Comparatively to virtually any BB criticisms, I would say criticism of the Jordan Richards pick probably has the most justification. The fact that in the aftermath of Tavon Wilson and Duron Harmon we're still going to the safety well, and doing so in the typical conventional wisdom overdraft fashion, shows that the strategy hasn't worked the way BB has wanted it to. We as fans should be somewhat wary of going through it again.
This is coming from someone who is a fan of both Wilson and Harmon, and who thinks Richards has a place in the NFL as well.
The "he was selected too early and NE could have gotten him and another good prospect!" argument has merit, as long as the person making it willfully accepts several potential exaggerations.
1) Exaggerating the success of the player missed - By the end of the second round, even the best prospect only has about a 50% chance of being better than Tavon Wilson. And maybe a 20% chance of being substantially so. Of all the names bandied about as guys NE should have taken, half won't make it to a second contract with their team no matter how enticing they look now.
2) Understating the ability of the player selected - Using Tavon as an example, NE's evaluation of him - the best remaining player on the board at a position of serious need - has actually been proven correct. You can argue whether they should have been so need conscious, but the assessment was on target.
3) Exaggerating the risk of selecting a "reach" - 2009 is a great example of this: two reaches (Brace/Vollmer) and two appropriate (Chung/Butler), both groups were 50/50 successes with the biggest hit being the biggest reach.
Sure, it's a small sample, but the same is born out over a lager scale, with guys like Brace, Tavon, Wheatley, Bethel Johnson and Marquise Hill being offset by Vollmer, Mankins, Branch and Collins.
To take it a step further, while there are plenty of "droppers" like Wilfork and Cannon who have proven to be worth the investment, there have been plenty of value picks that sucked as well, like Tate, Jackson, Butler and Meriweather.
So, basically NE has about the same hit rate on reaches as they do anywhere else and the success rate of guys passed over is much lower than people suggest. As long as you position your lamenting within that framework, I'm fine.
With regard to the "another safety" assertion, I'm not completely on board with that, either. While that could be an indictment on those selections, it is possible the team plans to play McCourty more at CB this year. It also should be noted that neither Wilson nor Harmon play the way Richards does, it's like saying that drafting a NT is a due to poor drafting at the UT position the last couple years. It really doesn't work that way.
It's also possible that Harmon is on a solid track, but this means the team is moving on from Wilson.... but that would mean they are batting 50% in late second+ selections, which is well within league average.
To try and make that argument, you'd have to say that NE is moving on from
both of them, with is pretty baseless at this point.
