The Patriots will pick a RB in the first 2 rounds

scott99 said:

It's funny you say that about Coleman, I've seen him run over a lot of guys and continue running. Just seems like he's running past people so often, people might think he's not a contact runner.

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I can't find the reference right away, but I recall reading recently that 52% of Coleman's yardage came after contact. That's outstanding. Todd Gurley had 62% of his yards after contract, FWIW.

Greg Gabriel rates Coleman as his #1 RB, ahead of Gordon and Gurley, noting:

My thinking is that if Coleman played behind the Wisconsin line he may have run for over 2500 yards. As it was, he ran for 2036 yards, a 7.5 average per carry, 15 touchdowns and 25 receptions.

Coleman has a complete game. He can run with power between the tackles, is creative, and consistently gets yards after contact. He has the speed to turn the corner and is elusive in the open field. As a receiver, he is very reliable, runs good routes and has very good hands. Add to that the fact that he can already pass protect and is a dangerous kickoff returner.

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http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/the-nfl-drafts-5-best-running-backs/

I agree that Coleman has a complete game. He was my #1 rated RB for a while, though I've bumped Gurley ahead of him based on his power.

manxman2601 said:

I like Duke Johnson but I prefer Abdullah for three reasons:

1. Abdullah has the best vision I've seen in a RB I've ever scouted. Admittedly that's only 3-4 years.
2. Abdullah's ability to change direction is best in class as his combine testified to.
3. Fits the Shane Vereen role perfectly and would be an improvement on Vereen. To my mind he's the best Vereen replacement and I'd rather have the best rather than second best.

I'd be fine with Duke Johnson, I just prefer Abdullah.

I would caution against scouting through highlight tapes alone. at Draftbreakdown you get full game cut ups of all the various RBs. It gives you a better all-round perspective.

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Thanks for the great resource. Absolutely agree highlight tape can be garbage, depending on who put it together.

I went back and watched Vereen against Stanford, Oregon, and Washington State. Nothing great to report in any facet of the game but his inside runs were stronger than Ameer. Not as strong as I remember them being when the Pats drafted him and the general board heralded him as a "complete back," but not bad. Ameer vs. Michigan State and USC on the other hand... much tougher sledding.

I understand "Vereen replacement" as the current hole but to me the gold standard is Kevin Faulk, who was such a weapon on inside draw once the Pats went to the shotgun-spread offense under McDaniels. I think discounting backs that have that additional skillset is potentially a mistake in setting the draft board.

Kevin Faulk, to refer back to my point about the fifth year option, also was the last RB the Pats kept at a cap hit of more than $4 million. As a 33-year-old in 2009. The ability to both run complimentary routes AND cut up a sub defense on the inside draw seems to be the skillset the Pats prize, even when that RB is part of a RBBC.

I completely agree with your points on Abdullah. I would in fact go further and say he trounces Vereen on tape when it comes to how Vereen made his bones in the NFL, on outside stretch runs and flat routes. If you want a "Vereen replacement" he's probably better than Vereen.

mayoclinic said:

I can't find the reference right away, but I recall reading recently that 52% of Coleman's yardage came after contact. That's outstanding. Todd Gurley had 62% of his yards after contract, FWIW.

Greg Gabriel rates Coleman as his #1 RB, ahead of Gordon and Gurley, noting:


http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/the-nfl-drafts-5-best-running-backs/

I agree that Coleman has a complete game. He was my #1 rated RB for a while, though I've bumped Gurley ahead of him based on his power.

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I hope draftbreakdown puts more Coleman game tape on youtube because I didn't see much of that against Ohio State. Michigan State would be nice, that's a good NFL-style defense.

I will say that his pass blocking is as good as advertised. Game tape against Ohio State did show him allowing one sack on a swim move but most of the time he was able to deny rushers with his arms and stance alone. Gets to his spot quickly and in essence becomes an extension of the offensive line. Results in a very clean pocket when he doesn't whiff.

I wonder what "contact" means to the people doing these stats. Does somebody trying to grab Coleman's jersey as he's barreling by count? If so he got a lot of YAC on his long runs (most runs over 40+ yards in the NCAA I think).

reflexblue said:

With what happened in dallas i wouldn't be surprised if they took gurley which would render the whole question moot.

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i think he goes before 32 too - he has too much talent which is pretty much my point anyway.

manxman2601 said:

i think he goes before 32 too - he has too much talent which is pretty much my point anyway.

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I'm certainly not holding my breath for Gurley, either. If he's on the board, then I really hope we can get him and find a way to address CB and OL as well. If he's gone, then I hope we can pick up one of Tevin Coleman, Jay Ajayi or David Johnson on day 2. I understand that you would substitute Ameer Abdullah for Ajayi.

For me, if we can come out of day 2 with Hardison, Marpet, one of those 4 RBs and one of the top 7 CBs, I would be thrilled. Then we could get someone like Eric Rowe or Josh Shaw at the top of day 3, and add another OL.

Daniel Jeremiah just said on Path To The Draft that he doesn't think Gurley will be on the board at 23. Says there's just too much interest in him. Thinks he could go as high as 6 to the Jets.

manxman2601 said:

Daniel Jeremiah just said on Path To The Draft that he doesn't think Gurley will be on the board at 23. Says there's just too much interest in him. Thinks he could go as high as 6 to the Jets.

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Fine with me if he goes early, better than him being on the board and us choosing someone else. It's where he belongs anyway and this way he pushes at least one player down.

luuked said:

Fine with me if he goes early, better than him being on the board and us choosing someone else. It's where he belongs anyway and this way he pushes at least one player down.

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on the other hand if he is there at #32 BB could negotiate a good value trading down.

varjao said:

on the other hand if he is there at #32 BB could negotiate a good value trading down.

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Or get a tremendous value and player by simply taking him.

It seems everyone has now been hyping up Gordon and Gurley to be taken in the top 20, watch no RB get taken in the first 40 picks now

meatface said:

It seems everyone has now been hyping up Gordon and Gurley to be taken in the top 20, watch no RB get taken in the first 40 picks now

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I could see Dallas taking gurley or Gordon in the first.

mayoclinic said:

Or get a tremendous value and player by simply taking him...

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…one year after taking Dom Easley at 29? My wife would have to call an ambulance, or a hearse.

captain stone said:

…one year after taking Dom Easley at 29? My wife would have to call an ambulance, or a hearse.

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Yeah, I agree, I'd be shocked if we took any running back in the first few rounds. I think our needs at corner, defensive tackle and guard should be addressed first and foremost.

The RB scenario I see most likely is for the Pats to spend #96 or #97 on a RB they have rated as early 2nd round talent who drops (1) due to depth in the draft class and (2) de-emphasis on the running game in the NFL over the last few seasons.

If none of the quality RB prospects drops that low, then it just wasn't meant to be...the value never came to fruition. BB is a value shopper, and with the depth chart he already has at RB he can afford to wait another draft class (or two) until the draft stars align.

No need to force anything or spend a premium pick that could more productively go to DL, DB, WR or OG

With Blount, Gray, White, Cadet, Bolden, Gaffney, Lewis and Develin already in the stable and don't forget Ridley is still lingering around I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we didn't take any RB's in the draft. A UDFA maybe.

Unless, there are changes by draft day, I would think that Belichick would choose among the CB's available at 32, or with a slight move up. FIVE corners seem to draftable at on or around 32 (from 22-45).

http://www.drafttek.com/2015-NFL-Mock-Draft-Round1b.asp

I would not expect a RB until the end of the 3rd (where we have three picks). We might need to trade up or down at that point.

I'll throw in my 2-cent's worth here.

If TJ Yeldon is available at the end of the 3rd round, I'd say take him. While he didn't have the explosive talent that some of the "kewl" backs had, he's a tough sonofa***** and rarely lost yards. He almost always got 5 yards and was able to see the hole develop quickly and run to daylight. He also has pretty good hands for catching out in the flat, etc.

The one thing where I think he has a good edge is that, playing under Saban at Alabama, he played in a system VERY similar to what New England runs, including the terminology. That helps him get a foot up on someone else who wouldn't have to spend so much time learning ALL the system, etc.

I realize that the team has a number of needs, but Yeldon seems to me to be a very good value pick, and with his level of talent, certainly could, if needs be. used in a trade scenario for someone else.

OhExaulted1 said:

With Blount, Gray, White, Cadet, Bolden, Gaffney, Lewis and Develin already in the stable and don't forget Ridley is still lingering around I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we didn't take any RB's in the draft. A UDFA maybe.

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Long lists don't help me much. I'm satisfied that we are reasonably fine at FB (Develin) and 3rd down back (Cadet and White).

We have our special teamer in Bolden. He is also an 5th RB, able to the emergency backup at both the RB and 3rd down RB positions.

We have ONE of our starting rotational backs in Blount. Let see who is available as the rest of the RBBC.
=============================================
SECOND RUNNING BACK TO ROTATE WITH BLOUNT
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This is an important position. I have faith in exactly ZERO of these backs.
GRAY
GAFFNEY
LEWIS

We need to go into camp with more than these three plus an UDFA competing for the position of RB opposite Blount. We need competition for these positions. Some even think that White might not even make the roster. After all, he shown nothing at all.

BOTTOM LINE
We need some help. I'm fine if we sign Ridley or another veteran. I'm fine with waiting until the 4th to draft a RB. I am NOT fine with counting on Gray/Gaffney/Lewis to be the "starter" opposite Blount and to represent the only competition with White for a roster spot.

Bill should've signed Roy Helu instead of the non-running back Cadet; there would've therefore been
no reason to waste a top-150 pick on a RB, because there will be enough UDFAs & street FAs from which
to choose throughout the summer.

OhExaulted1 said:

With Blount, Gray, White, Cadet, Bolden, Gaffney, Lewis and Develin already in the stable and don't forget Ridley is still lingering around I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we didn't take any RB's in the draft. A UDFA maybe.

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Or perhaps something insane happens, like Gurley dropping to 64.