Draft Priorities and Round 1 and 2 Priorities

I think OL is a high-need area, but that gems at that position are easier to find in rounds 3-4-5 than true gems at several other spots on the field. When looking backwards at Koppen-Connelly-Wendell-Stork, we see quality players that didn't require spending a high draft pick. So I think BB does go OL, Big with picks between 90-120.

On a side note : Why do NFL teams seem to devalue centers ? I've always thought they are key personnel. Wasn't Stork - 4th rounder - winner of some "best center in college" award ? How can that guy (the key pick up in the SB winning Patriots' draft) last until the 4th round ? Seems like Koppen and (hopefully) Stork are guys you can really build around....

BradyFTW! said:

RB in round 2 wouldn't shock me if the value is there. There are some good RBs in this class, if someone like Duke Johnson is around at 64 I could definitely see the Pats taking him. They used a 2nd on Vereen just a few years ago, and I think Johnson is a better prospect than Vereen was.

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Well I would not be shocked either. Just surprised a bit.

Before FA I thought there was a 70-80% chance of them taking a RB in the first 2 rounds. Since that it has dropped to about 20-30% IMO. I would not at all be shocked but personally I think it is less likely than likely.

farn said:

I think OL is a high-need area, but that gems at that position are easier to find in rounds 3-4-5 than true gems at several other spots on the field. When looking backwards at Koppen-Connelly-Wendell-Stork, we see quality players that didn't require spending a high draft pick. So I think BB does go OL, Big with picks between 90-120.

On a side note : Why do NFL teams seem to devalue centers ? I've always thought they are key personnel. Wasn't Stork - 4th rounder - winner of some "best center in college" award ? How can that guy (the key pick up in the SB winning Patriots' draft) last until the 4th round ? Seems like Koppen and (hopefully) Stork are guys you can really build around....

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I agree that centers are undervalued. I believe that this also the case for RG's and perhaps for RT's. HOWEVER, I don't think that LG's are undervalued. When folks look, everyone wants Marpett. Well, there are many teams looking for LG's. There need to be a lot of Marpett's to make sense for the patriots to wait until the 2nd or 3rd or 4th for their OG.

Much depends on how high Belichick rates his in-house options at LG.

PatsWickedPissah said:

Not really.
Pats do BPA in areas of need. Often we have different perceptions of need than that damned BB.

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BPA is not usually true. Most teams rank guys into tiers and see everyone in that tier as close. This is what I do too. Very rarely will there be a true BPA on the board. Maybe during a draft it pops up 4-5 times where there is only 1 player left that is generally better than all the others. The rest of the time you are generally picking from a pool of players that are all so close it is hard to say who is the best. Also injuries muddy things up even more.

BobDigital said:

Well I would not be shocked either. Just surprised a bit.

Before FA I thought there was a 70-80% chance of them taking a RB in the first 2 rounds. Since that it has dropped to about 20-30% IMO. I would not at all be shocked but personally I think it is less likely than likely.

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Let's summarize your position. Pleas correct if I have it wrong.

1) Before free agency, you thought that there was a 70-80% of the patriots taking a RB in first 2 rounds.

2) The patriots did NOT sign Vereen or Ridley, and add low-risk Cadet for some competition.

3) NOW, with this new information, you don't think that we'll draft a RB?

What happened to change your mind?

mgteich said:

Let's summarize your position. Pleas correct if I have it wrong.

1) Before free agency, you thought that there was a 70-80% of the patriots taking a RB in first 2 rounds.

2) The patriots did NOT sign Vereen or Ridley, and add low-risk Cadet for some competition.

3) NOW, with this new information, you don't think that we'll draft a RB?

What happened to change your mind?

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Other needs were created at DT, CB and OL. Yes RB became a bigger need but I see the other positions are higher priority.

I think it is very likely one of the first 2 picks really has to be a CB that hopefully turns out to be a long term solution.

If that is the case which I think it is you are basically picking RB vs the rest of the remaining field of needs which is why the % is low. I think it is probably 3rd on the list of those other needs but I see DT as the most likely option.

Edit: Let me try to explain this better and a different way. My general feeling on taking RBs high is they tend to be "luxury picks". RBs IMO do not have a high correlation with winning or losing in themselves.

Yes a great RB can help you win more than an average DE but all things being equal great play from a lot of other positions tend to be more valuable. Some of these positions are need positions this year or could be next year so I think those could have higher priority.

BobDigital said:

Other needs were created at DT, CB and OL. Yes RB became a bigger need but I see the other positions are higher priority.

I think it is very likely one of the first 2 picks really has to be a CB that hopefully turns out to be a long term solution.

If that is the case which I think it is you are basically picking RB vs the rest of the remaining field of needs which is why the % is low. I think it is probably 3rd on the list of those other needs but I see DT as the most likely option.

Edit: Let me try to explain this better and a different way. My general feeling on taking RBs high is they tend to be "luxury picks". RBs IMO do not have a high correlation with winning or losing in themselves.

Yes a great RB can help you win more than an average DE but all things being equal great play from a lot of other positions tend to be more valuable. Some of these positions are need positions this year or could be next year so I think those could have higher priority.

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OK, thanks for the explanation. BTW, I don't see how any need was created in the OL that needs to be solved by a first or second round picks, although I am fine with such a pick.

Personally, I do NOT think of RB as a luxury pick for a team with a retread (Blount) and group of hopes at the position. HOWEVER, I think that the best value at RB is with one or two of our 3rd/4th round picks at 96, 97, 101 and 130.
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The more mocks I see, the LESS likely I see us drafting a corner at 32. Draftek has all the top 5 gone, with only Rollins, Carter and Williams left.

And we should NOT forget ILB. Hopefully, the team will have more medical information relating to Mayo in the next month. In any case, a prospect that might play a lot in 2015 and 2016 is certainly a possibility.

Linebacker is the biggest need imho. Hightower is coming off surgery and Mayo has become undependable. The drop off from these guys to someone like Skinner is too steep and needs to be addressed early.

Next is oline. Our division alone makes upgrading the interior a high priority. In years past, we seem to deal with this by taking multiple guys late. And this year doesn't seem to have deep elite talent so I expect it to be addressed in the 3rd-6th rounds.

Running back is filled w/ unknowns and this draft has a lot of options. If we wanted, we could completely blow up this position and make it become a strength next season. Blount is an inexpensive guy we allowed to leave last year, Gray was in the doghouse, and Bolden has never really been a focus of our offense.

Defensive tackle isn't really a need. We kind of just need one more. Could be early, could be another udfa like Siglia or vet like branch.

I do not believe cb is as big a need as everyone thinks. I do not see many clear choices that are actually better than Dennard, Ryan, and Butler. Trae Waynes is most likely out of reach, Kevin Johnson is good but not that much better than what we have, and Marcus Peters is probably off the board for his personality alone. I see Eric Rowe as a potential pick because we don't really have anyone with his overall skill set. Charles Gaines maybe as a mid pick.

doesntmatter1 said:

I do not believe cb is as big a need as everyone thinks. I do not see many clear choices that are actually better than Dennard, Ryan, and Butler. Trae Waynes is most likely out of reach, Kevin Johnson is good but not that much better than what we have, and Marcus Peters is probably off the board for his personality alone. I see Eric Rowe as a potential pick because we don't really have anyone with his overall skill set. Charles Gaines maybe as a mid pick.

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What about Byron Jones. He's a first rounder in our reach, right?

Ivan said:

Actually Byron Jones ran sub 4.4, he can fly and he is the best pure athlete in this draft. I like Tomlinson but the Patriots usually go for college tackles and convert them to guard and I would expect that to be the case this draft as well. As for trading the most likely trade scenario imo is for them to package 64 and 96 to move up for a second top 50 player they have targeted. Those two pick bring them up to around 50. They would still have 97, which can't be trade as well as 101, which is also going to be trade bait on day three.

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Do you have a link to Bryon Jones' 40-yard-dash time? He didn't run it at the combine, and the one I saw was 4.53 which he reportedly ran at UConn. He's rated as the 4th CB in the draft. The more I read about him, the more I think he'll be long gone by 32.

Please, no running back early!!!!! We have holes at CB, OL and DT. I'd rather draft on both sides of the line and hopefully upgrade at CB and get some depth at LB.

doesntmatter1 said:

Next is oline. Our division alone makes upgrading the interior a high priority. In years past, we seem to deal with this by taking multiple guys late. And this year doesn't seem to have deep elite talent so I expect it to be addressed in the 3rd-6th rounds.

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The Patriots sometimes pick early for offensive line when the need is there - Solder #1, Vollmer #2, Mankins #1, Gronk #2, etc. Belichick and Scarnecchia have also had success picking up free agents (Wendell and Connolly.) The good news during the winning years is that they stay and re-sign. Scarnecchia being involved this off-season as a scout is reassuring that Connolly will be replaced by a capable player.

goheels22002 said:

Do you have a link to Bryon Jones' 40-yard-dash time? He didn't run it at the combine, and the one I saw was 4.53 which he reportedly ran at UConn. He's rated as the 4th CB in the draft. The more I read about him, the more I think he'll be long gone by 32.

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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...byron-jones-wows-again-with-440-40-at-pro-day

Unofficially it was recorded in the 4.36 to 4.38 area reportedly. Jones is an athletic freak - he's in the JJ Watt level of freaky athleticism.

farn said:

I think OL is a high-need area, but that gems at that position are easier to find in rounds 3-4-5 than true gems at several other spots on the field. When looking backwards at Koppen-Connelly-Wendell-Stork, we see quality players that didn't require spending a high draft pick.

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True, but the counterpoint is that Mankins, Vollmer and Solder >> Koppen-Connelly-Wendell-Stork. And more importantly, the high OL draft picks have been reliable hits, while those quality day 3 players you listed were scattered among an awful lot of misses. IF they're looking for an immediate starter at LG, they'll probably have to look early.

ashley1992 said:

Please, no running back early!!!!! We have holes at CB, OL and DT. I'd rather draft on both sides of the line and hopefully upgrade at CB and get some depth at LB.

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Mayock agrees with you regarding DT. He has us moving for Malcom Brown.

BradyFTW! said:

RB in round 2 wouldn't shock me if the value is there. There are some good RBs in this class, if someone like Duke Johnson is around at 64 I could definitely see the Pats taking him. They used a 2nd on Vereen just a few years ago, and I think Johnson is a better prospect than Vereen was.

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Compare the numbers for Tyler Gaffney to David Johnson ... they are eerily similar. Gaffney's injury was a torn meniscus ... I can't believe he was put on IR for a torn meniscus! Gaffney is a very good receiver out of the backfield and is an accomplished blocker out of the position. Gaffney played three years of baseball and doesn't have the wear and tear of most RBs. Because of this I have removed the high priority of getting Johnson. If Johnson is still on the board at 97, then I would take him. Otherwise its OL, DL and DB depending upon who is available. I also think we will be swapping 3rd round picks with NYJ (tampering). We get 70 they get 96.

My idea has been cb at 32 and move up for Carl Davis around 50. 64 and 96. I could live with moving up for Malcolm Brown and PJ Williams at 64. Dennard can show him the error of his way.

I think we'll address ol and lb in free-agency. A guard such as; Connolly, Mathis or Wisniewski will be our starter. We draft a guard at 97 and develop him. I like Colin McCarthy as a depth option too.

Mark Morse said:

Compare the numbers for Tyler Gaffney to David Johnson ... they are eerily similar. Gaffney's injury was a torn meniscus ... I can't believe he was put on IR for a torn meniscus! Gaffney is a very good receiver out of the backfield and is an accomplished blocker out of the position. Gaffney played three years of baseball and doesn't have the wear and tear of most RBs. Because of this I have removed the high priority of getting Johnson.

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Gaffney and Johnson may have timed similarly, but IMO they play very differently. Johnson is a smoother athlete and an uncommonly polished receiver. He's 2" taller than Gaffney with longer arms, and could do some damage as an HB. Gaffney is an RB who can catch some out of the backfield.

Take a look at their final college seasons, comparing rushing and receiving:

Gaffney: 330 carries 5.2 avg , 15 receptions 5.7 avg
Johnson: 287 carries 5.4 AVG , 38 receptions 14.1 avg

Gaffney's a 6th-round pick who the Panthers chose to expose to waivers after a relatively minor camp injury. I dearly hope he turns out to be a steal, but I'm not counting on him.

Chiuba E. Obele said:

What about Byron Jones. He's a first rounder in our reach, right?

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Completely forgot about him. I watch a decent amount of college football but I haven't watched any UConn games last year. So I don't have a full picture on him besides a few clips, but he didn't seem like a first rounder before the combine. #1 rule is to be leery of combine warriors. Al Davis and Jets(stephen hill, gholson) should be a lesson for everyone.

doesntmatter1 said:

#1 rule is to be leery of combine warriors. Al Davis and Jets(stephen hill, gholson) should be a lesson for everyone.

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Actually, Vernon Gholston was a First-Team All-American and Hendricks Award finalist who broke Mike Vrabel's all-time sack record at Ohio State. Maybe he should be a lesson for everyone to ignore on-field production?

Some measurables do matter. The Patriots have often done well drafting "workout warriors" -- Jaime Collins, Chandler Jones, Sebastian Vollmer, etc. Even Edelman, who had never played WR but posted awesome shuttle and cone times (3.92/6.62).

But I agree 100% on the Stephen Hill example. Over-drafting unskilled WRs based on 40 times is a classic mistake.