"More picks than we have roster spots for"

unoriginal said:

Currently the Pats have 75 people under contract, leaving 15 spots open for training camp rosters.
At this precise time last year the Pats had 63 people under contract.

By my count, there were 15 UDFAs on the camp roster at any one time last year, two of whom (Butler, Skinner) earned more playing time than 6-7th round picks Jon Halapio, Jemea Thomas, and Jeremy Gallon.

This roster is much more competitive than our SB-winning roster was this time last year. The Pats could, if they wished, forgo the draft entirely and fill out their camp roster with their normal UDFA class, and still wind up with one or two new meaningful contributors.

So I don't think the idea the Pats have more picks than roster spots to be crazy town.

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This is probably true in general. I don't agree with every single point but the broad strokes I tend to agree.

mgteich said:

Blount, draftee, Cadet, Bolden, (5th rb)

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Oh great...the roster I used for reference hadn't even added Cadet yet! I've learned my lesson, no more 3-minute roster building.

But my main point: there are a ton of roster spots that could be upgraded by a talented rookie. If by some amazing quirk of chance 8 or 9 rookies all looked terrific, then there would be room for for all 8 or 9. (The fact that all 8 or nine won't look terrific doesn't change that.)

If picking only 6 times could seriously change those 6 picks -- say, moving the Pats up into the sure-thing half of round 1, or turning their late 3rds into 2nds -- then I'd be all for condensing value. But I don't think that's the case, so IMO the more picks the merrier. I particularly like using late picks on "shoot the moon" prospects -- longshots with high ceilings. Matt Cassel was a great example, and Edelman too. OK, and Kade Weston, but you can't win 'em all.

patchick said:

IMO the more picks the merrier. I particularly like using late picks on "shoot the moon" prospects -- longshots with high ceilings. Matt Cassel was a great example, and Edelman too. OK, and Kade Weston, but you can't win 'em all.

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But generally you need to keep those shoot-the-moon players on the roster for three years or so before you start seeing dividends. I don't think you get anywhere by churning over the Zach Moores and David Givens of the world every year.

To be fair, Edelman clearly carved out a place on the team from year one.

But to be even fairer, isn't the second round the Pats designated shoot-the-moon round anyway?

I think there's a tendency to overrate the value of a Patriots pick here. The evidence suggests that after the first two rounds, the Front office are expecting backups, role players and special teamers except at a few positions like interior OL. So whilst someone like Chris Jones might be considered replaceable, it doesn't necessarily follow that BB thinks that there's someone in the draft that could replace him. Last year, most thought Hooman was replaceable. Same with Tavon Wilson. And yet both are still on the roster.

To us these players might look replaceable but that's only if a draft pick or FA grades higher and in theory, that could apply to everyone on the roster.

patchick said:

I keep reading this refrain, so I thought it might be useful to go over the roster as it now stands. Below is a plausible stab at the current 53 (+Blount). I've bolded the names of players who, IMO, would not be big surprises to be beaten out by a promising rookie. You may not agree with every bolded name, but the key point:

There are 20 of them.

8 on offense, 9 on defense, 1 on special teams. My guess is every roster in the league has ample room for rookies.

OFFENSE
Bryan Stork
Josh Kline
Chris Barker
Ryan Wendell
Cameron Fleming
Jordan Devey
Marcus Cannon
Nate Solder
Sebastian Vollmer
Danny Amendola
Aaron Dobson
Julian Edelman
Bryan Tyms
Brandon LaFell
Tyler Gaffney
Jonas Gray
James White
Brandon Bolden
(LaGarrette Blount--suspended game 1)
Rob Gronkowski
Scott Chandler
Tim Wright
Tom Brady
Jimmy Garoppolo

DEFENSE
Antonio Johnson
Chis Jones
Sealver Siliga
Joe Vellano
Alan Branch
Dominique Easley
Chandler Jones
Jabaal Sheard
Rob Ninkovich
Michael Buchanan
Donta Hightower
Jamie Collins
Jerod Mayo
Chris White
Darius Fleming
James Morris
Kyle Arrington
Logan Ryan
Alfonzo Dennard
Malcolm Butler
Bradley Fletcher
Robert McClain
Devin McCourty
Duron Harmon
Patrick Chung
Nate Ebner

SPECIAL TEAMS
Ryan Allen
Stephen Gostkowski
Danny Aiken
Matthew Slater

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Good luck. I've been explaining this for Years, but folks just don't want to believe me.

I suspect that it's just an excuse to Trade Up, frankly!!

Luxusdk said:

Is Danny Aiken even on the roster still?

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patchick said:

Definitely one player who should be looking over his shoulder.

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New Long Snapping Technique, eh? Always thinking Outside The Box, you are.

mgteich said:

Blount, draftee, Cadet, Bolden, (5th rb)

Why would with Gray or White be safe? If we have a 5th RB on the 53, it COULD be Gray or White or Gaffney or Lewis or a 2nd draftee or an UDFA.

Personally, I think the 2nd safe RB is Bolden. He is our special teamer who was extended. He has backed up both RB positions.

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I meant to include Bolden as safe for his special teams but in all likelihood White is safe but if he simply isn't getting it Gray will make the roster especially with the game one smoking a blount suspension.

Off The Grid said:

I suspect that it's just an excuse to Trade Up, frankly!!

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Everybody loves dreaming about trades up. Who can blame 'em? It's been 14 years since the Pats' own pick was among the top 22 in each round!

But this year, for once, I'm not getting particularly starry-eyed. Looking at first-round mocks, I don't find myself thinking "Man, if we could just get into position to get HIM! Imagine!" Not a lot of genuine dominant talents, IMO.

A non-issue.....there are so many position the pats stand to improve

I have no problem casting aside someone who may or may not stick with another team

If the deflategate decision comes down before the draft, I expect Roger Goodell to solve
our dilemma of having too many draft picks. Even if no credible evidence is found, Roger
is coming down hard on the Patriots. I expect the loss of multiple high picks and heavy
fines. It also wouldn't surprise me if Belichick and Brady receive suspensions. Roger will
be perceived as a hero by the other 31 teams if he can stop their playoff run.

patchick said:

Oh great...the roster I used for reference hadn't even added Cadet yet!

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Don't sweat it; I'm not placing Cadet in any of my 53-man predictions, ever.

Jimke said:

If the deflategate decision comes down before the draft, I expect Roger Goodell to solve
our dilemma of having too many draft picks. Even if no credible evidence is found, Roger
is coming down hard on the Patriots. I expect the loss of multiple high picks and heavy
fines. It also wouldn't surprise me if Belichick and Brady receive suspensions. Roger will
be perceived as a hero by the other 31 teams if he can stop their playoff run.

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25K fine for not having the balls at 12.5-13.5. That's it. That's what's in the rule book. There is no evidence of any funny business that can be proven.

patchick said:

Everybody loves dreaming about trades up. Who can blame 'em? It's been 14 years since the Pats' own pick was among the top 22 in each round!

But this year, for once, I'm not getting particularly starry-eyed. Looking at first-round mocks, I don't find myself thinking "Man, if we could just get into position to get HIM! Imagine!" Not a lot of genuine dominant talents, IMO.

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And then there is Gurley!

patchick said:

Oh great...the roster I used for reference hadn't even added Cadet yet! I've learned my lesson, no more 3-minute roster building.

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Cadet and White are candidates for the 3rd down RB position. I could see them competing for one position or two, perhaps with a draftee.

I see little in the discussion of Cadet's signing that suggests that he is a lock for a position. Belichick certainly hasn't invested much.

DO WE NEED A FIFTH?
RB1/2 - Blount, Gray/Gaffney/draftee
RB 3rd down - Cadet/White
ST - Bolden

I'm not even sure that we carry more than 4 running backs. we COULD carry a 5th RB (my preference is to do so), or not. Also, we COULD have a 5th WR (I think that you do), or not.

OFFENSE (24)
QB (2)
WR (4)
RB (4)
FB (1)
TE (3)
OL (9)
ST (1) Slater

IMO the Pats have 6 picks not 9. I barely count picks after round 5 and rarely in round 5 unless they are a STs ace or certain other specialist. If they hit then great but I never expect them to hit.

If you assume this year will be like most years where only guys picked in the first 4 rounds have a real shot of making the team in a meaningful way then we certainly have enough needs for them

OL - 2
RB - 1
WR - 1
DL - 1-2
LB - 1
DB - 1-2

I see those spots as wide open and we have more than 6 of them.

BobDigital said:

IMO the Pats have 6 picks not 9. I barely count picks after round 5 and rarely in round 5 unless they are a STs ace or certain other specialist. If they hit then great but I never expect them to hit.

If you assume this year will be like most years where only guys picked in the first 4 rounds have a real shot of making the team in a meaningful way then we certainly have enough needs for them

OL - 2
RB - 1
WR - 1
DL - 1-2
LB - 1
DB - 1-2

I see those spots as wide open and we have more than 6 of them.

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I expect the Patriots to use one of their 7th round picks on a long snapper.

Jimke said:

I expect the Patriots to use one of their 7th round picks on a long snapper.

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Since you have only one need at RB, who are the other 3-4 running backs who are locks to make the team?

patchick said:

I keep reading this refrain, so I thought it might be useful to go over the roster as it now stands. Below is a plausible stab at the current 53 (+Blount). I've bolded the names of players who, IMO, would not be big surprises to be beaten out by a promising rookie. You may not agree with every bolded name, but the key point:

There are 20 of them.

8 on offense, 9 on defense, 1 on special teams. My guess is every roster in the league has ample room for rookies.

OFFENSE
Bryan Stork
Josh Kline
Chris Barker
Ryan Wendell
Cameron Fleming
Jordan Devey
Marcus Cannon
Nate Solder
Sebastian Vollmer
Danny Amendola
Aaron Dobson
Julian Edelman
Bryan Tyms
Brandon LaFell
Tyler Gaffney
Jonas Gray
James White
Brandon Bolden
(LaGarrette Blount--suspended game 1)
Rob Gronkowski
Scott Chandler
Tim Wright
Tom Brady
Jimmy Garoppolo

DEFENSE
Antonio Johnson
Chis Jones
Sealver Siliga
Joe Vellano
Alan Branch
Dominique Easley
Chandler Jones
Jabaal Sheard
Rob Ninkovich
Michael Buchanan
Donta Hightower
Jamie Collins
Jerod Mayo
Chris White
Darius Fleming
James Morris
Kyle Arrington
Logan Ryan
Alfonzo Dennard
Malcolm Butler
Bradley Fletcher
Robert McClain
Devin McCourty
Duron Harmon
Patrick Chung
Nate Ebner

SPECIAL TEAMS
Ryan Allen
Stephen Gostkowski
Danny Aiken
Matthew Slater

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I find it hard to believe that the Pats will draft enough RBs to replace Gaffney/White/Cadet/Gray and Bolden (who just got an extension.

I'll be shocked if Chris Jones or Aaron Dobson are cut...or Buchanon, for that matter, who was improving before he got hurt. And Dennard, McClain and Fletcher won't all be cut, and you forgot Dax Swanson.Could those guys be upgraded? Sure...but you're talking 4 DB slots and six (counting Develin) RB slots. Any one of the 10 you mentioned might not make the team, sure, but HOW MANY of them are likely to be gone?

Of course there are places to upgrade, but all that was said (and I was one of the ones who said it) is that this roster is very deep and very young. Rookies get the edge over vets by showing promise and coming cheaper, but a lot of the guys you have them cutting are on rookie deals and are showing promise. I find it hard to believe that they'll upgrade a Dobson or even a Tyms unless they use an early pick on a WR 9and you forgot Boyce. Similarly, they might grab 1 RB who pushes onto the squad. And they're certainly going to try to upgrade their #4 LB, but not 4, 5, and 6.

BobDigital said:

IMO the Pats have 6 picks not 9. I barely count picks after round 5...

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patchick said:

Yeah, Chris Jones was probably a mistake to include.

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It's possible, but you'll be hard pressed to find a guy with more experience at a lower cost for 2015. He could, however, be trade bait in 2016 when his salary goes up to ~$1.5M.

FWIW, I view him the same way I view Mike Wright: a great guy to have, and one you want to keep, but probably not one you want playing 80% of the snaps.