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I haven't been paying attention to the board for a while. My basic draft board and view of this draft was set about a month ago, and while there have been some changes due to late risers and fallers, it hasn't substantially changed. I find the "noise" of the last month before the draft to be more of a distraction than anything else.
The top 2 rated players on my board for almost 2 months have been Todd Gurley and Marcus Peters. I think both are impact players, and either would be worth a trade up using our #3, IMO, but I expect Gurley to go top 15 at this point, and Peters probably top 20.
FWIW, here's my last take at a mock - sort of a combination of what I'd do within reasonable expectations of how things will fall, and what I think could happen, given that there are another 20-30 prospects who I also think could be likely picks. I'm using Lindy's top 300 ranking list for comparison, as it seems fairly up to date and as accurate as anything I've seen so far, and I've included their 1 line prospect summaries. I'm not really planning on posting for a bit, but I thought I'd throw this out before the draft so that it is on record.
*** Trade: Pats trade #32 and #131 (631 points) to Tampa Bay for #34 and #109 (636 points). The Bucs jump ahead of Tennessee for an offensive lineman such as TJ Clemmings or Cam Erving.
34. Eric Rowe, CB, Utah. 6’1” 205#. #39 on Lindy’s top 300. 4.45 40, 1.56 10-split, 6.70 3C, 39” VJ.
"Physical, athletic DB who stood out for Utes at FS and CB, projecting well to NFL at either role.” Versatility at CB and S, and the best press-man CB in the draft after Marcus Peters. I would personally try to trade up for Peters if he falls into the 20s, but Rowe is my #2 option at CB. Malcolm Butler + Eric Rowe could be a good long-term starting combo. As Danny Kelly of FieldGulls recently noted:
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/4/29/8494749/nfl-draft-2015-five-underrated-players
Rowe will almost certainly be a top 40 pick, and could conceivably be off the board by #32. Philadelphia at #20 and Green Bay at #30 have both been mentioned as having strong interest. I think he's a 1st round talent.
*** Trade: Pats trade #64 (270 points), CB Alfonzo Dennard and a conditional 2016 pick to Houston for #51 (390 points). I don’t like trading future draft picks, even late ones, but the Pats will have a bunch of comp picks in 2016.
51. Grady Jarrett, DT, Clemson. 6’1” 304#. #60 on Lindy’s top 300. 5.06 40, 1.69 10-split, 31” VJ, 9’5” BJ.
"Explosive one-gap penetrator with a variety of arm/hand moves; son of 5-time Pro Bowl LB Jessie Tuggle.” Garrett is an undersized fire-hydrant and may not have much more room to bulk up, but he plays like his crotch is on fire, is very explosive, and is surprisingly stout against the run. Citing Danny Kelly from FieldGulls once again:
BB is very adaptable, and while he's generally favored bigger DTs, the Easley pick last year could signal a switch to speed and penetrating ability instead of size inside. I like Jarrett because he can step in and play the nose in sub packages right away, much like Timmy Jernigan for Baltimore. Jordan Phillips or Carl Davis could be options here, but Jarrett is much more explosive, productive and consistent, and I'd prefer him if all 3 are available. I'm hoping his size and perceived schematic limitations keep him down to this range. Tyeler Davison could be a great 4th round alternative if the Pats can’t move up for Garrett (with Ali Marpet the choice at #64).
As usual, Manx was right.
*** Trade: Pats trade #96 and #101 (212 points) to New Orleans for #75 (215 points). The Saint also have #78 in the 3rd round, so they can afford to trade back.
75. Ali Marpet, OL, Hobart. 6’4” 307#. #38 on Lindy’s top 300. 4.98 40, 1.71 10-split, 7.33 3-cone, 30.5” VJ, 9’ BJ.
"D-III LT moving inside to OG/C; Showed he belonged at Senior Bowl and wowed at Combine.” Marpet is my top rated interior line prospect in the draft, ahead of even Cam Erving. I don't think he's a developmental prospect - I think he'll surprise people be stepping in right away, and that he will be a pro bowl LG down the road. He has 4-5 position versatility as well. Marpet could easily go in the 2nd round, but could last this long due to his Division III background.
97 (comp). Marcus Hardison, DL, Arizona St. 6’3” 307#. #101 on Lindy’s top 300. 4.91 40, 1.69 10-split.
"Former DE who grew into position. Raw but athletic, long and emerged as playmaker (10 sacks) in 2014.” Hardison is the most versatile big DL in the draft, he can play anywhere from the 9 tech to the 0/1. A young DL core of Grady Jarrett, Dominique Easley and Hardison would give the Pats tremendous versatility and attacking capability, in both base and sub. Hardison is raw and only has 1 good season, and still seems to be flying under the radar a bit, so I'm hopeful that he'll last this long.
110. Davis Tull, LB, Tennessee-Chattanooga. 6’2” 246#. #103 on Lindy’s top 300. 4.57 40, 1.52 10-split, 42.5” VJ, 11’ BJ.
"3x reigning conferece DPOY who wowed in workouts (incl. 42.5″ vert). Shoulder surgery in March." Tull has exceptional athleticism, and I think he could be a very versatile piece in the Jamie Collins mold. I think he could play OLB in a 3-4 or 4-3, ILB, and DE as a sub rusher, where he has explosive quickness reminiscent of Bruce Irvin. Tull has short arms, but so did Rob Ninovich. 2015 could be Jerod Mayo’s last year with the Pats, and adding another LB seems likely. I'm hoping the combination of small school, short arms and a torn labrum keep him out of day 2. Shane Ray could be an option here if he takes a big fall, but I'm not counting on it.
178. Shaq Mason, C/G, Georgia Tech. 6’2” 304#. #175 on Lindy’s top 300. 4.99 40, 1.75 10-split, 7.53 3-cone, 32” VJ, 9’2” BJ.
"Surprise Combine snub – overlooked in GT option offense; fluid body control, quick hands and smart.” Mason is slightly undersized but has guard/center versatilty, excellent footwork, and is a fine technician. Jamil Douglas (#185 on Lindy’s list) could also be the option here - I was torn between Mason and Douglas. The Pats could also go with a RB like Zach Zenner (#180), and then take a second guard like Antoine Everett later or as a UDFA.
Note: If La'el Collins goes into free fall, it would be tempting to take him with one of the 3 late picks, much like Alfonzo Dennard in 2012. Collins and Ali Marpet in addition to Solder, Vollmer, Stork, Cannon and Fleming would give the Pats the deepest and strongest young OL in the NFL, and Collins has versatility at both tackle and guard positions. Unfortunately, I can't see the Pats taking that kind of risk after the Aaron Hernandez situation, and Collins' situation is too fluid to mock right now. But something to keep in mind. There's no doubt he is a very talented OL prospect.
220. DeAndre Smelter, WR, Georgia Tech. 6’2” 226#. #296 on Lindy’s top 300 list.
"Tough to evaluate due to QB play and GT offense, but natural athleticism and impressive skillset; ACL tear.” Big, physical WR who played baseball for 3 years, and then played in a triple-option offense. Raw, but with a ton of upside. Excellent blocker. Reminiscent of a more explosive Brandon LaFell. Will likely need a red-shirt year.
(continued due to length restrictions)
The top 2 rated players on my board for almost 2 months have been Todd Gurley and Marcus Peters. I think both are impact players, and either would be worth a trade up using our #3, IMO, but I expect Gurley to go top 15 at this point, and Peters probably top 20.
FWIW, here's my last take at a mock - sort of a combination of what I'd do within reasonable expectations of how things will fall, and what I think could happen, given that there are another 20-30 prospects who I also think could be likely picks. I'm using Lindy's top 300 ranking list for comparison, as it seems fairly up to date and as accurate as anything I've seen so far, and I've included their 1 line prospect summaries. I'm not really planning on posting for a bit, but I thought I'd throw this out before the draft so that it is on record.
*** Trade: Pats trade #32 and #131 (631 points) to Tampa Bay for #34 and #109 (636 points). The Bucs jump ahead of Tennessee for an offensive lineman such as TJ Clemmings or Cam Erving.
34. Eric Rowe, CB, Utah. 6’1” 205#. #39 on Lindy’s top 300. 4.45 40, 1.56 10-split, 6.70 3C, 39” VJ.
"Physical, athletic DB who stood out for Utes at FS and CB, projecting well to NFL at either role.” Versatility at CB and S, and the best press-man CB in the draft after Marcus Peters. I would personally try to trade up for Peters if he falls into the 20s, but Rowe is my #2 option at CB. Malcolm Butler + Eric Rowe could be a good long-term starting combo. As Danny Kelly of FieldGulls recently noted:
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/4/29/8494749/nfl-draft-2015-five-underrated-players
Rowe will almost certainly be a top 40 pick, and could conceivably be off the board by #32. Philadelphia at #20 and Green Bay at #30 have both been mentioned as having strong interest. I think he's a 1st round talent.
*** Trade: Pats trade #64 (270 points), CB Alfonzo Dennard and a conditional 2016 pick to Houston for #51 (390 points). I don’t like trading future draft picks, even late ones, but the Pats will have a bunch of comp picks in 2016.
51. Grady Jarrett, DT, Clemson. 6’1” 304#. #60 on Lindy’s top 300. 5.06 40, 1.69 10-split, 31” VJ, 9’5” BJ.
"Explosive one-gap penetrator with a variety of arm/hand moves; son of 5-time Pro Bowl LB Jessie Tuggle.” Garrett is an undersized fire-hydrant and may not have much more room to bulk up, but he plays like his crotch is on fire, is very explosive, and is surprisingly stout against the run. Citing Danny Kelly from FieldGulls once again:
BB is very adaptable, and while he's generally favored bigger DTs, the Easley pick last year could signal a switch to speed and penetrating ability instead of size inside. I like Jarrett because he can step in and play the nose in sub packages right away, much like Timmy Jernigan for Baltimore. Jordan Phillips or Carl Davis could be options here, but Jarrett is much more explosive, productive and consistent, and I'd prefer him if all 3 are available. I'm hoping his size and perceived schematic limitations keep him down to this range. Tyeler Davison could be a great 4th round alternative if the Pats can’t move up for Garrett (with Ali Marpet the choice at #64).
As usual, Manx was right.
*** Trade: Pats trade #96 and #101 (212 points) to New Orleans for #75 (215 points). The Saint also have #78 in the 3rd round, so they can afford to trade back.
75. Ali Marpet, OL, Hobart. 6’4” 307#. #38 on Lindy’s top 300. 4.98 40, 1.71 10-split, 7.33 3-cone, 30.5” VJ, 9’ BJ.
"D-III LT moving inside to OG/C; Showed he belonged at Senior Bowl and wowed at Combine.” Marpet is my top rated interior line prospect in the draft, ahead of even Cam Erving. I don't think he's a developmental prospect - I think he'll surprise people be stepping in right away, and that he will be a pro bowl LG down the road. He has 4-5 position versatility as well. Marpet could easily go in the 2nd round, but could last this long due to his Division III background.
97 (comp). Marcus Hardison, DL, Arizona St. 6’3” 307#. #101 on Lindy’s top 300. 4.91 40, 1.69 10-split.
"Former DE who grew into position. Raw but athletic, long and emerged as playmaker (10 sacks) in 2014.” Hardison is the most versatile big DL in the draft, he can play anywhere from the 9 tech to the 0/1. A young DL core of Grady Jarrett, Dominique Easley and Hardison would give the Pats tremendous versatility and attacking capability, in both base and sub. Hardison is raw and only has 1 good season, and still seems to be flying under the radar a bit, so I'm hopeful that he'll last this long.
110. Davis Tull, LB, Tennessee-Chattanooga. 6’2” 246#. #103 on Lindy’s top 300. 4.57 40, 1.52 10-split, 42.5” VJ, 11’ BJ.
"3x reigning conferece DPOY who wowed in workouts (incl. 42.5″ vert). Shoulder surgery in March." Tull has exceptional athleticism, and I think he could be a very versatile piece in the Jamie Collins mold. I think he could play OLB in a 3-4 or 4-3, ILB, and DE as a sub rusher, where he has explosive quickness reminiscent of Bruce Irvin. Tull has short arms, but so did Rob Ninovich. 2015 could be Jerod Mayo’s last year with the Pats, and adding another LB seems likely. I'm hoping the combination of small school, short arms and a torn labrum keep him out of day 2. Shane Ray could be an option here if he takes a big fall, but I'm not counting on it.
178. Shaq Mason, C/G, Georgia Tech. 6’2” 304#. #175 on Lindy’s top 300. 4.99 40, 1.75 10-split, 7.53 3-cone, 32” VJ, 9’2” BJ.
"Surprise Combine snub – overlooked in GT option offense; fluid body control, quick hands and smart.” Mason is slightly undersized but has guard/center versatilty, excellent footwork, and is a fine technician. Jamil Douglas (#185 on Lindy’s list) could also be the option here - I was torn between Mason and Douglas. The Pats could also go with a RB like Zach Zenner (#180), and then take a second guard like Antoine Everett later or as a UDFA.
Note: If La'el Collins goes into free fall, it would be tempting to take him with one of the 3 late picks, much like Alfonzo Dennard in 2012. Collins and Ali Marpet in addition to Solder, Vollmer, Stork, Cannon and Fleming would give the Pats the deepest and strongest young OL in the NFL, and Collins has versatility at both tackle and guard positions. Unfortunately, I can't see the Pats taking that kind of risk after the Aaron Hernandez situation, and Collins' situation is too fluid to mock right now. But something to keep in mind. There's no doubt he is a very talented OL prospect.
220. DeAndre Smelter, WR, Georgia Tech. 6’2” 226#. #296 on Lindy’s top 300 list.
"Tough to evaluate due to QB play and GT offense, but natural athleticism and impressive skillset; ACL tear.” Big, physical WR who played baseball for 3 years, and then played in a triple-option offense. Raw, but with a ton of upside. Excellent blocker. Reminiscent of a more explosive Brandon LaFell. Will likely need a red-shirt year.
(continued due to length restrictions)
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