football outsiders article on defense

http://patspropaganda.com/post/122957809885/football-outsiders-2014-pressure-plays-defenses

Published july 01

Mike dussault of patspropaganda brought it to my attention, so i linked his write up.

Thought it was kind of an interesting set of stats that might make a good messageboard convo.

Thought it was particularly interesting with the whole secondary drama unfolding.

Interesting hypothesis. It probably would have gotten more discussion in a different time.

Well, can he rush the passer?

I feel like this is the Mike Felger brand argument going back a decade. The problem with it: even the best D's in the league get pressure in a small(ish) percentage of dropbacks, and 'pressure' can also result in 'gaps' when a run is coming.

No doubt this front 7 can help cover for the secondaries deficiencies, at least that's what we're all hoping. But even if we double the Pats pressure numbers from last season and you're still seeing 55%+ of dropbacks where there's no pressure. Secondary still needs to step up.

I have NO DOUBT our pass rush will be much improved this season, and the run defense should be pretty stout as well. What remains to be seen is how the secondary shakes out...time will tell, I think it's the biggest question going into camp because if they can cobble together a decent secondary this defense could be downright scary. If not though, all the pass rush in the world won't amount to squat.

In general, though, pressure rate hasn't shown much year-to-year consistency in reflecting how defenses will perform:

Click to expand...

There's your money quote, part 1, from the article.

Since 2010, the correlation between pressure DVOA and overall defensive DVOA is 0.38, while the correlation between non-pressure DVOA and overall DVOA is 0.80.

Click to expand...

There's your money quote, part 2, from the article


Coverage >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Pressure


And that's really what the article is saying, which is reinforced with this:

Among teams with a top-12 No. 1 CB, the average non-pressure DVOA rank was 14.4, while the median rank was 12.5. "Above average" doesn't sound like much, but that does sure beat what happened to teams with a poor No. 1 CB. For teams with a bottom-12 top corner, the average non-pressure DVOA rank was 18.5, but the median ranking was 21.

Click to expand...

New England will have to swim against the tide this season, unless the CBs significantly improve upon their recent levels of play.

so back to 2011 level of frustation with D?

juny said:

so back to 2011 level of frustation with D?

Click to expand...

Since Arrington was a starting corner on that team and not even good enough to make this roster, you'd have to think it's not quite that bad, at least in Bill's eyes. I've seen nothing to indicate Arrington is any worse as a player than he was in 2011.

Concussion Protocol said:

Since Arrington was a starting corner on that team and not even good enough to make this roster, you'd have to think it's not quite that bad, at least in Bill's eyes. I've seen nothing to indicate Arrington is any worse as a player than he was in 2011.

Click to expand...

All this wailing about the CB position is just misplaced. Certainly Darelle Revis is/was a superior CB.

But what BB has going into this season is wholly unrecognized in comparison to the Superbowl club of 2011.

That club had a truly horrendous secondary at all four positions. But this upcoming club will have a good if not fine Safety contingent, with what appears to be fine depth. The Safeties are now smart, experienced and athletically able, as attested by their exhaulted draft position selections, unlike 2011. BB has said that Safety is a most difficult position to play well, while CB merely needs athletes.

All the CBs who are no longer here, were purposely LET GO by Belechick. Only DR was an unaffordable CAP casualty. BB is not known for shooting himself in the foot, as he patiently builds his teams. Outside of Jeremy Mincey and a few developmental QBs, who needed an opportunity to play, I can't think of any who did well elsewhere. Why did BB let them go??

I suspect that BB has purposely upgraded the CB position with youthful, size and speed. His remaining CB candidates have both, while those departing had some deficiency in that department. .

Meanwhile for the first time in a long time, the Defensive line and Linebacker slots are all filled to overflowing with able veterans, or talented and touted young players.

My prediction ... by season's end, CB will be a reasonably secure position,and this will be a very good Defense.

Belieive it or not, the Offense is where the Pats may find themselves wanting, even though there are many exemplary pieces there. RBBC is a BB aim, and he has that in numbers, but perhaps not in sufficient talent. Brady si the catalyst for exception total production,as always.

The receiving corps in its totality, X, Y, Z and TEs and H backs, save receiving RB, is deep, competent, if not athletically touted. BB likes to spread the ball around, so few skill position players can produce staggering production figures, that leads to Media and Pro bowl recognition.

Relax, all is NOT LOST.

This year will be a year of fitting the future outstanding Offensive line together,and proving the depth at teh skill positions.

AzPatsFan said:

All this wailing about the CB position is just misplaced. Certainly Darelle Revis is/was a superior CB.

But what BB has going into this season is wholly unrecognized in comparison to the Superbowl club of 2011.

That club had a truly horrendous secondary at all four positions. But this upcoming club will have a good if not fine Safety contingent, with what appears to be fine depth. The Safeties are now smart, experienced and athletically able, as attested by their exhaulted draft position selections, unlike 2011. BB has said that Safety is a most difficult position to play well, while CB merely needs athletes.

All the CBs who are no longer here, were purposely LET GO by Belechick. Only DR was an unaffordable CAP casualty. BB is not known for shooting himself in the foot, as he patiently builds his teams. Outside of Jeremy Mincey and a few developmental QBs, who needed an opportunity to play, I can't think of any who did well elsewhere. Why did BB let them go??

I suspect that BB has purposely upgraded the CB position with youthful, size and speed. His remaining CB candidates have both, while those departing had some deficiency in that department. .

Meanwhile for the first time in a long time, the Defensive line and Linebacker slots are all filled to overflowing with able veterans, or talented and touted young players.

My prediction ... by season's end, CB will be a reasonably secure position,and this will be a very good Defense.

Belieive it or not, the Offense is where the Pats may find themselves wanting, even though there are many exemplary pieces there. RBBC is a BB aim, and he has that in numbers, but perhaps not in sufficient talent. Brady si the catalyst for exception total production,as always.

The receiving corps in its totality, X, Y, Z and TEs and H backs, save receiving RB, is deep, competent, if not athletically touted. BB likes to spread the ball around, so few skill position players can produce staggering production figures, that leads to Media and Pro bowl recognition.

Relax, all is NOT LOST.

This year will be a year of fitting the future outstanding Offensive line together,and proving the depth at teh skill positions.

Click to expand...

I'm not believing it

Whether you choose to believe it or not, is entirely up to you.

My perspective and the facts tend to support my position. While you have merely joined the yearly Chorus singing their annual popular refrain "Woe is Us. Doom draws nigh!".

I'll add a few more observations. In 2011 the Pats only sacked the QB 31 times. In 2014 they sack total was in the lower 40s, even without Easley and Sheard, Brown, Grissom, Flowers etc. The LB was still heavily dependent on only Mayo, and some what adequate scrubs. Now there are three young LB stars to share the load, Mayo, Hightower and Collins with Flowers/Grissom perhaps able to add something.

On your side, is the aging and attention of one Tom Brady whose availability and attention span has perhaps been negatively affected. Without his "A game", the Offense may not be as productive, nor the absence of Superstars at WR or RB be un-felt. Relying on Polo for 4 games might tend to bring the Pats back to their AFCE competitors.

I expect however, that any suspension will not take place until the following season, as the lawyers take as much time as they can, to maximize their billing time.

OTOH, Brady seems to thrive on adversity, and when under pressure.

AzPatsFan said:

Whether you choose to believe it or not, is entirely up to you.

My perspective and the facts tend to support my position. While you have merely joined the yearly Chorus singing their annual popular refrain "Woe is Us. Doom draws nigh!".
.

Click to expand...

Wat

No, the facts support MY perspective