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Criticizing the 2015 Secondary is Overdone


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We just have to hope that Bill has found some guys who can really play for a low rate. Randall Gay is another guy BB drafted who has gone on to have a very successful career. So we will just have to see if he does that kind of thing again.. Maybe this Roberts guy can be the next Randall Gay.

Personally I thought Arrington and Dennard at times were decent - so BB clearly knows what he is doing. My gut feeling is that unless you get amazing players at the CB position - guys with a reputation (aka Revis, Talib etc) you kinda get screwed on calls anyway. So maybe it is better to spend your money up front. It's hard to whine your way out of a sack..
 
01 ~ Spending heavily on the Secondary is like spending heavily on the Tail, not the Dog.

02 ~ Mad Bill chose wisely.

03 ~ That doesn't mean that there won't be Consequences. Of course there will be Consequences.

04 ~ The Secondary is shaky, whatever Fans may wish to believe.

05 ~ Mad Bill saw an Opportunity to rent Revis for a Year at a Discount, and he seized it.

06 ~ That...was Brilliant. And it helped win us a Championship.

07 ~ But to overplay that Hand...could've and probably would've been Disastrous.

08 ~ Mad Bill appears to be moving forward with a focus on investing in the Front 6 or 7.

09 ~ That is considerably Wise. He is investing not in the Tail, but in the Dog.

10 ~ Don't worry about the Secondary.

If this Front 6 or 7 reaches its enormous Potential, our Foes are going to be so relentlessly battered and beaten and so rushed for Time that our Grannies could cover Greasy Chickens out there!! :D


I generally agree OTG. But no Front 7 is ever what the fans want. Why even in Buffalo the fans were critcizing the highest sack defense for "no pass rush".

The reality is that the Pats reached the 40+ sacks per annum level for the first time in half a decade; and it will likely get even better with experience and the new talent added. There are rising stars on the DL and LBs. It may even project as the best that BB has ever fielded for a non 3-4 Defense.
 
1) .

BOTTOM LINE
We have among the worst set of corners among playoff teams. This group is an extreme weakness in a critical area of the defense.

Of course, we always have weaknesses. With the cap, and with Belichick's strategy of stability over time, that will always be the case. Belichick has a challenge. He needs to develop a new defense for the patriots which makes up for weaknesses at the two most important positions on the defense.

Will Belichick succeed? Sure. He always does. But, unless we simply want to stop analysis and just say that the patriots are the SB winner because we have Belichick and Brady, we should face some reality. The corners are weak.
The secondary is clearly a flash point for fans as "experts" alike. I'm not as optimistic as AZ, nor am I pessimistic as you, MG. The basis for my opinion comes from an underlying belief that most NFL players are pretty much equal to each other as far as physical talent goes. True there are probably 5-10 "anomalies" like Revis who are the exceptions who prove the rule, but for the most part I believe that 90% of the CB's in the league are pretty much equal.

For example, off the top of my head, as far as "names" go, I doubt you could think of a worse secondary than the Jets had, yet one of the top offenses in the league (the Pats) last year needed a miracle catch from Amendola to beat them. On that day, against quality talent, that no name Jet secondary played the Pats as tough as any secondary did that entire year.

So in my opinion it is entirely possible that the Pats DEFENSE (as a team) could be every bit as good as the D we had last season. The reason I can say thins is that the DEFENSE (as a team) cannot be analyzed piece by piece (DL, LB's, DB's) You have to look at it as a whole.

I think we all would agree that just based on physical talent, this year's DL has the potential to be the most talented BB has had in years. Whether it turns out that way will depend on the continuing development of young guys like Easley, Brown, and Siliga, but the raw talent is certainly there.

The LB's we would all agree is a group that could easily be argued is among the top 5 groups in the entire league, and is strengthened this year with the return of Mayo and added quality depth. Of course questions remain about when Mayo and Hightower will return to full speed, but we do know that eventually they both will.

Finally, I believe the secondary, in combination with the other 2 units, and an offense that should be even better, will be adequate to give the Pats another top 10 scoring Defense. Remember, in reality, scoring defense is the ONLY defensive stat that really matters. BB understands this truism better than anyone. He doesn't care about "total defensive stats", or the rest of them. That's why even when the defense was at it's worst (ironically in 2011), we ranked 31st in total D, yet 16th in scoring.

This brings me to another point of discussion that I have brought up from time to time. That is the growing importance of the S position as the game evolves. Safety could be considered a strength, and while its easy to make Patrick Chung an easy target to dismiss as being a JAG. He has in reality played at a much higher level in 2011 (where he was probably our best DB that season), and 2014 where his good over all play was lost in the hype of Revis and Browner. This post is going too long already to discuss this in detail, but the redo at CB can't be focused on in isolation without considering the effect of the stability, depth and talent we have at the Safety position.

BOTTOM LINE: We aren't even in TC yet. It is legit to question the changes at CB and the secondary as a whole, but we really won't know how good OR bad it will be until October at least.. I defend the right of any of us to be as negative as they want. The fact is we lost our top 4 CB's and that HAS to be questioned. However I WILL bristle when people make those "absolute" statements. Like, "he is garbage" or, "this will never work"; because we really don't know yet, and won't for a LONG time.
 
While I would love to think that Butler is 5'11, and be might very well be. However the source you used to validate your opinion is the same one that listed Vince Wilfolk at 325 for the last decade. ;)
So Butler is really 6'2" ?
 
2015 looks like a Transition Year to me ~ which for us is probably 12-4 or 11-5 and a Divisional.

[...]

2016 looks very Promising.
disagree.

To paraphrase BB, we're just taking it one season at a time.

Way too early to be writing off 2015 and looking ahead to 2016. By then there will be new questions, contracts (Solder?), injuries, etc.

In BB we trust, 2015 is going to be the Awesome FU Tour!
 
Are folks really trying sell us on Chung as a good Safety? We'll see. He was mediocre in Philly and mediocre to poor before that here in New England. When he came back he was surrounded by Revis, Browner and McCourty and with that supporting case he looked pretty good. He still has trouble covering good tight ends down the field and is even worse against wide receivers. We'll see how he does without elite corners around him. I like McCourty, a lot. But I don't think he at the same level as say Earl Thomas. I like Butler, but he was the 5th corner in the Superbowl. Arrington and Ryan were ahead of him. Both are very limited. I think he is better that either, but I remember McCourty talking about him and how he was starting to grasp the defense so I do think he'll be good as he gains experience, but he does have size limitations against a lot of receivers out there.

Last year, the Superbowl showcased the two best secondaries and two best pairs of starting corners in the league. I don't see that as a coincidence, do you?
 
Wow what crawled up your ass, such hostility!

Have a beer or something and chill the **** out.. this board is becoming ridiculous

People are such assholes all the time now around here
Look in a mirror to find out who is being the ass, and a total one at that. You're the one that initially called me out for something you practically fabricated from my short post related to the question marks about this year's secondary and now you exponentially attack me in regards to it. I find the board to be just fine minus a few exceptions.:rolleyes:
 
The secondary is clearly a flash point for fans as "experts" alike. I'm not as optimistic as AZ, nor am I pessimistic as you, MG. The basis for my opinion comes from an underlying belief that most NFL players are pretty much equal to each other as far as physical talent goes. True there are probably 5-10 "anomalies" like Revis who are the exceptions who prove the rule, but for the most part I believe that 90% of the CB's in the league are pretty much equal.

For example, off the top of my head, as far as "names" go, I doubt you could think of a worse secondary than the Jets had, yet one of the top offenses in the league (the Pats) last year needed a miracle catch from Amendola to beat them. On that day, against quality talent, that no name Jet secondary played the Pats as tough as any secondary did that entire year.

So in my opinion it is entirely possible that the Pats DEFENSE (as a team) could be every bit as good as the D we had last season. The reason I can say thins is that the DEFENSE (as a team) cannot be analyzed piece by piece (DL, LB's, DB's) You have to look at it as a whole.

I think we all would agree that just based on physical talent, this year's DL has the potential to be the most talented BB has had in years. Whether it turns out that way will depend on the continuing development of young guys like Easley, Brown, and Siliga, but the raw talent is certainly there.

The LB's we would all agree is a group that could easily be argued is among the top 5 groups in the entire league, and is strengthened this year with the return of Mayo and added quality depth. Of course questions remain about when Mayo and Hightower will return to full speed, but we do know that eventually they both will.

Finally, I believe the secondary, in combination with the other 2 units, and an offense that should be even better, will be adequate to give the Pats another top 10 scoring Defense. Remember, in reality, scoring defense is the ONLY defensive stat that really matters. BB understands this truism better than anyone. He doesn't care about "total defensive stats", or the rest of them. That's why even when the defense was at it's worst (ironically in 2011), we ranked 31st in total D, yet 16th in scoring.

This brings me to another point of discussion that I have brought up from time to time. That is the growing importance of the S position as the game evolves. Safety could be considered a strength, and while its easy to make Patrick Chung an easy target to dismiss as being a JAG. He has in reality played at a much higher level in 2011 (where he was probably our best DB that season), and 2014 where his good over all play was lost in the hype of Revis and Browner. This post is going too long already to discuss this in detail, but the redo at CB can't be focused on in isolation without considering the effect of the stability, depth and talent we have at the Safety position.

BOTTOM LINE: We aren't even in TC yet. It is legit to question the changes at CB and the secondary as a whole, but we really won't know how good OR bad it will be until October at least.. I defend the right of any of us to be as negative as they want. The fact is we lost our top 4 CB's and that HAS to be questioned. However I WILL bristle when people make those "absolute" statements. Like, "he is garbage" or, "this will never work"; because we really don't know yet, and won't for a LONG time.

I agree with almost all your comments, especially those focused on the defense. I like our safeties (McCourty and Chung), and Belichick saw fit to add a top draftee to the mix. We should have one producer from Harmon and Richards. And yes, the DL and the LB corps could be greatly improved. And yes, all that matters is points scored against us. And yes, we should look at the defense as a whole.

All this analysis does NOT make our corners any better. PRESUMING, a man defense, they are all question marks except Ryan. With a more traditional Belichick defense, they are ALL question marks.
So, we presume a shift in the entire nature of the defense, from one led by the corners to one covering up the corners with a penetrating front seven.

I don't think that we should underestimate how difficult it is to change a defense. We don't have two top pass rushing demon DE's. I like our DE, but all-pro pass rushers they are not.

Let's be clear. I think that the change in defense can happen. And yes, I believe that Fletcher is a starter in that defense. Fletcher is the experienced corner that Belichick CHOSE, apparently to play man. I certainly hope McClain is as good as Arrington. Personally, I think that keeping Arrington for stability would have made more sense.
 
Fletcher is not a Man corner, neither is Ryan. Butler might be. The safeties will help. The key to Zone coverage is the safeties.
 
We just have to hope that Bill has found some guys who can really play for a low rate. Randall Gay is another guy BB drafted who has gone on to have a very successful career. So we will just have to see if he does that kind of thing again.. Maybe this Roberts guy can be the next Randall Gay.

Personally I thought Arrington and Dennard at times were decent - so BB clearly knows what he is doing. My gut feeling is that unless you get amazing players at the CB position - guys with a reputation (aka Revis, Talib etc) you kinda get screwed on calls anyway. So maybe it is better to spend your money up front. It's hard to whine your way out of a sack..

Gay and Arrington weren't drafted. Honestly, top CBs go in the upper half of round one and command high salaries. If you don't have that high a pick [we usually don't] it seems to be a crap shoot. 2nd rounder or UDFA, he's done about as expected, 1 of 3 success.
 

Fair Enough. I go with these guys, myself, most of the time:

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=129122&draftyear=2014&genpos=CB

Most Sites ~ including the one you've cited ~ are pretty sloppy about these things.

DraftScout, however, is pretty damned reliable, if I may say so.

But then: I haven't had Butler in my kitchen, standing straight up against the wall while I worked a Tape Measure and pencil like Mom used to do, so I can't claim 100% Certainty. :p
 
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My apologies - I blame myself for disregarding said IF. But it provided, in this case, a wonderful straw-man from which I could continue what appears to be a heated agreement.

Edit: I must protest that in this case, "If" was neither all caps nor italicized. The OTG Manual of Style would frown on this lack of emphasis for such an important word :)

FTW, Brother Virginia!!
jester.gif
 
2015 looks like a Transition Year to me ~ which for us is probably 12-4 or 11-5 and a Divisional.

And with a Break or three....??? :D In any case: We should once again be In The Thick'f It.

The Secondary should take a step or three back.

The Front 6 or 7 should improve.

2016 looks very Promising.

Way too early to be writing off 2015 and looking ahead to 2016.

I assessed our Chances in 2015 as being Transitional but In The Thick Of It.

That hardly amounts to "writing it off".

Learn to read.

And wise men always look first to The Long View ~ Long Term.

...While Fools wet themselves every single Year.
 
I wet myself last year. But I was truly convinced that in stating I was worried Vociferously & Tentatively, I was in fact saving the Patriots' Season.

I have often Stated, in this forum, that I am Always Wrong, particularly at any point during which I find myself Worried about the Season in Question.

And so it Came to Pass, that prior to the Cincinnati Game, I Expressed Doubts as to the viability of that year's Patriots Team, with the caveat that I am, in fact, Always Wrong.

This brings up the Question: Do you need my ring size and address, Mr. Kraft?
 
I know it is a bit unconventional but I am actually going to wait until they have at least 1 camp practice before determine how the secondary looks.

The Patriots have the 2nd best safety in the NFL in my opinion (#1 Earl Thomas, #2 Devin McCourty). Malcolm Butler made arguably the greatest defensive play in the history of the NFL, Bradley Fletcher led the NFL in pass defends in 2014, McClain was labeled a secret superstar by PFF (I know, I know) after the 2012 season, and Logan Ryan had 5 interceptions as a rookie in 2013. Not all is bad, if Belichick can get everyone to play to the best of their abilities including my binkie Darryl Roberts this secondary could actually be very good.
 
Secondary's don't matter much when the QB's laying down in the fetal position.

Welcome to the Jamie Collins era.
 
I agree with almost all your comments, especially those focused on the defense. I like our safeties (McCourty and Chung), and Belichick saw fit to add a top draftee to the mix. We should have one producer from Harmon and Richards. And yes, the DL and the LB corps could be greatly improved. And yes, all that matters is points scored against us. And yes, we should look at the defense as a whole.

All this analysis does NOT make our corners any better. PRESUMING, a man defense, they are all question marks except Ryan. With a more traditional Belichick defense, they are ALL question marks.
So, we presume a shift in the entire nature of the defense, from one led by the corners to one covering up the corners with a penetrating front seven.

I don't think that we should underestimate how difficult it is to change a defense. We don't have two top pass rushing demon DE's. I like our DE, but all-pro pass rushers they are not.

Let's be clear. I think that the change in defense can happen. And yes, I believe that Fletcher is a starter in that defense. Fletcher is the experienced corner that Belichick CHOSE, apparently to play man. I certainly hope McClain is as good as Arrington. Personally, I think that keeping Arrington for stability would have made more sense.

We will absolutely have growing pains in the front seven, especially pass rush and Line. Also, we will have a different approach in the secondary, and i expect to see three safeties a lot on passing downs.

Chung covered well last year, but it's not his strength and Harmon should play more coverage with chung closer to the box.

I see this defense taking half a season to gel, but think the ceiling is very high, with more emphasis on the linebackers and safeties until the pass rushers, DTs and cornerbacks find their sea legs. One more corner from another teams cuts would be nice.
 
We will absolutely have growing pains in the front seven, especially pass rush and Line. Also, we will have a different approach in the secondary, and i expect to see three safeties a lot on passing downs.

Chung covered well last year, but it's not his strength and Harmon should play more coverage with chung closer to the box.

I see this defense taking half a season to gel, but think the ceiling is very high, with more emphasis on the linebackers and safeties until the pass rushers, DTs and cornerbacks find their sea legs. One more corner from another teams cuts would be nice.

I disagree with the idea of three safeties on passing downs. I would expect to see only McCourty and Harmon. McClain has been a solid nickel. If he is isn't expected to be good enough to be one of the three db's on passing downs, we should have kept Arrington, who was very good in that role.

Don't you believe that we have three corners who can play solid zone? Certainly, Fletcher and Davis should be expected to be playing zone on passing downs. McClain OR Butler should be good enough to be the third.
 
I disagree with the idea of three safeties on passing downs. I would expect to see only McCourty and Harmon. McClain has been a solid nickel. If he is isn't expected to be good enough to be one of the three db's on passing downs, we should have kept Arrington, who was very good in that role.

Don't you believe that we have three corners who can play solid zone? Certainly, Fletcher and Davis should be expected to be playing zone on passing downs. McClain OR Butler should be good enough to be the third.

I could see subbing for a linebacker or lineman. Who's Davis? Collins?
 
I am not going to be concerned or lose sleep in July about our CBs. As I have said before I have faith that Bill will give us the best he has without destroying the team financially. I will reserve my opinion about the CBs until after pre season. I suspect no problem, we will do fine, it's an eleven man effort on D..
 
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