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Patriots Interior Defensive Line Play Will Be a Key to Success in 2015


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?... but you have to remember BB has done very well with that kind of D (read & react).

It may not fair well in a lot of defensive stats, but it usually does very well in scoring D. Also you should remember that over the years there have a been a lot more "attacking defenses" that have played for losing teams that ones that played for winners.

And the goal is scoring more points than your opponents, so this attribute is directly connected to success in that area.

....
That being said I truly believe that at the heart of his soul Bill is a read and react/zone coach who believes that the game is one of errors and the longer you keep an offense on the field the more likely they will make the mistake that allows you to get off the field or turn it over. The thing is, Bill has had a LOT of success over the years even though he's frustrated a lot of fans and players

S/b "the longer you can keep the offense from scoring." Goal is the get them off the field as quickly as possible without giving up points, so your O can get back to work scoring points for you. Three and out is ideal.

That said, I agree about the game being one of errors. Minimizing mistakes is a major theme with Bill. Fumbles? Forget it! Talking about predictive factors, turnovers is the big one I'd think. Those are all arguably mistakes by the O not taking sufficient care of the ball. Minimize your mistakes, maximize the opponents.

Incidentally, that's why I still feel Butler's INT was the greatest piece of coaching ever. BB knew the tendencies, put a D on the field designed to bait Pete into calling a play that Bill had personally coached Butler about defending. Carroll took the bait, and the rook executed. Masterpiece. All because, given the chance, the Seahawks made multiple mistakes in both the play call and the execution.
 
the colts at 30th is a massive outlier and just strengthens my stance that they had no business making it to the sb that year.
 
Not sure if I'd agree with you about there lacking a definitive pattern. Within seconds it appears as though 8/14 of the past SB winners saw teams ranked in the top SIX, and 9/14 SB winners ranked in the top EIGHT.

So, basically, if you're ranked in the top 25 percent, you have a fairly decent shot. It's almost 2/3 of the past fourteen SB winners. Sounds fairly predictive to me.

Certainly a fair point. Though I wonder how much of it is correlation versus causation. Good teams (aka Super Bowl winning teams) tend to be ahead more often than not, which means opponents are passing more in late game situations, opening more opportunities for sacks.
 
That's a gloomy interpretation of my post, MG. Let me try to briefly expand on the concept I was trying for.

People tend to look at individuals to rate how good or bad a team might be. And while having good "individuals" is important, its not everything. The Pats have garnered their great success over the last 15 years by exemplifying the principal that the SUM can often be greater than the individual parts.

Another important principal to keep in mind is that in reality, around 90% of NFL players have pretty much the same athletic ability, so when you are talking about how good or bad a team is, EVERY team is pretty much equal, with most having those 4 or 5 "special guys" sprinkled through the roster. What really differentiates a team's success in such an equal environment where the margin between winning and losing are so incredibly small, are the following.

1. Coaching - more than in any other team sport, in football, coaching can have a bigger effect on a team's success or failure.

2. How well your team plays together as a unit. This involves communication, semantics, leadership, and how much fun the group is having.....as a group. The mediots call this "chemistry", but in the end its more about can you trust the guy next to you to have our back. The belief that your teammate is doing all he can to be the best he can be for this week. And again, in football, good "chemistry" is a bigger factor than in the other team sports.

3. If one of your "special" players happens to be a QB. In a game dominated by TEAM play, the anomaly is that the QB position has evolved into the one position that can make or break an offense. And finding a "special" one is not only rare, its exceedingly hard to predict. The Pats don't have an excess of "special" players, but we did manage to luck out that one of them turned out to be a QB.

So if you are rating the division's DL's for this upcoming season based on individual players, I don't think there is any question that ours would be rated #4, but that doesn't mean that it won't be a good DL. The same goes for the secondary. Remember that those "ratings" are based on what players have done in the PAST. Given the reality that the "talent" levels are all pretty close, how our team does will be more a function of the quality of the coaching, how the team takes to the coaching, and how good the QB is.

I believe that due to the quality of the depth, coaching, and the youth of some of the key players, our DL could be a lot better then they are currently rated now. I believe that the fact that along with our strength at LB, we can overcome the losses we suffered in the secondary, and end up with a defense that will be just as good as what we had last season.

So, MG, even though I lied about being brief, ;), I didn't lie about my assessment of what this DL can be. I know for a fact it can be solid with players like Siliga, Chris Jones, Branch, Chandler Jones, and Ninko. But who knows what Easley and Brown can bring to the table. Both have the potential to become "special" players. Also we have to see what effect a LB crew of Hightower, Mayo and Collins has on the DL, because I think that LB group has a chance to be extraordinary this season

I'm a little late getting to this thread. Better late than never.

1 - I was always a believer that coaches don't win games, players do. And that coaches can only lose them. That was before Belichick came along though. Also, the salary cap in a team sport such as football has made coaching more important than ever. Lucky for us.

2 - I'm pretty sure that anyone who has played team sports has had the feeling that you're describing. There are times when you can almost feel it in the air. You just feel that you're better. Unfortunately, it works the other way too. Look at the Jets.

3 - Brady and Belichick go together like soup and sandwich. They both value protecting the ball and that may be Brady's biggest strength of all. He never seems to make the bad play at the wrong time and always brings the team back. It's really no wonder that everybody hates them.

As for the DL, it will be one of the most interesting aspects of the team. This is the first time in a long time that we won't have Vince around. I hope I miss the man but not the player. He was a pretty big load in the middle.
 
Certainly a fair point. Though I wonder how much of it is correlation versus causation. Good teams (aka Super Bowl winning teams) tend to be ahead more often than not, which means opponents are passing more in late game situations, opening more opportunities for sacks.

Each time I see the point in bold it reminds me of the Pats losses to the Giants in the SBs. For some reason the Pats decided to play into the stronger pass defense of the Giants instead of going after their much weaker run defense, especially in 2011. In those situations they were never behind enough to abandon the run, but they did.
 
Certainly a fair point. Though I wonder how much of it is correlation versus causation. Good teams (aka Super Bowl winning teams) tend to be ahead more often than not, which means opponents are passing more in late game situations, opening more opportunities for sacks.

Yes, you have a very valid point as well.

I've wondered how much the turnover factor comes into play under your scenario re: being ahead, etc, since turnovers are another important variable? Thanks for the reply.
 
Each time I see the point in bold it reminds me of the Pats losses to the Giants in the SBs. For some reason the Pats decided to play into the stronger pass defense of the Giants instead of going after their much weaker run defense, especially in 2011. In those situations they were never behind enough to abandon the run, but they did.

Yeah, unfortunately we can go over this for hours and hours (or years and years ;) ), but I'm guessing that it was simply a case where they decided to stick with their gameplan.

Now...why they came up with that specific gameplan is anyone's guess, although had a certain catch been made or another third down conversion or two, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

Freaking Giants, man.
 
the colts at 30th is a massive outlier and just strengthens my stance that they had no business making it to the sb that year.

And to take it one step further, weren't they the only team in the history of the NFL who came in dead last vs. the run, then went on to win a SB?

Home field advantage via pumped up crowd noise and cranked up heat really helped them in that AFCCG, as did the piss poor job of refereeing and horrible NFC opponent. The 2006 Colts' one and only obstacle to winning the SB was overcoming the Patriots in Indy.
 
Not sure if I'd agree with you about there lacking a definitive pattern. Within seconds it appears as though 8/14 of the past SB winners saw teams ranked in the top SIX, and 9/14 SB winners ranked in the top EIGHT.

So, basically, if you're ranked in the top 25 percent, you have a fairly decent shot. It's almost 2/3 of the past fourteen SB winners. Sounds fairly predictive to me.

2/3 of past 14 Super Bowl winners are in the top 25% of almost all significant stats. For example, I would guess (without looking) than MORE than 2/3 were in the top 25% of net points scored.
 
2/3 of past 14 Super Bowl winners are in the top 25% of almost all significant stats. For example, I would guess (without looking) than MORE than 2/3 were in the top 25% of net points scored.

Yes, there are certainly some predictive categories such as turnovers, sacks, points allowed (strong defense), and points scored (strong offense). I would assume those are the 4 most common. I'm not sure what your definition of "significant" stats are, but I'm guessing that they'd include those more obvious ones.

Either way, I respectfully disagreed with the poster regarding his opinion on a lack of definitive pattern, which was the point of my response. While he was correct in pointing out that teams were all over the place and have averaged anywhere between #1 and #30 (INDY being the clear outlier in 2006 both in lack of sacks and poor run defense), there definitely seems to be proof that if you're in the top 6-8 teams in that category, you're going to win the SB more often than not (approx. 2/3 of the time based on his stats).

He brought up the excellent point of correlation vs. causation and the potential ways that may affect the stats, so that must be taken into account as well. That was not only something that I probably overlooked, but also a long time debate that we've all taken part in over the years. I think we can all agree that our chances will shoot up drastically should we get into the 50+ sack total this upcoming season.
 
Danger zone
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Not sure if I'd agree with you about there lacking a definitive pattern. Within seconds it appears as though 8/14 of the past SB winners saw teams ranked in the top SIX, and 9/14 SB winners ranked in the top EIGHT.

I agree with you. Yes, there are a number of low teen teams, as well as Indy, but there is clear pattern that indicates high relative sack numbers increase your odds of playoff success. This becomes even more pronounces when you look at the other teams listed

2001 Pitt - AFCCG
2002 Philly - NFCCG
2003 Balt - Divisional
2004 Atlanta - NFCCG
2005 Seattle - SB
2006 SD - Divisional
2007 NYG - Can't recall
2008 Dallas - Missed playoffs in week 17 loss to Philly
2009 Minny - NFCCG
2010 Pitt - SB
2011 Minn/Philly - Both missed and weren't close, oddly enough
2012 Denver/StL - Division and missed
2013 Carolina - Divisional
2014 Buffalo - Finally beat the Patriots in NE, perhaps the biggest accomplishment on this list.

So, 8 of 16 made it to at least the championship game and only four missed the playoffs altogether.

Just for kicks, I went and checked how comparative correlation to playoff success between points allowed, which you would expect to be the most predictive single defensive stat, and sacks. Out of the top 10 teams, these are the following results listed as playoffs teams and (super bowl participants)

2014
Sacks: 4 (0)
Points: 5 (2)

2013
Sacks: 7 (1)
Points: 8 (1)

2012
Sacks: 5 (0)
Points: 7 (1)

2011
Sacks: 6 (1)
Points: 4 (0)

2010
Sacks: 4 (2)
Points: 8 (2)

So, out of a possible 50 (10) teams, sacks came up with 26 (4) and points are 32 (6). It is clear which is better, but sacks grades out as far more meaningful than the usual rhetoric would have you believe.

And to take it one step further, weren't they the only team in the history of the NFL who came in dead last vs. the run, then went on to win a SB?

Yes. I'm fairly certain that they have the worst ypc run defense in the history of the league, who just had the good fortune of running into two incompetent teams and Rex Grossman.
 
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Yes. I'm fairly certain that they have the worst ypc run defense in the history of the league, who just had the good fortune of running into two incompetent teams and Rex Grossman.

Key for the Colts that year was the return of Bob Sanders. Their run defense in the playoffs was light years better than it had been in the regular season.
 
Key for the Colts that year was the return of Bob Sanders. Their run defense in the playoffs was light years better than it had been in the regular season.

That's already been discussed, and Sanders' impact is vastly overstated. He was helpful, obviously, but the improvement in run defense went well beyond him.
 
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That's already been discussed, and Sanders' impact is vastly overstated. He was helpful, obviously, but the improvement in run defense went well beyond him.

It doesn't look like it's been discussed here, but OK.

Of course it's going to be a team effort, but Sanders was pretty clearly the catalyst there.
 
He brought up the excellent point of correlation vs. causation and the potential ways that may affect the stats, so that must be taken into account as well.

That point doesn't really affect the larger point, though, of there being a correlation between sack total & overall success.
 
Of course it's going to be a team effort, but Sanders was pretty clearly the catalyst there.

He actually wasn't. It was a change in DL tactics that made the biggest difference. Now, one could argue that Indy felt comfortable making those changes because they had Sanders, but it wasn't just him as evidenced by Indy's run defense being lousy earlier in the year with Bob on the field.
 
He actually wasn't. It was a change in DL tactics that made the biggest difference. Now, one could argue that Indy felt comfortable making those changes because they had Sanders, but it wasn't just him as evidenced by Indy's run defense being lousy earlier in the year with Bob on the field.

Hmm. Well, he played the first couple of games (and tried to come back from injury early a couple times during the season before coming back full strength in the playoffs), but as we've seen more than once around these parts, it can be tricky using the first two games of the season as a point of reference. Even at the end of the regular season, the Colts were giving up 200 yards per game pretty regularly (and I think one team ran for almost 400 yards against them).

So it certainly always seemed like Sanders was a catalyst there, but maybe not. What change in DL tactics turned it around?
 
Hmm. Well, he played the first couple of games (and tried to come back from injury early a couple times during the season before coming back full strength in the playoffs), but as we've seen more than once around these parts, it can be tricky using the first two games of the season as a point of reference. Even at the end of the regular season, the Colts were giving up 200 yards per game pretty regularly (and I think one team ran for almost 400 yards against them).

So it certainly always seemed like Sanders was a catalyst there, but maybe not. What change in DL tactics turned it around?

Sanders returned at playoff strength earlier, I believe it was against the Titans and the Colts still allowed near 200 yards and 6 ypc. This isn't just a case of September or a hobbled half week, he played a full game at near full strength and the team still couldn't do anything.

The biggest change is that the DEs used more controlled rushes instead of giving up the outside on every play. Neither KC nor Baltimore even seemed to notice, KC didn't call a single PAP on first down the entire game!

Sanders made a difference, but his impact has become more legend than fact; an easy story line for the media to rally around.
 
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