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You are free to believe that the scouting services available to other teams and to some of the media ALL produce nonsense on a regular basis. Obviously, some players end up being drafted higher or lower than predicted. Often this is due to team interviews with players.

Apparently, we should NOT consider Belichick a master when he find nuggets in the late round. After all, these are really MISSES for Belichick, since if he really thought that these players had promise, he would have drafted them earlier.
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In the end, everyone is free to look at results. For example, we can look at all the defensive backs that the Belichick has drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, and those drafted by other top teams. We can also look at the "ratings" that the media put on those players. I guess that since the patriots have won more than anyone, I should expect to see that when Belichick "reached", that is, chose a player higher than his rating would dictate, that Belichick was right.

I'll wait while folks find this list of defensive backs that Belichick has reached on and SHOWN THEM by making them pro bowlers.

We've been to this rodeo before. This was a terrible draft for defensive backs, and Belichick did well by getting one that projects to being a solid backup and special teamer. And just BTW, I'm OK with that result.

And yet, 11 of the mock drafts by major news outlets could only get 75/352 of the picks right in the First Round alone.

The winner, got a whole 12 out of 32 correct. He had Agholor falling to us at 32 and Malcom Brown going to the Lions at 23.

I imagine he got even more accurate in later rounds.

The simple fact is, a player gets drafted by the first NFL team to pick him. That act alone sets his value. No you. Not me. Not NBC.
 
I think someone pointed out the other day that the Patriots are 11 of 19 in second round picks.

Multiple studies have shown that no NFL team has ever consistently beaten the averages when it comes to drafting. While a few NFL GMs are actually, statistically much worse than the norm, no GM/team has ever consistently out performed NFL averages in picking players that don't end up being a bust.

By the end of the 2nd round, where the Patriots always pick, that chance of any player being a bust is over 50%.

This is average.. across the league. Every GM. Every team.

What puts Belichick in the top 5 of every draft study I've ever read are not in his beating these Player is a Bust averages, but in how good the players are that he hits on.
 
Bill B knows what he is doing. No matter what. Look at Tom Brady he was drafted in the sixth round and look at where he is at today! Three SB MVP rings.
 
"We are the ONLY team to draft special teams players in the 2nd round." And the ONLY team to make 6 appearances in the Super Bowl winning 4 in the 15 seasons since the beginning of the century. Any correlation?
 
"We are the ONLY team to draft special teams players in the 2nd round." And the ONLY team to make 6 appearances in the Super Bowl winning 4 in the 15 seasons since the beginning of the century. Any correlation?
I don't really get why people complain about something with the tag line "the Pats are the ONLY ones who..." Considering their unprecedented success, maybe doing things differently is a good thing...
 
No safeties were taken in the next 40 picks after Richards. If BB felt that wouldn't be the case with Richards on the board, but that Jackson, Flowers, Mason, et al (or someone he liked as much at their respective positions) would be, then he was right to take Richards when he did.

It's a guessing game, right? Maybe he's got 3 guards fairly evenly rated still on his board, and several DEs, but only one safety: Richards. In that case, take the safety.

Bingo!

In both the case of Wilson and Richards there was a dearth of talent at the position, after (or including according to the Draftniks!) his selection. BB wanted to assure himself he got his target before anyone else was tempted,since there didn't seem to be any alternatives.

He wasn't worried if a G was selected, there were alternatives. Also BB didn't want just a pass rusher, he wanted someone who could play the run as well, plus there were lots of alternatives if his choice got selected by another team.
 
The simple fact is, a player gets drafted by the first NFL team to pick him. That act alone sets his value. No you. Not me. Not NBC.

Yup, which doesn't in any way preclude his selection from being a mistake.
 
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