might not make the 53.

Click to expand...

patfanken said:

Actually the reason I didn't get into the secondary as far as position flexibility went was because the post was already getting long and I had made my point.....I thought.

But position flexibility extends to the secondary as well. You have to notice that for the most part most of the S's have also had a lot of college experience at CB. Maybe that's why BB has rarely gone for the big 220lb SS types that a lot of fans here constantly call for (including me a while back) and doesn't flop S's for the most part. While the LB/S hybrid is something to strive for (IMHO, I think he should come out of college as a LB, rather than drop from S into the LB position (though the Pats will do that on occasion)

But back to the point. One of McCourty's great assets is that he has proven he can cover any receiver in man when its called for. Both Chung and Wilson also have a lot of experience in college at CB. I'm not so sure if Harmon played much CB at Rutgers....but you get the point.

But the bottom line is that everyone is worried about the secondary and this much change at CB makes it a legitimate reason to be CONSERNED, but not panicked for the following reasons.

1. Until proven differently, BB has fielded successful winning teams with a LOT worse talent in the secondary

2. The issues at CB are partially off-set by the stability and talent at S

3. As well as the talent at LB and more pass rush on the DL

4. I have higher hopes for Fletcher at CB than most. Don't forget that Chung had a very similar rep coming from Philly before last year. It should also be noted that the DB coaches were fired after last season. I'm not sayi9ng he's on the same level as Talib or Revis, but in a system more suited for his talents, I expect a similar bounce back year to what Chung showed us.

To that end, I see the Pats being more conservative on the back end this year, but compensating by being more aggressive in the front 7. Easley, Hightower and Brown have the potential to give us the best inside pass rush we've had in the BB era.

I see us playing a lot of tight 4 and 5 under zones with 1,2 and 3 men deep depending on the configuration and an aggressive 5 man rush (ie, 5-4-2, 5-5-1, 4-5-2, and 4-4-3). Obviously I expect the defense to be a lot more complex than this simple supposition, but I do expect more 5 man rushes this year than in previous ones, simply based on the talent available.

Lots of question marks for this team, perhaps more than we'd like to see. It also doesn't help that the division might be one of the strongest in the league this year, with all our division rivals adding some very significant big names over the off season. Its only a matter of time before Revis is quoted as saying, he sees more talent in the Jets camp this year than he saw with the Pats.

I suspect there will be a lot fewer blowouts this year, but that's OK. I'm comfortable with the gains the division has made. It will mean a lot more close games. But the fact is that the Pats have been very. VERY good at winning close games. And we all know that winning close games isn't always about talent on paper. It's about focus, discipline, and execution, something the Pats have been very good at for a very long time

Click to expand...

Oswlek said:

Just felt like tossing a few comments out there with regard to the 2011 team since that is the hyperbolic comparison most often used by concerned fans. Please allow me to borrow format from OTG.

01 ~ As several have said, the safety position is better than it was in 2011 by every conceivable standard. The starters are better, the depth is better and the skill sets and more diverse.

02 ~ After potentially making a mistake in the release of James Sanders (it was undoubtably negative to start the season, but I maintain it had no impact on the final game), the position was further challenged by Chung missing half the season.

Seriously, until McCourty moved over, Ihedigbo was the best safety on the field.... by a healthy margin. Would 2011 Iggy even make the roster this year? Does anyone think Slater or Edelman will play meaningful defensive snaps this year?

03 ~ The lack of an offseason was a major contributing factor to the team's issues. Whether it precipitated the switch in defense or simply inhibited it, only Bill can say, but had an undeniable negative impact.

04 ~ The top LBs on the team that year were Mayo, Spikes, Nink and Guyton.... and Spikes missed half the year.

05 ~ The DEs were solid that year, with Carter/Anderson putting together terrific seasons for cheap imports and Nink/Ellis as depth, but the DTs weren't nearly as dynamic. Wilfork was terrific (his AFCCG performance was the best I saw him play), but Love, Warren, Deaderick and Ellis didn't provide much aside from providing steady production. Not that each didn't have their moments, and this year's squad is admittedly missing a Vince, but it is a good bet that the DTs are more disruptive compared to their 2011 counterparts.

06 ~ And, of course, we have to touch on the CBs themselves. McCourty was terrible for the first month and then was secretly decent from that point on (so much so that many fans still don't realize this), Arrington led the league in picks, but he was secretly pretty lousy. Aside from that, the only other CB worth mentioning is Sterling Moore, who flashed a little in the middle of the year, was demoted to the PS and came back near the end to make the play of the game against Baltimore. Two of them, in fact.

Perhaps I'm being naive, but I have a hard time imaging squeezing less than that out of Butler, Fletcher, Ryan, Roberts and whatever flotsam and jetsam is currently floating around. Two guys who combine to have one lousy season and one OK one and another who was basically a poor man's 2014 Malcom Butler?

07 ~ So, doing a quick and dirty comparison

CB - The absolute worst case scenario is about the same as 2011
DT - Ditto the CB response
LB - Far too much top end talent for this area to even approach 2011, barring catastrophic injuries.
S - Ditto LB, except even injuries couldn't make this happen. Quite literally, you could trot out a starting duo of Tavon Wilson and Jordan Richards and still get more from the position.
DE - The only position on the field where it is even conceivable that you might get less production, though surpassing 2011 wouldn't exactly be a monumental feat.

****ty CBs or no, there appears to be little reason to fear a repeat of 2011. FWIW, that abomination still ended up 15th in points per game and held all three playoff opponents below their season averages.

Click to expand...

patsfan13 said:

What we know for certain is that BB will adjust the scheme to get the most out of the players on the roster.

I think Bulter will develop into a +#1 CB, not Sherman or Revis but more than capable. It will be fascinating to see how the secondary will shake out.


Really though remarkably few questions coming into camp. For me the only large questions are OG and CB.

Click to expand...

neuronet said:

For cryin' out loud they haven't played a single game together yet. Not even a pre-season game yet. We don't even know, for sure, who the starters will be. There has been no criticism or praise of anything worth listening to.

Click to expand...

Brady6 said:

I would add to my last post that Derek Cox who is only 28 years old was a pro bowl level CB in 2012 and signed a $20M contract the same offseason we retain Talib for just $5M (2013 offseason).

If Belichick can right that ship he could have a stud.

Click to expand...

mgteich said:

Agreed. The nickel is played more than "base".

Click to expand...

Brady6 said:

Worst case scenario is Butler is not the second coming we all hope and believe he can be and Roberts talent never translates on the field.

That leaves us with Fletcher who was a rising star prior to signing with Philadelphia and Ryan who has proven capable of playing well as the starters outside and McClain who I assure you is easily as good as Arrington, maybe even better in the slot. That is not anything close to the **** show we ran out there in 2011.

Fletcher is not much differ than Talib was when he arrived here in 2012.

Click to expand...

Nunchucks said:

The only real "known" good player in the secondary is McCourty. Every other player has serious questions. If questioning that is overdone, then we should question the point of a patriots message board.

Click to expand...

Nunchucks said:

Talib has always been a talented CB with injury and character concerns. Fletcher comes to the Patriots after being roasted all season in 2014. So, really nothing alike at all. Ryan has proven he is capable of being inconsistent and by inconsistent, I mean playing poorly lots of the time. Especially, when he is playing a high volume of snaps.

The Patriots secondary has a long way to go. If everything goes right, we will see Butler rise to the number 1 corner spot and see Fletcher play well as a number 2.

Click to expand...

mgteich said:

1) Yes, Belichick chose Fletcher and McClain over Dennard and Arrington. That fact does not make Fletcher and McClain solid starters. These players had bad years last year and were mis-used. Those facts don't make them stars for the patriots.

2) Butler has flashed as a backup. Before the Revis situation was resolved, many here thought that he might not make the 53. Butler is good developmental player to have on the 53. That does NOT make him an adequate starter in 2015 or even in 2016.

3) Belichick likely has faith in Ryan as a starter in a zone defense. This is the one thing that seems to make sense.

4) starter - Ryan
starter/backup - Fletcher, Butler
nickel - McClain
5th corner - someone who will likely not have any defensive reps unless there are two injuries
This may not be the worst talent among the playoff teams. It is certainly close.

BOTTOM LINE
We have among the worst set of corners among playoff teams. This group is an extreme weakness in a critical area of the defense.

Of course, we always have weaknesses. With the cap, and with Belichick's strategy of stability over time, that will always be the case. Belichick has a challenge. He needs to develop a new defense for the patriots which makes up for weaknesses at the two most important positions on the defense.

Will Belichick succeed? Sure. He always does. But, unless we simply want to stop analysis and just say that the patriots are the SB winner because we have Belichick and Brady, we should face some reality. The corners are weak.

Click to expand...

rochrist said:

We have an unproven set of corners. That isn't necessarily the same thing as the worst in the league.

Click to expand...

mgteich said:

No solid team would consciously go into the season with the worst set of corners among playoffs teams. We are discussing expectations. Clearly, we hope that these corners will turn out to be solid.

In some sense, everyone but our all-pros are "unproven". There is always hope. You can only be "worst" after the season is over. Until then, there is hope.

Click to expand...