Comforting tweet from Sharks of Vegas

BradyManny said:

January 22nd:

Sharks of Vegas‏@SharksOfVegas
BREAKING - Our source has CONFIRMED there will be NO penalties imposed on the Patriots by the NFL in the wake of deflategate.

This is the day before Wells was even announced to be hired to create a report with which the NFL would use to determine punishments, so I have to doubt the validity of their sources. If they had said on January 22nd "hey, Ted Wells is going to be hired for a report!" I would consider them much more prescient.

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How does the hiring of Ted Wells conflict with that SOV tweet? Sure SOV didn't tweet about Wells being hired before it was posted elsewhere. But it's not like SOV tweeted "The NFL is NOT going to hire an independent investigator".

And the NFL hiring an independent investigator is not necessary incompatible with the " NO penalties imposed on the Patriots" SOV tweet early on in this whole thing. For all we know the NFL could have taken a quick look at it, didn't see anything obvious from the Pats and chalked it up to PV=nRT. So the " NO penalties imposed on the Patriots" tweet and the "it should be wrapped up quickly" stories come out. Then something happens that makes the NFL go "Hold on, WTF? This may go deeper than just a few cold footballs" and hires Ted Wells.

I'm taking SOV tweets with a healthy grain of salt. Just like I'm taking reports or tweets from anywhere with skepticism. But I'm not dismissing them out of hand either.

Peachhead said:

How does the hiring of Ted Wells conflict with that SOV tweet? Sure SOV didn't tweet about Wells being hired before it was posted elsewhere. But it's not like SOV tweeted "The NFL is NOT going to hire an independent investigator".

And the NFL hiring an independent investigator is not necessary incompatible with the " NO penalties imposed on the Patriots" SOV tweet early on in this whole thing. For all we know the NFL could have taken a quick look at it, didn't see anything obvious from the Pats and chalked it up to PV=nRT. So the " NO penalties imposed on the Patriots" tweet and the "it should be wrapped up quickly" stories come out. Then something happens that makes the NFL go "Hold on, WTF? This may go deeper than just a few cold footballs" and hires Ted Wells.

I'm taking SOV tweets with a healthy grain of salt. Just like I'm taking reports or tweets from anywhere with skepticism. But I'm not dismissing them out of hand either.

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From January:

Sharks of Vegas @SharksOfVegas · 3h3 hours ago
Official announcement is expected sometime over the weekend. NFL simply has no "proof" the Patriots themselves tampered with the balls.

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http://patsfans.com/new-england-pat...ere-we-go-again.1115247/page-249#post-4085855

Latest from Sharks of Vegas


Have no idea if this guy is legit but people seem to think/hope he is. This is from yesterday

It seems too good to be true. It would be awesome if the colts were responsible for this. The entire national media killed the pats for this. Think of all the people who would look stupid and all the colt fans reactions would be great. After manning left the pats/Indy rivalry really died here. Indy still hated the pats but I didn't really hate Indy anymore. Now after all this I hope we stomp on them next year. I mean a 60-3 kinda stomping.

Never mind. Just saw another thread was already posted. Go Pats!!

4thRing-Hunt said:

It seems too good to be true. It would be awesome if the colts were responsible for this. The entire national media killed the pats for this. Think of all the people who would look stupid and all the colt fans reactions would be great. After manning left the pats/Indy rivalry really died here. Indy still hated the pats but I didn't really hate Indy anymore. Now after all this I hope we stomp on them next year. I mean a 60-3 kinda stomping.

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With any luck, Irsay would drown in his puke after the resulting anger-fueled binge.

BREAKING: NFL investigating Patriots for hacking Darrelle Revis' Instagram account

Peachhead said:

How does the hiring of Ted Wells conflict with that SOV tweet? Sure SOV didn't tweet about Wells being hired before it was posted elsewhere. But it's not like SOV tweeted "The NFL is NOT going to hire an independent investigator".

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See Deus Irae's post below. And I do think it conflicts anyway. How could SoV be certain that the Patriots were not being punished when the real investigation had not even begun. Even if they accepted PV = nRT as explanation at that point (which flies in the face of everything we know so far, since it wasn't until Wells was on board that anyone reached out to a scientist or did anything other than try to interrogate our staff into submission), it seems rather premature for someone to proclaim no punishment to come to the Patriots. As has been said before, the NFL may take the super stupid action of punishing the Patriots for simply having the balls be under the minimum, even if that requires them mangling an interpretation of the rule about playable balls. It's the NFL after all!

Our detractors were too ready to believe rampant speculation that aligned with their beliefs - we should not make the same mistake. SoV has all the makings of someone who is guessing right based on looking at all the information readily available to anyone, and common sense alone (which, admittedly, puts him ahead of 95% of the media). I doubt he has any inside information.

Ivan said:

If the Patriots are sanctioned they would be wrong but so far that hasn't happened and I don't believe they will be.

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If someone can point to one statement they have made so far that has unambiguously turned true AND preceded similar statements by Tom E Curran or Adam Schefter, I will rethink my opinion. Until then, they are Erika Leigh on steroids.

The negativity on this site is unbelievable. I wonder if it's like this everywhere or if it's new England sports fans who simply can't help but be miserable no matter how good they have it?

BradyManny said:

See Deus Irae's post below. And I do think it conflicts anyway. How could SoV be certain that the Patriots were not being punished when the real investigation had not even begun. Even if they accepted PV = nRT as explanation at that point (which flies in the face of everything we know so far, since it wasn't until Wells was on board that anyone reached out to a scientist or did anything other than try to interrogate our staff into submission), it seems rather premature for someone to proclaim no punishment to come to the Patriots.

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Already answered that. They could have had a league source who told them the league found nothing implicating the Patriots but didn't know they were bringing Wells in. Given that Troy Vincent said it would be done in a couple of days even those high up in the league office are unaware that independent investigators were going to be coming in.

I'm still waiting for anyone to show something they were wrong about, to my knowledge the Patriots haven't. been sanctioned so they certainly weren't wrong about that. These guys are putting this stuff out publicly so it should be easy to find if they were wrong.

BradyManny said:

If someone can point to one statement they have made so far that has unambiguously turned true AND preceded similar statements by Tom E Curran or Adam Schefter, I will rethink my opinion. Until then, they are Erika Leigh on steroids.

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They wrote in the days after the Kravitz tweet that no one on the Patriots messed with any balls, and that there was no smoking gun. This was in the next day or two after it all blew up, long before Belivhick or Brady or Krafts press conferences.

upstater1 said:

They wrote in the days after the Kravitz tweet that no one on the Patriots messed with any balls, and that there was no smoking gun. This was in the next day or two after it all blew up, long before Belivhick or Brady or Krafts press conferences.

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The fact that he wrote this, that early, suggests to me one of two possible things:
1) he knows enough about temperature & pressure to have done the calculation himself (& therefore, doesn't depend on anyone else's information or knowledge), or

2) he is a good enough researcher/reporter to know enough to consult with someone who knows. Most likely, one or more competent scientist(s) or engineer(s).

In either case, one gets the right answer in a matter of minutes.

As soon as one runs the numbers and discovers that the change in temperature accounts for ALL of the pressure drop, the conclusions that you list become inevitable.

IIRC Sharks was the first to mention Kensil's name in this before anyone else did.

I think they do have a source that is probably "on the inside" but I wouldn't say it's 100% reliable. Hopefully they are right on this.

rlcarr said:

And they've been wrong plenty of times as well. I'll believe it when I see it.

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Really? When have they been wrong on Deflategate?

I agree with BradyManny in post #5 when he said that they really haven't BROKEN any news, merely piggybacked on stuff that was already intimated elsewhere. That does not include being wrong. In the past 3 months of this ongoing saga, I have not seen one instance where they have tweeted anything categorically wrong.

It's not as if they are the New York Post or anything.

BradyManny said:

January 22nd:

Sharks of Vegas‏@SharksOfVegas
BREAKING - Our source has CONFIRMED there will be NO penalties imposed on the Patriots by the NFL in the wake of deflategate.

This is the day before Wells was even announced to be hired to create a report with which the NFL would use to determine punishments, so I have to doubt the validity of their sources. If they had said on January 22nd "hey, Ted Wells is going to be hired for a report!" I would consider them much more prescient.

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They may have been 100% correct at the time.

The internal NFL investigation in those first few days may have uncovered no Patriots culpability - - - yet, uncovered Kensil's actions, Grigson prior week alerting of NFL representatives that were NOT handled pregame, and finally good ol' Scott Miller's entrepreneurial skills with the kicking balls.

All of that very may well have forced the NFL to change directions on Thursday January 22nd.

Note closely that date. That is the same day that the Patriots (after saying exactly nothing in the previous 3 days regarding the intense scandal) changed directions and first went on the offensive with Belichick's initial convincing presser and Brady's initial weak presser. The Patriots suits obviously felt pretty confident at that moment.

shmessy said:

Really? When have they been wrong on Deflategate?

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See DI's post above (#22 in the thread) for one example.

shmessy said:

All of that very may well have forced the NFL to change directions on Thursday January 22nd.

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It's certainly possible - but again, I point to the fact that Wells reached out to Columbia on the Monday only after Belichick's science fair on Saturday. The Patriots were more on top of this then the league and the Keystone cops running it.

I agree with your overall sentiment though - SharksofVegas could very well be right. They probably are right, and that would be great news. But my personal feeling is that they are just another internet guesser, using what information they have to make mildly interesting that will probably come true so they look like heroes.

upstater1 said:

They wrote in the days after the Kravitz tweet that no one on the Patriots messed with any balls, and that there was no smoking gun. This was in the next day or two after it all blew up, long before Belivhick or Brady or Krafts press conferences.

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But posters were saying the same thing here. I don't think SoV has said anything that wasn't said on patsfans.com, Tom E Currans' blog, or out of Schefter's mouth first.

rlcarr said:

See DI's post above (#22 in the thread) for one example.

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Again, they may have been right and the nfl, for the sake of propriety decided later to bring in wells. The NFL did not want to look like they were sweeping it under the rug like they did with Rice. Now as others have said, I think it is just an "informed & educated opinion" and not a direct source that is tied to the league. I happen to think that in the first few days someone in the league asked the question how could this have occurred and someone mentioned the gas laws as a possibility.

To me the only thing that could be causing the delay is that the investigation went off on a different tangent. I worked in a rubber polymer lab and have done many FMEAs, control plans, and PPAPs for the Automotive industry. A lab test to simulate these conditions with enough redundancies would not have taken for than a couple of weeks for Columbia to duplicate. Another 2 weeks to determine what tests and under what parameters, then another couple of weeks for vetting the report.

Now if Columbia treated this as a design experiment for their undergrads, with the MEs building custom chambers, CS programing, it could take 6 months for crying out loud, but i would think the Wells and the NFL asked them to make it timely.