My Final Big Board

Can be found at this link.

https://trello.com/b/3NlL7JlT/new-england-patriots-big-board

If you have any issues accessing the site or would like to see my big board in a more linear form, then let me know and I'll write it down for you.

Some Notes to help you understand the board.

1.

As you can see, I've broken it down into types of prospect rather than by round. I prefer this way of looking at prospects and how they project to the team. Here's how I interpret these 'categories'.

Starter Plus - Will become one of the better players in the league, not just the team. Worth trading up for. (Would trade up in first round for)

Starter - Should start early in first season. Guaranteed long-term starter that will be hard to replace. (1st Round)

Circumstantial starter - Same as starter but something is holding me back from giving that prospect that grade (1st round but would prefer to trade back for)

Make It Plus - Might not be a plug and play starter year one, but these prospects will be the core of the team over the coming years. Also includes quality, hard to replace, role players (2nd to mid 3rd round)

Dirty Starter - same as circumstantial starter. I don't have the confidence level to give them a make it plus grade but they're more than just backups. (Late 3rd to 4th round)

Make It - Backups , lesser role players and special teamers. (Day 3)

UDFA - Will struggle to make roster but I still like them more than most UDFA's. (Round 7-UDFA)

2.

As you can see, there are some coloured tags on each prospect. Here's what they mean.

• Blue - Good Patriots fit (film buff, athleticism, captain, character etc)
• Green - Binky alert. One of my favourite prospects
• Yellow - These prospects intrigue or interest me but haven't made it to binky status.
• Red - Red flag for injury, character.
• Orange - Can see the Patriots drafting these prospects and I'm not sure how I feel about that.

3.

You'll see some clustering of similar prospects, particularly in the make it plus category. In particular I have Stephone Anthony, Paul Dawson and Eric Kendricks clustered together as I have Ronald Darby and PJ Williams clustered together. With these prospects, I can't choose between them and don't have strong feelings for one over the other.

4.

The 'make it plus' and 'make it' categories are scrollable. They extend past the bottom of the page.

Please let me know your thoughts on the board and also the format I've used. I'm really interested to know what people think.

Just a quick note on Trello, the site I used to create the big board.

Basically OMG! I found it absolutely perfect for the creation of this board and I really wish I'd found it earlier. I will be using it in much more detail next year.

Basically it's a task management website that allows individuals or teams of people to track tasks for different projects. The tasks are arranged as cards like on a cork-board and this is what made it so easy to create the board. Each player is on a separate card and it's a simple case of dragging and dropping to move that players card all over the board. It made things so much easier to be able to do that.

I haven't used it this time, but if you click on one of the "cards", you'll see, in effect, the back of the card. On here I can put comments, to do lists (i.e. re-watch TJ Clemmings' Duke game") and even upload files to embed.

The colour coded tabs are great. I find the whole thing an excellent visual experience.

One thought I've had is that it can be used to do those mock drafts you see on NFL Network and ESPN where they stand in from of a big screen and slide names from one side of the screen to the other. It will make doing a mock much more interesting.

And it's free and just needs a google login.

Thanks to @Luxusdk I should point out that this is strictly my version of a Patriots BB to be used during the draft and not simply a ranking of prospects. So, for example, aside from two UDFAs, there are no TEs. That's simply because I don't think any of them offer anything above what we already have on the roster in Gronk, Chandler and Wright. It's the same with RBs. I have some early but I don't see the value of a day three RB over the likes of Gray, Gaffney, White and Bolden and so only have three after Mike Davis.

I should also add that I made a conscious decision not to try and watch every single prospect possible. I chose to focus on particular prospects and this board reflects that. I may very well have missed quality prospects that you perhaps like. I'm sorry about that, but this isn't meant to be a comprehensive objective view of a Patriots Draft Board. This is merely a snap shot/projection of how I view the draft.

Breaking The Board Down


My potential First Rounders

Everyone should know how I feel about Byron Jones. I firmly believe he has almost limitless upside and his absolute floor is a Duron Harmon upgrade. Trading up for Todd Gurley might give some people pause, but let me as you this. Would you trade a 3rd round pick for Marshawn Lynch? I think that's a similar proposition. As for Danny Shelton, I asked myself what would happen if he fell within range of the Patriots. In that instance, I do think the Patriots would give serious thought to trading up for him so I included him.

I do believe that Erving, Fisher, and Clemmings are plug and play starters at LG with upside. The same goes for Kevin Johnson.

There's no denying Marcus Peters' tape but his character is a concern to me. Cann and Tomlinson are interesting. Of all the OGs aside from the aforementioned three, they are the most likely to be plug and play starters. I don't want to put either of them that high but the need at LG is so great currently that I have no choice in ensuring we have a starting LG in place. My actual preference would be to trade for, or sign Evan Mathis and then draft Ali Marpet so if I was confident such a trade was in place, I'd have ranked both Cann and Tomlinson behind Marpet because I like his upside more. But, without knowing BBs plans for LG, I didn't want to come out of the draft without a starting LG for 2015. Cann and Tomlinson provide that insurance.

I love your work manx. That site looks great and I think the way you set it out really simplifies everything and makes it much easier to follow than a standard post. I really like the color coded tabs, its simple but very effective.

On the actual players and your evaluations, obviously everybody has their own opinion. I do agree with most of it though and you definitely know your stuff.

Great job!

Some players that might seem out of position:

1. Jalen Collins - I've probably been too harsh on him following the news about his drug test failures. However reported repeat offenders scare me, especially when I'm already pretty scared by that prospect anyway as I was by Collins' lack of starting experience.

2. Devin Smith/Chris Conley - Really like both as potential explosive big threats but I'm concerned that neither will turn into full-time WRs for us. I think both are quality role players at best which is why I have them so low in the "make it plus" grade. DeAndre Smelter is the complete opposite for me. I genuinely believe he's the complete WR which is why I have him so ridiculously high. The only WRs I'd take ahead of him are Cooper, White and Parker. That's also partly why the likes of Strong, Agholor and Permian aren't on this board.

3. I'm not comfortable about taking a linebacker in the first two rounds which is why I've been fairly indecisive on Kendricks, Dawson and Anthony. I like all three so they're on the board but I just don't think we need to address the position that early.

4. I'm a big fan of Dexter McDonald's upside which is why I have him so high and Darby/PJ Williams so low. I'd rather draft McDonald later rather than Darby or Williams in the second round. The same applies, to a lesser extent, to JaCorey Shepherd.

5. The top DTs have confused me from day one. I much prefer Grady Jarrett, Marcus Hardison and Carl Davis to Jordan Phillips, Malcom Brown and Eddie Goldman but that's almost the complete opposite to the consensus view. I tried to reflect that in this board.

Wilfork#75 said:

I love your work manx. That site looks great and I think the way you set it out really simplifies everything and makes it much easier to follow than a standard post. I really like the color coded tabs, its simple but very effective.

On the actual players and your evaluations, obviously everybody has their own opinion. I do agree with most of it though and you definitely know your stuff.

Great job!

Click to expand...

Thanks. I didn't know what to do with your guy Humphries. At the end of the day, I want a LG rather than a LT and I just don't think Humphries projects that well inside and that's why he's not on the list. If I was looking for a Solder replacement, he would absolutely be on there and as a first round prospect.

I asked Manx if it could be used with the future in mind, about adding colors - This one useing Red as medical and off the field stuff. But for me there is a diff between having a ACL and several failed drug tests.

Jordan Phillips got a red flag do to old problems, but Gurley did not and hes comeing back from a surgery?
Marcus Peters etc.. Something between him and the coach/s but could work perfectly with BB?
Its not nick picking, But mayby Red should be Injuries, Orange troubles with coaches etc and then add Black for pot heads?

About blue: Wouldnt it be smarter to give ppl who could be fine players but not a sceam fit ( Randy Gregory 3-4 OLB ) a color instead?

Luxusdk said:

I asked Manx if it could be used with the future in mind, about adding colors - This one useing Red as medical and off the field stuff. But for me there is a diff between having a ACL and several failed drug tests.

Jordan Phillips got a red flag do to old problems, but Gurley did not and hes comeing back from a surgery?
Marcus Peters etc.. Something between him and the coach/s but could work perfectly with BB?
Its not nick picking, But mayby Red should be Injuries, Orange troubles with coaches etc and then add Black for pot heads?

About blue: Wouldnt it be smarter to give ppl who could be fine players but not a sceam fit ( Randy Gregory 3-4 OLB ) a color instead?

Click to expand...

1. I felt a red flag is sufficient. It merely means *Caution* and then one can further examine what those issues are. As for Gurley not getting one. I believe that Philips' issues are that they are more of a long-term concern than Gurley's injury. Hurley has apparently been cleared fully now.

2. I've taken Gregory off my board but if he was on it, I'd probably give him a yellow (intriguing) and a red (caution).

This is how it works best for me. Others may have their own systems.

By the way, you should give it a go and do your own board with as many colours as you like .. It's completely free and dead easy to sign up if you have a google account. I can point you in the direction of two youtube videos that take about 20 minutes to watch and that's pretty much all you need.

I was expecting the process to take into monday to do but it's so good, I had it all done really quickly.

I absolutely admire the effort that has gone into this.

I am slightly confused by a few things though. If someone is not on the board, do you not rate them then?
Or are you leaving off anyone who won't be available at 32? Surely, for example, Scherff should be in your starter category somewhere?

It just seems odd that you have many WRs in the later rounds that you would be happy drafting, but you don't see any potential in the first two rounds? Maybe I've misunderstood the board.

Great effort and explanation. Not shockingly I probably agree with 90% of your BB. Where we split is I think Eric Rowe is a starter plus. If we were scaling 1 to 100 and to me a 100 is a generational player of which I don't see one in this entire draft I'd put Rowe at an 88 and Jones just behind him at 87.

The next place I see a difference is Fisher and Johnson. I see holes in both of their games and question if either will end up at their current positions.

Peters and Phillips are the two hardest projections for different reasons. They could both be out of the league by the end of their rookie deals or all pros. BOOM or bust.

Otherwise I'm pretty much in lockstep. Great job. We'll always disagree which leads to good debate and makes it fun.

zimmy said:

I absolutely admire the effort that has gone into this.

I am slightly confused by a few things though. If someone is not on the board, do you not rate them then?
Or are you leaving off anyone who won't be available at 32? Surely, for example, Scherff should be in your starter category somewhere?

It just seems odd that you have many WRs in the later rounds that you would be happy drafting, but you don't see any potential in the first two rounds? Maybe I've misunderstood the board.

Click to expand...

I should have done a better job of explaining this.

If a prospect is not on the board it's because:

a) I don't think we have a shot at drafting him. Scherff would probably be #1 on my board but we don't have a chance of drafting him, even if we were to trade up. Dupree, La'el Collins also fit into this category.

b) I just don't rate them.

c) I don't like the value. I'm just not keen on drafting a WR early for example. As I said upthread, why draft Agholor at 32 or after a trade back when you can draft Smelter, who I think is better, later.

d) There are some prospects that I haven't watched or that I just don't have an opinion on and they too are left off the board. Prospects like Xavier Cooper or Henry Anderson for example. Or some of the later round RBs. I've not really paid too much attention to them because I just like better value elsewhere.


I hope that helps.

everlong said:

Great effort and explanation. Not shockingly I probably agree with 90% of your BB. Where we split is I think Eric Rowe is a starter plus. If we were scaling 1 to 100 and to me a 100 is a generational player of which I don't see one in this entire draft I'd put Rowe at an 88 and Jones just behind him at 87.

The next place I see a difference is Fisher and Johnson. I see holes in both of their games and question if either will end up at their current positions.

Peters and Phillips are the two hardest projections for different reasons. They could both be out of the league by the end of their rookie deals or all pros. BOOM or bust.

Otherwise I'm pretty much in lockstep. Great job. We'll always disagree which leads to good debate and makes it fun.

Click to expand...

No, I can absolutely see what you see with Rowe. He didn't overly appeal to my eye but there are plenty out there that like him a lot and I respect that. He's largely on my board as high as he is because of the case you've made for him.

The thing with Peters and Phillips is that, without meeting them, there's just no way of knowing. Both would grade much higher if you could be confident about their character but that's beyond what we can do. I've tried to reflect both their value and their risk by where I have them on the board. For example, in Jordan Phillips' case I have him behind Davis, Jarrett and Hardison who are DTs I like and ahead of Goldman who I don't really. He might be ahead of all of them if I was confident in his character. He also gets an "intrigue" tag as well as a red flag to show my reasoning behind his being on the board.

Just a quickie on the coloured tags. Please take note of them. They were meant to be my shorthand to explain why I've put a particular prospect on my board. If I'd had more time, I'd have probably put more time into this side of things, but it was merely intended to be a shortcut for typing a sentence or two explaining why someone is on the board.

Doing a Good joB

Thanks for the explanation. That makes more sense.

Obviously people are going to have differing opinions on the players you've picked/left off. I won't bother going into that in any depth as it's all a matter of opinion - but essentially you only think there is value for a OL or CB at 32. That's interesting in and of itself.

Personally, I agree with your 4 starter options for 32, although I would add in Agholor and Ogbuehi.

I think Agholor is a perfect fit for us - I can see him being our Reggie Wayne for the next 8-10 years (maybe not his level but his style - which Bill loves)

I also think Ogbuehi would be great value here. He has experience at RT, RG and LT - and I think he could play LG too. He is apparently going to be ready for training camp. I love his tape and he gives us lots of flexibility. Bill often drafts one year ahead and we have Vollmer's cap number steadily increasing as well as a potentially difficult negotiation with Solder. Ogbuehi could play guard this year and then offers us leverage in both negotiations. Plus you can never have enough franchise tackles….

So my top 3 players for 32 are Agholor, Ogbuehi and Cameron Erving (and Byron Jones but I think he is likely gone)

manxman2601 said:

No, I can absolutely see what you see with Rowe. He didn't overly appeal to my eye but there are plenty out there that like him a lot and I respect that. He's largely on my board as high as he is because of the case you've made for him.

Click to expand...

Thanks for the compliment.

manxman2601 said:

The thing with Peters and Phillips is that, without meeting them, there's just no way of knowing. Both would grade much higher if you could be confident about their character but that's beyond what we can do. I've tried to reflect both their value and their risk by where I have them on the board.

Click to expand...

Exactly!

manxman2601 said:

For example, in Jordan Phillips' case I have him behind Davis, Jarrett and Hardison who are DTs I like and ahead of Goldman who I don't really. He might be ahead of all of them if I was confident in his character. He also gets an "intrigue" tag as well as a red flag to show my reasoning behind his being on the board.

Click to expand...

Especially regarding Goldman I agree. The thing for me with Davis and Jarrett is I think in the right system they are plus starters but they don't have the diversity of Hardison. I think Hardison is higher risk with higher upside and diversity. I know you see the same diversity with Jarrett. If you're right and both were available BB will take Jarrett (assuming he doesn't pass on both for another player rated higher at another position).

everlong said:

Thanks for the compliment.


Exactly!



Especially regarding Goldman I agree. The thing for me with Davis and Jarrett is I think in the right system they are plus starters but they don't have the diversity of Hardison. I think Hardison is higher risk with higher upside and diversity. I know you see the same diversity with Jarrett. If you're right and both were available BB will take Jarrett (assuming he doesn't pass on both for another player rated higher at another position).

Click to expand...

Where possible I've tried to grade people based on their upside - that's why I have Smelter and Dexter McDonald so high. But in situations where I have two prospects that I see as having similar upside then I've looked at their floors and fit with the Patriots. Jarrett has the higher floor and I think is more likely to be drafted by the Pats. That's why he edged it.

zimmy said:

Thanks for the explanation. That makes more sense.

Obviously people are going to have differing opinions on the players you've picked/left off. I won't bother going into that in any depth as it's all a matter of opinion - but essentially you only think there is value for a OL or CB at 32. That's interesting in and of itself.

Personally, I agree with your 4 starter options for 32, although I would add in Agholor and Ogbuehi.

I think Agholor is a perfect fit for us - I can see him being our Reggie Wayne for the next 8-10 years (maybe not his level but his style - which Bill loves)

I also think Ogbuehi would be great value here. He has experience at RT, RG and LT - and I think he could play LG too. He is apparently going to be ready for training camp. I love his tape and he gives us lots of flexibility. Bill often drafts one year ahead and we have Vollmer's cap number steadily increasing as well as a potentially difficult negotiation with Solder. Ogbuehi could play guard this year and then offers us leverage in both negotiations. Plus you can never have enough franchise tackles….

So my top 3 players for 32 are Agholor, Ogbuehi and Cameron Erving (and Byron Jones but I think he is likely gone)

Click to expand...

Trust me, I had a real dilemma over Agholor. Bear in mind that two years ago I was a big fan of Robert Woods and I think Agholor is probably better than Woods. But..

1. I just don't see BB drafting a first round WR
2. ..........

you know what. Screw it. He's going in. If he's going to be anywhere close to Wayne then he needs to be considered. You have persuaded me. Check the board in about two minutes

I applaud you on your effort. I know first hand how taxing an exercise like this can be. I can't wait to dive into it more and compare/contrast with mine. I think it will create a great discussion the week before the draft. I hope to have mine done and out tonight or tomorrow morning. I really like that site and may check it out in the off season.
Again, great job on this and throughout the whole draft process. I have learned a lot from you and many others on here and I hope I have returned the favor at least a little bit.