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Interesting Tidbit from Albert Breer about the Wells' Investigation Today (4/10)


I just heard Felger's spin on the Curran article. They are taking Curran as hard facts when Curran said himself that he doesn't even know if his source is speaking the truth or just rumors that are being spread as facts.

Even if what Curran says is true, and the league is still giving us a hard time, what difference would it make? They aren't going to find anything. People have to have more faith in a) the interpretation of gas laws as performed by competent people b) the gas laws themselves, which we have known for a long time now, and are well understood.

I would say it would be surprising to me that the league was still trying their dunk the witch in water approach that they first took, because by now it seems that Columbia's results would've shown them the lack of merit in a less scientific approach. However, from the Patriots point of view, if our most recent understanding of the basic facts of the case holds, there is nothing to worry about. They will not find evidence of the Patriots tampering with balls because they did not tamper with balls.
 
Even if what Curran says is true, and the league is still giving us a hard time, what difference would it make? They aren't going to find anything. People have to have more faith in a) the interpretation of gas laws as performed by competent people b) the gas laws themselves, which we have known for a long time now, and are well understood.

I would say it would be surprising to me that the league was still trying their dunk the witch in water approach that they first took, because by now it seems that Columbia's results would've shown them the lack of merit in a less scientific approach. However, from the Patriots point of view, if our most recent understanding of the basic facts of the case holds, there is nothing to worry about. They will not find evidence of the Patriots tampering with balls because they did not tamper with balls.

Personally, I feel that if the stories are true, that means that Wells isn't finding anything on Pats. Felger mentioned Kliff Kingsbury possibly being interviewed. But if they are interviewing Kingsbury or Rohan Davey or Michael Bishop, that means they most likely are chasing windmills to find anyone able to give them something resembling a smoking gun.

Again, I don't think nor did Breer infer that the investigation has turned to the League and the Colts. I think even if Wells uncovered a sting operation where the League and Colts conspired to set up the Pats, they were going to unturn every rock with the Pats until they found proof of cheating or exhausted every avenue. That was never the point of this thread (only Sharks of Vegas believes that). I still don't think Wells can ignore the League and Colts now.

I think ultimately that the Wells report will have a finding of no proof of tampering with the footballs. I don't know if they will position it as they just found no evidence and they could have done it or they exonerate the Patriots. That is why I think I agree with Breer that the findings of how the league and Colts acted before and during the game may be the key to the report. If Kensil and Grigson conspired to trap the Pats, I think that is wrong. The league and a team should not work together to catch other teams cheating especially since Kensil didn't report this to Goodell. If someone on the Colts stuck something into the ball to "gauge" the PSI for the intercepted ball, I have a problem with that too because that is illegal according to the rules and we have no way of knowing if they didn't deflate the ball themselves (either on purpose or by accident).
 
I think ultimately that the Wells report will have a finding of no proof of tampering with the footballs. I don't know if they will position it as they just found no evidence and they could have done it or they exonerate the Patriots. That is why I think I agree with Breer that the findings of how the league and Colts acted before and during the game may be the key to the report. If Kensil and Grigson conspired to trap the Pats, I think that is wrong. The league and a team should not work together to catch other teams cheating especially since Kensil didn't report this to Goodell. If someone on the Colts stuck something into the ball to "gauge" the PSI for the intercepted ball, I have a problem with that too because that is illegal according to the rules and we have no way of knowing if they didn't deflate the ball themselves (either on purpose or by accident).

Good points. I agree with all of the above, I think. I especially agree with the point about the Colts measuring the Patriots ball on the sideline. If that happened, I would have a problem with that. And I think even the league would.

Right, it could just be that Wells is being as exhaustive as possible, without the agenda that the league initiated the investigation with. Interviewing Kingsbury would be - IMO - unnecessary due diligence, but maybe Wells is aware of the skepticism against the Patriots. Even if he accepted Columbia's interpretation of the events, he might realize he would still require a great deal of evidence the Patriots did not tamper.

But, we won't know until the GD thing comes out.
 
Personally, I feel that if the stories are true, that means that Wells isn't finding anything on Pats. Felger mentioned Kliff Kingsbury possibly being interviewed. But if they are interviewing Kingsbury or Rohan Davey or Michael Bishop, that means they most likely are chasing windmills to find anyone able to give them something resembling a smoking gun.

Again, I don't think nor did Breer infer that the investigation has turned to the League and the Colts. I think even if Wells uncovered a sting operation where the League and Colts conspired to set up the Pats, they were going to unturn every rock with the Pats until they found proof of cheating or exhausted every avenue. That was never the point of this thread (only Sharks of Vegas believes that). I still don't think Wells can ignore the League and Colts now.

I think ultimately that the Wells report will have a finding of no proof of tampering with the footballs. I don't know if they will position it as they just found no evidence and they could have done it or they exonerate the Patriots. That is why I think I agree with Breer that the findings of how the league and Colts acted before and during the game may be the key to the report. If Kensil and Grigson conspired to trap the Pats, I think that is wrong. The league and a team should not work together to catch other teams cheating especially since Kensil didn't report this to Goodell. If someone on the Colts stuck something into the ball to "gauge" the PSI for the intercepted ball, I have a problem with that too because that is illegal according to the rules and we have no way of knowing if they didn't deflate the ball themselves (either on purpose or by accident).

It is not against any rules for the colts to gage a intercepted football. Past practice in the NFL allows a intercepted ball to be kept as a souvenir. They could gage it, paint it and stab it with a knife or throw it in the stands. They can not gage it and then present it as a ball for use in the game. We have no idea if they told the refs, they thought it was soft and measured it and found it so. There is nothing wrong with that. The chain of custody is broken so that ball should not be used for evidence but it certainly can be used as a reason to flag the refs.
 
It is not against any rules for the colts to gage a intercepted football. Past practice in the NFL allows a intercepted ball to be kept as a souvenir. They could gage it, paint it and stab it with a knife or throw it in the stands. They can not gage it and then present it as a ball for use in the game. We have no idea if they told the refs, they thought it was soft and measured it and found it so. There is nothing wrong with that. The chain of custody is broken so that ball should not be used for evidence but it certainly can be used as a reason to flag the refs.

Good points, but the problem is that gauging a ball releases air, and we have no idea how many times they stuck a needle in it. As you say, its useless for evidence. It does not reflect how much air was in the ball when Brady let go of the pass.
 
It is not against any rules for the colts to gage a intercepted football. Past practice in the NFL allows a intercepted ball to be kept as a souvenir. They could gage it, paint it and stab it with a knife or throw it in the stands. They can not gage it and then present it as a ball for use in the game. We have no idea if they told the refs, they thought it was soft and measured it and found it so. There is nothing wrong with that. The chain of custody is broken so that ball should not be used for evidence but it certainly can be used as a reason to flag the refs.

It is 100% illegal for the Colts to stick a gauge in a football while the game is going. While the game is going, no one can do anything any of the game balls. After the game it is legal. Even if it is being kept as a souvenir, there is a chance that it may have to be put back in the game. Also, there is no way to track which ball is which from a league perspective. Who knows if they put a gauge in it and then put it back in the game by accident.

The rule is specific that no game ball can be tampered with in any way during the game. There is no exception for balls being kept for souvenirs. In fact, the rule states that if one team runs out of acceptable balls for any reason, that the other team will give them theirs. So there is always a chance any ball could be put into the game even ones kept as souvenirs.
 
Good points, but the problem is that gauging a ball releases air, and we have no idea how many times they stuck a needle in it. As you say, its useless for evidence. It does not reflect how much air was in the ball when Brady let go of the pass.

An engineer poster here tom.k ran tests that revealed gauging was usually inconsequential regarding psi EXCEPT when done carelessly. Way too much opportunity for someone with an agenda to "accidentally" let several tenths of a psi out to allow such gauging.
 
An engineer poster here tom.k ran tests that revealed gauging was usually inconsequential regarding psi EXCEPT when done carelessly. Way too much opportunity for someone with an agenda to "accidentally" let several tenths of a psi out to allow such gauging.

Interesting - thanks for the clarification, PWP.
 
It is 100% illegal for the Colts to stick a gauge in a football while the game is going. While the game is going, no one can do anything any of the game balls. After the game it is legal. Even if it is being kept as a souvenir, there is a chance that it may have to be put back in the game. Also, there is no way to track which ball is which from a league perspective. Who knows if they put a gauge in it and then put it back in the game by accident.

The rule is specific that no game ball can be tampered with in any way during the game. There is no exception for balls being kept for souvenirs. In fact, the rule states that if one team runs out of acceptable balls for any reason, that the other team will give them theirs. So there is always a chance any ball could be put into the game even ones kept as souvenirs.

I think one of the reasons for a team running out of acceptable balls is interceptions and throwing the ball into the stands. Now players do get fined for it, -the cost of a ball.
But I seen players take and intercepted ball with them into the lockeroom. And if they did gage it, big deal, who cares? You think doing something like that even deserves a phone call from the league?
 
I think one of the reasons for a team running out of acceptable balls is interceptions and throwing the ball into the stands. Now players do get fined for it, -the cost of a ball.
But I seen players take and intercepted ball with them into the lockeroom. And if they did gage it, big deal, who cares? You think doing something like that even deserves a phone call from the league?

Sorry, but the rules are the rules. If this whole thing started because the Colts stuck a gauge in a football, which is against the rules, and found it was deflated and if that ball was deflated more than any other ball. That is a big issue. I don't think it is a big deal in a typical game. In fact, I think this whole thing is a bunch of whooey. But if the rumors are true that only one ball was 2 PSI under regulation, that ball was the intercepted ball, and it is found that the Colts stuck a gauge in the ball? That is an earth shattering bombshell (at least as big as how the media made the ball boy taking a leak was) and the Colts need to be punished. There is no way to know if they purposely deflated the ball to set up the ball cheating or air was just let out by accident (whenever you gauge a ball, there is air that leaks out). I think that is really big.

And players who throw balls into the stands get fined thousands of dollars. LeGarrette Blount and Michael Crabtree were both fined $5,512 each for throwing the ball into stands last year That is far more than the cost of the ball that retails for about $100. So it is a bigger issue than you make it out to be.

You can argue that up until Deflategate the league were very laxed on their existing rules and didn't properly enforce these rules and didn't seem to care, but that doesn't mean the rules are the rules. But if all of the sudden, they are going to make Deflategate a big deal (which in the rule book has a recommended punishment of like $20k), everything must be under the same scrutiny. That includes if the Colts' gauged the intercepted ball which is as illegal as what the Pats are accused of.
 
LeGarrette Blount and Michael Crabtree were both fined $5,512 each for throwing the ball into stands last year That is far more than the cost of the ball that retails for about $100. So it is a bigger issue than you make it out to be.

The fine is for throwing the ball into the stands - supposed to be a fan safety issue with multiple fans lunging for the ball. I think it is the case that it is permissible to hand the ball to someone in the stands.
 
The fine is for throwing the ball into the stands - supposed to be a fan safety issue with multiple fans lunging for the ball. I think it is the case that it is permissible to hand the ball to someone in the stands.

Even so, that is still different than gauging a ball on the sidelines even from a ball being kept for souvenir. And again, I have already said the league is hypocritical about their rules. They have known other teams have tampered with balls by heating them and only given them warnings. They knowingly allowed an NFL handle balls during the game who they knew was stealing balls from play. Refs have a history of only hand testing the balls by squeezing them rather than gauging them. They did not record the PSI on any ball even at halftime. It is one of those rules that aren't enforced until the Pats gets accused of violating them.

My point is if the league is going all the sudden investigate the Pats and potentially punish them for a rule they rarely if ever enforced in the past, they need to hold the Colts to the same standards. The rules clearly state that all game balls cannot be tampered with in any way including sticking a needle in and gauging the football after the refs have inspected it. There is no souvenir game ball exception. Prior to the AFCCG, teams could pretty much do anything with the balls and get away with it unless they were caught on camera on national TV like the ball warming incident. The league just didn't care.

Besides, if this whole thing was set off because the Colts purposely or accidentally deflated the ball and the ball probably wasn't below or much below acceptable levels, the Colts deserve to be punished in some way even if it wasn't against the rules. If Ian Rappaport's report is true and all the other balls were just a tick under 13.5 PSI, the Colts unfairly tarnished the Patriots name either by accident or deliberately. That cannot go unpunished. It may not be a loss of draft picks, but it deserves at least a fine.
 
An engineer poster here tom.k ran tests that revealed gauging was usually inconsequential regarding psi EXCEPT when done carelessly. Way too much opportunity for someone with an agenda to "accidentally" let several tenths of a psi out to allow such gauging.

Correct.
Just by doing the tests, I learned several things, that I hadn't previously realized, about something as simple as sticking a needle into a football.

1) mach 1 spit works just fine as a lubricant for the needle. Use it every time.

2) clean out the top of the valve & the outside of the needle before measuring. Any grit or dirt can be pushed into the valve, causing an immediate leak, or a long term leak after the needle is removed.

3) The easiest way to let air out unintentionally, is to put any side pressure on the needle. This causes the valve to "ovalize", & an oval valve won't seal on a cylindrical needle. This DID happen to me a couple of times before I got my technique down.

4) With bad technique (producing a momentary hiss), you could lose 0.05 - 0.1 psi per measurement.
With horrible technique (producing a long hiss), you could lose nearly 0.2 psi per measurement.

5) because of 3) above, the best technique is to quickly sink the needle ALL THE WAY into the valve in one fast stroke, bottoming out on the needle housing. This allows you to support the body of the pressure gauge against the surface of the football. Pushing the needle in half-way, then trying to hold the gauge in the right position such that the needle stays straight while you take a reading, is a good way to bleed air out of the ball.

I knew that I was going to be doing a lot of pressure measurements, & I wanted to know exactly how much those measurements were going to change the pressure. So I ran a check of about 30 sequential measurements per ball, without any other change to their condition.

Using the above techniques, I found that it took a fairly consistent 9-12 measurements to drop the pressure in the ball by 0.1 psi. Or around 0.01 psi per measurement. So this is inconsequential.

I assume that anyone who checks pressure often (such as the ball boys & refs) will stumble onto these tricks.
I don't believe that the typical NFL player, coach or team official (e.g., GM) will inflate balls very often.
__

With regard to the Colts' measuring the intercepted ball:
Assuming the Colts were NOT attempting to "rig" the results with lots of air-releasing measurements, it seems clear to me that they would have had to have done at least 4 measurements, most likely 6 to 8, on one ball only.

The first time by whoever had suspicion that something was "wrong". (Grigson? Who actually did the measurement? Grigson or a ball boy?)
A 2nd check by the same person, just to make sure.
A 3rd check, to show other Colts' officials/coaches, to decide whether to protest.
A 4th time to show a referee.
Then perhaps a 5th time for the ref to do the measurement himself, to convince himself that the pressure was low.

(Note that, when taking measurements and something comes up "unexpected", there is always a tendency to repeat the measurement, looking for consistency.)

Then the ref would have become suspicious & asked for the Pats balls, down on the field.
Likely he would have checked 2 to 4 of those balls, perhaps once each.

And then, when the ref was convinced the readings were low, he gathered up all the Pats balls & brings them to the locker room, that one ball gets a 6th check.

In this scenario, one ball gets checked about 5-8 times.
2 to 4 balls get checked twice.
The remaining balls get checked once.

But even with 7 measurements, the pressure drop in that one ball should have been only about 0.07 psi.
As long as they were checked with good technique.
That minimal error is inconsequential to the discussion.
And lost in the noise of the resolution & accuracy of the gauges.
__

I don't believe that it is illegal to check the pressure of any ball, according to the rules, unless they attempted to re-introduce that ball into play.
I don't think that there is any way to do that, or any intention to do that, because the Pats' balls are kept on the Pats' side of the field. And handled by the Pats' ball boys. None of the Pats' players or ball boys are going to take a ball from a Colt player & introduce it into the mix. If they had, it would have come out already.

As to whether or not it was legal for the refs to re-inflate the Pats' balls, I believe that it was not legal. But I'm inclined to give the refs the benefit of the doubt. Even tho they were wrong to do so, I believe it is likely that they viewed it as "correcting a faulty condition."
__

Finally, I believe that the whole question of "did the Colts let air out of the one ball they intercepted" is a fair misdirection (that can only be responsible for about 0.1 psi drop of one ball), because the cold wet conditions will clearly, unequivocally, be responsible for a 1.5 psi pressure loss in the Pats' balls.
 
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2) clean out the top of the valve & the outside of the needle before measuring. Any grit or dirt can be pushed into the valve, causing an immediate leak, or a long term leak after the needle is removed.

And what do you think the chances are the Colts (or the refs) before measuring the pressure did just such a careful and thorough cleaning of the valve of a football that had recently been dredged through a dirty and very wet field ?
 
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And what do you think the chances are the Colts (or the refs) before measuring the pressure did just such a careful and thorough cleaning of the valve of a football that had recently been dredged through a dirty and very wet field ?

The pressure that balls, inflated to 12.5 pi @ 75°F, SHOULD depressurize to after 90 minutes of exposure to 50°F rainy conditions and no leaks is 11.0 psi. This is right on the money with the early reports of "2 pounds under". (That should have said, "2 psi below the league nominal setting of 13.0 psig.")

If any ball had a leak for any length of time (i.e., >10 minutes), then there should have been a statement to the effect: "and one ball was noted at (somewhere between 2 & 10 psi)", depending on the severity of the leak.

In other words, the pressure was right where it was supposed to be, based on temperature & rain conditions alone. Any air leaks would have shown up as "inexplicable low pressure" in one or two balls.

We have, instead, "completely explicable low pressure."
 
The pressure that balls, inflated to 12.5 pi @ 75°F, SHOULD depressurize to after 90 minutes of exposure to 50°F rainy conditions and no leaks is 11.0 psi. This is right on the money with the early reports of "2 pounds under". (That should have said, "2 psi below the league nominal setting of 13.0 psig.")

If any ball had a leak for any length of time (i.e., >10 minutes), then there should have been a statement to the effect: "and one ball was noted at (somewhere between 2 & 10 psi)", depending on the severity of the leak.

In other words, the pressure was right where it was supposed to be, based on temperature & rain conditions alone. Any air leaks would have shown up as "inexplicable low pressure" in one or two balls.

We have, instead, "completely explicable low pressure."

You can use the dew point when it is wet. I believe it was 44.5 at the half :)
 
You can use the dew point when it is wet. I believe it was 44.5 at the half :)

I don't get this.

As I understand it, the dew point is the temperature at which vapor water & liquid water are at equilibrium. And when the temp drops to the dew point, fog forms.

During the game, there was rain, but very clearly no fog.

Ergo, the air temp was above the dew point.

The dry bulb temp was around 49 - 50°F.

I BELIEVE that the rain water temperature was substantially below this (perhaps 3 - 15°F lower) because the rain water fell from altitude, where the air temp is much lower. It also appears, from some brief internet scanning, that rain water forms at very, very low temps. Well below 32°F.

The wet atmospheric temperature lapse rate is typically around 3°F/1000 feet elevation. If the clouds from which the water originated were at an altitude of just 2000 ft, then the water would have formed (& near equilibrated) to air that was ~6°F colder than the ground temp. Higher elevations mean colder rain water.

But I haven't seen any info on rain water temperature to give me any hard data. If anyone has any, I'd be really grateful to read it.
 
right on the money with the early reports of "2 pounds under". (That should have said, "2 psi below the league nominal setting of 13.0 psig.")

Well it's ambiguous whether "2 pounds under" means "2 pounds under nominal" or "2 pounds under minimum." If it's the latter, we still might need to find half a pound someplace. The fact that the one ball was apparently lower than the others supports some air having been let out (quite possibly unintentionally) during gauging.
 
Don't forget that Florio had a report 2 weeks after Mort's that said only a single ball was 2 psi under and that the rest varied from 1ish psi under to "only a few ticks under."
 


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