Linebackers For 2015 and 2016

When Mayo and Hightower are healthy, we will have one of the very best set of linebackers in the NFL. IMHO, the draft is about the future, and we need to develop a linebacker for 2016, unless folks think that we will pay $14M for Hightower and Mayo.
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THE SITUATION

We will have Hightower locked in for 2016 at a cost of $7M.

We don't have Mayo's option numbers, but I expect them to be about the same.

We have Collins through 2016, and in 2017 at about $7M.
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While those numbers are reasonable for those players (Ill take you at your word for the cost) if we continue to play 75% nickel we won't have 3 top dollar LBs.

I wish the best for him, but recent history would indicate that Mayo's health is not a gamble to build a unit around. The unit may look strong, and it is on the edge, but the middle isn't.

AndyJohnson said:

While those numbers are reasonable for those players (Ill take you at your word for the cost) if we continue to play 75% nickel we won't have 3 top dollar LBs.

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fair enough

If one of Mayo and Hightower won't be here in 2016, then I would think that we need a 3rd LB. As you say, the patriots won't be paying the #3 LB $6M-7M a year.

Linebacker is not a need in this year's draft.

mgteich said:

fair enough

If one of Mayo and Hightower won't be here in 2016, then I would think that we need a 3rd LB. As you say, the patriots won't be paying the #3 LB $6M-7M a year.

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But that 3rd LB will play maybe 15 snaps a game, so they wont be spending a lot, or using a high pick on him.

Deus Irae said:

Linebacker is not a need in this year's draft.

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Not if you are drafting based only upon the 2015 team. If you are drafting with more than the current season in mind, as BB does, there is need at LB. I expect we will draft one on day 3.

mgteich said:

We will have Hightower locked in for 2016 at a cost of $7M.

We don't have Mayo's option numbers, but I expect them to be about the same.

We have Collins through 2016, and in 2017 at about $7M.

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We can't have Collins in 2017 at about $7M because he wasn't a first round pick like Hightower.

Deus Irae said:

Linebacker is not a need in this year's draft.

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We also know that value linebackers are easier to find in free agency or via in-season trades than a variety of other positions. OL, DL, CB and maybe a 3rd-down running back to fill Vereen's role are the needs in my book.

Dexter said:

We can't have Collins in 2017 at about $7M because he wasn't a first round pick like Hightower.

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I think a lot of people forget that Collins was a 2nd round pick, and isn't eligible for the 5th year option. As you said, he's scheduled to be a free agent in March of 2017.

goheels22002 said:

We also know that value linebackers are easier to find in free agency or via in-season trades than a variety of of other positions. OL, DL, CB and maybe a 3rd-down running back to fill Vereen's role are the needs in my book.

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I think that a look at history is in order. Belichick has NOT had trouble finding linemen during the season.

Early in BB's tenure with the Patriots, he paid up for more LBs than he could play at once.

Also, perhaps BB would play all three of Mayo/Hightower/Collins in a nickel defense. It's the like the idea behind 2 TE offensive sets -- versatility for starters, plus mismatches for offense and defense alike, and the Patriots will soon have more experience in playing through those mismatches than the opposition does.

mgteich said:

I think that a look at history is in order. Belichick has NOT had trouble finding linemen during the season.

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He's has some success with defensive linemen, but I can't recall any along the offensive line.

AndyJohnson said:

While those numbers are reasonable for those players (Ill take you at your word for the cost) if we continue to play 75% nickel we won't have 3 top dollar LBs.

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It wouldn't surprise me if we're approaching peak-nickel%, with the best teams starting to prioritise their run games more than they have been for the last few years.

Just look at how well the Cowboys did last year with that Pro Bowl OL. Seahwaks and Steelers have been running lots as well. Even the Broncos started running it properly after Manning hurt his thigh.

I would keep 3 top dollar LBs on the team, and I think Bill would see it the same way - we know he loves linebackers, just look at his Giants days.

The NFL keeps evolving, probably quicker than teams can replace talent. Better to be prepared than suddenly find that we can't stop good teams' run games.

I could see them grabbing a LB with one of the 96-97-101 picks.
I may take a flyer on Davis Tull with one of those picks.