Pre Training Camp Mock Roster

jah · Jul 12, 2015

QB (2): Garoppolo, Flynn
RB (5): Gray, Bolden, Cadet, White, Develin
WR (6): Edelman, LaFell, Amendola, Gibson, Dobson, Slater
TE (3): Gronkowski, Chandler, Hoomanawanui
T (4): Solder, Vollmer, Cannon, Fleming
G/C (5): Stork, Wendell, Kline, Jackson, Mason
DL (5): Siliga, Branch, Chris Jones, Brown, Easley
DL/LB (5): Chandler Jones, Ninkovich, Sheard, Grissom, Flowers
LB (5): Hightower, Collins, Mayo, Fletcher, Wells
CB (5): Ryan, Fletcher, Butler, McClain, Roberts
S (5): McCourty, Chung, Harmon, Richards, Ebner
ST (3): Gostkowski, Allen, Cardona
PUP/NFI/Susp./etc (2): Brady, Blount

-As always, I refuse to make conjectures about suspensions and PUP/NFI. Therefore, Brady is off the roster (for the record, I think the suspension stands anyway) and Hightower is on despite likely going to PUP.
-Gaffney could sneak on over Gray, Cadet, or White. Jonas Gray is the most JAG player on this roster and his 201 yards vs IND were the product of a 6 man offensive line.
-Tyms could beat out Dobson or Gibson, I guess.
-Derby screams practice squad to me, especially with the presence of 3 TEs on the roster who BB is in love with.
-Please please please please please please please please no more Devey. I wish the best for him, including a miraculous improvement in football skills, but god damn is he awful.
-It sucks to cut Vellano and Moore, especially Moore. I bet Moore will find a way on the team somehow, but right now it doesn't look like there's a spot.
-If/when Hightower goes to the PUP, I'd probably give his spot to Morris or Fleming.
-Darryl Roberts is definitely my binky this year.
-Tavon Wilson is good enough to make a roster, but I don't see us keeping 6 safeties. All 5 of the safeties I have on the 53 are 100% safe. Ebner will not be cut. As someone above said, BB loves him so much that he's made the club from the tub before. He's probably viewed no differently from Slater by the team.

mgteich · Jul 12, 2015

RayClay said:
Wells is safety sized and only makes it as a special teamer. That means him or Ebner IMO, because Tavon has developed into a core special teams guy that is a big hitter and a lot more likely to step in at safety or hybrid [Wells] than the other two. Pretend he was drafted in the 7th round if it makes you feel better, but I think he's going to ultimately show value in the regular defense, not compared to second round picks, but compared to his competition on the team. ST, safety, CB.

I don't think that Wells can beat out either Ebner or Wilson as a special teamer.

mgteich · Jul 12, 2015

Elijah said:
QB (2): Garoppolo, Flynn
RB (5): Gray, Bolden, Cadet, White, Develin
WR (6): Edelman, LaFell, Amendola, Gibson, Dobson, Slater
TE (3): Gronkowski, Chandler, Hoomanawanui
T (4): Solder, Vollmer, Cannon, Fleming
G/C (5): Stork, Wendell, Kline, Jackson, Mason
DL (5): Siliga, Branch, Chris Jones, Brown, Easley
DL/LB (5): Chandler Jones, Ninkovich, Sheard, Grissom, Flowers
LB (5): Hightower, Collins, Mayo, Fletcher, Wells
CB (5): Ryan, Fletcher, Butler, McClain, Roberts
S (5): McCourty, Chung, Harmon, Richards, Ebner
ST (3): Gostkowski, Allen, Cardona
PUP/NFI/Susp./etc (2): Brady, Blount

-As always, I refuse to make conjectures about suspensions and PUP/NFI. Therefore, Brady is off the roster (for the record, I think the suspension stands anyway) and Hightower is on despite likely going to PUP.
-Gaffney could sneak on over Gray, Cadet, or White. Jonas Gray is the most JAG player on this roster and his 201 yards vs IND were the product of a 6 man offensive line.
-Tyms could beat out Dobson or Gibson, I guess.
-Derby screams practice squad to me, especially with the presence of 3 TEs on the roster who BB is in love with.
-Please please please please please please please please no more Devey. I wish the best for him, including a miraculous improvement in football skills, but god damn is he awful.
-It sucks to cut Vellano and Moore, especially Moore. I bet Moore will find a way on the team somehow, but right now it doesn't look like there's a spot.
-If/when Hightower goes to the PUP, I'd probably give his spot to Morris or Fleming.
-Darryl Roberts is definitely my binky this year.
-Tavon Wilson is good enough to make a roster, but I don't see us keeping 6 safeties. All 5 of the safeties I have on the 53 are 100% safe. Ebner will not be cut. As someone above said, BB loves him so much that he's made the club from the tub before. He's probably viewed no differently from Slater by the team.

I was going to comment on the PP, but decided not to once I read this post and analysis. I agree with 52 players out of the 53, and with all of the analysis. other than ignoring the speculation about what happens if someone is put on the PUP list.

DISAGREEMENT - THE 53rd PLAYER - WILSON over WELLS
You have 5 pure linebackers on the 53. As you point out, several of the DE's are also OLB's. The 5th LB, the 15th front 7 player is usually a Special Teams position. You have filled it with Wells, who I think is not nearly ready to play in the NFL, and certainly not ready to compete at LB.

The open question, as stated by others, is whether Wells can make the team as a special teamer, beating out other special teamers, who may or may not have some emergency skill at a position.

My proposal is to give the position to the player that YOU believe is good enough to be on the 53: Tavon Wilson. The last few spots on the roster, especially the last three, are for players who are exactly like Wilson: good enough to be on the 53.

To be blunt, I think that Wilson adds much more to the 2015 team than does Wells.

COMMENTS
DL - I strongly agree with Chris Jones on the 53 over Moore and Vellano.
LB - If healthy, we have our top three plus Fletcher.
DB - We all seem to hoping that Roberts makes the 53. We have room for him as the 5th CB.
RB - I have your list. However, I have no confidence that this will be these will be the final list. I still hope for us to sign a RB.

captain stone · Jul 12, 2015

Brady6 said:
Shaq Mason was along side Ali Marpet with the best numbers at the NFL combine. That said in this era of football the sides are less meaningful teams move players around, inside and outside. Look at a player such as Watt he lines up everywhere from NT to OLB on a regular basis.

But can Mason pass-block from LG when he rarely had to do it in college, and that's only after hoping that he's even able to overcome his height deficiency to play LG here? Or do you seriously consider wide-bodies Cannon, Fleming & Tre Jackson viable candidates for LG? Because I don't, at all.

jah · Jul 12, 2015

mgteich said:
I was going to comment on the PP, but decided not to once I read this post and analysis. I agree with 52 players out of the 53, and with all of the analysis. other than ignoring the speculation about what happens if someone is put on the PUP list.

DISAGREEMENT - THE 53rd PLAYER - WILSON over WELLS
You have 5 pure linebackers on the 53. As you point out, several of the DE's are also OLB's. The 5th LB, the 15th front 7 player is usually a Special Teams position. You have filled it with Wells, who I think is not nearly ready to play in the NFL, and certainly not ready to compete at LB.

The open question, as stated by others, is whether Wells can make the team as a special teamer, beating out other special teamers, who may or may not have some emergency skill at a position.

My proposal is to give the position to the player that YOU believe is good enough to be on the 53: Tavon Wilson. The last few spots on the roster, especially the last three, are for players who are exactly like Wilson: good enough to be on the 53.

To be blunt, I think that Wilson adds much more to the 2015 team than does Wells.

COMMENTS
DL - I strongly agree with Chris Jones on the 53 over Moore and Vellano.
LB - If healthy, we have our top three plus Fletcher.
DB - We all seem to hoping that Roberts makes the 53. We have room for him as the 5th CB.
RB - I have your list. However, I have no confidence that this will be these will be the final list. I still hope for us to sign a RB.

I think you've persuaded me that Wells is not ready for the 53 yet. However, I was counting him as a positional/coverage LB more so than ST, but I know just about nothing about BB's plans. Therefore, I feel obligated to add another linebacker, probably Morris based on minicamp/OTA reports, instead of Wilson even though I really want to find him a spot.

Patriot Missile · Jul 12, 2015

tasmlab said:
Pure armchair speculation/gut feeling, but I think Slater retires a patriot in his early- to mid-thirties.

Fun fact: Slater was selected to the 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 Pro Bowl as a special teamer.

I expected Whigham, Cherry and Izzo to retire Patriots and that didn't happen. It's literally out of our hands.

mgteich · Jul 12, 2015

captain stone said:
But can Mason pass-block from LG when he rarely had to do it in college, and that's only after hoping that he's even able to overcome his height deficiency to play LG here? Or do you seriously consider wide-bodies Cannon, Fleming & Tre Jackson viable candidates for LG? Because I don't, at all.

It seems clear that Belichick must accept at least part of Brady6's argument. After all, the only LG on the squad is Kline.

I am NOT criticizing your analysis. I also don't understand who the LG's are going to be. We need a starter, a backup and an emergency backup. We need to have three players on the 53 who can play left guard. As of now, I see one. And, the one (Kline) is one that many folks would rather not see make the 53 man squad.

mgteich · Jul 12, 2015

Elijah said:
I think you've persuaded me that Wells is not ready for the 53 yet. However, I was counting him as a positional/coverage LB more so than ST, but I know just about nothing about BB's plans. Therefore, I feel obligated to add another linebacker, probably Morris based on minicamp/OTA reports, instead of Wilson even though I really want to find him a spot.

So, the issue is whether we need a 5th position linebacker in addition to Mayo, Hightower, Collins and Fletcher, rather than a special teamer.

I think that the analysis for 2015 showed that we averaged 2.2 LB's on the field. I think that this argues for four linebackers, especially since Ninkovich and Sheard might be considered linebackers. Jones certainly played OLB in the 3-4. Perhaps, Grissom and Flowers will also play some linebacker.

Almost all of us agree that we need 5 DT's: Brown, Easley, Branch, Siliga and Chris Jones. Easley can play DE is some sets.

So, how many DE/OLB/LB's do we need? I have NINE. You have TEN. How many reps do you expect the 8th, 9th and 10th DE/OLB/LB to get. In the past, these players have played on special teams, if they play at all.

BOTTOM LINE
We are discussing the last defensive player. There are many candidates.

CHOOSE FROM: Wells, Morris, Moore, Wilson, Freeney, Watson, White

Obviously, more than one of these players could squeeze onto the 53 man squad. I chose Wilson. If Hightower is injured to started the season, I expect him to be on the 53. Perhaps, then we would need an additional linebacker on the 53, which would make Wilson an unaffordable luxury.

(I don't include Vellano or Johnson on this list since I think that they are competing for a DT position, and would need to beat out Chris Jones to make the 53).

mgteich · Jul 12, 2015

Patriot Missile said:
I expected Whigham, Cherry and Izzo to retire Patriots and that didn't happen. It's literally out of our hands.

How old were these players when they left the patriots, compared to Slater's present age?

Patriot Missile · Jul 12, 2015

mgteich said:
How old were these players when they left the patriots, compared to Slater's present age?

Slater is not getting cut in his prime. It was more to the retire a Patriot comment. Not sure if Whigham was released or just signed with the Bears but he was 28 when that happened.

RayClay · Jul 12, 2015

mgteich said:
I don't think that Wells can beat out either Ebner or Wilson as a special teamer.

I'm not sure what you mean by "beat out", but i seriously doubt he's making the team without playing special teams. Sorry, I was thinking that was your pick, it was Brady 6.

To my mind, a lot of decisions will need to be made amongstrong/hybrid safeties and playing special teams will factor. It's possible someone with promise could replace someone with only special teams ability and play teams [and there are other candidates.]IMO. I think only slater is untouchable at STs.

I don't know any more than you do, but many articles have wells as a potential special teams ace who played STs a lot in college.

captain stone · Jul 12, 2015

mgteich said:
So, the issue is whether we need a 5th position linebacker in addition to Mayo, Hightower, Collins and Fletcher, rather than a special teamer...

Are people expecting Hightower to start the season on the 53 instead of on PUP?
I expect Mayo on the 53, but not Hightower.

mgteich · Jul 12, 2015

RayClay said:
I'm not sure what you mean by "beat out", but i seriously doubt he's making the team without playing special teams. Sorry, I was thinking that was your pick, it was Brady 6.

To my mind, a lot of decisions will need to be made amongstrong/hybrid safeties and playing special teams will factor. It's possible someone with promise could replace someone with only special teams ability and play teams [and there are other candidates.]IMO. I think only slater is untouchable at STs.

I don't know any more than you do, but many articles have wells as a potential special teams ace who played STs a lot in college.

Sure, Wells was a special teams ace in college. That doesn't mean that the patriots will cut Slater or Ebner to keep him. I also think that Wilson, Freeney or White would be kept instead of Wells.

mgteich · Jul 12, 2015

captain stone said:
Are people expecting Hightower to start the season on the 53 instead of on PUP?
I expect Mayo on the 53, but not Hightower.

I expect Hightower to start the season on the 53. As was the case with Gronkowski, Hightower may not ready to start the season or be anywhere near 100% for a few games. That doesn't mean that belichick will wait until half the season is over to allow Hightower to practice and have him at top speed only for the last few games of the year.

supafly · Jul 13, 2015

Brady6 said:
We should be able to slide Boyce and Tyms on to the PS.

One may argue the same for the TE Derby, although I understand the thinking behind your decision to part with Hooman.

I'd probably swap Derby (PS) out for Hooman, myself.

supafly · Jul 13, 2015

mgteich said:
I expect Hightower to start the season on the 53. As was the case with Gronkowski, Hightower may not ready to start the season or be anywhere near 100% for a few games. That doesn't mean that belichick will wait until half the season is over to allow Hightower to practice and have him at top speed only for the last few games of the year.

I don't know what information anyone would have yet to make much of a determination on the injury status of Hightower one way or the other, but we've certainly seen important players start out on PUP plenty of times in the past.

One may think they might err on the side of caution, should it come down to that kind of decision. The next month will give us a better idea.

supafly · Jul 13, 2015

Elijah said:
-Tavon Wilson is good enough to make a roster, but I don't see us keeping 6 safeties. All 5 of the safeties I have on the 53 are 100% safe. Ebner will not be cut. As someone above said, BB loves him so much that he's made the club from the tub before. He's probably viewed no differently from Slater by the team.

One thing to possibly keep in mind when attempting to compare Wilson's ST value vs. Ebner's ST value:

Tavon Wilson likely provides more ST versatility, and possibly even better on the field safety play. No one else had more ST snaps for the New England Patriots last year, and that includes ST ace Matthew Slater.

ctpatsfan77 · Jul 13, 2015

supafly said:
One thing to possibly keep in mind when attempting to compare Wilson's ST value vs. Ebner's ST value:

Tavon Wilson likely provides more ST versatility, and possibly even better on the field safety play. No one else had more ST snaps for the New England Patriots last year, and that includes ST ace Matthew Slater.

To be fair, though, Ebner missed four games with a broken finger; if you take that into account, it's almost exactly the same.

supafly · Jul 13, 2015

ctpatsfan77 said:
To be fair, though, Ebner missed four games with a broken finger; if you take that into account, it's almost exactly the same.

Personally, I'm not 100 percent sure that the spot will necessarily come down to a battle of one vs. the other, but good point about Ebner's 4 missed games.

I think the point I was trying to make is that Wilson has received more ST reps than most people realize, at least as it pertains to 2014. Perhaps Ebner's injury was a contributing factor in that.

RayClay · Jul 13, 2015

mgteich said:
Sure, Wells was a special teams ace in college. That doesn't mean that the patriots will cut Slater or Ebner to keep him. I also think that Wilson, Freeney or White would be kept instead of Wells.

Nothing means anything at this point. They drafted him and if he has any chance at all it's through special teams, if he's being groomed to be a hybrid safety.. Ebner is an only special teams player. Wilson can play some in the regular defense IMO.

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