BobDigital
Pro Bowl Player
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It has been a fun off season and a lot of interesting mock drafts and predictions about whom the Patriots will take and what they will do have been made. The speculation is always interesting but now as the draft is close I want to bring up a few thoughts. The Patriots are often thought to be unpredictable but that is not true really. In fact I would argue they tend to be very predictable. Trends have popped up consistently with them and with very few exceptions are they broken. This is what I want to talk about. Not a mock but what we can honestly expect them to do. Here are my Expections.
#1 The Patriots will not draft a Guard with the top 2 picks and probably not till the 4th - I have seen the top Guards mocked a lot to the Patriots and have done it a lot myself. It is what I would do if I was in charge. But I am not and the trend here is clear. The Patriots don't draft guys they EXPECT the play on the inside high. Sure they have taken a few OT/OGs in the top 3 rounds but the OT was clearly emphasized there. The loan exception to this rule IMO is Mankins (with maybe Adrian Klemm but not really) who could play all 5 spots. Judging by past history it would take that kind of player for the Patriots to take a Guard in the higher rounds. Cameron Erving can potentially play all 5 spots but I don't think he is Mankins and I don't think the Patriots do either. The Patriots will keep with past trends and look to fill Guard in the later rounds. Look for John Miller or Mitch Morse.
#2 Defense first - There is a clear preference with the Patriots to take Defense in the first round. They have done so about 70% of the time and will again I think. The Exceptions are TEs - Graham, Watson, OG - Mankins, OT - Solder, RB - Maroney. If they do take a first round Offensive player it be one of the top 2 RBs (if they fall which I doubt) or an OT to replace Solder (which I doubt). They have never taken a WR in the draft in the first under BB and I doubt they do now. Generally though their philosophy so far indicates they value top defensive talent in the first and I would go with the odds.
#3 They will not trade down most likely - A lot of people predicted a Patriots trade down but I don't if we are talking about what is the most realistic option. Since the changes to rookie contracts (5th year option on FRPs and cap controls) BB has been very hesitant to trade out of the first. The only year he did it was a weak draft and he got 4 picks back in what was clearly a bad deal form Minnesota. The draft value chart said slight win. Logic said huge win. Unless BB gets offered a deal like that again I don't think he trades out. He values that fifth year a lot.
#4 BB will draft for next year - Belichick tends to always draft with an eye towards next year. That will be the case again this year and with reasonably high picks. It could be an OT, LB, WR or DE but something we don't see is going to be on the table for one of those high picks.
Just a few things to keep in mind.
#1 The Patriots will not draft a Guard with the top 2 picks and probably not till the 4th - I have seen the top Guards mocked a lot to the Patriots and have done it a lot myself. It is what I would do if I was in charge. But I am not and the trend here is clear. The Patriots don't draft guys they EXPECT the play on the inside high. Sure they have taken a few OT/OGs in the top 3 rounds but the OT was clearly emphasized there. The loan exception to this rule IMO is Mankins (with maybe Adrian Klemm but not really) who could play all 5 spots. Judging by past history it would take that kind of player for the Patriots to take a Guard in the higher rounds. Cameron Erving can potentially play all 5 spots but I don't think he is Mankins and I don't think the Patriots do either. The Patriots will keep with past trends and look to fill Guard in the later rounds. Look for John Miller or Mitch Morse.
#2 Defense first - There is a clear preference with the Patriots to take Defense in the first round. They have done so about 70% of the time and will again I think. The Exceptions are TEs - Graham, Watson, OG - Mankins, OT - Solder, RB - Maroney. If they do take a first round Offensive player it be one of the top 2 RBs (if they fall which I doubt) or an OT to replace Solder (which I doubt). They have never taken a WR in the draft in the first under BB and I doubt they do now. Generally though their philosophy so far indicates they value top defensive talent in the first and I would go with the odds.
#3 They will not trade down most likely - A lot of people predicted a Patriots trade down but I don't if we are talking about what is the most realistic option. Since the changes to rookie contracts (5th year option on FRPs and cap controls) BB has been very hesitant to trade out of the first. The only year he did it was a weak draft and he got 4 picks back in what was clearly a bad deal form Minnesota. The draft value chart said slight win. Logic said huge win. Unless BB gets offered a deal like that again I don't think he trades out. He values that fifth year a lot.
#4 BB will draft for next year - Belichick tends to always draft with an eye towards next year. That will be the case again this year and with reasonably high picks. It could be an OT, LB, WR or DE but something we don't see is going to be on the table for one of those high picks.
Just a few things to keep in mind.
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