The way too early 53 man roster projection

Sfpat said:

The last 4 Pats draft picks were UDFA quality so if any of them make the team we can consider the streak extended.

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Both Roberts and ****son were more considered more than 7th/FA quality. They were considered by media evaluations at least as strong as Richards and Grissom (I used cbssports)

BlueThunder said:

I'm uncomfortable having Ryan on the field. Every time I see him he is chasing his man.

Someone make me feel better about him being on the roster.

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Let me try. I suggest this chart ,all based on 2014 actual stats . I will use 2014 stats for 2015 ,because I do not have a crystal ball. I personally have no doubt that bb,s #1 draft objective was to improve the pass rush.
I have been screaming at the tv,while QB ,s stand in the pocket. There has been no interior pressure in years.
If this is improved,it would help any D B on the field. I believe their numbers will shoot up. Now for graph2
2014 Player - Age GP TKL PD INT 2015 Player Age GP TKL PD INT
Lg Rec CB Browner - 30 - 9 - 25 -6 1 Fletcher 29 15 61 22 1
Rg Rec CB Revis - 29 - 16 - 47 -14 - 2 Ryan 24 16 42 6 2
Sm Rec CB Arrington -28 - 14 -33 -14 -0 Mc Clain 27 16 60 5 2
Nickle CB Ryan -23 - 16 - 42 -6 - 2 Arrington 29 14 33 4 0
Dime CB Dennard - 25 - 6 - 15 -1 - 1 Butler 25 11 15 3 0
Totals 135 -61 -192 - 31 - 6 134 72 211 40 5
Avg /5 27 -12 - 38 -6 - 1 27 14 42 8 1
Looks amazing to me, how close they are. We all know Revis is a Hall of Fame player,but we all get replaced.
The Pats have always pushed the team concept over individuals. They know we all have a shelf life.
PS before the draft NE had 77 players 23 of which went undrafted. Love CB Roberts I think he will be on roster soon. He may spend time on PS . He was 1 of my late round picks,so i am a little prejudiced .Go Pats crush the QB

I disagree with the low value assessments on Blount and Gray. Gray broke out and then disappeared. But his disappearance coincided with the signing of Blount, not some sudden inability to contribute. I think they are both quality backs that cause problems for opposing defenses. Not only do I think they're both locks to make the roster, I think they will form a convincing deep and effective backfield on 1st and 2nd down.

Offense 24

QB - 2 - Brady Garo
RB - 4 - Blount Gray White Bolden
FB - 1 - Devlin
TE - 4 - Gronk Chandler Wright
WR - 5 - Edelman Lafell Amendola Dobson Tyms
OL - 9 - Solder Flemming Stork Jackson* Vollmer Wendell Cannon Kline Mason*

Defense 24

DE - Jones Nink Sheard Flowers* Grissom* Moore
DT - Easley Brown* Branch Siliga Jones
LB - Mayo Hightower Collins White
CB - Fletcher Butler Arrington Ryan Dennard
S - McCourty Chung Harmon Richards*

STs 5

Cardona* - LS
Gost - K
Allen - P
Slater
Ebner

Tough Cuts - Hooman (For Chandler) and Wilson (for Richards)

BlueThunder said:

I'm uncomfortable having Ryan on the field. Every time I see him he is chasing his man.

Someone make me feel better about him being on the roster.

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They will be a zone defense team this year.

(Hope that helps.)

PatsFanInVa said:

My thought on 1 of last 4 making the 53... okay. I guess sounds reasonable for now

My thought on "thinking about the roles" (replaced...) Can't think that way. I think we're replacing/disguising secondary departures with more aggressiveness on the front 7. Necessity is the mother of invention I guess, and Revis was a one-year wonder... Early indications are that this edition of the NE Pats are looking to be nasty on D and take the fight to the other team, then praying that the Dennards and McCourtys of the world can do the job.

This is kind of exciting - all in on pressure/run stuffing/etc. Should be interesting.

But that's the danger of the draft. Looks like an indication, but depends on these guys playing their roles well. You have to pencil in Brown as being able to handle "the Vince role" or a facsimile, just out of optimism... but if all these playing pieces add up to the attacking front 7 it looks like we're hoping to build, I think NE fans will see a more attacking style of D than we're used to.

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We've been saying that for a few years, but BB hasn't changed his principles of gap discipline, regardless of the front. That limits aggressiveness outside of sub packages, and I doubt that they change the approach on early downs against pass-heavy teams, so any additional aggressiveness will be selective (e.g., stunts only on passing downs, LB gap blitzes on early downs, etc.). I just don't see Bill taking any chances with his run fits by changing the approach and letting guys get upfield more, especially with VW's departure, and that will limit the effectiveness of the pass rush when it is not an obvious passing play.

jsull87 said:

Offense 24

QB - 2 - Brady Garo
RB - 4 - Blount Gray White Bolden
FB - 1 - Devlin
TE - 4 - Gronk Chandler Wright
WR - 5 - Edelman Lafell Amendola Dobson Tyms
OL - 9 - Solder Flemming Stork Jackson* Vollmer Wendell Cannon Kline Mason*

Defense 24

DE - Jones Nink Sheard Flowers* Grissom* Moore
DT - Easley Brown* Branch Siliga Jones
LB - Mayo Hightower Collins White
CB - Fletcher Butler Arrington Ryan Dennard
S - McCourty Chung Harmon Richards*

STs 5

Cardona* - LS
Gost - K
Allen - P
Slater
Ebner

Tough Cuts - Hooman (For Chandler) and Wilson (for Richards)

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For an early list that's pretty good. People are crazy writing off Ebner. Bill loves his STers and Ebner was phenomenal. Barring injury he'll be on the team.

jsull87 said:

Offense 24

QB - 2 - Brady Garo
RB - 4 - Blount Gray White Bolden
FB - 1 - Devlin
TE - 4 - Gronk Chandler Wright
WR - 5 - Edelman Lafell Amendola Dobson Tyms
OL - 9 - Solder Flemming Stork Jackson* Vollmer Wendell Cannon Kline Mason*

Defense 24

DE - Jones Nink Sheard Flowers* Grissom* Moore
DT - Easley Brown* Branch Siliga Jones
LB - Mayo Hightower Collins White
CB - Fletcher Butler Arrington Ryan Dennard
S - McCourty Chung Harmon Richards*

STs 5

Cardona* - LS
Gost - K
Allen - P
Slater
Ebner

Tough Cuts - Hooman (For Chandler) and Wilson (for Richards)

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Where's Cadet and Gaffney?

My new binky is Matthew Wells and I think he can make it.

everlong said:

For an early list that's pretty good. People are crazy writing off Ebner. Bill loves his STers and Ebner was phenomenal. Barring injury he'll be on the team.

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The issue is that Tavon Wilson is also a very good ST player and also a decent safety. I think Wilson and Ebner are fighting for a spot (at this very early point in time) and it will come down to Wilson's defensive contribution vs Ebner's superior ST play + cheaper salary.

Elijah said:

The issue is that Tavon Wilson is also a very good ST player and also a decent safety. I think Wilson and Ebner are fighting for a spot (at this very early point in time) and it will come down to Wilson's defensive contribution vs Ebner's superior ST play + cheaper salary.

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He is a very good special teams player but not as good as Ebner and he costs more money. Wilson could beat him out but I'd still give Ebner the edge. He would be in Houston playing for Vrabel the next day.

Elijah said:

The issue is that Tavon Wilson is also a very good ST player and also a decent safety. I think Wilson and Ebner are fighting for a spot (at this very early point in time) and it will come down to Wilson's defensive contribution vs Ebner's superior ST play + cheaper salary.

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Tavon Wilson led all Patriots in special team snaps with 324 out of 466 snaps. Nate Ebner was 5th with 225 out of 466.

Just a side but interesting note. The top 3 players in the entire NFL in special team snaps were all Eagles players. The Eagles led all teams with 519 snaps.

The Gr8est said:

Where's Cadet and Gaffney?

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Cadet and Gaffney didn't make it. I am assuming in this mock that White beats him out for the 3rd down RB job. Could be wrong but it's just an early look.

ready got one wrong with the pats releasing Dennard today

jsull87 said:

ready got one wrong with the pats releasing Dennard today

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This early in the season these lists are throwing darts at a board 2 blocks away. No one is going to even be close given the crazy pre-season moves we've come to expect. Every year most of this board is reeling in shock over the final 53 picks. FWIW, IMO your list looks pretty solid. Nonetheless, I expect the final 53 will be something no one here anticipates.

Thanks for the work. A lot better than anything I could do.
But, we all know a lot can change, for example...
...I wonder whether Malcolm Butler would have been on this list this time last year?

I will stick with way too early...few more vets will land here in pre season or so.

I'd like to sign Ahmad Bradshaw. He'd be my 3rd down back. Other two backs would be Bolden and a camp battle between Gray and Gaffney. My money is on Gaffney. I don't think Cadet or J. White make the 53 if we do that. Blount is suspended for week 1. We wouldn't have to decide on the Gray/Gaffney battle until after the Steelers game.

One other thing about the 5th wr. Let's assume Dobson is healthy and the 4th guy. T. Wright is basically a WR, he could be the 5th guy. Allows you to keep 3 te's; Gronk, Chandler and Hoo-Man.

QB - Brady, Jimmy G
RB - Blount, FA, Bolden, Gray/Gaffney
FB - Develin
TE - Gronk, Chandler, Hoo-Man
C - Stork
G - Wendell, Fleming, Mason, Jackson, Kline
T - Solder, Vollmer, Cannon
WR - Edelman, LaFell, Amendola, Dobson, Wright and Slater

DE - Chandler Jones, Ninkovich, Sheard and Flowers
DT - Silega, Branch, M. Brown, D. Easley and Chris Jones
LB - Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Grissom, Wells and Chris White
CB - Ryan, Butler, Fletcher, Arrington, Roberts and a prayer
S - McCourty, Harmon, Richards and T. Wilson

P - R. Allen
K - S. Gostkowski
LS - J. Cardona

P. Chung is my surprise cut. Ebner misses the cut.

IcyPatriot said:

I will stick with way too early...few more vets will land here in pre season or so.

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Way too early rosters help us examine where we might need to add veterans.

Mike Reiss ‏@MikeReiss 23s24 seconds ago
In addition to CB Alfonzo Dennard, the Patriots also announce the release of LS Tyler Ott & LB Deontae Skinner (longshots to make club).

Chiuba E. Obele said:

Mike Reiss ‏@MikeReiss 23s24 seconds ago
In addition to CB Alfonzo Dennard, the Patriots also announce the release of LS Tyler Ott & LB Deontae Skinner (longshots to make club).

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Interesting that Ott was cut so quickly. Maybe Aiken is being re-signed or Belichick is certain
that Cardona will be available. Mike Reiss indicated in today's mailbag that Belichick had some
contact with the Navy before the draft.