PBPF,
Have you written any analysis of the scientific part of the report? I'd love to see your take on it.
in another thread, but....
points:
1) The scientists hired to study the issue properly calculated the expected pressure drop that occurred due to temperature, assuming an inflation temperature and a halftime temperature. There result was that footballs
will lose
1.13 psi in pressure due to the temperature drop.
2) The officials measured the drop in pressure of the Patriots footballs. Using one gauge they measured a drop of
1.39 psi. Using another gauge they measured
1.01 psi. Average:
1.20 psi.
3) We have no way of knowing which of the two gauges, used interchangeably, was used in the pregame analysis where they were set to 12.5 psi by the gauge. Based upon the fact that one gauge always reads 0.4 psi below the other one, and that we don't know which one (if either) was accurate, then the Patriots footballs, pregame, may TRULY have been set at anywhere in the range of 12.1-12.9 psi.
4) The officials measured the drop in pressure four of the Colts footballs. Using one gauge they measured a drop of
0.37 psi. Using another gauge they measured
0.56 psi.
5) The drop in pressure of the Colts footballs is thus inconsistent with the valid scientific prediction that footballs
will lose,
1.13 psi in pressure, just due to the temperature drop.
6) For some reason,
the fact that the Colts footballs apparently did not obey the laws of physics has not, to this point, concerned anyone. It should. But it is easy to explain! The officials didn't even have time to test all of the Colts footballs because the 13-minute halftime was ending. The Colts footballs had been in the
heated room for at least 10 minutes before they were ever tested. They warmed up, maybe halfway to room temperature, which would explain a measurement of about half of the drop that was expected: 1.13/2 =
0.52 psi.
7) The Colts partly warmed-up footballs were used, inappropriately, as the
"control" for the earlier-analyzed Patriots footballs. A huge degree of importance was placed into the fact that the difference in the drop in pressure of the Colts footballs vs. the drop in pressure of the Patriots footballs was
statistically significant. The key difference in the order in which the two groups of footballs were analyzed, as the latter group had plenty of time to warm up toward room temperature as the larger group was measured in duplicate. This ordering of events could
fully account for this statistical significance.
8) The most puzzling evidence is the relatively higher variability of the Patriots footballs. That looks suspicious. But possible explanations, such as that perhaps some Patriots footballs were used in a heavy downpour and some were not used at all, were never considered. They did not consider the "wet football factor" at all, for that matter.
9) Pressure gauges used by the refs varied in
accuracy by about
0.4 psi. The Patriots footballs dropped in pressure in the range of
1.01-1.39 psi. This range
encompasses the expected number, based only on temperature, of a
1.13 psi drop. The accuracy of the gauge is
+0.4, so saying that 1.13 psi is truly different than 1.20 psi (or even 1.39 psi) is shaky at best.
I do not see scientific grounds for saying that the Patriots footballs were, on average, outside of expected norms, just based upon the data provided.
The scientific basis for such a serious accusation falls short of anywhere near the level of certainty that one would reasonably demand in order to issue a serious punishment, or any punishment at all, frankly.
