Patriots draft predictions thread

BobDigital · Apr 20, 2015

It has been a fun off season and a lot of interesting mock drafts and predictions about whom the Patriots will take and what they will do have been made. The speculation is always interesting but now as the draft is close I want to bring up a few thoughts. The Patriots are often thought to be unpredictable but that is not true really. In fact I would argue they tend to be very predictable. Trends have popped up consistently with them and with very few exceptions are they broken. This is what I want to talk about. Not a mock but what we can honestly expect them to do. Here are my Expections.

#1 The Patriots will not draft a Guard with the top 2 picks and probably not till the 4th - I have seen the top Guards mocked a lot to the Patriots and have done it a lot myself. It is what I would do if I was in charge. But I am not and the trend here is clear. The Patriots don't draft guys they EXPECT the play on the inside high. Sure they have taken a few OT/OGs in the top 3 rounds but the OT was clearly emphasized there. The loan exception to this rule IMO is Mankins (with maybe Adrian Klemm but not really) who could play all 5 spots. Judging by past history it would take that kind of player for the Patriots to take a Guard in the higher rounds. Cameron Erving can potentially play all 5 spots but I don't think he is Mankins and I don't think the Patriots do either. The Patriots will keep with past trends and look to fill Guard in the later rounds. Look for John Miller or Mitch Morse.

#2 Defense first - There is a clear preference with the Patriots to take Defense in the first round. They have done so about 70% of the time and will again I think. The Exceptions are TEs - Graham, Watson, OG - Mankins, OT - Solder, RB - Maroney. If they do take a first round Offensive player it be one of the top 2 RBs (if they fall which I doubt) or an OT to replace Solder (which I doubt). They have never taken a WR in the draft in the first under BB and I doubt they do now. Generally though their philosophy so far indicates they value top defensive talent in the first and I would go with the odds.

#3 They will not trade down most likely - A lot of people predicted a Patriots trade down but I don't if we are talking about what is the most realistic option. Since the changes to rookie contracts (5th year option on FRPs and cap controls) BB has been very hesitant to trade out of the first. The only year he did it was a weak draft and he got 4 picks back in what was clearly a bad deal form Minnesota. The draft value chart said slight win. Logic said huge win. Unless BB gets offered a deal like that again I don't think he trades out. He values that fifth year a lot.

#4 BB will draft for next year - Belichick tends to always draft with an eye towards next year. That will be the case again this year and with reasonably high picks. It could be an OT, LB, WR or DE but something we don't see is going to be on the table for one of those high picks.

Just a few things to keep in mind.

zimmy · Apr 20, 2015

I think the Pats will draft OL with one of their top 2 picks. I don't think they send Dante around the country to work out every prospect without considering it a top need. I think this player could be an OT who could move to guard. It then gives them a bit of insurance if they can't get Solder signed.

My second prediction is that the Pats draft a WR with one of their other top 2 picks. After the Dobson failure this will be more in line with what they go for - 6ft and under, good cone and quick in and out of breaks type.

The Patriots will draft a corner but not until the 4th round.

manxman2601 · Apr 20, 2015

I'll say this, some time ago I mentioned that Doug Kyed had heard that the Pats liked Grady Jarrett as a first round pick and was a little sceptical at that high grade. Since then, Daniel Jeremiah has said that he's moving Jarrett into his top 50, Pat Kirwan says he's the best 3-tech in the draft and Pete Prisco thinks he "might just be worth a first round pick".

He is very good and I'd be fine with drafting him, I just had hoped it would be with our second pick rather than our first.

manxman2601 · Apr 20, 2015

As for predictions, I'll make two:

1. We will draft a RB and it will be Ameer Abdullah, David Johnson or Mike Davis

2. We will draft (or sign as a UDFA) a late round run stopping DT.

One other hunch that. I can't shake is that we'll draft a Kansas DB.

Bombdog · Apr 20, 2015

I'm going out on a limb and say that the Pats pick Justin Hardy WR from ECU in the third or fourth round. The kid if put with a great QB like Brady would be a steal. I saw him play a couple times. The kid will catch it if it is in his vicinity.

Hammer of Thor · Apr 20, 2015

One quibble with OP -- they've traded out of the 1st twice since the 5th year option's become available. 2013 as mentioned, but also with the 2nd pick in 2011 which was traded for a 2nd rounder and a 2012 1st which was used. So these rates are consistent with the old CBA rates.

BobDigital · Apr 20, 2015

Hammer of Thor said:
One quibble with OP -- they've traded out of the 1st twice since the 5th year option's become available. 2013 as mentioned, but also with the 2nd pick in 2011 which was traded for a 2nd rounder and a 2012 1st which was used. So these rates are consistent with the old CBA rates.

Well yes that happened in 2012 but they didn't trade it for a 2nd and 3rd ot 2nd and 4th which is more what i was talking about though yes you are correct.

The main thing i was trying to say is they put a lot of value on that 5th year option and have only traded away the ability to have it 1 time.

FredFromDartmouth · Apr 20, 2015

I think they will trade down. The Patriots have a lot of holes to fill without one single huge burning need (except at CB). I think they trade down into the second and hope to get PJ Williams or one of the other second tier CBs. Then can use the extra pick(s) for things like OG or DT or even WR.

Of course this is all idle speculation and even the Patriots cannot predict what they will do. It will depend on who is available at 32 when it is their turn and who they think will last until mid-way in the second.

The Boomer · Apr 20, 2015

I don't think the Patriots ever pick for need. Fit, athleticism (i.e. Collins) and value are all that matter. The Pats would rather fill their needs by other means than pass over the best player available each time they pick. Without moving up or down Arik Armstead, an under performing workout warrior, could be there to go to the Pats exactly at Pick 32 in the Top 300 published in SI magazine. He is projected to go all over the place but rarely if at all in the top 25. Someone else drafting sooner than New England might covet him, though he is a project and an under achiever. However, it's foreseeable that he or someone they value as much will be there for the taking at #32. Here are some positive takes about him:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2431895-why-oregon-dl-arik-armstead-should-be-a-top-10-draft-pick

Armstead and CB Byron Jones (who clearly fills a need) are the Collins type players that the Patriots love and patiently develop. This opinion includes both of them among the most athletic players in this draft:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...yron-jones-leads-nine-most-athletic-prospects

If either of them are there at #32, I don't see the Patriots trading out of the first round. If both are still there, perhaps the Patriots try to trade up if whoever they don't pick between these two slides far enough into the second round to stand out as a value pick that the Pats can target.

If there are truly 19 or 20 true first round level talents this year, the Pats will use their pick only if one of those players drops to them (probably not) or developmental athletes like Armstead, Brown or someone else the Patriots value enough remain there for the taking. Some teams might value them as having enough talent to be equivalent to the 20 or so true first rounders. If all of their swing for the fences prospects are gone, they trade down. If you can't get someone you value as a first round talent when it's your turn to pick, try to trade down. If you think the talent after the 20th pick is grouped into a tier that continues for the next 20 picks or so (more or less), try to trade down without going below the last pick in that tier.

The Boomer · Apr 20, 2015

I might not be far off. This mock draft tried to synthesize 20 other mock drafts to see how much consensus there was:

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/4/...-consensus-mock-jameis-winston-marcus-mariota

Armistead was gone by 15 to the 49ers. There was a high 40% consensus for him going then. No other DE players were picked between then and the Patriots. If Armistead doesn't go at 15, it's conceivable he could slide down 17 more spots.

With so many variable before Pick 32, there were 15 different presumably available players mocked to the Patriots there. Goldman, the top consensus pick (25%) was already gone to the Colts at 29. After sliding Marcus Peters was the next highest consensus pick (10%), Byron Jones and 12 others were picked by 5% of these remaining mock drafts.

If you buy this rough consensus, do you pick Peters, Jones, someone else or trade down?

Ochmed Jones · Apr 20, 2015

I like a lot of what you said to open this thread and think you are right on the money.

A couple of specific players continue to keep me guessing about what bb will or will not do in this draft.

1.) hundley qb ucla- theoretically a lot of potential interest if he is there at 32. Very easy for bb to find a dance partner.

2.) hunter de/olb LSU - athletic freak type that bb loves. See Collins and solder. Does a great job of standing up lineman and making plays at the Los. Special teams demon! But can not Find a qb to sack even if he had a lifetime subscription to google maps. Is bb in love with the tools or the production?

patchick · Apr 21, 2015

The Boomer said:
I don't think the Patriots ever pick for need. Fit, athleticism (i.e. Collins) and value are all that matter.

I hear this opinion a lot, and I have to ask: isn't it directly contradicted by Belichick's famous dictum?

"We're not accumulating talent; We're building a team."

You have to project how much of an upgrade a prospect represents to your roster over the next few years. That depends entirely on the players currently on that roster -- which is to say "need." If you ignored need you'd end up with a lineup of holes and redundancies, and a terrible allocation of resources.

patchick · Apr 21, 2015

My prediction:

Most years, fans dream of shiny objects like big, fast wide receivers and 3-down running backs, and end up with a total buzzkill as the Patriots go "boring." This year will be the reverse. With the fan base obsessing over left guards and nose tackles, BB goes glitzy.

Username · Apr 21, 2015

I think we'll be given the Jets first round next year prior to the draft and use it to trade up. Way up.

everlong · Apr 21, 2015

manxman2601 said:
I'll say this, some time ago I mentioned that Doug Kyed had heard that the Pats liked Grady Jarrett as a first round pick and was a little sceptical at that high grade. Since then, Daniel Jeremiah has said that he's moving Jarrett into his top 50, Pat Kirwan says he's the best 3-tech in the draft and Pete Prisco thinks he "might just be worth a first round pick".

He is very good and I'd be fine with drafting him, I just had hoped it would be with our second pick rather than our first.

Interestingly off of the same site in his latest mock Brinson has Jones going 31 to the Hawks and Rowe 32 to the Patriots. Maybe he's reading our stuff.

manxman2601 · Apr 21, 2015

everlong said:
Interestingly off of the same site in his latest mock Brinson has Jones going 31 to the Hawks and Rowe 32 to the Patriots. Maybe he's reading our stuff.

Well your stuff at least.

everlong · Apr 21, 2015

manxman2601 said:
Well your stuff at least.

Well they're the two guys we each each of us have been advocating. I'm actually a Jones fan I just happen to like Rowe by an eighth of a notch more because I believe he's the better of the two at press. I know you don't like Rowe as much but one game isn't the largest sample size. To each his own.

Ivan · Apr 21, 2015

BobDigital said:
It has been a fun off season and a lot of interesting mock drafts and predictions about whom the Patriots will take and what they will do have been made. The speculation is always interesting but now as the draft is close I want to bring up a few thoughts. The Patriots are often thought to be unpredictable but that is not true really. In fact I would argue they tend to be very predictable. Trends have popped up consistently with them and with very few exceptions are they broken. This is what I want to talk about. Not a mock but what we can honestly expect them to do. Here are my Expections.

#1 The Patriots will not draft a Guard with the top 2 picks and probably not till the 4th - I have seen the top Guards mocked a lot to the Patriots and have done it a lot myself. It is what I would do if I was in charge. But I am not and the trend here is clear. The Patriots don't draft guys they EXPECT the play on the inside high. Sure they have taken a few OT/OGs in the top 3 rounds but the OT was clearly emphasized there. The loan exception to this rule IMO is Mankins (with maybe Adrian Klemm but not really) who could play all 5 spots. Judging by past history it would take that kind of player for the Patriots to take a Guard in the higher rounds. Cameron Erving can potentially play all 5 spots but I don't think he is Mankins and I don't think the Patriots do either. The Patriots will keep with past trends and look to fill Guard in the later rounds. Look for John Miller or Mitch Morse.

#2 Defense first - There is a clear preference with the Patriots to take Defense in the first round. They have done so about 70% of the time and will again I think. The Exceptions are TEs - Graham, Watson, OG - Mankins, OT - Solder, RB - Maroney. If they do take a first round Offensive player it be one of the top 2 RBs (if they fall which I doubt) or an OT to replace Solder (which I doubt). They have never taken a WR in the draft in the first under BB and I doubt they do now. Generally though their philosophy so far indicates they value top defensive talent in the first and I would go with the odds.

#3 They will not trade down most likely - A lot of people predicted a Patriots trade down but I don't if we are talking about what is the most realistic option. Since the changes to rookie contracts (5th year option on FRPs and cap controls) BB has been very hesitant to trade out of the first. The only year he did it was a weak draft and he got 4 picks back in what was clearly a bad deal form Minnesota. The draft value chart said slight win. Logic said huge win. Unless BB gets offered a deal like that again I don't think he trades out. He values that fifth year a lot.

#4 BB will draft for next year - Belichick tends to always draft with an eye towards next year. That will be the case again this year and with reasonably high picks. It could be an OT, LB, WR or DE but something we don't see is going to be on the table for one of those high picks.

Just a few things to keep in mind.

Frustrating as it tends to be I think you are pretty much spot on with this. I think an OL is most likely around 100 with the three picks they have in that area and think he will go defense with his first rounder. The trade down is dependent upon what is being offered and who is available. And I agree that they look at both the next seasons draft class and future needs when addressing this years picks. All combine to almost always lead us down the wrong road when mocking picks to them and give those with binkies fits.

Ivan · Apr 21, 2015

I made a twelve pick proxy list for #32 and Brugler wiped it out.

Sfpat · Apr 21, 2015

everlong said:
Interestingly off of the same site in his latest mock Brinson has Jones going 31 to the Hawks and Rowe 32 to the Patriots. Maybe he's reading our stuff.

Must be dated as the Hawks traded the 31st pick a long time ago

Patriots draft predictions thread

Pro Bowl Player

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club

PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club

On the Game Day Roster

PatsFans.com Supporter

Pro Bowl Player

In the Starting Line-Up

On the Roster

On the Roster

Pro Bowl Player

Moderatrix

Moderatrix

2nd Team Getting Their First Start

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

Hall of Fame Poster

Hall of Fame Poster

In the Starting Line-Up

Similar threads