Six Picks - Six Needs

patfanken said:

Interest discussion. Here's my take

1. Unless someone can convince me that one of the CB's that might fall to us at #32 can be shut down CB, I'd have to pass on picking one that high.

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I'm not sure I can think of a player in the last decade who was a "shut down CB" as a rookie. Revis didn't make the Pro Bowl until his 2nd season. Richard Sherman had a solid rookie year, but emerged as a top CB in his second season. Patrick Peterson was an immediate impact player. If your expectation is that any rookie CB is going to step in and play at a Pro Bowl/All Pro level as a rookie, then I think you are setting the bar too high. If it is a longer term expectation, that's different.

patfanken said:

2. The rarest athlete on the planet is the impact player at 300+ lbs, either on the offensive or defensive lines, simply because there are so few of them. Given that, I would hope then that BB would eschew the knee jerk impulse to grab a CB, and stick to the policies that kept him on top and get the best OL/DL available that early (or in a trade down)

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I strongly believe in NOT drafting for need, so I certainly don't advocate taking a CB just because there is a need at that position. With that said, I you have to evaluate prospects with some respect to where they would fit on your roster. If - simply as a hypothetical - the Pats had an equal draft grade on Byron Jones and Owamagbe Odighizuwa as prospects, I would expect them to favor the CB over the EDGE player because of the bigger positional need (whereas prior to FA I would have expected the opposite). The mistake would be to take a CB with a lesser grade over a player at another position with a higher grade.

I firmly believe that the most valuable players outside of CB are your lineman, so I'm all in favor of taking a lineman if they grade out equally. The problem is that I don't have the defensive lineman graded quite as highly. I'd rather take a 1st round talent at RB (Gurley) or CB (Peters) than reach for a so-so defensive tackle. I had a really high grade on Easley last year, so that was an easy call for me. This year isn't so clear cut. I'd be ok with Eddie Goldman at 32, but I don't think he's anywhere near the prospect that Peters or Gurley is. TJ Clemmings is probably the easiest "planet theory" option for me, as I think he has a chance to be a dominant OL, but he is a work in progress.

As for the rationale to "stick to the policies that kept him on top", BB did ok the last time he drafted a DB in the 1st round, back in 2010.

patfanken said:

3. As far as I can see, the CB's are falling further and further behind the physical abilities of the WR's. Every year another half dozen or more 6'4 220 lbs giants get sprung on the league, yet the DB's aren't keeping up. Except for his length, Brandon Browner was nothing special as a CB.....but because of that length he became special....in the right system.

4. Maybe its time to take a lesson from the TE position, and dip into the Basketball world and find some 6'3-5 "althletes", who aren't going to make in the NBA and begin developing them into the NFL CB's of the future. Just a thought.

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It's not a new thought. We've discussed it on this forum since the 2010 season when Gronk and Ahern set the standard for the multiple TE offense. Jeff Chadiha wrote a piece in which he quoted Tony Gonzalez discussing that basic idea:

Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez joked that there are so many agile tight ends that teams may have to start scouting basketball games for safety talent. "Maybe they should find some 2-guard types, 6-foot-4 guys who can match up with tight ends," he said.

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http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/page...ifts-big-physical-safety-more-versatile-model

We've discussed that and other articles about the mismatches between DBs and offensive skill players for a while now. Here's one example:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...e-patriots-and-the-big-nickel-defense.918437/

BB has discussed this too, IIRC. I believe he's said that the big problem with basketball converts is that while many of them have great hands and footwork, the majority just don't have enough foot speed. One of the top CB prospects this year, Quentin Rollins of Miami (Ohio), has just that concern.

patfanken said:

5. So my question to the forum, IS there anyone out there, who fits the need. Is there a "shutdown CB" in this draft. I don't think so. And if not, isn't picking a lesser CB at 32 become a reach. Finally, is there another developmental big guy like Browner or Sherman out there that could be worth developing.

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I think that there are 3 CBs who I would grade pretty highly:

- Marcus Peters is one of the 5-6 best man CB prospects in the past 6 years, along with Joe Haden, Patrick Peterson, Jimmy Smith and Kyle Fuller. I would give him a much higher grade than top 10 picks Morris Claiborne (#6, 2012), Marcus Gilmore (#10, 2012), Dee Milliner (#9, 2013) or Justin Gilbert (#8, 2014). I grade him higher than Trae Waynes, who will probably be the first CB off the board this year. There are some questions about his top end speed and athleticism (as there were with both Joe Haden and Kyle Fuller), and about his character, but I think he'd be a steal at 32. There was some discussion about whether he was good enough to warrant taking at 32 even when we thought we'd still have Revis and Browner.

- Kevin Johnson is very reminiscent of Devin McCourty in terms of his all around game - including special teams ability - but also has much more upside as a press-man CB.

- Byron Jones also has an all-around game to go with his amazing athleticism, and the kind of work ethic, leadership and smarts that BB generally covets. He may have the highest ceiling of any of the three.

mayoclinic said:

I think that there are 3 CBs who I would grade pretty highly:

- Marcus Peters is one of the 5-6 best man CB prospects in the past 6 years, along with Joe Haden, Patrick Peterson, Jimmy Smith and Kyle Fuller. I would give him a much higher grade than top 10 picks Morris Claiborne (#6, 2012), Marcus Gilmore (#10, 2012), Dee Milliner (#9, 2013) or Justin Gilbert (#8, 2014). I grade him higher than Trae Waynes, who will probably be the first CB off the board this year. There are some questions about his top end speed and athleticism (as there were with both Joe Haden and Kyle Fuller), and about his character, but I think he'd be a steal at 32. There was some discussion about whether he was good enough to warrant taking at 32 even when we thought we'd still have Revis and Browner.

- Kevin Johnson is very reminiscent of Devin McCourty in terms of his all around game - including special teams ability - but also has much more upside as a press-man CB.

- Byron Jones also has an all-around game to go with his amazing athleticism, and the kind of work ethic, leadership and smarts that BB generally covets. He may have the highest ceiling of any of the three.

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I think the issue is that many posters cannot accept that corners are very, very expensive, whether in free agency or as draft choices.

The media seems to think that we will receive decent value in McClain and Fletcher. They believe that we also would have done so with Cromartie (who many of us wanted). All the rest were "overpriced".

As far as the draft, once one gets out of the top 16, I think that a corner who is likely to contribute as a rookie and be a starter in his second year is worthy of picking. Since there are several corners available (different depending on who we ask), I would think that that it is well worth drafting a corner early. many are predicting a run on corners, which may or may not happen.

Some think that we can draft a corner (or two) in the 3rd or 4th round and train them up. While that MIGHT work, I would think that a corner picked in the 17-48 has a much better chance of being a starter than one chosen later. In THIS draft, I suspect that this window might close earlier that there middle of the second round.

THEREFORE, I suspect that we are likely to draft a corner with our first pick, wherever Belichick think the value is right (anywhere between 17 and 35 or so).

My WAG is that if the draft were held today, Belichick would try to trade up for Peters, using our second if necessary.

mgteich said:

WAG is that if the draft were held today, Belichick would try to trade up for Peters, using our second if necessary.

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I think he's worth it, IF the Pats feel that his character issues are just immaturity and that he can take coaching and play within the system. Peters - Hardison - Marpet is pretty much my trifecta.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

They are clearly looking for some qualities from players, despite which rounded they are drafted in.

Let's take a look at their drafts since 2010, when Pete Carroll and crew took over. I'll include all picks, including both hits and misses. I will list them below by round and include the year.

1- Earl Thomas, 2010
4- Walter Thurmond, 2010
5- Richard Sherman, 2011
5- Max LeGree, 2010
5- Kam Chancellor, 2010
5- Tharold Simon, 2013
6- Eric Pinkins, 2014
6- Jeremy Lane, 2012
6- Winston Guy, 2012
6- Byron Maxwell, 2011

This is a remarkable group of players, considering there is only one pick in the first three rounds and two in the first four.

Of these players, it would be hard to argue that Thomas, Sherman, Chancellor, Thurmond (when healthy), Lane (nickel back), or Maxwell are not solid starters; although Brady picked on Simon in the Super Bowl, Simon was not a good matchup for the Patriots because of his lankiness. I'll leave Simon off and suffice to say that six out of ten picks are solid starters.

Thomas, Sherman, and Chancellor are All-Pro players, while Maxwell just signed the second biggest deal of any CB this offseason. Maybe Maxwell won't turn out to be great, but let's just say he is in between elite and non-elite, considering some team is paying him a lot of money as a #1 corner. So, let's say that three and a half of those ten picks are elite, with three of them being arguable the best at their positions.

Take a look at who the Patriots have drafted over the last fourteen years under Belichick. Using 12 picks in the first three rounds (as opposed to 1 pick for Seattle) and 25 picks overall (as opposed to 10 for Seattle), the Patriots have not come close to approaching the overall value of Seattle's drafting for defensive backs. In particular, Seattle owns the late rounds; if you look at how the Patriots have drafted in the late rounds (5, 6, and 7), you'll see that it is very, very unlikely to actually get any value there. Seattle has gotten, Sherman, Chancellor, Simon, Lane, and Maxwell- five starters in the later rounds, whereas the Patriots have gotten only Dennard, who may get cut next offseason.

1- Devin McCourty, 2010
1- Brandon Meriweather, 2007
2- Tavon Wilson, 2012
2- Ras-I Dowling, 2011
2- Pat Chung, 2008
2- Darius Butler, 2008
2- Terrence Wheatley, 2008
2- Eugene Wilson, 2003
3- Logan Ryan, 2013
3- Duron Harmon, 2013
3- Brock Willilams, 2001
3- Ellis Hobbs, 2005
4- Jonathan Wilhite, 2008
4- James Sanders, 2005
4- Antowan Harris, 2000
4- Asante Samuel, 2003
4- Gus Scott, 2004
5- Dexter Reid, 2004
6- Jamea Thomas, 2013
6- Leonard Myers, 2001
6- Mike Richardson, 2006
7- Alfonzo Dennard, 2012
7- Willie Andrews, 2006
7- Christian Morton, 2004
7- Malcolm Williams, 2007

So, you can call it luck or an anomaly, or whatever you want, but this sure would be a lot of luck that continues its luckiness over and over. Am I saying the Seahawks will not have a bad draft or two, or that they are infallible? Of course not. I am merely showing that it is clear they have a less random and more predictable way of evaluating talent for their system. Not to say their system doesn't make it easier to draft players, just that they are more likely to hit on defensive backs through the draft than the Patriots.

So, yes, I agree with you 100% that they are both good and lucky, but much more good than lucky.

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Magnificent Post!!

The SeaHawks have done a masterful Job drafting Secondary, and you, of documenting it!!

I don't know why they would double dip at CB, they aren't lacking at depth.I think they would grab a WR or a LB BEFORE they took a second CB. Granted it more depends on who is available than anything else, I think if Cann is available at 32 and they don't like any of the CB they will easily take Cann or trade down

meatface said:

I don't know why they would double dip at CB, they aren't lacking at depth.I think they would grab a WR or a LB BEFORE they took a second CB. Granted it more depends on who is available than anything else, I think if Cann is available at 32 and they don't like any of the CB they will easily take Cann or trade down

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OK, so we are discussing my 6th priority. I could see Beiichick choosing a LB or WR there.

My issue is NOT about CB depth. It is about drafting a potential second starter. I'm fine with our slot corners Arrington and McClain.

I have little faith in our "starting" corners. We should be looking for developing THREE corners for the future. Perhaps, Butler and our 1st rounder will be two of the three. I don't see that as a lock. Until March 10th, many, if not most, of us had Dennard cut and Ryan moved to safety. Butler was thought to valuable to keep as a developmental backup. Now, because of subtraction, we have starting quality corners. Are you counting on Fletcher and Chekwa?

For me, we will have an open competition at corner. Only Arrington seems set for this year and next (many wanting him cut a few weeks ago). So, let the competition begin. An additional contender won't hurt.

mgteich said:

OK, so we are discussing my 6th priority. I could see Beiichick choosing a LB or WR there.

My issue is NOT about CB depth. It is about drafting a potential second starter. I'm fine with our slot corners Arrington and McClain.

I have little faith in our "starting" corners. We should be looking for developing THREE corners for the future. Perhaps, Butler and our 1st rounder will be two of the three. I don't see that as a lock. Until March 10th, many, if not most, of us had Dennard cut and Ryan moved to safety. Butler was thought to valuable to keep as a developmental backup. Now, because of subtraction, we have starting quality corners. Are you counting on Fletcher and Chekwa?

For me, we will have an open competition at corner. Only Arrington seems set for this year and next (many wanting him cut a few weeks ago). So, let the competition begin. An additional contender won't hurt.

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the coaching staff loves Arrington, i would be surprised if he doesn't play out his contract. I expect they will look to draft a starter and think they can find one in the other corners they have, the staff could look at Dennard or Fletcher as simply having a down year. But still you are right it will be a training camp competition

1Kevin Johnson,2/3 Ogbuehi, Erving, Grady Jarrett, 4 Tyler Lockett. binkie prospects and good fits/needs imo

meatface said:

the coaching staff loves Arrington, i would be surprised if he doesn't play out his contract. I expect they will look to draft a starter and think they can find one in the other corners they have, the staff could look at Dennard or Fletcher as simply having a down year. But still you are right it will be a training camp competition

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I agree that Arrington is a favorite of the coaching staff, not unreasonable for one of the best nickel backs in the NFL.

If we view the draft from a view of future need (perhaps 2016 need), it becomes clear that this is the year to focus on finding corners. IMHO, we should have 3-4 players on the 2015 roster who are potential starters in 2016. As you indicated, we may have one in our set of players (Ryan, Butler, Dennard and Fletcher).

BTW, I consider McClain a backup to Arrington, and Chekwa a special teamer.