Trey Flowers #2 - Darryl Roberts #4 - Top 10 Draft Steals Per PFF

Brady_to_Moss said:

Excited to see the kids out there end of this month

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Ditto...and nothing matters until we play the games. Their are no steals or bums until that time.

robertweathers said:

Lots of reasons. Declining play. Players behind him playing better.

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The defensive coaching staff agrees with you
http://360sportsllc.com/2014/12/08/rob-ninkovich-highest-percentage-of-defensive-snaps-in-nfl/

PatsGuy said:

The defensive coaching staff agrees with you
http://360sportsllc.com/2014/12/08/rob-ninkovich-highest-percentage-of-defensive-snaps-in-nfl/

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To my untrained eye he seemed to play with the same motor late in the season as he did at the start of last year but at 31, expecting him to play 94% of the snaps next year is asking a helluva lot.

Not sure if the reinforcements at DE is b/c they want to maximize Nink (more is less) or think they can get better production from the position with a more platoon-esque approach.

Between Moore, Sheard and Flowers they have some nice rotational depth in place.

Has anyone analyzed what Belichick does in the 2nd round as it relates to no PPE (proven performance escalator) for players drafted in round 1 and 2?

Is it a factor?

robertweathers said:

To my untrained eye he seemed to play with the same motor late in the season as he did at the start of last year but at 31, expecting him to play 94% of the snaps next year is asking a helluva lot.

Not sure if the reinforcements at DE is b/c they want to maximize Nink (more is less) or think they can get better production from the position with a more platoon-esque approach.

Between Moore, Sheard and Flowers they have some nice rotational depth in place.

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I would expect Ninkovich to play fewer reps. No defensive lineman should be counted on for over 94% of the defensive reps.

That being said, to consider Moore in the same sentence as Sheard seem wrong. I would think that Moore would be a longshot to even make the team. 9-10 defensive linemen is plenty. I don't think that we'll carry Moore as the 11th. We might carry an additional LB/STer or two as we often have.

FRONT SEVEN - 15
DE: Ninkovich, Jones, Sheard, Flowers, Grissom
DL: Brown, Siliga, Branch, Easley, Jones
LB: Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Fletcher, STer

Yes, I understand that the list is not a final one. There could be injuries or other changes. My point is that I don't see a place for Moore unless he beats out one of the above.

mgteich said:

I would expect Ninkovich to play fewer reps. No defensive lineman should be counted on for over 94% of the defensive reps.

That being said, to consider Moore in the same sentence as Sheard seem wrong. I would think that Moore would be a longshot to even make the team. 9-10 defensive linemen is plenty. I don't think that we'll carry Moore as the 11th. We might carry an additional LB/STer or two as we often have.

FRONT SEVEN - 15
DE: Ninkovich, Jones, Sheard, Flowers, Grissom
DL: Brown, Siliga, Branch, Easley, Jones
LB: Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Fletcher, STer

Yes, I understand that the list is not a final one. There could be injuries or other changes. My point is that I don't see a place for Moore unless he beats out one of the above.

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I agree.

The thing that Moore has going for him is his size. 6-6 and now 275. He can line up inside and outside. How much he has improved and how good he is is a different question.

It's between him and Grissom. I like Grissom as well.

robertweathers said:

It's between him and Grissom. I like Grissom as well.

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Belichick has never cut a 3rd rounder in his rookie year. So, I don't think that it's between Grisson and Moore for a roster spot. Well, I guess it is, but the decision is a foregone decision. If Moore is going to make the roster, he will need to beat out Chris Jones as the 10th DL, or fill one of the last 6 or so roster spots which are not firmly designated for particular positions.

mgteich said:

Belichick has never cut a 3rd rounder in his rookie year. So, I don't think that it's between Grisson and Moore for a roster spot. Well, I guess it is, but the decision is a foregone decision. If Moore is going to make the roster, he will need to beat out Chris Jones as the 10th DL, or fill one of the last 6 or so roster spots which are not firmly designated for particular positions.

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Yea I dunna know. It's as they say a high class problem. I like Moore. I like the size that he has put on this past off season. I like Flowers and Grissom too. ****son is interesting as well.

I think you might be right. Moore is fighting Jones for a spot at DL and not the others at DE.

Brady6 said:

Cardona will be the best LS in the NFL by the end of the season.

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I imagine Ryan Allen will drop some at first, being unaccustomed to getting the ball anywhere near his hands.

mgteich said:

Belichick has never cut a 3rd rounder in his rookie year. So, I don't think that it's between Grisson and Moore for a roster spot. Well, I guess it is, but the decision is a foregone decision. If Moore is going to make the roster, he will need to beat out Chris Jones as the 10th DL, or fill one of the last 6 or so roster spots which are not firmly designated for particular positions.

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Belichick does things he's never done every year, I'm guessing.

M

RayClay said:

I imagine Ryan Allen will drop some at first, being unaccustomed to getting the ball anywhere near his hands.

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Maybe he will jump to try and catch it and miss it that way. It's probably muscle memory for him to do that by now

RayClay said:

Belichick does things he's never done every year, I'm guessing.

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Yes, Belichick does new things every year.

That does not help us predict what that new thing is.

There are probably dozens of things that he has never done.

I personally don't think it is reasonable to believe that I can figure out what new thing Belichick will do this year. So, if Belichick has done something every year for 14 years, my best guess is that he would do this again.

mgteich said:

Yes, Belichick does new things every year.

That does not help us predict what that new thing is.

There are probably dozens of things that he has never done.

I personally don't think it is reasonable to believe that I can figure out what new thing Belichick will do this year. So, if Belichick has done something every year for 14 years, my best guess is that he would do this again.

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Some players will have to be cut or end up on the injured list [something you didn't factor in, how many got "injured" then never made it.

There are lots of younger players at pass rusher, for instance, and if one shines another, 3rd round draft pick or not, will go.

RayClay said:

There are lots of younger players at pass rusher, for instance, and if one shines another, 3rd round draft pick or not, will go.

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I get it. I understand. I've heard this argument every single year since Belichick has been here, and even before that. Many argued that White should have been cut last year. Almost no one saw anything from him in last year's camp and preseason. Most projected that his production would be what it was.

And, IMHO, so it is with Grissom. If Grissom shows nothing in camp, he will be part of the bottom of the roster, inactive almost every week. Belichick has always found room on the inactive roster for a couple of developmental players.

As is usually the case, the bottom 10 players on the roster won't get many reps unless there are significant injuries.

mgteich said:

I get it. I understand. I've heard this argument every single year since Belichick has been here, and even before that. Many argued that White should have been cut last year. Almost no one saw anything from him in last year's camp and preseason. Most projected that his production would be what it was.

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And they let go of Vereen at season's end. Who else did they have on the team last year for that spot?

I'm talking about too many people for the slots available, which is quite likely at pass rusher this year. What if Xzavier ****son and the bigger Zach Moore tear it up this year and they need to keep extra linebackers and defensive backs [for different reasons] Is BB going to look to see where everybody was drafted before he makes decisions?

IcyPatriot said:

Has anyone analyzed what Belichick does in the 2nd round as it relates to no PPE (proven performance escalator) for players drafted in round 1 and 2?

Is it a factor?

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I doubt it. The PPE raises the salary in the fourth year to the lowest RFA tender amount. It basically tacks on close to $1M in salary, while the second rounders typically have about $1M in signing bonus.

BTW, as a side note, two Patriots have earned the PPE so far: Alfonzo Dennard (since released, and claimed off waivers, so he's still earning it) and Chris Jones (who was claimed off waivers, and therefore still on his rookie deal). Bryan Stork should become the third this year.

robertweathers said:

Lots of reasons. Declining play. Players behind him playing better.

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One of his legs could fall off too. So far, I've seen no decline in his play. But carry on. The Who Will Replace Ninko bandwagon rolls on.

rochrist said:

One of his legs could fall off too. So far, I've seen no decline in his play. But carry on. The Who Will Replace Ninko bandwagon rolls on.

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One thing is clear. He is not playing 94% of the snaps again.

robertweathers said:

...and when Nink moves on, it'll be a sad day. Nink has another 2 years in him. Just not sure if its here.

Chandler Jones contract situation also bears watching. It's 50/50 that both he and Nink are back next year.

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I wouldn't bet against Ninkovich playing here in both 2015 and 2016. Because even with that pay raise we gave him he is payed very little for his play. He'd have to decline a lot in his play for him not to be worth his new money in 2015 or 2016 as we'd only save $1,3m by releasing him this year, and 1.37$ in 2016. Even as a backup that is a bargain unless he completely falls off in his play. Sure, he might not play 94% of the plays any more. But is that really a bad thing? Very few ends play that many snaps, and it's good to have a fresh rotation of ends that can get to the QB all game. Like I said earlier, he's so cheap. So it's not like we've payed him $15M a season and has to have him out there every single snap for him to be worth it.

Now that spikes is out of the picture, there isn't much of a doubt in my mind that Ninkovich could even adapt to a big MLB role to make room at DE/OLB and get our best players on the field. I'm not saying it should be plan A or B.... or H, just that a versatile elephant role has a lot of flexibility, like Vrabel was able to do for us. It's not the perfect scenario, but injuries happen (see mayo's history), and "specialists" could earn their time on the field (Sheard, Flowers).

He's one of my personal favorites, but Nink has never been the strongest link on defense. He's one of those players that is able to step in and drastically upgrade the weakest link by doing his job. His value to this D can't be denied.