Rookies Making The Team As Upgrades On Defense

Belichick looks for future starters in the draft. He also takes into account how much an upgrade theses players are over what he has.

It seems that a rookie could make it anywhere. However, some positions seem much more likely than others.

DEFENSE (25)
DE (5) - Ninkovich, Jones, Sheard, Moore, Buchanan
DT (4) - Branch, Siliga, Jones, Easley
LB (5) - Mayo, Hightower, Collins, White, Freeny (or Skinner, Fleming, Gordon, Morris)
CB (4) - Butler, Fletcher, Dennard, Ryan
nickel (2) - Arrington, McClain
S (5) - McCourty, Chung, Harmon, Wilson, Ebner

Obviously, the position numbers could be slightly different. I am just pointing out the incumbents that rookies need to ebat out for roster spots.

mgteich said:

Belichick looks for future starters in the draft. He also takes into account how much an upgrade theses players are over what he has.

It seems that a rookie could make it anywhere. However, some positions seem much more likely than others.

DEFENSE (25)
DE (5) - Ninkovich, Jones, Sheard, Moore, Buchanan
DT (4) - Branch, Siliga, Jones, Easley
LB (5) - Mayo, Hightower, Collins, White, Freeny (or Skinner, Fleming, Gordon, Morris)
CB (4) - Butler, Fletcher, Dennard, Ryan
nickel (2) - Arrington, McClain
S (5) - McCourty, Chung, Harmon, Wilson, Ebner

Obviously, the position numbers could be slightly different. I am just pointing out the incumbents that rookies need to ebat out for roster spots.

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Interesting. By that breakdown LB pops out as a place where a rookie would have a great shoot at both making the team and seeing real playing time.

Ivan said:

Interesting. By that breakdown LB pops out as a place where a rookie would have a great shoot at both making the team and seeing real playing time.

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I agree. We have 3 top linebackers, 2 of which are injured, with their game status timetable questionable. We carry anywhere between 5-7 linebackers, including special teamers.

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On offense, I see the likelihood of two rookie OL's making the team plus a RB. On defense, LB stands out as a possibility, along with a CB.

OG
OG
RB
LB
DT
CB

If the draft falls to match this, then we would use all our six premium picks on these six positions. I define a premium pick as one in the first four rounds, since, barring injury, someone chosen in those rounds has always made the roster under Belichick.

I know it'd make for nervous times, but there have been starting CBs on this team since BB has been in town. Wouldn't be surprised to see some of that...

mgteich said:

I agree. We have 3 top linebackers, 2 of which are injured, with their game status timetable questionable. We carry anywhere between 5-7 linebackers, including special teamers.

==========
On offense, I see the likelihood of two rookie OL's making the team plus a RB. On defense, LB stands out as a possibility, along with a CB.

OG
OG
RB
LB
DT
CB

If the draft falls to match this, then we would use all our six premium picks on these six positions. I define a premium pick as one in the first four rounds, since, barring injury, someone chosen in those rounds has always made the roster under Belichick.

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Don't you have to find a solid vet to fill in while (hopefully we do not have to wait) Mayo and Hightower are out? Kind of scary to jam a rookie into the first part of the season and hope for the best. Wilhoite is an RFA in San Fran. His numbers were a little better than McClain. He is decent in coverage. He can play ST. When Mayo and Hightower are ready he is more than a serviceable back up. I am not saying don't Draft a LB. Our current roster has not one backup LBs that I can see holding the fort.

I would rather have them burn a top pick on a CB or an O Lineman so they can finally replace Connolly who ranked again as one of the worst Guards in the NFL. Great Teammate and overachiever but the Pats are not knocking the doors down to get him. The higher priority is CB and at least one good one should fall down to them at #32.
I say :
CB
G
DT
LB
WR

Now if they get chance to pick up Evan Mathis or sign Wisniewski a Guard is less need.
As far as CB s, if you read on the Rams they are not really happy with the gambling Janoris Jenkins abd have talent behind him. He is young and talented and has kept out of trouble.

I would also target CB Pierre Desir of the Browns who is 6'2" and made four starts at the end on 2014 and was very solid. With Haden and newly signed Tramon Williams set at CB plus first rounder Justin Gilbert, Desir will sit.

You get one or two of these LB moves up.If not perhaps a mid pick like Max Valles (who the Pats visited on his Pro Day) or Ben Heeney of the 4.56 40 and 6.68 3 cone.
DW Toys

DW Toys said:

Don't you have to find a solid vet to fill in while (hopefully we do not have to wait) Mayo and Hightower are out? Kind of scary to jam a rookie into the first part of the season and hope for the best.

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Yes it would be good to pick up a vet LG and a vet LB.
If both Mayo and Hightower are out, I would expect Ninkovich to be playing linebacker opposite Collins, with Sheard and Jones at DE. When we are in the base, we would have same choices as last year: Skinner and Fleming. So, no, I would not expect a LB to be jammed in and hope for the best.

mgteich said:

Yes it would be good to pick up a vet LG and a vet LB.
If both Mayo and Hightower are out, I would expect Ninkovich to be playing linebacker opposite Collins, with Sheard and Jones at DE. When we are in the base, we would have same choices as last year: Skinner and Fleming. So, no, I would not expect a LB to be jammed in and hope for the best.

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I think we will see Belichick address both positions this summer.

Hightower and Mayo will be ready for week one.

Jerod Mayo had surgery this morning to repair his patella tendon. Hoping for a 6-month recovery period. - October 14.

Hightower’s recovery is expected to span six or seven months, according to a source. The Patriots officially open training camp around July 29, and a six-month window would have Hightower ready Aug. 10. The seven-month window would put him in line to be ready for the regular-season opener around Sept. 10.

patsbrasilpatriotas said:

Hightower and Mayo will be ready for week one.

Jerod Mayo had surgery this morning to repair his patella tendon. Hoping for a 6-month recovery period. - October 14.

Hightower’s recovery is expected to span six or seven months, according to a source. The Patriots officially open training camp around July 29, and a six-month window would have Hightower ready Aug. 10. The seven-month window would put him in line to be ready for the regular-season opener around Sept. 10.

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Being ready is NOT the same as being game ready and being able to take the normal amount of reps expected from these players. Remember Gronkowski and Browner last year. There was a several week difference between when they were ready and when they could participate at near their normal roles.

Mayo was injured in October 2014. An injury that takes six months to be recovered and fit for the game. If in 11 months, almost twice as long, he is not ready to play something very wrong happened to him.

mgteich said:

Being ready is NOT the same as being game ready and being able to take the normal amount of reps expected from these players. Remember Gronkowski and Browner last year. There was a several week difference between when they were ready and when they could participate at near their normal roles.

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A lot of people tend to over think the roster when it comes to spots open and depth. We tend to overrate our depth players as most fans do. The fact is usually you have about 30 good players on your team and 20 Jags you are looking to upgrade.

Here are the spots locked down IMO

DE - Jones Nink Shread
DT - Easley Branch Siliga Jones
LB - Mayo Hightower Collins
CB - Arrington Bulter* (will talk about CBs later)
S - McCourty Chung Ebner

Everyone else is fighting for a spot.

Ebner makes it on his STs value.

Arrington in the slot is very good and if he is cut it is for financial reasons not play. People bring up the SB but he was forced to play on the outside and that is not his game.

Butler is kind of a default lock. I think you need to see what he can do year 2 before you make a call on him no matter how good or bad he does this off season play wise.

Chris Jones was borderline but I think he has shown enough that it would take something incredible (besides a huge drop off in his play or off field incident) to boot him off the team.

So that is 15 guys I think we carry on D for sure.

CBs is kinda an odd spot. Ryan/Dennard/Fletcher/McClain all are very likely to make this team but none are a lock. None would be cost prohibitive to keep or cut. All of them have flashed at times and at other times looked over whelmed. I know everyone has their favorites in this group but I think they are all pretty close skill wise and that is just personal bias of over stating games they did well in and an over enthuses of games when others looked bad.

BobDigital said:

A lot of people tend to over think the roster when it comes to spots open and depth. We tend to overrate our depth players as most fans do. The fact is usually you have about 30 good players on your team and 20 Jags you are looking to upgrade.

Here are the spots locked down IMO

DE - Jones Nink Shread
DT - Easley Branch Siliga Jones
LB - Mayo Hightower Collins
CB - Arrington Bulter* (will talk about CBs later)
S - McCourty Chung Ebner

Everyone else is fighting for a spot.

Ebner makes it on his STs value.

Arrington in the slot is very good and if he is cut it is for financial reasons not play. People bring up the SB but he was forced to play on the outside and that is not his game.

Butler is kind of a default lock. I think you need to see what he can do year 2 before you make a call on him no matter how good or bad he does this off season play wise.

Chris Jones was borderline but I think he has shown enough that it would take something incredible (besides a huge drop off in his play or off field incident) to boot him off the team.

So that is 15 guys I think we carry on D for sure.

CBs is kinda an odd spot. Ryan/Dennard/Fletcher/McClain all are very likely to make this team but none are a lock. None would be cost prohibitive to keep or cut. All of them have flashed at times and at other times looked over whelmed. I know everyone has their favorites in this group but I think they are all pretty close skill wise and that is just personal bias of over stating games they did well in and an over enthuses of games when others looked bad.

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I disagree.

DE - Jones Nink Shread
DT - Easley Branch Siliga Jones
LB - Mayo Hightower Collins Jones
CB - Arrington Bulter* (will talk about CBs later) Dennard Ryan
S - McCourty Chung Ebner Wilson Harmon

LB - Jones is a lock because his ST value
CB - They know the System. They always played many snaps, except Dennard last year.
S - I see no veteran being brought, and if no one is drafted the group remains the same.

farn said:

I know it'd make for nervous times, but there have been starting CBs on this team since BB has been in town. Wouldn't be surprised to see some of that...

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This post is making me feel stupid. Yes, there have been starting CB's on all of BB's teams. From what I've seen, there have been starting CB's on every team for decades. I don't understand your point.

patsbrasilpatriotas said:

I disagree.

DE - Jones Nink Shread
DT - Easley Branch Siliga Jones
LB - Mayo Hightower Collins Jones
CB - Arrington Bulter* (will talk about CBs later) Dennard Ryan
S - McCourty Chung Ebner Wilson Harmon

LB - Jones is a lock because his ST value
CB - They know the System. They always played many snaps, except Dennard last year.
S - I see no veteran being brought, and if no one is drafted the group remains the same.

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Do you mean White as the LB Ster? There is no Jones. If so, I would note that Belichick brought in competition in Freeny.

mgteich said:

Do you mean White as the LB Ster? There is no Jones. If so, I would note that Belichick brought in competition in Freeny.

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Yes White. Wrong Chris.

I think with the apparent emphasis that BB is giving the LB group , the group will be : Collins , Hightowwer , Mayo and White + any of the LB that were there or Freeny+ a draft pick .

patsbrasilpatriotas said:

I disagree.

DE - Jones Nink Shread
DT - Easley Branch Siliga Jones
LB - Mayo Hightower Collins Jones
CB - Arrington Bulter* (will talk about CBs later) Dennard Ryan
S - McCourty Chung Ebner Wilson Harmon

LB - Jones is a lock because his ST value
CB - They know the System. They always played many snaps, except Dennard last year.
S - I see no veteran being brought, and if no one is drafted the group remains the same.

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I respectfully disagree.

White at LB was one guy I was considering putting on the lock list. That one I have the lease problem with you saying should be a lock (we have too many Jones on this team ). I just don't think his STs is SO good it locks him up a spot if we find a LB or 2 that can actually play LB. White can't really play LB so he needs to make it solely on his STs and he is not Ebner or Slater as far as STs ability. Like I said though this one I can easily see a case for and almost included myself.

Dennard/Ryan I patently disagree. Our CBs IMO could easily turn out to be Arrington, Butler, Fletcher, McClain, Ryan or the same first 4 with Dennard. We could decide to only keep 5 CBs or draft another CB high and carry 6 but be forced to jettison one of the other 4.

I could easily see either Ryan or Dennard being the odd man out. Both would be doubtful but we are not talking about a package deal just one or the other.

S - Wislon/Harmon right now both look safe. If we draft a safety and he looks good though do we carry 6? I don't think so. in that case Wilson or Harmon goes IMO. I don't think either has done so well you are forced to keep them.

Currently they would be considered locks. Sure. I am not talking currently though I am talking overall within the bounds of being semi-realistic. It is easily possible we draft a Safety in the 6th and he turns out to be really good and we need to make a choice on either Harmon or Wilson. It is not likely but possible.

I think honestly we are just just coming at this question from 2 different ways.

My thinking is "Is it possible for 1 player to kind of come out of no where and bump one of these guys off?" I think for a lot of the players on our roster the answer is yes.

BobDigital said:

I respectfully disagree.

White at LB was one guy I was considering putting on the lock list. That one I have the lease problem with you saying should be a lock (we have too many Jones on this team ). I just don't think his STs is SO good it locks him up a spot if we find a LB or 2 that can actually play LB. White can't really play LB so he needs to make it solely on his STs and he is not Ebner or Slater as far as STs ability. Like I said though this one I can easily see a case for and almost included myself.

Dennard/Ryan I patently disagree. Our CBs IMO could easily turn out to be Arrington, Butler, Fletcher, McClain, Ryan or the same first 4 with Dennard. We could decide to only keep 5 CBs or draft another CB high and carry 6 but be forced to jettison one of the other 4.

I could easily see either Ryan or Dennard being the odd man out. Both would be doubtful but we are not talking about a package deal just one or the other.

S - Wislon/Harmon right now both look safe. If we draft a safety and he looks good though do we carry 6? I don't think so. in that case Wilson or Harmon goes IMO. I don't think either has done so well you are forced to keep them.

Currently they would be considered locks. Sure. I am not talking currently though I am talking overall within the bounds of being semi-realistic. It is easily possible we draft a Safety in the 6th and he turns out to be really good and we need to make a choice on either Harmon or Wilson. It is not likely but possible.

I think honestly are just just coming at this question from 2 different ways.

My thinking is "Is it possible for 1 player to kind of come out of no where and bump one of these guys off?" I think for a lot of the players on our roster the answer is yes.

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Now i agree with you

There are for me three types of players.

11 on each side that start the games, and these are obviously locks in the 53 roster - Top Talent

Today they would be:
(12)
QB Tom Brady
RB: LeGarrette Blount
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Chandler (2 TE set)
WR Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, Danny Amendola
OL: Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Bryan Stork, Ryan Wendell, DRAFT PICK
(15)
DE: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich - Sheard
DT: Sealver Siliga, Alan Branch - Easley
LB: Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower, Mayo
CB: Malcolm Butler, Kyle Arrington (Slot), DRAFT PICK
S: Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty
(3)
K: Stephen Gostkowski
Q: Ryan Allen
LS: Ott

Players who have a very important role in the a specific situation - red zone target - , or are important players for the future, or have ST´s role. We can upgrade them but i think it will be easier to upgrade the last group of players.
(16)
QB Jimmy Garoppolo
RB Brandon Bolden
FB: James Develin
TE: Michael Hoomanawanui, Tim Wright
WR Matthew Slater
OL: Cameron Fleming, Marcus Cannon, Kline

DE:
DT: Chris Jones
LB: Chris White
CB: Logan Ryan, Dennard - Fletcher, McClain
S: Nate Ebner, Duron Harmon, Tavon Wilson

And a third list of players who are ´´easily`` replaceable

QB: Gilbert
RB: Jonas Gray, James White, Gaffney, Lewis, Cadet?
FB:
TE:
WR:Boyce, Dobson, Krause, Gibson?, Dorsey, Tyms
OL: Jordan Devey, Barker,Hauptmann

DE: Moore, Buchanan, Bequette
DT: Joe Vellano
LB: Gordon, Darius Fleming, Rufus Johnson?, Martin, Skinner, Morris, Freeny?
CB:Green, Swanson, Chekwa,
S:

patsbrasilpatriotas said:

Now i agree with you

There are for me three types of players.

11 on each side that start the games, and these are obviously locks in the 53 roster - Top Talent

Today they would be:
(12)
QB Tom Brady
RB: LeGarrette Blount
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Chandler (2 TE set)
WR Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, Danny Amendola
OL: Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Bryan Stork, Ryan Wendell, DRAFT PICK
(15)
DE: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich - Sheard
DT: Sealver Siliga, Alan Branch - Easley
LB: Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower, Mayo
CB: Malcolm Butler, Kyle Arrington (Slot), DRAFT PICK
S: Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty
(3)
K: Stephen Gostkowski
Q: Ryan Allen
LS: Ott

Players who have a very important role in the a specific situation - red zone target - , or are important players for the future, or have ST´s role. We can upgrade them but i think it will be easier to upgrade the last group of players.
(16)
QB Jimmy Garoppolo
RB Brandon Bolden
FB: James Develin
TE: Michael Hoomanawanui, Tim Wright
WR Matthew Slater
OL: Cameron Fleming, Marcus Cannon, Kline

DE:
DT: Chris Jones
LB: Chris White
CB: Logan Ryan, Dennard - Fletcher, McClain
S: Nate Ebner, Duron Harmon, Tavon Wilson

And a third list of players who are ´´easily`` replaceable

QB: Gilbert
RB: Jonas Gray, James White, Gaffney, Lewis, Cadet?
FB:
TE:
WR:Boyce, Dobson, Krause, Gibson?, Dorsey, Tyms
OL: Jordan Devey, Barker,Hauptmann

DE: Moore, Buchanan, Bequette
DT: Joe Vellano
LB: Gordon, Darius Fleming, Rufus Johnson?, Martin, Skinner, Morris, Freeny?
CB:Green, Swanson, Chekwa,
S:

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"STARTERS" (29)
You have 14 on defense, rather than 15.
Two are draft picks.

THE UPGRADABLE (16)
You list 18.
This includes Dennard or Fletcher as the 6th corner.
Since we are likely to carry only 4 TE's, this should be Hooman or Wright as the 3rd TE.

TOTALS SO FAR (45)
The presumption is a draftee at OL and at CB.

OFFENSE (19)
QB (2) Brady, Garapoollo
RB (2) Blount, Bolden
FB (1) Develin
WR (3) Edelman, LaFell, Amendola
TE (3) Gronkowski, Chandler, Hooman/Wright
OL (8) Solder, rookie, Stork, Wendell, Vollmer, Cannon, Fleming, Kline

DEFENSE (21)
DE (3) Ninkovich, Jones, Sheard
DT (4) Branch, Siliga, Jones, Easley
LB (3) Mayo, Hightower, Collins
CB (6) Arrington, Butler, rookie, Ryan, McClain, Fletcher/Dennard
S (5) McCourty, Chung, Harmon, Wilson, Ebner

SPECIAL TEAMS (5)
Specialists (3) Gostkowksi, Allen, Ott
Special Teams (2) Slater, White (they never play at the positions listed)
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COMMENTS
These are your core 45, any of which could be upgraded other than Brady or Gronkowski. For example, I could see any of the core corners being cut.
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WHERE WE GO FROM HERE - PRIORITIES
You have a list of easily replaceable players. I see the situation a different way. Accepting your list of 45, this group of 29 (where is the 30th, Antonio Johnson?) is competing for the last EIGHT roster positions with rookies and players signed or traded for. Obviously, we have no need to replace any of them if they are cut. I see the priorities as follows

FIRST TIER NEEDS (presuming the 45)
1) Third down RB
2) #4 RB
3) #4 LB
4) #4 WR
5) #8 DL

THE LAST FOUR ROSTER SPOTS
6) #9 OL
7) #9 DL
8) #5 RB


Obviously, the last three roster spots could end up being at any position. For example, we might have a 5th position LB, a 4th TE, a 3rd QB, a 10th DL or an additional special teamer in place of any of the three (or even of the eight last spots listed.
==============
Your list of 45 should help us focus on three things. First, does the list of 45 need to be upgraded, in addition to filling the last 8 spots? The draft needs to include a guard. Lastly, the 8 positions (as well as LG and CB) are certainly ones where we might focus upon for places for rookies to come in and compete.

patsbrasilpatriotas said:

Mayo was injured in October 2014. An injury that takes six months to be recovered and fit for the game.

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And yet, here we are.....6 months later, and he can't even pass a physical or take part in OTAs, so that should tell you what an exact science some of these time tables are. They are nothing more than rough estimates.

I would definitely agree with you that Mayo will be okay to start the season (IF he's still on the team, of course--which is expected, but not a certainty), but Donte Hightower is a 100 percent completely different situation altogether.

As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be remotely surprised if Hightower starts the year on PUP. They'll be cutting it close, and he is a very important piece of the puzzle to have for the middle/end points of the season, so they will likely be cautious in their approach. Ultimately, we could have this conversation in August and it could still be too early to tell.

BobDigital said:

S - Wislon/Harmon right now both look safe. If we draft a safety and he looks good though do we carry 6? I don't think so. in that case Wilson or Harmon goes IMO. I don't think either has done so well you are forced to keep them.

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I would assume that Tavon Wilson would be a lock no matter what, considering that he saw the most special teams snaps out of any N.E. Patriots player last year. And yes, that means even more than Matthew Slater.

Overall, I do agree with your general idea that we have about 30-35 "locks," with about 15-20 players competing for a spot on the 53.