Bobsyouruncle
Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
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Since It's kind of slow around here I thought I would share some info I used for a statistics class a while back. I was running the numbers on whether you could predict the Super Bowl winner based solely off choosing the better defense (1970-2014), which was interesting but not the point of this post. At the end I compared my results to Vegas' success at picking winners.
Below is a graph of the biggest to the smallest point spreads. In orange is when Vegas was wrong about the winner (for instance, STL was favored 14 points vs NE but lost. Some interesting observations:
Vegas is right a lot. 32 ouy of 45 times (71%). But only in who is the winner, the point spreads are all over the place.
If you had simply picked the better defense to win every game you would be right 29 of 45 times (64%)
The greatest upset in SB history was 2001 NE.
Last year is the first game with no spread.
Below is a graph of the biggest to the smallest point spreads. In orange is when Vegas was wrong about the winner (for instance, STL was favored 14 points vs NE but lost. Some interesting observations:
Vegas is right a lot. 32 ouy of 45 times (71%). But only in who is the winner, the point spreads are all over the place.
If you had simply picked the better defense to win every game you would be right 29 of 45 times (64%)
The greatest upset in SB history was 2001 NE.
Last year is the first game with no spread.
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