Draft insight from Bill Polian

Ok, Ok, I hate him, too. So save the posts about what a despicable POS he is. I get it. But, he is also one of the most knowledgeable successful GM in the history of the league so when he does a segment on the draft on his Sirius XM NFL radio show I listen.

And, please, don't merge this into the draft forum. I have a personal policy of not looking there before the draft for the reasons outline by Polian below:

According to Polian:

1) Forget all the mock drafts and TV experts. He said that after doing it for 25 years, he could NEVER predict who would be available at his draft position. He said the best he could ever do was a list of 4 or 5 players that would be available and a couple of them probably would be. You never trade down to get a specific player because he won't be there. And any draft expert that pretends to know otherwise is just blowing hot (h)air. He says the media experts can figure out pretty much the players viewed as having first round grades and that's it. Predictions of players in specific rounds and specific teams after that is useless. They have no idea.

2) Averaged over the last drafts, according to Polian's data, there has been an average of 19 players with a first round grade each year. This means that playoff teams are usually out of the running for players with first round grades, except when maybe one of them falls down to 25 or so. But, only one. And nobody drafting after 25 gets a first round grade. This is why, Polian continued, the Patriots trade back into the second round frequently. They are getting a player with the same grade they could get at the end of the first round, they are paying less money, and they are stockpiling extra picks.

Of course we all knew this (it's why I don't go into the draft forum), but it was interesting hearing a top GM say the draft prognosticators have no clue. He said that draft day for a GM is all about being quick and nimble to deal with the totally unexpected surprises coming at you. GMs don't go into the draft with any idea which players they will end up getting.

With that amount of uncertainty, I find it interesting that - supposedly - BB's draft board is quite small in comparison with other teams'... BB the GM gets all kinds of grief here sometimes, but I for one am more than glad he's pulling the trigger for the team I follow.

farn said:

With that amount of uncertainty, I find it interesting that - supposedly - BB's draft board is quite small in comparison with other teams'... BB the GM gets all kinds of grief here sometimes, but I for one am more than glad he's pulling the trigger for the team I follow.

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Jimmie Johnson's advice—which seems relevant here—is not that you should only have 25 players on your board, but that you should focus on about 25 or so players, across all rounds of the draft, and then manipulate your draft picks to land as many of them as feasible.

For example, back in 2009, Edelman was almost certainly one of their 7th round targets, just as Cassel was in 2005.

I think the good draft sites get about 80% of the top 100 but after that it's a crap shoot. As far as players to take the mocks are borderline useless. You get a sense of clusters of players but not much more than that. And Polian is right about trading down, you do it if there is a cluster of players to pick later but not for target players.

Nice one ctp. Hadn't thought of it quite like that. JJ definitely knew what he was doing. It isn't surprising he and BB get along.

ctpatsfan77 said:

Jimmie Johnson's advice—which seems relevant here—is not that you should only have 25 players on your board, but that you should focus on about 25 or so players, across all rounds of the draft, and then manipulate your draft picks to land as many of them as feasible.

For example, back in 2009, Edelman was almost certainly one of their 7th round targets, just as Cassel was in 2005.

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A philosophy I love. Target players and move around in getting them. 25 seems a little low but 40-50 makes sense to me. The deeper you go on the draft the more likely those you want will be gone so the target list would likely get longer as you go.

I suspect that what makes Belichick's draft board different from the draft boards of bad teams is:


You not only can have a successful draft pick who never starts a game, you MUST have draft picks who are successful contributors for four years without ever starting a game. The cap demands that you draft those players in addition to the "home run picks" like Josh Gordon, Justin Gilbert, and Johnny Rehab.

I lost interest at the words "Bill Polian".

Polian can eat a bag of dix.

He's right, but man is he such an insufferable twat.

hwc said:

You never trade down to get a specific player because he won't be there. And any draft expert that pretends to know otherwise is just blowing hot (h)air.
...
Of course we all knew this ...

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I've highlighted a bit that we fans as a group very clearly do NOT know! If we did, we wouldn't have the annual fury over "reaching" for a player like, say, Duron Harmon at the end of the 3rd when we KNOW from reading web mocks that he would still have been available exactly 47 picks later.

patchick said:

I've highlighted a bit that we fans as a group very clearly do NOT know! If we did, we wouldn't have the annual fury over "reaching" for a player like, say, Duron Harmon at the end of the 3rd when we KNOW from reading web mocks that he would still have been available exactly 47 picks later.

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I can't believe I read this thread already!! I know for a fact I could have waited until the end of the week and it would still be on the front page! Complete waste of time! I could have read the trade down thread tonight and still read this thread days from now!

I hate Bill naPolian. He is a despicable POS.

I also don't care for the OP's disrespect of our Draft Forum.
Come on over some time, you might learn something (not from me, but from many of the knowledgeable
posters there). I'd rather read what they think than read a syllable from that drunk old scumbag.

(And BTW, Duhwrong Harmon at 91 & Tavon Feckin Wilson at 48 were indeed terrible, terrible picks.)

captain stone said:

also don't care for the OP's disrespect of our Draft Forum.
Come on over some time, you might learn something (not from me, but from many of the knowledgeable
posters there). I'd rather read what they think than read a syllable from that drunk old scumbag.

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I see no point in false expectations that I could have the first clue who Bill Belichick should or could draft in April. I get more of that than I can stand when Andy Hart is threatening to slash his wrists on the PFW draft day podcasts because Belichick is an idiot who didn't draft Hart's blinkie.

It's not even an entertaining game. It's worse than fantasy football. Good lord, we are talking about Pop Warner ball players. Call me when any of them do something in National Football League.

Need I remind people of the draft pundits creaming themselves over Johnny Rehab this time last year? Any fool could see it was insanity to waste a first round pick on a loser who showed up ****-faced drunk to Peyton Manning's youth football camp.

I for one enjoy watching the Grand Mal seizures of the draftniks as binkies go unclaimed round after round.
Does this make me a bad person?

Just one sites opinion but they have the Colt's at #17 in drafting over the last 10 years ...
Of which I believe 7 were Bill Polian being the President who wanted to build through the draft ...
Belichick kicks his ass in drafting ...........especially since Pioli left.

http://www.sportingnews.com/list/46...seahawks-giants-jets-49ers-colts/slide/312674

While everything polian said makes sense, I still can not figure out why bb took Easley last year?

Bill Polian: if at first you can't beat them, join the rules committee.

Reasonable article and inline with my general draft thinking. I almost look forward to seeing those Patriots second rounders decimate the competition.

hwc said:

I see no point in false expections that I could have the first clue who Bill Belichick should or could draft in April. I get more of that than I can stand when Andy Hart is threatening to slash his wrists on the PFW draft day podcasts because Belichick is an idiot who didn't draft Hart's blinkie.

It's not even an entertaining game. It's worse than fantasy football. Good lord, we are talking about Pop Warner ball players. Call me when any of them do something in National Football League.

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To each his own. I love the roster-building side of the game, and trying to figure out the ingredients of NFL success. Studying draft prospects also adds an extra layer of interest to watching player development leaguewide. And the offseason must be excruciatingly long to folks who don't care about the draft!

I think Belichick drafted Easley because the only way he can get a first round talent is to select a player with warts that lowers his draft prospects. In this case, drafting a injury riddled player who would be red-shirted his "freshman year".

hwc said:

I think Belichick drafted Easley because the only way he can get a first round talent is to select a player with warts that lowers his draft prospects. In this case, drafting a injury riddled player who would be red-shirted his "freshman year".

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This.

My big issue with Easley was that drafting him meant little to no help from the 1st round pick last year. That doesn't (or at least shouldn't) apply to him this year, so he's almost a bonus.