My Absurdly Early Pats' 2015 Draft Big Board

Here is my current board. Also needs to be refined. I will do it Patriots style with 75 players and only 4 tiers.

Notes - almost no DEs on here as well as very few 3rd down backs. Excessive CBs and OL with some DT.

Starter (order needs to be redone a bit within tiers)

#1 Byron Jones - CB
#2 Todd Gurley - RB
#3 Eddie Goldman - DT
#4 Marcus Peters - CB (biggest jump of any player from my last list. Half due to need and half due to keeping his nose clean)
#5 Malcome Brown - DT
#6 Cameron Erving - OL
#7 Jake Fisher - OL
#8 TJ Clemmings, OL
(gap)
#9 AJ Cann - OL
#10 Bernardrick McKinney - LB
#11 DJ Humphries - OT
#12 Alex Carter - CB
#13 Jalen Collins - CB* injured
#14 PJ Willams - CB
#15 Tevin Colman - RB
#16 Ameer Abdullah - RB
#17 Nelson Agholor - WR
#18 DGB - WR
#19 Tomlinson - OG
#20 Tre Jackson - OG

Potential Starters

#21 Marcus Hardison - DT
#22 Cedric Ogbeihu - OT/OG
#23 Ali Marpet - OG
#24 Preston Smith - DE
#25 Arie Kouandjio - OG
#26 Duke Johnson - RB
#27 Shaq Thompson - LB
#28 Mario Edwards - DE/DT
#29 opps.. same guy twice lol
#30 T J Yeldon - RB
#31 Ronald Darby - CB
#32 Kevin Johnson - CB
#33 Tre McBride - WR
#34 Eric Rowe - CB
#35 Quinten Rollins - CB
#36 Ty Sambrailo - OT
#37 Jordan Phillips - DT (my biggest snub)
#38 Jacquiski Tartt - SS
#39 Doran Grant - CB

Role Players

#40 Olomu - CB (IR'ed.. otherwise be higher)
#41 Josh Shaw - CB
#42 Max Valles - DE/OLB
#43 DeAndre Smelter - WR
#44 Dres Anderson - WR
#45 B.J. Finney - C/OG
#46 Ellis McCarthy - NT/DT
#47 D'Journ Smith - CB
#48 Kenny Bell - WR
#49 Tyrell Williams - WR
#50 Deon Smith - DT
#51 Ben Heeney - LB
#52 Mitch Morse - OG
#53 Jeremiah Poutasi - OG
#54 Miles Dieffenbach - OG* injured
#55 Taiwan Jones - LB

Still looking into later round guys to round this out. That is what I have so far though.

Great job Mayo. It is hard and I'm dreading doing mine. Obviously we view some prospects subjectively differently, I like Grady Jarrett and Carl Davis a lot more than you for example, but there a few grades that jumped out at me.

1. I think I'd have Brandon Scherff as my #2 overall behind Gurley. Plug him in at LG and not worry about the position for a decade.

2. As much as I hate to say it, I probably take Owa off my board. I still really like him but I think he's too similar to Sheard. Would be thrilled if BB sees differently and drafts him but I doubt it now.

3. Bud Dupree on the other hand. Whilst I don't think he's a finished product and might warrant the grade you have him, that explosion makes my mouth water - it's literally 'rare'. Can see him fitting at DE, OLB and even ILB like Collins. I'm going to find it hard to drop him, even as shallow as you have.

4. I don't see Tre Jackson there. Is that deliberate? Considering the interest shown by the Pats in the FSU OL, I think he needs to be a consideration.

5. You have RNR, Parry, Jamil Douglas and John Miller in amongst the practice squad group. Whilst I can see that, I hope thats too low. Those are four I want to be better than that.

manxman2601 said:

Great job Mayo. It is hard and I'm dreading doing mine. Obviously we view some prospects subjectively differently, I like Grady Jarrett and Carl Davis a lot more than you for example, but there a few grades that jumped out at me.

1. I think I'd have Brandon Scherff as my #2 overall behind Gurley. Plug him in at LG and not worry about the position for a decade.

2. As much as I hate to say it, I probably take Owa off my board. I still really like him but I think he's too similar to Sheard. Would be thrilled if BB sees differently and drafts him but I doubt it now.

3. Bud Dupree on the other hand. Whilst I don't think he's a finished product and might warrant the grade you have him, that explosion makes my mouth water - it's literally 'rare'. Can see him fitting at DE, OLB and even ILB like Collins. I'm going to find it hard to drop him, even as shallow as you have.

4. I don't see Tre Jackson there. Is that deliberate? Considering the interest shown by the Pats in the FSU OL, I think he needs to be a consideration.

5. You have RNR, Parry, Jamil Douglas and John Miller in amongst the practice squad group. Whilst I can see that, I hope thats too low. Those are four I want to be better than that.

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All very good points. I'm not at all satisfied with my effort, especially the back end. I struggled so many times that I decided it was better to get out something incomplete.

A couple of general comments:

1. I'm struggling with the concept of a "short" board. I can understand the benefits of limiting yourself, in terms of focusing on prospects who you think fit your system, and being able to maneuver more aggressively on draft day for those prospects. I think we tend to under-estimate how time-dependent the draft actually is, and that teams get flummoxed when the draft takes unexpected turns and then deviate from their plans. A short board can make it easier to maneuver. But you have to leave so many guys out. Do you leave out guys who could be great fits but who you think will be gone (Scherff, Dupree, Fowler)? Do you give short-shrift to positions where you think there is less room for rookies to contribute? How do you trade off long term developmental guys with upside vs. more developed players, given that you need to have a board which allows you to address all 7 rounds of the draft effectively? I don't know the answers to these questions, and I'd be very curious to see how the Pats actually do it.

2. My favorite players are not necessarily the highest ranked players on my board. Right now I think that Gurley and Marcus Peters are the two biggest potential impact players for the Pats. TJ Clemmings is probably my #3 in terms of potential impact. But I have Marcus Hardison, Ali Marpet and Eric Rowe as my next 3 favorite players, and I really like Davis Tull's upside. I can't see any of that group as immediate starters, but I like really like their long-term potential to be significant contributors. It wouldn't shock me at all if Marpet ends up being a better LG than Brandon Scherff, for example - he's much more athletic and has better movement skills - but he's not going to start as quickly.

On to your specific comments:

- Re Brandon Scherff, I struggled with whether to leave him on the board, as he looks like he'll go well before the Pats' range. Same with La'el Collins. I actually like TJ Clemmings, Ali Marpet and Jake Fisher the best of the OLs because of their athleticism and versatility. I'm torn on Scherff, personally. I love his toughness and physicality, and agree that he could step in and be an immediate starter. But he seems pretty stiff at times, and I wonder whether he's going to make as good a LG as someone like Marpet.

- I also struggled with whether to take Bud Dupree off, as I doubt he'll last past #20. But I think he has some really nice attributes in terms of his athleticism and explosiveness, though his combat skills are woefully lacking. I actually like Davis Tull a lot in that kind of role. He has similar explosiveness to Dupree, and he has reasonably decent combat skills from having played on the line.

- I'm not sure I thought of the last group as "practice squad". More like "developmental". I certainly don't claim to understand how the Pats' actually group them. I certainly lumped a bunch of guys together who I wasn't able to sort out, as a preliminary step. Again, I'm not very satisfied.

- I'm not very impressed with Tre Jackson, despite the Pats' apparent interested in FSU linemen. I just don't see the fit. He doesn't have the movement skills that I would like to see in an OL for the Pats.

mayoclinic said:

All very good points. I'm not at all satisfied with my effort, especially the back end. I struggled so many times that I decided it was better to get out something incomplete.

A couple of general comments:

1. I'm struggling with the concept of a "short" board. I can understand the benefits of limiting yourself, in terms of focusing on prospects who you think fit your system, and being able to maneuver more aggressively on draft day for those prospects. I think we tend to under-estimate how time-dependent the draft actually is, and that teams get flummoxed when the draft takes unexpected turns and then deviate from their plans. A short board can make it easier to maneuver. But you have to leave so many guys out. Do you leave out guys who could be great fits but who you think will be gone (Scherff, Dupree, Fowler)? Do you give short-shrift to positions where you think there is less room for rookies to contribute? How do you trade off long term developmental guys with upside vs. more developed players, given that you need to have a board which allows you to address all 7 rounds of the draft effectively? I don't know the answers to these questions, and I'd be very curious to see how the Pats actually do it.

2. My favorite players are not necessarily the highest ranked players on my board. Right now I think that Gurley and Marcus Peters are the two biggest potential impact players for the Pats. TJ Clemmings is probably my #3 in terms of potential impact. But I have Marcus Hardison, Ali Marpet and Eric Rowe as my next 3 favorite players, and I really like Davis Tull's upside. I can't see any of that group as immediate starters, but I like really like their long-term potential to be significant contributors. It wouldn't shock me at all if Marpet ends up being a better LG than Brandon Scherff, for example - he's much more athletic and has better movement skills - but he's not going to start as quickly.

On to your specific comments:

- Re Brandon Scherff, I struggled with whether to leave him on the board, as he looks like he'll go well before the Pats' range. Same with La'el Collins. I actually like TJ Clemmings, Ali Marpet and Jake Fisher the best of the OLs because of their athleticism and versatility. I'm torn on Scherff, personally. I love his toughness and physicality, and agree that he could step in and be an immediate starter. But he seems pretty stiff at times, and I wonder whether he's going to make as good a LG as someone like Marpet.

- I also struggled with whether to take Bud Dupree off, as I doubt he'll last past #20. But I think he has some really nice attributes in terms of his athleticism and explosiveness, though his combat skills are woefully lacking. I actually like Davis Tull a lot in that kind of role. He has similar explosiveness to Dupree, and he has reasonably decent combat skills from having played on the line.

- I'm not sure I thought of the last group as "practice squad". More like "developmental". I certainly don't claim to understand how the Pats' actually group them. I certainly lumped a bunch of guys together who I wasn't able to sort out, as a preliminary step. Again, I'm not very satisfied.

- I'm not very impressed with Tre Jackson, despite the Pats' apparent interested in FSU linemen. I just don't see the fit. He doesn't have the movement skills that I would like to see in an OL for the Pats.

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1. Fair enough on Tre Jackson - I can see that. It's going to be instructive as to what type of lineman they go for at LG this year.

2. Personally I think Scherff can be one of the best LGs in the NFL early in his career. He probably will be the first lineman taken so all this is moot.

If you read Patriot Reign, in the draft section, one of the grades is for prospects that they don't feel are Patriot type players so whilst the Patriot compatible board might be limited, I suspect prospects they deem not fit for the Patriots board are still graded separately. I suspect this is how Buchanan and Dennard were drafted. The Patriot board had been emptied and so they took the highest graded prospects from the non-Patriot board.

As for the Patriot board itself, I think the reason it's hard for us to cut it down is that the Patriots have much stricter criteria than we do. I noted in that thread about the Patriots draft philosophy that area scouts are given a criteria that they need to go looking for and as I said, I that's much stricter than the criteria we apply - it's also as much about intangibles as it is film or athleticism.

mayoclinic said:

I also struggled with whether to take Bud Dupree off, as I doubt he'll last past #20. But I think he has some really nice attributes in terms of his athleticism and explosiveness, though his combat skills are woefully lacking. I actually like Davis Tull a lot in that kind of role. He has similar explosiveness to Dupree, and he has reasonably decent combat skills from having played on the line.

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I said it in another thread but I feel Depree is going to be best used an a LB and not as an on the line rusher. I totally agree on his combat skills. His hand skill aren't just lacking they are nonexistent. His coverage skills are actually decent and with his speed and change of direction he can be effective. The real issue is in the running game. If he can't use his hands in the pros he'll end up 10 yards down field. Tedy used to use a similar turn the should and get under the lineman move from time to time but that's exactly what it needs to be, a change up of deception. Lineman who are looking for it will pancake him. I really don't think he's a 3 down player year one.

manxman2601 said:

Obviously we view some prospects subjectively differently, I like Grady Jarrett and Carl Davis a lot more than you for example.

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Re Davis, I recognize his talent, but his inconsistency and reported laziness scare the heck out of me.

Re Jarrett, I don't know what to make of him schematically. He's the anti-Davis: great tape, but I'm not sure how he projects. A NT with penetrating capability is a valuable asset, but I'm not sure Jarrett can ge more than a 1-gap 4-3 NT. Tyler Davison intrigues me more - better size, longer arms, lower draft stock. I judt haven't been able to place Jarrett, so I've left him out for now. But his tape is excellent.

manxman2601 said:

If you read Patriot Reign, in the draft section, one of the grades is for prospects that they don't feel are Patriot type players so whilst the Patriot compatible board might be limited, I suspect prospects they deem not fit for the Patriots board are still graded separately. I suspect this is how Buchanan and Dennard were drafted. The Patriot board had been emptied and so they took the highest graded prospects from the non-Patriot board.

As for the Patriot board itself, I think the reason it's hard for us to cut it down is that the Patriots have much stricter criteria than we do. I noted in that thread about the Patriots draft philosophy that area scouts are given a criteria that they need to go looking for and as I said, I that's much stricter than the criteria we apply - it's also as much about intangibles as it is film or athleticism.

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Where I haven't fallen in love with a lot of prospects this year it's actually been easier for me this year than most. It's also why I've started watching a lot of player interviews to try and just catch something the Pats might not like.

What's the first thing you'll do once you sign?

A. Buy a Bentley
B. Take my homies to Vegas.
C. How quickly can you get me the playbook?

Team captain, all scholastic and special teams play as well. I've always looked at them but the resources are getting better for this info every year for us armature hacks.

everlong said:

I said it in another thread but I feel Depree is going to be best used an a LB and not as an on the line rusher. I totally agree on his combat skills. His hand skill aren't just lacking they are nonexistent. His coverage skills are actually decent and with his speed and change of direction he can be effective. The real issue is in the running game. If he can't use his hands in the pros he'll end up 10 yards down field. Tedy used to use a similar turn the should and get under the lineman move from time to time but that's exactly what it needs to be, a change up of deception. Lineman who are looking for it will pancake him. I really don't think he's a 3 down player year one.

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I actually think Tull has much better edge setting and hand usage, and plays with better leverage.

mayoclinic said:

I actually think Tull has much better edge setting and hand usage, and plays with better leverage.

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I like Tull but he's shorter than Bill likes with shorter arms as well. I think he will probably end up an outside LB in a Steelers type of scheme.

mayoclinic said:

Re Davis, I recognize his talent, but his inconsistency and reported laziness scare the heck out of me.

Re Jarrett, I don't know what to make of him schematically. He's the anti-Davis: great tape, but I'm not sure how he projects. A NT with penetrating capability is a valuable asset, but I'm not sure Jarrett can ge more than a 1-gap 4-3 NT. Tyler Davison intrigues me more - better size, longer arms, lower draft stock. I judt haven't been able to place Jarrett, so I've left him out for now. But his tape is excellent.

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I'm not sure why people only see Jarrett as a potential NT, he can easily project to 3-tech. He's competition or backup to Easley and an improvement on Chris Jones.

manxman2601 said:

I'm not sure why people only see Jarrett as a potential NT, he can easily project to 3-tech. He's competition or backup to Easley and an improvement on Chris Jones.

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Maybe. But he's not nearly as gap-diverse as Easley or Hardison. He reminds me a bit of Timmy Jernigan. A day 2 pick is a bit rich for me for roster depth when I can get someone like Davison on day 3.

Again, you may easily be right. I just haven't figured him out yet to my own satisfaction.

This is why you draft Bud Dupree (in part)



When someone is as athletic as he is, you want to see it on tape. Obviously you do here.

everlong said:

I like Tull but he's shorter than Bill likes with shorter arms as well. I think he will probably end up an outside LB in a Steelers type of scheme.

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The short arms do concern me a bit.

mayoclinic said:

I actually think Tull has much better edge setting and hand usage, and plays with better leverage.

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Jethro Tull, i didn't think he played, will have to ask tune.

I knew somebody would make a boy and his flute joke.

mayoclinic said:

Maybe. But he's not nearly as gap-diverse as Easley or Hardison. He reminds me a bit of Timmy Jernigan. A day 2 pick is a bit rich for me for roster depth when I can get someone like Davison on day 3.

Again, you may easily be right. I just haven't figured him out yet to my own satisfaction.

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I had a second round grade on Easley, have a second round grade on Hardison and a third on Jarrett so I agree but I like Jarrett enough that I'd trade up in the third for him. If Harrison is off the board after 64, then I want Jarrett ahead of any other.

NB. I picked Jarrett ahead of Hardison in the CBS prediction thread because i'm not sure BB will like Garrett more than Hardison (just a hunch).

The thing about Hardison vs Jarrett is the positional flexibility. I think Jarrett has to play 3-tech or off nose in a 3-4 like the Chargers have in the past. I think Hardison can play 0, 1, 3 or 5 including playing DE if the Pats put out a jumbo DL against a big running team.

manxman2601 said:

I had a second round grade on Easley, have a second round grade on Hardison and a third on Jarrett so I agree but I like Jarrett enough that I'd trade up in the third for him. If Harrison is off the board after 64, then I want Jarrett ahead of any other.

NB. I picked Jarrett ahead of Hardison in the CBS prediction thread because i'm not sure BB will like Garrett more than Hardison (just a hunch).

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Auto-spellcheck is killing your post.

I considered Easley a top-5 defensive prospect last year, along with Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, Anthony Barr and Kyle Fuller (I was pretty open about not being a huge Clowney fan, and never bough into the Gilbert hype). So we had very different opinions on Easley.

I think Jarrett is probably a 3rd round talent, but he's not a Hardison alternative to me. JMHO.

everlong said:

The thing about Hardison vs Jarrett is the positional flexibility. I think Jarrett has to play 3-tech or off nose in a 3-4 like the Chargers have in the past. I think Hardison can play 0, 1, 3 or 5 including playing DE if the Pats put out a jumbo DL against a big running team.

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That's exactly it. Hardison, like Easley, can even play the 7 or 9 tech. They are the only guys with that kind of gap versatility. I think BB loves that kind of stuff - he was very vocal about it when he commented on the Easley selection last year.

mayoclinic said:

Auto-spellcheck is killing your post.

I considered Easley a top-5 defensive prospect last year, along with Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, Anthony Barr and Kyle Fuller (I was pretty open about not being a huge Clowney fan, and never bough into the Gilbert hype). So we had very different opinions on Easley.

I think Jarrett is probably a 3rd round talent, but he's not a Hardison alternative to me. JMHO.



That's exactly it. Hardison, like Easley, can even play the 7 or 9 tech. They are the only guys with that kind of gap versatility. I think BB loves that kind of stuff - he was very vocal about it when he commented on the Easley selection last year.

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What do you mean "killing your post"? I only missed one.

manxman2601 said:

What do you mean "killing your post"? I only missed one.

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Harrison/Hardison and Garrett/Jarrett. But I meant it tongue-in-cheek. Your post was fine, the autospell correction is just annoying. 90% of my spelling errors are due to the damn thing.