Theory on Belichick's drafting philosophy

Polian was just on Sirius XM radio ranting about the stupidity of draft coverage by the media. He said "there is no such thing as draft value. No such thing".

He said that NFL teams don't even rank the college players 1 thru 300 the way the media "experts" do. Teams try to identify a number of players that will likely contribute to their program in areas of of need and then they try to get as many of those players as they can in the draft. It has nothing to do with a big board. Nothing to do with "draft value".

He said the idea that a draft slot as some fixed value is ridiculous. This year's draft only had 12 to 14 players with a first round grade. So is pick #20 in the first round worth the same this year as it would be in a year with 26 first round grade players?

Furthermore, the best GMs in the league have no idea what they have when the draft is over. Polian said that, the first day of rookie mini-camps, he used to look at his scouts and joke about praying that the guys they just drafted don't crap the bed. You have no idea and won't for a year or two.

I think Polian is right. Paying attention to the media draft gurus makes you dumber about the NFL draft, not smarter...

The Patriots' draft philosophy is to draft the best available player who fits their scheme. "Best" is an amalgam of measurables, film study, game play, interview, workout, personal information and so on.

lurker1965 said:

I could be wrong. I am not BB but...

I think he values the first round, obviously. Since we often have some good UDFAs that make the team and stuff, I have two theories on his "not accepted" picks often as high as the second round, but some are in the third.

1)He sees later picks as an opportunity to "troll" media (and hence fans).
2)He figures "screw it" and takes guys that he thinks could be great 1% of the time.

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I think you're right. A buddy of mine whose second cousin knows a guy who is friends with someone on the Patriots' security staff said he saw a closed-circuit video feed of the team's draft "war room" in progress. He said (allegedly) that it's really just a big drinking party with the Krafts, BB, Caserio, etc. boozin' it up and laughing hysterically at ESPN/NFLN coverage of what the 31 other teams are doing. When New England's picks rolled around, they'd call their wives/girlfriends and give them three names to choose from or spin a big roulette wheel fashioned as the draft board. When another team would call to offer a trade, they'd make up Jerky Boys skits and then pretend the phone line went dead. They even made a prank call to the Jets offering Garoppolo, Stork and Amendola for Geno Smith. Apparently, the biggest problem was keeping BB sober enough to meet with the media and comment convincingly on the new rookies.

lurker1965 said:

He (BB) sees later picks as an opportunity to "troll" media (and hence fans).

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I can't picture anyone today or perhaps ever in the NFL trying to make every draft pick count more than Bill Belichick, even on the long shot picks. I mean, BB is the name that comes to mind when you mention salary cap.

To suggest otherwise is like hinting the Pope is no longer Catholic.

I doubt Bill has a philosophy as such. He just wants smart, tough, versatile football players that fit what the Patriots do. And he'll change his approach depending on the specific draft.

He identifies areas of need on his roster and where he thinks players in the draft can help. There is good information on how he drafts in various Patriots books out there. Off the top of my head, he evaluates players in the draft against those on his current roster. So it's not so much 'how highly do we rate Bud Dupree or Shane Ray?' It's 'how much do we like those players compared to Chandler Jones?'

The other thing is that he is not afraid of picking players too high if he really likes them even if the film suggests they should be drafted lower - see Vollmer, Wilson, Cunningham, Richards and even Mankins. It depends how much the rest of the league values them. He had a quote in War Room I think that said something like 'we really want this guy. It's probably too high to pick him based on his tape but if we wait we might not get him so we're gonna take him now'. This frustrates fans and hasn't always worked out.

But Bill essentially identifies 5-10 players pre draft that he wants and he finds a way to get them. Going into this draft I have no doubt he had identified Grissom, Jackson, Mason, Richards and Cardona specifically as players he really wanted and thus he a) picked a few of them higher than "the board" for fear of losing them and b) made sure he got picks in the areas they would roughly go.

I fully expect BB has a ranked list of who he will pick before Draft Day.....if the player at the top of his list is taken, he immediately goes to the next one on his list. And the one after that.

I think that BB and other GM's are ESPN Insider subscribers and purchase the Mel Kiper's draft guide. But, sometime they just don't have the deep understanding as to what makes a player a "value pick" and that's why you see so many "reaches" of draft day.

just my opinion.

zimmy said:

But Bill essentially identifies 5-10 players pre draft that he wants and he finds a way to get them. Going into this draft I have no doubt he had identified Grissom, Jackson, Mason, Richards and Cardona specifically as players he really wanted and thus he a) picked a few of them higher than "the board" for fear of losing them and b) made sure he got picks in the areas they would roughly go.

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If Belichick really targeted Jackson, he would have picked him earlier. There was a good chance that someone else would pick him before 111. There was almost no chance that Grissom would be picked.

I hope the OP doesn't seriously believe that BB spends his draft capital to specifically troll the media and fans.

BB has been quite straightforward in his core beliefs in the past. This article is from 2013. It completely explains this past weekend:
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-england...43282/belichicks-keynote-address-passion-plus

Summary:
- he believes at the NFL level, there really isn't much talent differential from team to team.
- therefore, there needs to be a differentiator to consistently succeed.
- he believes that differentiator is players who have passion for everything involved in the football process.

Now look at some moves:
- drafting Jordan Richards, a "reach" in round 2
- drafting a boatload of college captains
- drafting guys who played any position asked by the coach, simply because they love playing and will do anything to help the team.

This is what he values. I don't think it's a coincidence that the two worst teams since Brady has been here - 2002 and 2009 - were the ones which had fewer of those types of players than usual.

That's what he's doing with his draft picks.

hwc said:

Polian was just on Sirius XM radio ranting about the stupidity of draft coverage by the media. He said "there is no such thing as draft value. No such thing".

He said that NFL teams don't even rank the college players 1 thru 300 the way the media "experts" do. Teams try to identify a number of players that will likely contribute to their program in areas of of need and then they try to get as many of those players as they can in the draft. It has nothing to do with a big board. Nothing to do with "draft value".

He said the idea that a draft slot as some fixed value is ridiculous. This year's draft only had 12 to 14 players with a first round grade. So is pick #20 in the first round worth the same this year as it would be in a year with 26 first round grade players?

Furthermore, the best GMs in the league have no idea what they have when the draft is over. Polian said that, the first day of rookie mini-camps, he used to look at his scouts and joke about praying that the guys they just drafted don't crap the bed. You have no idea and won't for a year or two.

I think Polian is right. Paying attention to the media draft gurus makes you dumber about the NFL draft, not smarter...

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As much as I dislike the guy, Polian is one of the best team builders. ironically, he built his teams almost the opposite of the way the Patriots did. He saved money where we spent it (interior DL) and vice versa. He built a team around Peyton's offense and spent money on short expensive pass rushers that rushed every play. Three teams that didn't use the generic scouting services - Baltimore, Indy and the Pats - had different approaches, but drafted specifically for their styles - and stayed competitive.

Polian has talked about that. Specifically, he's talked about the Colts stocking their defense with undersized players, in part, because it was the only way they could afford to stock their defense. The undersized players were bargains relative to their skill level.

This is one of the funniest Threads of the Year. Most of the Posts are logical and reasonably interesting, but some of the CrackPot Theories presented on this Thread in a vain attempt to explain the Inexplicable ~ including the OP most prominently, of course ~ are pretty damned amusing.

PATSNUTme said:

I think that BB and other GM's are ESPN Insider subscribers and purchase the Mel Kiper's draft guide. But, sometime they just don't have the deep understanding as to what makes a player a "value pick" and that's why you see so many "reaches" of draft day.

just my opinion.

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BB wont use a second on Kipers draft guide ( or anyones for that matter ), he got a hole staff of scouts, with the SINGLE purpose to scout for Patriots, and NOT for all 32 teams...

hwc said:

Polian was just on Sirius XM radio ranting about the stupidity of draft coverage by the media. He said "there is no such thing as draft value. No such thing"....It has nothing to do with a big board.

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Pic from Patriots 2015 War Room:

neuronet said:

Pic from Patriots 2015 War Room:

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That's a pretty funny photo. It makes them look all serious and focused. Obviously, it omits the other side of the room where the bar and giant roulette wheel are set up.

Tunescribe said:

That's a pretty funny photo. It makes them look all serious and focused. Obviously, it omits the other side of the room where the bar and giant roulette wheel are set up.

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And that lady in the underwear that Kraft and Belichick are checking out ...

Mike the Brit said:

And that lady in the underwear that Kraft and Belichick are checking out ...

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It's no mistake that both Kraft and BB are dating blonde bimbos.

PATSNUTme said:

I think that BB and other GM's are ESPN Insider subscribers and purchase the Mel Kiper's draft guide. But, sometime they just don't have the deep understanding as to what makes a player a "value pick" and that's why you see so many "reaches" of draft day.

just my opinion.

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LMAO, someone actually sent a disagree to my post above.

Nice misquote. What I actually wrote, with the part you left out in bold, was:

Polian was just on Sirius XM radio ranting about the stupidity of draft coverage by the media. He said "there is no such thing as draft value. No such thing".

He said that NFL teams don't even rank the college players 1 thru 300 the way the media "experts" do. Teams try to identify a number of players that will likely contribute to their program in areas of of need and then they try to get as many of those players as they can in the draft. It has nothing to do with a big board. Nothing to do with "draft value".

Click to expand...

If you notice the picture of the Pats war room, the charts on the wall are for the first four rounds of the draft, 32 slots each in the first two, then compensatory picks in blue at the ends of Rounds 3 and 4.

There is an extra column between the columns labeled ROUND 1 and ROUND 2. This has positions of need for each team in the round, as many as five for each team: (OC, ILB, S, QB, etc) which is the Patriots estimate in advance of where the teams ahead of them will be focused. There is the beginning of a similar column in front of ROUND 3 in the photo taken at the end of the 2nd Round. These needs would change as teams make picks. For example, QB would come off the needs column for the Bucs and Titans after the first round....

Pats selection positions are in red. These are simply the lists tracking the draft, moving each player to their draft team/position as they are announced. The reason they are blurred is that some players are in black some in red with various color dots and notes indicating Patriot draft evaluations. I suspect the names in black were not on the Patriots draft board; the names in red were.

That photo is taken from the Round 2 video:

http://www.patriots.com/video/2015/05/02/exclusive-inside-patriots-draft-room-round-2

There's a Round3 video as well:

http://www.patriots.com/video/2015/05/02/exclusive-inside-patriots-draft-room-round-3

These actual Patriots draft board (player names sorted by grade vertically and position horizontally) is on a different wall of the draft room. It is never shown unblurred. I have heard this wall would have no more than 100 players.

There's a third wall of name tags (printed in black) that looks to be all the players in the draft that aren't on the Pats draft board. These, presumably get moved to the Draft Round wall as they are selected.