BobDigital
Pro Bowl Player
- Joined
- Aug 10, 2013
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IMHO passing on that down was the right thing to do. If you run on 2nd you get too predictable on 3rd.
I do however question the play called in. I think they should have ran something else. A fade to the outside where it would be over thrown or caught not in the middle of the D where crazy things can happen.
I understand why they called that particular play though. When push comes to shove do you want to throw to Revis or Browner or Butler? Butler would seem to be the obvious choice and the Pats set it up that you would have to throw over the middle to do that.
That tall WR (forget his name) did nothing since Browner was put on him in the game so a jump ball might not have worked and Revis 1v1 was winning all day till a ref pick.
The trade off is this.
A) Pass to Butler and have a higher success rate likelihood but you greatly increase the risk of a game losing play.
or
B) Go after Browner/Revis on the outside and your pass is more likely to be incomplete but unless the pass is just a total miss or line tip (very unlikely) it becomes virtually impossible to lose the game on that play.
If I were to put it is math terms I'd guess that
A) pass completion chance 40-50% interception chance 5%
B) pass completion chance 10-20% interception chance >1%
After this play you would have 2 chances to run it in. How sure are you that you would make it? I would say they had a reason to be confident and could afford to be conservative there. But I think this is overblown as how bad the playcall was.
If they take a conservative tact the ball is probably incomplete on 2nd down and now you have 2 downs left. If the Pats go single coverage and sell out on the run they might have stopped them anyway. The Pats rarely sold out to stop the run most of the game.
I do however question the play called in. I think they should have ran something else. A fade to the outside where it would be over thrown or caught not in the middle of the D where crazy things can happen.
I understand why they called that particular play though. When push comes to shove do you want to throw to Revis or Browner or Butler? Butler would seem to be the obvious choice and the Pats set it up that you would have to throw over the middle to do that.
That tall WR (forget his name) did nothing since Browner was put on him in the game so a jump ball might not have worked and Revis 1v1 was winning all day till a ref pick.
The trade off is this.
A) Pass to Butler and have a higher success rate likelihood but you greatly increase the risk of a game losing play.
or
B) Go after Browner/Revis on the outside and your pass is more likely to be incomplete but unless the pass is just a total miss or line tip (very unlikely) it becomes virtually impossible to lose the game on that play.
If I were to put it is math terms I'd guess that
A) pass completion chance 40-50% interception chance 5%
B) pass completion chance 10-20% interception chance >1%
After this play you would have 2 chances to run it in. How sure are you that you would make it? I would say they had a reason to be confident and could afford to be conservative there. But I think this is overblown as how bad the playcall was.
If they take a conservative tact the ball is probably incomplete on 2nd down and now you have 2 downs left. If the Pats go single coverage and sell out on the run they might have stopped them anyway. The Pats rarely sold out to stop the run most of the game.