It Will Be Difficult Not To Draft A Starting LG With Our First Draft Pick

There are no impact CBs in this draft worthy of a 1st round pick. Especially since a good one will take 2-3 years to really become a #1 assuming the pick even hits. A pick on either the line can contribute day 1.

VectorPrime said:

There are no impact CBs in this draft worthy of a 1st round pick. Especially since a good one will take 2-3 years to really become a #1 assuming the pick even hits.

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I don't think anyone knows that. And the very few people in a position to actually know that (as opposed to talking heads on TV) wouldn't be saying anything.

upstater1 said:

Absolutely right. If you're dying to take a G, it's not going to be at 32 of the first round.

AJ Cann and Laken Tomlinson are early to mid second rounders. Trey Jackson is 2nd/3rd. Marpet, Kouandijo and John Miller are third rounders.

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The trick is that Tomlinson, Jackson and Kouandijo look like unlikely left guards. They're big, lumbering road graders -- Jackson and Kouandijo in particular recorded two of the slowest short shuttle times I've ever seen at any position. Meanwhile Miller is decidedly undersized, especially for a team that has been drafting bigger on the OL lately. And Cann is projected as a late 1st/early 2nd pick, which leaves him out of your draft-a-guard-later plan.

So to my eyes, that makes the plan "DIII wonder Ali Marpet or bust."

Here's to a vet signing, eh?

patchick said:

The trick is that Tomlinson, Jackson and Kouandijo look like unlikely left guards. They're big, lumbering road graders -- Jackson and Kouandijo in particular recorded two of the slowest short shuttle times I've ever seen at any position. Meanwhile Miller is decidedly undersized, especially for a team that has been drafting bigger on the OL lately. And Cann is projected as a late 1st/early 2nd pick, which leaves him out of your draft-a-guard-later plan.

So to my eyes, that makes the plan "DIII wonder Ali Marpet or bust."

Here's to a vet signing, eh?

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Good point but can't we move Wendell to LG?

VectorPrime said:

There are no impact CBs in this draft worthy of a 1st round pick. Especially since a good one will take 2-3 years to really become a #1 assuming the pick even hits. A pick on either the line can contribute day 1.

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Out of curiosity, did you think Stork would come in and have an immediate impact?

mgteich said:

Obviously, things could change before the draft. We could sign Connolly or Wisniewski or Mathis. My point is that if none of these are signed that belichick would find it difficult to pass on one the several players who would be worth the 32nd pick and could start at LG. I understand that someone drafted in the 4th could start. However, last year we had two other starting centers already on the team. For now, our LG's are Kline and Devey.

Also, I think that we forget that many of the players that folks have mentioned as OL picks at 32 are OT's. Given that Solder is not signed for 2016 and Vollmer has an injury history, it is not at all unreasonable to sign a LT, who might start his NFL career at LG. Personally, IF THE DRAFT WERE HELD TODAY, I think that Fisher would be given high consideration. Obviously, that depends on who else is available.
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AS AN ASIDE

The day of the draft would be "too early" to think that Belichick would draft a particular position. So, I don't think that it is too early to speculate. We all understand that Belichick could sign a LG before the draft, which may or may not affect the decision when the pick comes.

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I agree with you that tackle could very well be a possibility, much more than people think.

As you said, that is dependent on what BB envisions the future to be with both Solder/Vollmer. We also don't know what they think of Fleming/Cannon, although I tend to agree with you that Cannon should stick on the right side no matter what.

One more variable would be if BB thinks that the "right guy" may be there, and tackle isn't the easiest position to fill, particularly if you're speaking to quality.

The thought that a future tackle could play this year at LG is intriguing. We'll have to see what happens between now and the draft.

ausbacker said:

Out of curiosity, did you think Stork would come in and have an immediate impact?

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Yes because Wendell really struggled in 2013.

MG, thanks for another one of those circular arguments with no possible "unreasonable answer". EVERYTHING is possible when you are drafting 32nd and have one of the 5 best rosters in the league. Let me try and look at it from one point of view.

1. There are a couple of truisms that we will have to deal with (like always).

a., The guys we will have available to us will likely have a similar draft grade as those falling in the 20-44 range. In other words no "blue chippers" and most will have more risks than those taken in the first 20

b. There will be 2 or 3 guys that the Pats will value more than the 32nd pick that they hope will fall to them for some reason. Unfortunately NONE of us know who those players are.

c. Beyond that the Pats will have 4-5 guys that they'd be OK taking at 32nd, but will listen to a trade possibility if they think they can get one of them 10-14 picks lower.

d. If that "special guy" is within 4 picks of them, they won't have a problem taking a shot at moving up. The problem is I'm beginning to think that its getting harder and harder for the Pats to get trading partners in either direction. Who wants to be the latest guy BB got the better of. Just a feeling.

3. As far as positions go, I think the Pats value DT's first because top end guys are just so rare. After that I think it would go TE's, DE's,CB's LB's OT's and OG's. Again I think they are in this order specifically based on how hard it is to find a top end guy. Guys who are decent or good can be found all over the draft as we see so often.

4 So while we would all agree that DT might be a higher priority than most it will be almost impossible for a "high end" DT, DE, CB to be around at 32. Certainly not unless Roger gives us the Jets #6. and none of us are holding our breath on that one..

5. Same goes for CB. Marcus Peters just might be the only top 15 talent who has even the slightest chance to fall to 32....and there's a decent possibility that he won't even be on the Pats board. But even if he his, and even if he's picked, looking back at the top CB's who have recently come into the league, how many have ended up being impact players their rookie year. IIRC, didn't Patrick Peterson have a very up and down first year.

6. OTOH, if you wanted to pick a position where a Pats pick is most likely to wind up starting as a rookie, it is definitely IOL.

7. It occurs to me that whenever we start to turnover a position group it takes a least a couple of years to get it done. I think we are still in the midst of turning over the "big bodies" on both sides of the ball

8. So in the end what do we actually know. Pretty much nothing. Little is going to surprise us other than perhaps picking a WR in the first round. . What else do we know? Few people are going to be happy with our first pick, and everyone else will second guess the rest of them.

We know the guy will have as many questions as hype. We know he might end up a first day starter, or barely see the field for most of his first year. And we also know that one of the least expected picks will end up being a top 3 selections this year. Finally despite the low picks, the Pats likely to end up with 4-5 players who will give them at least 4 year contributions, than most teams

9. There was a recent post which pointed out that despite having the worst selection spot of any team over a 10 year period, the Pats wound up with the 3rd best draft record. It was interesting that while the Pats had by far the best record, the other 2 teams in the top 3 were also 2 of the top teams of the last 5 years (Packers and Seahawks)

So maybe those top 10 picks are over rated. But why, come every April, do I want one so badly.

I think choosing an OL with the first pick would be superb. If Brady is kept clean, he can inflict anything on anybody with anybody.

It doesn't make for great television since the OL will never be scoring touchdowns or making picks, but it's probably the path to winning with the Pat's 37 year old GOAT,

patchick said:

The trick is that Tomlinson, Jackson and Kouandijo look like unlikely left guards. They're big, lumbering road graders -- Jackson and Kouandijo in particular recorded two of the slowest short shuttle times I've ever seen at any position. Meanwhile Miller is decidedly undersized, especially for a team that has been drafting bigger on the OL lately. And Cann is projected as a late 1st/early 2nd pick, which leaves him out of your draft-a-guard-later plan.

So to my eyes, that makes the plan "DIII wonder Ali Marpet or bust."

Here's to a vet signing, eh?

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using a 2nd rounder on a third division player sounds so crazy...
that belichick will probably do it!

patchick said:

The trick is that Tomlinson, Jackson and Kouandijo look like unlikely left guards. They're big, lumbering road graders -- Jackson and Kouandijo in particular recorded two of the slowest short shuttle times I've ever seen at any position. Meanwhile Miller is decidedly undersized, especially for a team that has been drafting bigger on the OL lately. And Cann is projected as a late 1st/early 2nd pick, which leaves him out of your draft-a-guard-later plan.

So to my eyes, that makes the plan "DIII wonder Ali Marpet or bust."

Here's to a vet signing, eh?

Click to expand...

There are a few OT's in the draft that project to OLG. I won't be surprised is the Patriots draft one during the fist 3 rounds. As we all know, Mankins was an OT in college.

If they don't trade out of #32, I can see them taking the BAP at either ILB,G, OT, CB , DT, DE or OLB. Lot's of options depending on who falls to them. The mocks and rankings have still not settled down much for late 1st round picks.

VectorPrime said:

Yes because Wendell really struggled in 2013.

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Apples and Oranges IMO.

The poor performance of Wendell in 2013 has nothing to do with the outstanding performance of Stork.

With the dismal performance of Wendell was created a NEED. But the merit of this need has been met is all of Stork and his talent.

Claiming that a player will not meet team needs immediately is a bit of presumption.

Gronkowski123 said:

using a 2nd rounder on a third division player sounds so crazy...
that belichick will probably do it!

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We hear all about how great this draft is for LG's, until we actually look. Marpett is very, very unlikely to be there at 97. So, yes, when we sit at 64, and there are very few OG's avai;able that we think can start at LG, Belichick might very well use our 2nd.

Unless there is a signing or a trade, I expect Belichick to draft a guard or tackle before the end of the 2nd round.