The way too early 53 man roster projection

I did this a couple hours ago...

Regular writing - made team
Blue highlight - cut
Green highlight - practice squad

Might have screwed up by putting Tyms on the PS (not sure if eligible) plus White or Wilson probably don't get cut

Derby seems destined for PS, at best. Even in his presser, BB talked about how Derby doesn't have a lot of experience at TE, and that he's a project. That doesn't make him sound like a guy who's likely to knock Hooman or Wright off the roster.

Another way to think about the roster, is tracking deltas against the free agents lost

the Ayers role: Grissom, Flowers, ****son... BB tripled dipped in the draft
the Castillas role: Wells, Morris, Gordon
the Wilfork role: Brown
the Vereen role: Cadet, White, Lewis
the Ridley role: Gray, Bolden, Gaffney
the Connolly role: Jackson, Mason, Fleming

At DB, this approach doesn't work so well, since there's no one qualified to play the Revis role, and you have to suppose the scheme will change.

rookBoston said:

the Ayers role: Grissom, Flowers, ****son... BB tripled dipped in the draft

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And also Sheard in FA, which was part of what was odd about the draft emphasis on that role.

My prediction - 53 guys : Talent plus financial
Initial Cap room without new picks signed:$10,097,987
After cuts but without new picks signed: $11,884,100

• QB - 2 Brady, Garoppolo - Cuts: Gilbert
• RB - 4 Bolden, James White,Blount, Gaffney Cuts: Lewis, Cadet, Gray Why? After Colts game Gray was a non-factor. I dont think they will give up on White just yet, plus he has 3 more cheap rookie years.. Bolden is a decent RB and a great STer guy.
• C - 1 Stork Cuts: David Andrews
• G - 4 Wendell, Tre’ Jackson, Shaq Mason Kline Cuts: Devey, Barker
• OT - 4 Vollmer, Solder, Cannon, Cameron Fleming Cuts: Hauptmann
• WR - 6 Amendola, Slater, Edelman, Lafell, Dobson, Gibson Cuts: Christopher Harper, Devin Gardner, Boyce, Krause, Dorsey,Tyms
• TE - 4 Rob Gronkowski, Wright, Develin, Chandler Cuts: AJ Derby, Hoomanawanui. The hardest cut was this. Excellent blocker. Great character. But his salary does not match his productivity. With Shaq Mason and Tre Jackson, run the game will be better. And Devellin can do the dirty work for half the price. Wright is a very valuable red zone target and with two years still of rookie contract he can be a valuable commodity to trade for next picks.
• DE - 4 Ninkovich, Chandler Jones, Geneo Grissom, Trey Flowers Cuts: Buchanan, Bequette, Moore
• DT - 5 Chris Jones, Easley, Siliga, Branch, Malcom Brown Cuts: Antonio Johnson, Vellano
• LB - 6 Collins, Hightower, Mayo, Sheard,Chris White Matthew Wells Cuts: Gordon, Darius Fleming, Rufus Johnson, Martin, Skinner, Freeny, Morris, Xzavier ****son Why? Freeny has a big number to his number of snaps. Wells is a hybrid player and i like that.
• CB - 5 Ryan, Arrington, Butler, Dennard, Fletcher Cuts: Brandon King, Jimmy Jean,Green, Swanson, McClain, Darryl Roberts, Chewka
• S - 5 McCourty, Ebner, Harmon, Chung, Jordan Richards Cuts: Tavon Wilson Why? We save more money with this cut. And Jordan Richards can play his role. Tavon is in his final contract year and he was never a major contributor here.
• P - 1 Allen
• K - 1 Gostkowski
• LS - 1 Joe Cardona Cuts: Ott

Reminder that Blount is suspended for Week 1 so these should be 54-man roster projections.

My thought on 1 of last 4 making the 53... okay. I guess sounds reasonable for now

My thought on "thinking about the roles" (replaced...) Can't think that way. I think we're replacing/disguising secondary departures with more aggressiveness on the front 7. Necessity is the mother of invention I guess, and Revis was a one-year wonder... Early indications are that this edition of the NE Pats are looking to be nasty on D and take the fight to the other team, then praying that the Dennards and McCourtys of the world can do the job.

This is kind of exciting - all in on pressure/run stuffing/etc. Should be interesting.

But that's the danger of the draft. Looks like an indication, but depends on these guys playing their roles well. You have to pencil in Brown as being able to handle "the Vince role" or a facsimile, just out of optimism... but if all these playing pieces add up to the attacking front 7 it looks like we're hoping to build, I think NE fans will see a more attacking style of D than we're used to.

patsinthesnow said:

View attachment 9188
Roberts will find a way on the roster, even if it's STs at first with that athleticism.

Training camp binky found.

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He's mine too. He has more upside and physical ability than any CB on the roster.

He sticks only if he shows progress in every other area. Very raw talent.

mgteich said:

ANOTHER APPROACH

CAUTIONS
1) The number of roster spots at various positions may be different when the 53 is picked.
2) I have Bolden as being safe. That seems likely at the moment.
3) I don't list 7th rounders and UDFA's as likely competitors for the 53, although 1-2 will likely make it.
4) We seem to have lost of camp competition for the open rosters spots.
5) Obviously injuries will open roster spots that are not now open.
6) Additional signings may fill spots now open, or provide more competition.

SAFE ON OFFENSE (19)
QB - Brady, Garappolo
WR - Edelman, LaFell, Amendola
TE - Gronkowski, Chandler
RB - Blount
FB - Develin
OL - Solder, Stork, Wendell, Vollmer, Flemming, Cannon, Jackson, Mason
ST - Slater, Bolden

SAFE ON DEFENSE (18)
DE - Ninkovich, Jones, Sheard, Flowers, Grissom
DT - Brown, Easley, Siliga, Branch
LB - Mayo, Hightower, Collins
CB - Butler, Arrington
S - McCourty, Chung, Harmon, Richards

SAFE SPECIALISTS (2)
P - Allen
K - Gostkowski
LS
====================
OPEN ROSTER SPOTS (41 players for 14 openings)
2 WR - Dobson, Boyce, Tyms, Dorsey, Gibson, Krause
2 RB - Cadet, White, Gaffney, Gray, Lewis
1 TE - Hooman, Wright, Derby
1 OL - Kline, Barker, Davey, Hauptmann
1 DT - Jones, Johnson, Vellano
2 DE/LB/ST - Moore, Buchanan, Bequette, White, Skinner, Fleming, Gordon, Wells, Freeney
3 CB - Fletcher, Dennard, Ryan, McClain, Green, Chekwa
1 S - Ebner, Wilson, Swanson
1 LS - Ott, Cordona

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Good way of putting it. I'll guess.
2 WR - Dobson and Gibson. I hope Boyce. But, I doubt it.
3 RB - Gaffney, Gray, Cadet. Not a fan of White.
1 TE - HooMan
1 OL - Kline
1 DT - C. Jones
2 LB - C. White and Wells.
4 CB - Dennard, Ryan, Fletcher and Roberts
0 S - Would rather have the extra cb.
1 LS - BB uses connections to get Cordona on roster.

I'm at 54. Not sure whom I drop after Gm 1 when Blount comes back. Gray or Cadet. Probably Gray.

mgteich said:

ANOTHER APPROACH
....
OPEN ROSTER SPOTS (41 players for 14 openings)
2 WR - Dobson, Boyce, Tyms, Dorsey, Gibson, Krause
2 RB - Cadet, White, Gaffney, Gray, Lewis
1 TE - Hooman, Wright, Derby
1 OL - Kline, Barker, Davey, Hauptmann
1 DT - Jones, Johnson, Vellano
2 DE/LB/ST - Moore, Buchanan, Bequette, White, Skinner, Fleming, Gordon, Wells, Freeney
3 CB - Fletcher, Dennard, Ryan, McClain, Green, Chekwa
1 S - Ebner, Wilson, Swanson
1 LS - Ott, Cordona

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Plus everybody get egg roll!

Sorry, it started to be reminiscent of Chinese restaurant ordering. This is in no way a commentary on the work you have done here, which is a good way to get one's head around things.

My only little quibble is that we're letting past practice dictate... which, while it's the only thing we have to go by, isn't a certainty. So the quibble is about an unlikely outcome, for example, people in the first 4 rounds not sticking. It just feels oogie saying "safe" in relation to guys who haven't played a snap at an NFL practice facility, let alone in a game.

But I know that's stating the obvious

Edited to add -- and by the way my quibbles make this whole line of thought impossible at this point, so it's just more cautions for no reason. We're speculating, sure, but this is good well-informed speculation, for my money.

Very interesting that no CB's drafted.

Browner was expendable when Revis left. I think that BB must think that Butler has
the upside to be able to fill a starting #1 CB role, Dennard if healthy is a good #2CB,
Arrington in the slot.

If this pans out the D will be a top tier D.

Ferocious competition in the front seven, and an infusion of young talent along the offensive line... I for one really like this draft!

RayClay said:

Hate to be a wise guy, but that's a big shift from having no need for pass rushers in the draft to having two of them as safe, sight unseen, isn't it?

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Not really.

Belichick has NEVER cut a rookie drafted in the first four rounds, NEVER.

mgteich said:

Not really.

Belichick has NEVER cut a rookie drafted in the first four rounds, NEVER.

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So you're saying he would never change, even if Buchanan [for example] beats them out? No chance they go on the practice squad?

No chance they go on IR [not that he'd do that unless they were so injured they couldn't play the whole year]?

rookBoston said:

Another way to think about the roster, is tracking deltas against the free agents lost

the Ayers role: Grissom, Flowers, ****son... BB tripled dipped in the draft
the Castillas role: Wells, Morris, Gordon
the Wilfork role: Brown
the Vereen role: Cadet, White, Lewis
the Ridley role: Gray, Bolden, Gaffney
the Connolly role: Jackson, Mason, Fleming

At DB, this approach doesn't work so well, since there's no one qualified to play the Revis role, and you have to suppose the scheme will change.

Click to expand...

I wouldn't look to replace the roles as much as the players. In that sense, you have shown us how we have replaced players that are gone. However, the roles taken by the replacement players may be very different than those who have been replaced.

I don't think that this approach works on offense or defense. The offense and defense will be change to take advantage of the players that we and to compensate for the holes left by the loss of Vereen, Revis and Browner.

OFFENSE- PASSING GAME
Vereen is gone. No one will step in and replace Vereen. The offense will change some in his absence. Perhaps Chandler will be part of the replacement. Perhaps we will emphasize the running game more. Hopefully, the 3rd and 4th receivers will be more useful than in 2014. And yes, we have Cadet, White and Lewis who project to fulfill the role of 3rd down back.

OFFENSE - RUNNING GAME
Ridley wasn't part of the offense for most of the year. So, there is no need to replace him. I expect that Develin will stay. I don't think that anyone knows what the running game will look like. What we do know is that there is a movement towards bigger linemen. Apparently Belichick thinks the draftees were no better than Gaffney and Gray. Personally, I was surprised by that conclusion. I thought that we would add a running back. Perhaps a free agent will still be signed.

My bottom line is that I am NOT comfortable with Blount, Gray and Bolden as our first and second down backs.

DEFENSE - FRONT SEVEN
Given the changes in secondary, there may be major changes to our schemes. As you point out, schemes might be different if you don't have Revis and Browner as corners. The good news is that we have made significant additions to the front seven compared to 2014: the return of Mayo; the addition of Sheard, Brown, Flowers and Grissom. These pieces allow lots of flexibility.

DEFENSE - CORNER
No one knows what will happen. What we can't do is simply compare Butler/Fletcher to Revis/Browner. The schemes will change. Belichick must like what he added in Fletcher and McClain. After all, in February, we were discussing when Dennard would be cut, and when Ryan would move to safety.

DEFENSE - SAFETY
Everyone is back. We've added Richards who will replace on of the special teamers (either Wilson or Ebner).

BOTTOM LINE
Our offense will change some with the loss of Vereen. However, we've added Chandler, Cadet, Gibson and Dorsey (and perhaps we will see some production from Dobson or Tyms). Our offense should be as good as in 2014.

Our defense will definitely change a lot with the losses of Revis and Browner. Obviously, we've won of tied for the division many, many times without Revis and Browner. We've even won three Super Bowls without a top set of corners. That being said, we are in a passing league, and Belichick will have a major challenge in devising defenses. The draftees may help. It seems that the season will depend on how well this set of weak corners can play. Make no mistake, this is a very weak set of corners.

2015 New England Patriot Offense (24 minimum):

Quarterback (2) - Brady (38), Garoppolo (23)
Fullback (1) - Develin (27)
Halfback (4) - Blount (28), Bolden (25), xxxxx, xxxxx
Tight End (3) - Gronkowski (26), Hoomanawanui (27), Chandler (30)
Wide Receiver (5) - Edelman (29), LaFell (28), Amendola (29), Slater (30), xxxxx
Offensive Center (2) - Stork (24), Wendell (29)
Offensive Guard (3) - Kline (25), Jackson (22), Mason (22)
Offensive Tackle (4) - Solder (27), Vollmer (31), Cannon (27), Fleming (23)

() - player age as of September 10, 2015

On The Bubble:

Cadet, Gaffney, Gray, Lewis, White, Wright (25), Boyce (24), Dobson (24), Gibson (28), Tyms (26)

Practice Squad Offense (5):

Gilbert, Derby, Andrews, Barker/Hauptmann, xxxxx

http://www.patriots.com/team/roster

I'm uncomfortable having Ryan on the field. Every time I see him he is chasing his man.

Someone make me feel better about him being on the roster.

RayClay said:

So you're saying he would never change, even if Buchanan [for example] beats them out? No chance they go on the practice squad?

No chance they go on IR [not that he'd do that unless they were so injured they couldn't play the whole year]?

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None unless they are injured.

A player drafted in the first four rounds is worth a roster spot as a developmental player who is expected to always be inactive. Belichick has always found room for a developmental player.

If Buchanan is needed and is better than Grissom or Flowers, then he'll make the 53. Belichick will simply keep an "extra" DE.
====
Let's put another way. We need a roster of about 43 players, including backups. The other ten could be used for almost any position.

OFFENSE (20)
QB (2)
RB (3)
FB (1)
WR (4)
OL (7)
TE (2)
ST (1)

DEFENSE (20)
DE (4)
DT (4)
LB (4)
CB (4)
S (3)
DB (1)

SPECIALISTS (3)
P (1)
K (1)
LS (1)

So, my BOTTOM LINE, is that we have 10 additional positions that provide considerable flexibility, especially given a 10 man Practice Squad.

patsinthesnow said:

1. Forgetting Develin

2. An UDFA always makes the team. Got to out on a limb and pick one .

3. I want Roberts to make the team but it looks tough.

Great job at the first go at it.

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The last 4 Pats draft picks were UDFA quality so if any of them make the team we can consider the streak extended.

patsinthesnow said:

1. Forgetting Develin

2. An UDFA always makes the team. Got to out on a limb and pick one .

3. I want Roberts to make the team but it looks tough.

Great job at the first go at it.

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Roberts will beat Dennard (cut) and take a good look at wr Harper from Cal udfa