Draft nerds, how strong is 2015 class overall?

How strong IS the draft class I wondered as I usually do when first stepping into a new draft.

Often, BB's (and other coach's) decision to hoard picks, trade up, down or out into future drafts is driven by the relative strength of the draft class COMPARED to PRIOR (and NEXT year's) draft classes.

Nothing earth shattering. When the draft class is weak, BB trades out of it. If next year is deemed strong, he'll shuffle picks into that class and use the picks to take advantage of the higher number of NFL ready players. Within a particular draft, if it's deep he'll trade back. Top heavy, trade up. Slice it further, if it's only strong at the OT, he'll adjust the ladder and strategy accordingly. I.E. Trade up to grab the last OT if there is a run at the position, back further if others will be available, or out completely if no NFL quality remains.

Just as a rising tide lifts all ships, one would first be wise to determine the overall strength of a draft compared to recent classes (which is just another way of saying, the current crop of young NFL players) and very near future prospects. If it's a strong draft, pick away. No? Trade away instead. If I had to define draft strength, I'd say it's the number (or percent) of draftees that could step in and be average starters within 1 or 2 seasons across the NFL, overall and for each position. Daunting task.

I trust those here at PF more than random guys on the web. What's the consensus on the strength of the 2015 class compared to recent others? Are any positions stronger than others, not so much within this draft, but compared to other drafts and the current NFL players at that spot. Or in other words, where can NFL quality players be found in this draft.

There are dozens of active threads discussing your very question in this sub forum.. just go and read them.

The truth is that it's a sub-par draft class, particularly because there are fewer than 32 players who deserve a first round grade. Some positions are deep, such as WR, RB and pass rusher (DE/OLB), but that's really about it.

The NFL has been lucky that there's two potential franchise QBs in this year's draft - Winston and Mariota - which keeps the media happy. Without them, they'd have next to nothing to write about.

A good way of describing 1st-round players is as blue chips (potentially elite players, should start Day 1) and red chips (key contributors in their rookie years). This year there's a reasonable number of blue chippers, but nowhere near as many red chippers as you'd hope for - and it's the red chip players that really provide the depth to a draft.


We're drafting #32 overall at the end of the 1st, so in theory all of the red chip players should be gone by the time it's our pick. Unless we see someone we really like still on the board, I'd be very happy with us trading down into Day 2, or maybe even turning the pick into a 2016 1st.

A lot of people will go directly to QBs as they can make weaker draft classes compelling. I tend to think we should leave QBs out of it and discuss the rest of the class.

This class to be is pretty average to me. I think the top is weak but rounds 3 and 4 are pretty good.

If the draft is poorer than normal, trade up to insure that the pick is in the meatier
part of the draft (rounds 1 thru 4). I don't think the Patriots need more 2016 draft
picks because they should max out next year with compensatory picks. Also, all
teams have $80,000 bonus money allotted for udfas. If the Patriots have only a
handful of udfas, they should be able to concentrate on high end udfas.
Last year, the ufda with the top bonus money was Cameron Gordon OLB Michigan.
He had very little playing experience and was rated the 86th best OLB and 999th
best player by Draft Scout. Seems like a waste of bonus money.

IMO it's pretty rare for "1st round talent" to extend even close to #32 -- thus whoever the Patriots pick will be called a reach. But I agree that this class overall isn't super exciting. Position by position, I'd break it down something like this:

QB: Weak
WR: Strongish
RB: Strongish
TE: Weak
OT: Weakish
C: Average
OG: Strong

DT: Strongish
DE: Average
OLB: Average
ILB: Average
CB: Average
FS: Weak
SS: Average

Jimke said:

If the draft is poorer than normal, trade up to insure that the pick is in the meatier part of the draft

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I said this in another thread, but: trading up into the "meatier part" of round 1 would require all 4 of the Patriots' day 1 & 2 picks. I just don't see a player worth that on the board.

There should still be some good talent available at OG, DT, WR & RB later in the draft.

patchick said:

IMO it's pretty rare for "1st round talent" to extend even close to #32 -- thus whoever the Patriots pick will be called a reach. But I agree that this class overall isn't super exciting. Position by position, I'd break it down something like this:

Click to expand...

*cough* trade down *cough*

ctpatsfan77 said:

*cough* trade down *cough*

Click to expand...

IMO it's all about whether they like the CBs available at #32. If not, I could see either a modest trade down + a modest trade up from #64 to nab two solid talents, or a trade for future value.

Personally it doesn't matter to me where we pick, all that matters is the talent we add.

luuked said:

There are dozens of active threads discussing your very question in this sub forum.. just go and read them.

Click to expand...

Thanks for the input. Perhaps if summaries of the overall 2015 draft strength, and breakdowns by position compared to prior and future drafts are so easy to find, you might list them here for us to discuss.

patchick said:

I said this in another thread, but: trading up into the "meatier part" of round 1 would require all 4 of the Patriots' day 1 & 2 picks. I just don't see a player worth that on the board.

There should still be some good talent available at OG, DT, WR & RB later in the draft.

Click to expand...

I think that Belichick is usually picking in the 25-45 range. Is this the sweet spot of this draft, as it has been for others. To ask this another way, is it worth trading 96 and 101 to move up to this range for 64.

To me, it seems that we would do very well with 32, 42 and 97 in addressing the three major needs.

However, if we see great value in 61-121, we can stay put and get our 5 players in the top 101, perhaps using 131 and 178 to move up, if needed, or use 131 and 178 to move up to 116 for yet another high 4th round pick.

patchick said:

IMO it's pretty rare for "1st round talent" to extend even close to #32 -- thus whoever the Patriots pick will be called a reach. But I agree that this class overall isn't super exciting. Position by position, I'd break it down something like this:

QB: Weak
WR: Strongish
RB: Strongish
TE: Weak
OT: Weakish
C: Average
OG: Strong

DT: Strongish
DE: Average
OLB: Average
ILB: Average
CB: Average
FS: Weak
SS: Average

Click to expand...

Thanks, PC, exactly what looking for. So overall, nothing spectacular. And thx - from other posters - class perhaps even a bit below average, a bit a strength in the hi-mid rounds.

On the good, looks like this class might at least be a bit strong on NE's potential positional holes, and exactly where we hold extra picks. On the bad, class a bit average.

PC, others, how does 2016 look to you? Just curious if we might see BB push more picks than usual into 2016, if it's a bumper crop. Or not, if it's a dud.

manxman2601 said:

Personally it doesn't matter to me where we pick, all that matters is the talent we add.

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Agreed with that. Just that even those blind squirrels of other team coaches get lucky every now and then. The more good vs rotten acorns (players) in the (draft) pool, the better BB's chance to pluck them out before the they're gone.

pdangle said:

On the good, looks like this class might at least be a bit strong on NE's potential positional holes

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I agree -- while the draft is just fair to middling overall, it could set up well for the Patriots. The big wild card is cornerbacks.

patchick said:

IMO it's pretty rare for "1st round talent" to extend even close to #32 -- thus whoever the Patriots pick will be called a reach. But I agree that this class overall isn't super exciting. Position by position, I'd break it down something like this:

QB: Weak
WR: Strongish
RB: Strongish
TE: Weak
OT: Weakish
C: Average
OG: Strong

DT: Strongish
DE: Average
OLB: Average
ILB: Average
CB: Average
FS: Weak
SS: Average

Click to expand...

A side issue is the strength of the draft in the 25-65 or even 25-105 where the patriots often have lots of picks. So many times, media talks about the strength of the draft for a position, and what they are really discussing is the strength of the position in the top 20 (where the patriots rarely have an interest).

In any case, this is a great year to need a couple of guards. Perhaps the value will even be there at 32.