The "Evidence" on Brady

AndyJohnson said:

Even worse, they asked Brady and Jastremski about these calls and they described them as Brady making sure the guy who is never in the spotlight is doing OK with the attention, and this proved to be evidence against Brady because the only 2 people involved in the conversation were judged to be lying.

In what reality can you ask 2 people what they said with no one to support or contradict it and then use the opposite of what they said as evidence because you find them telling you what they discussed to not be credible?
Anything that conflicted with the predetermined finding was judged to be not credible, and then offered as evidence of guilt.

You wonder why Brady would hesitate to give his cell phone over?
This 'investigation' consists of questioning people, deeming their responses a lie, and calling that the evidence of wrongdoing.

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Its like Alice in Wonderland reality, thats what reality this is... up is down and down is up, left is right and right is left.

DefenseRules said:

WTH is this? WE ARE TALKING ABOUT FRIGGIN AIR PRESSURE IN A FOOTBALL NOT MASS MURDUR!! This is beyond STUPID. You are all analyzing this like Brady is a serial killer. The NFL SUCKS. It is being run by a moron with an agenda. Your precious Jets can't beat em or stop em on the field eh Roger? So destroy their reputation off of it. I so hope someone kicks that piece of trash commissioner where it hurts (keeping it clean, I would rather say something worse). I hate that man. I don't know him but I hate him and I don't trust him. Shame on Bob Kraft for hanging his QB out to dry, and shame on some in the fan base for having so little faith.

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Tell us how you really feel

AndyJohnson said:

This is very troubling to me. I disagree but could understand the conclusion that there is reasonable suspicion that McNally may have done something to the balls, if you accept their finding (which is shaky) that science does not explain the entire effect. McNally was weak in his responses and was out of sight with the balls. In other words if this were a criminal case I would say they have enough information to pursue and indictment against McNally to take it to trial. I don't think they have anywhere near enough to convict, and the science data would certainly be refuted as well.

But, the really troubling part is wrapping Brady up in this.
The sum total of evidence about Brady are text messages. These text messages are explained by Jastremski and McNally and Wells simply says their explanation is a lie and his interpretation of them is more likely. This includes a text that they said was not about Brady but Wells dismissed that because the one before was about Brady.
The explanation was detailed, sensible and corroborated. (This was about the friend of Jastremski, and McNallys sick sister and the season tickets).
Wells 'ruled' every word that Jastremski and McNally both said (and independently told the same story) AND the corroboration.

This adds up to the 'more probably than not' finding is that Wells belief of the meaning of a text is more probable than McNally, Jastremski, Brady and the friend all giving the same, different story.
In other words Wells is so prescient that he can read a text and tell that all 4 people involved are lying about what it meant.

How in the world, can you penalize Tom Brady on that flimsy evidence?

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The key issue here is the objectivity of the fact finder.
Did anyone take issue with having Wells make this call or was it a unilateral decision by Goodell? If everybody consented to have this guy do the investigation and agreed to accept the result, the Pats and Brady really screwed themselves.

YOUGOTMOSSED said:

The key issue here is the objectivity of the fact finder.
Did anyone take issue with having Wells make this call or was it a unilateral decision by Goodell? If everybody consented to have this guy do the investigation and agreed to accept the result, the Pats and Brady really screwed themselves.

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Its a good point because Wells was charged with investigation, and Goodell is charged with drawing conclusion, however it seems likely Roger will use Wells mind in place of his own

AndyJohnson said:

Its a good point because Wells was charged with investigation, and Goodell is charged with drawing conclusion, however it seems likely Roger will use Wells mind in place of his own

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Does anyone know the answer to that one for sure? Did Kraft ever blather anything about Wells being a "great guy with infallible judgement" or anything stupid like that?

nothing matters right now........when goodell renders a decision, then we will enter the most interesting part of the entire ordeal .... the lawyers who will be lining up to rip wells, the report, and goodell apart

I just had a realization. If I'm to give Wells the benefit of the doubt that he didn't have the conclusion pre-written, then a possible narrative is:
1. Wells gets scientific testing. The tester tells Wells that weather conditions alone do not account for the drop -- either be incompetence (not taking into account rain properly, or choosing what gauge was used as initial reading, or realizing Colts balls aren't a control sample) -- or thru malice (as they've been in the past accused of proving what their client wanted, and in this case they knew their client was investigating intentional deflation and assumed the client wanted that)
2. Wells now has scientific evidence to show that intentional deflation occured -- since Wells does not understand that the testers were incompetant or biased
3. Wells now assumes the Patriots are lieing
4. Wells assumes Brady knew based on his interpration of all evidence thru a filter of 'balls were intentionally deflated'

I wonder what would've happenned if multiple science firms were used (as you can't rely on a single person/company to get it right) -- and if those firms were not given the half-time measurements, what would've been the conclusion. Based on youtubers, we already know experiments have shown a greater drop in PSI than was recorded -- so it is possible nothing illegal happenned.

by the way, there is no evidence on brady

which should make the appeal process interesting and fun

The way the report is documented really makes Brady look like he's lying.

Brady's play, from the get-go, should have been: he told the equipment guy that he wants his footballs at the lowest end of the legal limit. What the equipment guy did after Brady told him, was on his own accord.

Unless he's got direct texts or emails to McNally or anyone else letting them know he wants it under the legal limit, it would have been easier to deflect all these other insinuations.

voluntarysaftey said:

I wonder what would've happenned if multiple science firms were used (as you can't rely on a single person/company to get it right) -- and if those firms were not given the half-time measurements, what would've been the conclusion.

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Science and the scientific method has worked for centuries. The NFL did not follow it during the AFCCG, so it is impossible to draw any firm conclusions from the referees' recollections. The best that can be done is to take the 15 measurements that they have and ask, "Were these measurements more probable than not a result of physics."

In order to answer that question, you need to make a series of assumptions (initial ball pressure at the lower bound, inside room temp/humidity, outside room temp/humidity, etc) and then list the possible errors (gauge calibration, effect of observation on measurement, procedural errors, temp/humidity errors, etc.). When you are done, you can then say something along the lines of the following: "The average ball started at 12.5psi with an error of plus or minus 0.25psi and at halftime they measured 11psi with an error of plus or minus 0.5psi. We found that N balls were outside the known error envelope, with X being higher and Y being lower. We ran a series of experiments with a control group using factory fresh balls and followed this by running experiments where we varied the ball preparation, measurement device, measurement procedure, the wetness of the surface, etc.) and found that each variable had the following impact on pressure."

Lay out all the facts transparently and let ANYONE see if they can reproduce the findings. If they can, then the science is good. If they cannot, then it is flawed. The Wells report ran a series of experiments - are they repeatable? Do they account for all the relevant variables and errors? Were the "suspect" halftime readings outside of the experimental findings? If so, more than by the likely error? If so, how significantly outside of that error - two standard deviations? What was the confidence interval?

Note: I have not had time to read the report yet, since I am trying to make a buck - but I will. What I've heard second hand sounds like faux science.

JJC. you are missing a critical piece of the equation. What do the Patriots do to the balls to get them :game" ready and did this have any effect on the PSI. My guess is, the Patriots know how to eek out an extra .5+ PSI by making them run hot prior to being measured. (which would still fall within league rules).

The thing I don't see with Wells, is he never inverts the story and them argues the other side. He just makes his assumption without (I don't know for sure) saying this is what /i see and a reasonable person should agree that these things don't add up. He basically just postulates his theory without directly saying why. He needs to give us the exact breadcrumbs rather than throw it all out there and make us guess.

Hatchet job from inside the NFL office is what it feels like and I would like to see the report taken to task. Problem is, Goodell is relying on public opinion and we're doomed for that reason every day. The masses don't understand what it takes to win and can't comprehend the Patriots continued usccess. Thus, the most reasonable explanation (to them) is that they must cheat. and that any cheat means they gain such a hug advantage to overcome parity.

More to come on this, I need to think it through, but that's the basics. People want to believe that the patriots are ordinary and aren't just simply a better team.

I don't even accept that the science reveals the balls were underinflated. And neither does Exponent, “In sum, the data did not provide a basis for us to determine with absolute certainty whether there was or was not tampering as the analysis of such data ultimately is dependent upon assumptions and information that is not certain.”

MIT and Harvard physicists explained the reduction in pressure. A Headsmart Labs engineer demonstrated it, as did many grade school kids. My own amatuer calculations explain it.

The fact is, there is no evidence that a crime occured. How can you punish someone using weak circumstantial evidence for commiting a crime when you do not know a crime even occurred? Such garbage!

Bella*chick said:

It should be clear to anyone with any sense that Wells was strongly encouraged to nail these guys however they could. And they had almost nothing so they just kept fishing for more. And people think Brady should have just turned over his phone with all its contents to a bunch of guys who refused to accept any explanations for text messages? Yeah, RIGHT.

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Laughable that he expected Brady to give him his phones like he was some hotshot ****ing criminal prosecutor working for the police. comes off as a power-hungry ****head who felt jilted by Brady. F him and his logic-raping report.

I've ssud this before, but the evidence of Brady's involvement is hearsay that he complained about a 16psi ball. That's it, that's his only link.

Even if I believed something happened to the balls (and I don't). Tying it to Brady seems like some sort of publicity stunt. They want to fry a big fish.

JJC said:

Note: I have not had time to read the report yet, since I am trying to make a buck - but I will. What I've heard second hand sounds like faux science.

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It's a mixture. They sort of explain the ideal gas law, say that they did the calculation, and actually get the RIGHT ANSWER based on their temperature assumptions: a 1.13 psi pressure drop WILL HAPPEN due to temperature.

Then they discuss how the Patriots footballs dropped (on average) 1.01 psi or 1.39 psi, depending upon which gauge is used.

Then they discuss how the colts footballs dropped (on average) 0.56 psi or 0.37 psi, depending upon which gauge is used.

ANY THINKING SCIENTIST WOULD THEN SAY "wow, why would the Colts footballs have violated the ideal gas law? 0.4 is NOTHING like 1.13!

ANY THINKING SCIENTIST WOULD THEN SAY "those footballs must have warmed up before their pressure was measured, which was JUST BEFORE HALFTIME ENDED. VOILA! 10 minutes in a heated room= partially warmed-up footballs!

Less pressure drop because they were looked at LAST. Which is the reason for the statistically significant difference. THE ONLY REAL SCIENTIST, the Princeton prof, verified merely that there indeed was statistical significance.

There indeed was, just not for the reason that they propose.

How they slept through that, who knows?

AndyJohnson said:

Simply the fact that Brady, as a vocal union leader cited reluctance to set a precedent for all of his union members when they collectively bargained against subpoena power should have caused Wells to state that this was a reasonable response by Brady and should in no way be construed as suspicious.

IF it were an independent unbiased investigation.

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Or as grounds for some sort of penalty, enhanced or not.

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

There indeed was, just not for the reason that they propose.

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@Palm Beach Pats Fan - Exactly the kind of stuff that I hear that's been driving me nuts. There is no discipline applied in any of the analysis that I have heard. Just holes that any THINKING analyst would drive trucks through, like the ones you cited. Really, this isn't quantum physics or rocket science - it's basic thermodynamics. That science has been around for 350 years and you can do it with high school mathematics.

I continue to have credentialed professionals say "Don't give me your science, I know they're guilty." My only comeback is "Then you are a willfully ignorant f*#ing moron who belongs in the dark ages without heat, electricity, or a car." I am not getting invited to dinners or parties much any more!

IllegalContact said:

nothing matters right now........when goodell renders a decision, then we will enter the most interesting part of the entire ordeal .... the lawyers who will be lining up to rip wells, the report, and goodell apart

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I hope so, but i'm not confident in that anymore. I was 100% sure the report would totally vindicate the Pats, and we all know how that worked out.

JJC said:

@Palm Beach Pats Fan - Exactly the kind of stuff that I hear that's been driving me nuts. There is no discipline applied in any of the analysis that I have heard. Just holes that any THINKING analyst would drive trucks through, like the ones you cited. Really, this isn't quantum physics or rocket science - it's basic thermodynamics. That science has been around for 350 years and you can do it with high school mathematics.

I continue to have credentialed professionals say "Don't give me your science, I know they're guilty." My only comeback is "Then you are a willfully ignorant f*#ing moron who belongs in the dark ages without heat, electricity, or a car." I am not getting invited to dinners or parties much any more!

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And simple physics show that the Warren Commission report on the Kennedy assassination was pure garbage, yet it's the explanation that universally accepted and anyone who questions it is disregarded as a conspiracy kook. That involved the assassination of a US president; this is about a football game.

I'm not optimistic that science and logic are going to prevail here.

YOUGOTMOSSED said:

I'm not optimistic that science and logic are going to prevail here.

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Which is why I have adopted the sig below to my posts. Welcome the Dark Ages, my brothers and sistsers. Another Golden Age of reason and science has is passing quietly into the night.