What if Brady folds?

robertweathers said:

I'm not making excuses. As a fan I hate that Bob caved. I sent the letter that I wrote. I didn't receive back a reply. I expected as much but it still pissed me off.

However it frustrates me that people fail to acknowledge that by appeal process was a waste of time and suing the NFL was a long painful road. As a businessman who is not worth $4.3b, I understand why he did what he did. Billy Sullivan sued the NFL in an antitrust suit and won. Great. How did that work out?

I'm trying to bring a little balance to this forum. If you don't agree that's fine.

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Appealing was not a waste of time.

Appealing would not have been a waste of time.
Let's say RG told Bob don't bother.
Still appeal.

Not appealing: Chance of draft penalty amelioration = 0
Appealing: Chance >= 0

Since Kraft never went there, he will never know what unexpectedly might have happened.

The canard that an appeal would damage the net worth of the NFL is ludicrous.

What if Brady lost his appeal and then admitted that he was behind the deflate scheme? What would Patriot nation say then?

Appealing would have gotten Robert Kraft several more opportunities to state that the Patriots are absolutely innocent of the charges.

Yes, I expect Goodell then says "tough, appeal denied" and any real relief would have had to come via the courts,

But the difference between caving in completely vs. standing by your guns is significant.

RK likely would have given up after the appeal and NOT gone to court, but I'd respect him a whole lot more for restating, forcefully, our innocence, even if he then said he didn't want to drag this case through the courts for years at an expense of tens of millions of dollars.

Fawn Lebowitz said:

What if Brady lost his appeal and then admitted that he was behind the deflate scheme? What would Patriot nation say then?

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I'd say, in this "scheme",

Brady needs to explain how the guy marked the 2 balls that were deflated by 0.3 psi, so that he could tell them apart from the 7 that were not changed and the 2 that were inflated by 0.3 psi.

All with gauges that are accurate to +/- 0.4 psi.

PatsWickedPissah said:

Appealing would not have been a waste of time.
Let's say RG told Bob don't bother.
Still appeal.

Not appealing: Chance of draft penalty amelioration = 0
Appealing: Chance >= 0

Since Kraft never went there, he will never know what unexpectedly might have happened.

The canard that an appeal would damage the net worth of the NFL is ludicrous.

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Not only that, but if you disagree with the punishment and feel it is unjust and ultimately decide not to sue, AT LEAST DON'T FRIGGIN' HUG THE PUTRID SONOVA*****!!

k thanx.

'It's about honor, it's about respect' of the ones that care about him. I don't think Brady is fighting for just himself and as a result, he isn't giving up...nor should he. Legacy is important and it will something for which a fight will be waged.

Fawn Lebowitz said:

What if Brady lost his appeal and then admitted that he was behind the deflate scheme? What would Patriot nation say then?

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I would ask how they were able to deflate the footballs without lowering the psi below what it should have been due to weather.
I would ask how they commuted the laws of science and then wonder why superheroes who can do that would be worried about the psi in a football when instead they could be ruling the world.
I wold then wonder how many times I have repeated today, since Dorito Dink has probably also solved the space-time continuum.

Fawn Lebowitz said:

What if Brady lost his appeal and then admitted that he was behind the deflate scheme? What would Patriot nation say then?

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Then I'd say Tom was a liar because he had stated otherwise previously.

I'd have some physics questions for him.

I would not say it to his face of course.

Fawn Lebowitz said:

What if Brady lost his appeal and then admitted that he was behind the deflate scheme? What would Patriot nation say then?

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Probably something like, "well, you cooperated with a bunch of bozos who couldn't even deflate the footballs so that they would be less than the Ideal Gas Law predicts".

Get real. Best evidence is in. The balls weren't deflated.

correcting my earlier statement, will full supporting information...

What do you ask Tom Brady if he admits that "he did it"?


Q1: Tom, how did you have "the deflator" mark which three of the 11 footballs were going to be made 0.12-0.42 psi too low, which four of the 11 footballs were going to be made 0.03-0.78 psi too high, and which four of the 11 footballs tested were going to be not touched/altered at all?

Q2: Why would you have wanted three types of footballs in the game, in terms of pressure ranges, when you do not even pick what footballs are to be put in play & when (a ref swaps out a football when it seems to him to be too wet)?

Q3: Did you call him "the deflator" 27.3% of the time, "the inflator" 36.4% of the time, and "hey you" the other 36.4% of the time?

Supporting info:

Wells report, page 8, readings of PATRIOTS footballs with the gauge that the ref said he had used in pregame pressure measurements:

Football #1 expect 11.32-11.52, found 11.80 - HIGH by 0.28 psi
Football #2 expect 11.32-11.52, found 11.20 -LOW by 0.12 psi
Football #3 expect 11.32-11.52, found 11.50 - compliant
Football #4 expect 11.32-11.52, found 11.00-LOW by 0.32 psi
Football #5 expect 11.32-11.52, found 11.45- compliant
Football #6 expect 11.32-11.52, found 11.95 - HIGH by 0.42 psi
Football #7 expect 11.32-11.52, found 12.30 - HIGH by 0.78 psi
Football #8 expect 11.32-11.52, found 11.55 - HIGH by 0.03 psi
Football # 9 expect 11.32-11.52, found 11.35 - compliant
Football #10 expect 11.32-11.52, found 10.90 -LOW by 0.42 psi
Football #11 expect 11.32-11.52, found 11.35 – compliant

Note: 11.32-11.52 range was calculated in the Wells report, see page 113: “the Ideal Gas Law predicts that the Patriots balls should have measured between 11.52 and 11.32 psi at the end of the first half”

keep in mind that in Table 10 on page 39 of the EXPONENT supplement to the Wells report (page 199 of the entire pdf), the actual ideal gas law calculation for 70 degrees to 48 degrees is a 1.13 psi pressure drop, thus 11.37 should be the center of the expected range, NOT 11.42. Of course, 11.42 as a prediction makes the Patriots look worse than the lower number, 11.37 would, if you are looking to say that they had under-inflated footballs

If the range were 11.27-11.47, you'd have to bump another "normal" one into the 'high" category


Holy moly, 5 of 11 footballs overinflated: looks like "inflategate" to me!

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

keep in mind that in Table 10 on page 39 of the EXPONENT supplement to the Wells report (page 199 of the entire pdf), the actual ideal gas law calculation for 70 degrees to 48 degrees is a 1.13 psi pressure drop, thus 11.37 should be the center of the expected range, NOT 11.42. Of course, 11.42 as a prediction makes the Patriots look worse than the lower number, 11.37 would, if you are looking to say that they had under-inflated footballs

If the range were 11.27-11.47, you'd have to bump another "normal" one into the 'high" category


Holy moly, 5 of 11 footballs overinflated: looks like "inflategate" to me!

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I appreciate your careful reading and analysis of the Wells report. I am surprised that nobody seems to be taking into account statistical variation (e.g., confidence intervals for each measurement). Exponent did, after all, rely on statistical significance to support their interpretation.

Here's data & analysis taking into account the halftime heating effect, 4 minutes for the Patriots, 10 minutes for the Colts:

Patriots footballs*:
* with the gauge that the ref said he had used in pregame pressure measurements

11.80
11.20
11.50
11.00
11.45
11.95
12.30
11.55
11.35
10.90
11.35

Ideal gas law prediction, 70 to 48 degrees: 1.13 psi drop, or from 12.50 (pregame) to 11.37 psi (beginning of halftime)

4 minutes of warming at halftime, should add 0.30 psi (for warming curve see fig 22 on page 204 of the Wells report, assume average of wet & dry curves)

Expected value, accounting for 4 min of warming: 11.67 psi predicted
Average value*: 11.49 psi found


Colts footballs*:
* with the gauge that the ref said he had used in pregame pressure measurements
12.35
12.30
12.95 - Wells report speculates that 2 readings were switched & this reading may be 12.50
12.15

Colts beginning value: 13.0 psi

expected value 13.00 - 1.13 = 11.87 psi at the beginning of halftime
Add 0.70 psi for 10 minutes of warming (for warming curve see fig 22 on page 204 of the Wells report, assume average of wet & dry curves)
11.87 + 0.70 = 12.57 psi predicted
average value: 12.44 psi found**

** if you accept the Wells report contention that two readings were swapped, this value becomes 12.33 psi

conclusion:
The Colts footballs, like the Patriots footballs, seem to generally obey the ideal gas law and become non-compliant with the 12.5-13.5 guideline with normal weather-related cooling. The pressure drop for each set of footballs is about 0.1 -0.2 psi more than predicted, possibly due to non-ideal behavior such as a wet footballs, which may expand and may also experience transient “evaporative cooling” during the early stages of the halftime break.