My Absurdly Early Pats' 2015 Draft Big Board

Marqui said:

Who's the best fit for the Pats at guard?

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dliverey said:

I think that Jamil Douglas would be a good fit as a LG and I love Laken Tomlinson as a RG.

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I agree that Jamil Douglas is a nice fit if you are looking for someone with LT feet to play the position.

Leaving aside Clemmings, Scherff and Collins, I would say that Cameron Erving is the "best fit". He's a very good run blocker, has LT feet and length, ideal size and having played LT and OC pretty much offers 5 position flexibility in theory.

My outside bet is Kansas' Darrian Miller who struggles at LT but impressed me as a zone run blocker in the Shrine game. His only downside is that he's sub 300lb.

I don't think we know enough about Googs' preferences to know what kind of LG "fit" he is looking for. He seems to prefer bigger linemen than Scar did. Brandon Scherff and Cam Erving come to mind, but it's really a guess right now.

mayoclinic said:

I don't think we know enough about Googs' preferences to know what kind of LG "fit" he is looking for. He seems to prefer bigger linemen than Scar did. Brandon Scherff and Cam Erving come to mind, but it's really a guess right now.

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I had a look back at OGs drafted by his teams when Googs was elsewhere. There wasn't enough data for a discernible pattern, but I noticed that he was at Miami when they drafted John Jerry He's a FA this year. I know he was embroiled in the Bullygare stuff and I can't comment as to how good an OG he was but I figured he might a FA possibility.

Robert Myers measured in at 6'5" 329# at the Senior Bowl. A guy to keep an eye on this week - I think he could be a good fit, but haven't been able to get enough film of him.

Really appreciate the work of you and Manx and others (OTG) etc in the draft section.

yopats said:

Really appreciate the work of you and Manx and others (OTG) etc in the draft section.

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I appreciate that. Thank you.

Hey mayo given BB relationship with Todd Graham what do you think about Jaleen Strong as our first pick.

yopats said:

Really appreciate the work of you and Manx and others (OTG) etc in the draft section.

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manxman2601 said:

I appreciate that. Thank you.

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As do I Sir. Brothers Manx and Mayo do the Heavy Lifting hereabouts. Honored to be included.

As a person who has been drowning in tape trying to put out reports and get my own rankings together, this is great work and I applaud you for your effort. I only skimmed the list and it looks like we agree on a lot of guys. The only name that we may differ on greatly is your #1 guy.
Again, great list and I appreciate the hard work you put into this.

midwestpatsfan said:

As a person who has been drowning in tape trying to put out reports and get my own rankings together, this is great work and I applaud you for your effort. I only skimmed the list and it looks like we agree on a lot of guys. The only name that we may differ on greatly is your #1 guy.
Again, great list and I appreciate the hard work you put into this.

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Thank you.

I'm not going to update my board until after the Combine, but there will certainly be some major changes. Noah Spence didn't declare, for one thing. Todd Gurley and Marcus Hardison will be risers. Gurley will probably be in Tier 1, and Hardison in Tier 3.

Bledsoehasaring said:

Hey mayo given BB relationship with Todd Graham what do you think about Jaleen Strong as our first pick.

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His relationship with a coach is not necessarily a guarantee that he'll draft players from that program, Florida and Rutgers notwithstanding.

As an example, Kirk Ferentz is definitely a Friend of Bill (Belichick hired his son Brian), but Belichick has never drafted an Iowa player.

Bledsoehasaring said:

Hey mayo given BB relationship with Todd Graham what do you think about Jaleen Strong as our first pick.

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ctpatsfan77 said:

His relationship with a coach is not necessarily a guarantee that he'll draft players from that program, Florida and Rutgers notwithstanding.

As an example, Kirk Ferentz is definitely a Friend of Bill (Belichick hired his son Brian), but Belichick has never drafted an Iowa player.

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I'm not a big fan of WR in the 1st and am not convinced that Jaelen Strong is worth a 1st round pick. I agree that there are no guarantees, but I think that BB having a relationship is one good way of getting players on his radar - not just players from that team, but players from other teams. I'm hoping that BB's relationship with Todd Graham is enough to put Marcus Hardison firmly on his radar. The rest is up to the prospect and the evaluation process.

I'm trying to re-do my short board. It will take a while, and there will be a lot of big name players discarded. The value of a short board is as a blueprint to maneuver in the draft, so you have to leave a bunch of guys out who you think aren't great fits or who will be overvalued relative to where you would take them. So no Amari Cooper, Kevin White or Danny Shelton for my board.

As a preliminary step, here are some non-traditional post combine thoughts:

First Round Options

Guys who I would be elated to get with #32:

- Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia. 6' 0 5/8" 222#. A luxury pick, but too good to pass up.
- Dante Fowler, EDGE, Florida. 6' 2 5/8" 261#. He'll go top 10, but he would be a great fit.
- Bud Dupree, EDGE, Kentucky. 6'4" 269#. He'll go top 15, but he would be a great fit. Collinsesque athleticism.
- Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida St. 6'4" 336#. That weight scares me a bit, but the closest thing I see in this draft to a VW replacement.
- TJ Clemmings, OL, Pittsburgh. 6' 4 3/4 309#. Will start at RT or LG, but potential future LT.
- Cam Erving, OL, Florida St. 6' 5 1/2" 313#. 5 position lineman with terrific athleticism and intangibles.

Binkies - My Guys

Guys who I really, really want, and will be bummed if we don't get them:

- Marcus Hardison, DT/DE, Arizona St. 6'3 1/8" 307#. My favorite player in the draft. Day 2 pick. Thanks, Manx.
- Ali Marpet, OL, Hobart. 6' 3 7/8" 307#. Day 2 pick. I think he could be a Joel Bitonio caliber player, though he's not as ready.
- DeAndre Smelter, WR, Georgia Tech. 6'2" 222#. Day 3 pick, but day 1 or 2 talent. Thanks again, Manx.

Day 2 Wild Cards

Guys who I have questions about in terms of medical, fit, development or other issues, but who I really like in some respects. I would love to get 1-2 of these guys on day 2 (or early day 3) in addition to Hardison and Marpet, but it would depend on where they are available. I would prefer not to take any of them in the 1st round, though a couple are trade back options if none of the 1st round guys listed above are available.

- Owamagbe Odighizuwa, EDGE, UCLA. 6' 3 1/2" 266#. The hip is a concern, but his game and athleticism are both superb.
- Danielle Hunter, EDGE, LSU. 6' 5 1/8" 252#. 4.57 40. Very fluid in space, but slow off the ball.
- Bernardrick McKinney, LB/EDGE, Mississippi St. 6' 4 1/8" 246#. Could be a poor man's Hightower.
- Shaq Thompson, LB/S, Washington. 6' 0 1/8" 228#. Great all-purpose weapon. Luxury pick.
- Henry Anderson, DE/DT, Stanford. 6' 6 1/4" 294#. Showed tremendous movement skills at the Combine, including a 7.20 3C and 4.19 SS.
- Mario Edwards, DE/DT, Florida St. 6' 2 5/8" 279#.
- Byron Jones, CB, UConn. 6' 0 1/2" 199#. The best DB measurables since Patrick Peterson. His tape is good, too. But not as good as his measurables.
- Jalen Collens, DB, LSU. 6' 1 1/2" 203#. 4.48 speed with a 6.77 3C. Great size and measurable, but reminds some of Ras-I Dowling.
- Eric Rowe, DB, Utah. 6' 0 3/4" 205#. 4.45 speed with a 6.7 3C and 39" VJ. Versatile DB who can be used to create mismatches.
- Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana. 5' 11" 206#.
- Cedric Ogbuehi, OL, Texas A&M. 6' 5" 306#. 35 7/8" arms. Coming off an ACL tear. Work ethic questions, but great upside.
- Jake Fisher, OL, Oregon. 6' 6 1/8" 303#. Most athletic OL at the Combine, with a 4.33 SS and 7.25 3C. Tape is excellent. Good positional versatility at both tackle spots and guard. Kyle Long II?
- AJ Cann, OG, South Carolina. 6'3" 303#. Solid plug and play LG. Lack of athleticism, upside and positional versatility are a concern, but solid player.

Day 3 Diamonds in the Rough

I like all of these guys. It all depends on finding values.

- David Johnson, RB, Northern Iowa. 6' 0 1/2" 224#. 4.50 speed, 41" VJ, 6.8 3C. Great receiving ability. Could be a late day 2 pick. A Vereen/AHern hybrid?
- Tre McBride, WR, William & Mary. 6' 0 1/4" 210#. 4.41 speed with a 1.51 10-split and 38" VJ. Excellent route runner and hands.
- Kenny Bell, WR, Nebraska. 6' 1 1/8" 197#. 4.42 speed, 6.66 3C, 41.5" VJ. Would also excel on STs.
- Nelson Agholor, WR, USC. 6' 0 198#. 4. 42 speed with a 1.53 10-split.
- Max Valles, EDGE, Virginia. 6' 4 1/2" 251#. He stunk at the Combine, but I'm still intrigued by his tape.
- Nick Marshall, QB/DB, Auburn. 6' 1 1/2" 207#. 4.54 40, 37.5" VJ, 6.96 3C, 4.15 SS at the Combine.
- Josh Shaw, DB, USC. 6' 0 1/2" 201#.
- Ellis McCarthy, DT, UCLA. 6' 4 1/2" 338#. His 5.21 40 and 32" VJ showed some explosiveness, but his 3C and SS were terrible. A project, but with some intriguing upside.
- Darren Waller, WR/TE, Georgia Tech. 6' 6 1/4" 238#. His 4.46 40, 1.58 10-split, 37" VJ and 7.07 3C were all competitive with Jimmy Graham and Jordan Cameron. I like him better than anyone in a pitiful TE class.

I also need to look at more film of Justin Cox, who could be the closest thing to a potential McCourty-like CB/S. Good athleticism, but questions about his character and instincts, so for now he's off my board.

I was surprised to not see Eli Harold on your list.

Coach42 said:

I was surprised to not see Eli Harold on your list.

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As I mentioned, working with a short board means leaving out good players that are questionable fits or who will likely go high than I would take them. Shane Ray, Vic Beasley and Eli Harold are all LEO types to me - 6'3" 245-250# OLB/sub rushers. I don't see that player type being the best fit for the Pats, and all 3 will probably go very high, so I'm leaving all off my short list for now (which is a good deal shorter than even a 75 man short board). Ray and Beasley will likely go top 20. I think there's a good chance Harold goes in the 20-40 range. I wouldn't spend a pick on him in that range. I had a 2nd round grade on him on my initial board, and he will likely have a place on the revised version, but he's not a focus for me. BB could obviously have a very different view.

Trying to do an updated short board, after free agency and the loss of Revis and Browner threw everything into turmoil.

I think that Patchick's basic formula for determining value is a good one: balancing positional value (a scarce, highly valued, expensive position leaguewide) with draft value (the talent likely to be available when they pick is worthy, and a significant cut above the talent likely to be available later) with roster value (given the current roster makeup, a position where a quality addition should represent a high-impact upgrade over the next couple of seasons).

I'm trying to organize this along rough guidelines suggested by Chris Price's article, which suggests that the Pats don't rank players by round:

http://itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports...n-most/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

As a very rough first pass, I'd try for something like this (ignoring players who seem like a lock to go top 15):

Tier 1: (elite prospects)

1. Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia. 6'1" 222#.* (Injured)
2. Marcus Peters, CB, Washington.* 6' 199#. (* Pending character evaluation)

Tier 2: (excellent fits with short-term starting/contributing in a major role and long-term Pro Bowl potential)

3. TJ Clemmings, OL, Pittsburgh. 6'5" 305#.
4. Byron Jones, CB, UConn. 6'1" 199#.
5. Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest. 6' 187#.
6. Brandon Scherff, OL, Iowa. 6'5" 320#.
7. Dante Fowler, EDGE, Florida. 6'2" 262#.
8. Cam Erving, OL, Florida St. 6'5" 313#.

Tier 3: (excellent fits with short-term contributing in a specific role and long term starting potential, with potential Pro Bowl upside)

9. Jalen Collins, CB, LSU.* 6'2" 202#. (Injured)
10. Marcus Hardison, DL, Arizona St. 6'3" 307#.
11. Ali Marpet, OL, Hobart. 6'4" 307#.
12. Jake Fisher, OL, Oregon. 6'6" 304#.
13. Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida St. 6'4" 336#.
14. Eric Rowe, CB, Utah. 6'1" 205#.
15. Bud Dupree, EDGE, Kentucky. 6'4" 269#.
16. Owamagbe Odighizuwa, EDGE, UCLA.
17. La'el Collins, OL, LSU. 6'5" 304#.
18. Malcolm Brown, DT, Texas. 6'2" 319#.
19. Bernardrick McKinney, LB/EDGE, Mississippi St. 6'5" 249#.
20. Shaq Thompson, LB/S, Washington. 6'1" 232#.
21. PJ Williams, CB, Florida St. 6' 200#.
22. Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana. 5'11" 210#.

Tier 4: (moderate fits with short-term contributing in a specific role and long term starting potential, with upside)

23. Eric Kendricks, Off-LOS LB, UCLA. 6' 230#.
24. Jay Ajayi, RB, Boise St. 6' 220#.
25. David Johnson, RB, Iowa St. 6' 224#.
26. DeAndre Smelter, WR, Georgia Tech.* 6'2" 222#. (* Injured, likely PUP/IR for 2015)
27. DJ Humphries, OL, Florida. 6'5" 305#.
28. Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M.* 6'5" 305. (*Injured, likely PUP/IR for 2015)
29. Donovan Smith, OL, Penn St. 6'6" 339#.

Tier 5: (moderate fits with short-term contributing in a specific role and long term starting potential)

30. Danny Shelton, DT, Washington. 6'2" 334#.
31. Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma. 6'5" 329#.
32. Carl Davis, DT, Iowa. 6'5" 320#.
33. Danielle Hunter, EDGE, LSU. 6'6" 240#.
34. AJ Cann, OG, South Carolina. 6'3" 311#.
35. Arik Armstead, DT/DE, Oregon. 6'7" 292#.
36. Davis Tull, EDGE, Tennessee-Chattanooga.* 6'2" 246#. (* Injured)

Tier 6: (prospects with solid backup/rotational and long term starting potential)

37. Alex Carter, CB, Stanford. 6' 200#.
38. Quinten Rollins, CB, Miami (OH). 5'11" 200#.
39. Josh Shaw, CB, USC. 6' 200#.
40. Tre McBride, WR, William & Mary. 6'1" 205#.
41. Ty Sambrailo, OL, Colorado St . 6'5" 315#.
42. Paul Dawson, LB, TCU. 6'2" 230#.
43. Laken Tomlinson, OG, Duke. 6'3" 320#.
44. Preston Smith, EDGE, Mississippi St.
45. Jacquiski Tartt, S, Samford. 6'1" 218#.
46. Cody Prewitt, S, Mississippi. 6'2" 217#.

Tier 7: (developmental prospects with long-term potential to be significant contributors )

47. Max Valles, EDGE, Virginia. 6'5" 240#.
48. Ben Heeney, Off-LOS LB, Kasnas.
49. Mario Edwards, DE/DT, Florida St. 6'3" 278#.
50. Anthony Chikillo, EDGE, Miami.
51. Leterrius Walton, DT, Central Michigan. 6'5" 319#.
52. Tyeler Davison, DT, Fresno St. 6'2" 316#.
53. Nick Marshall, CB, Auburn. 6'1" 205#.
54. Chris Conley, WR/DE, Georgia. 6'2" 213#.
55. Kenny Bell, WR, Nebraska. 6'1" 200#/
56. Eli Harold, EDGE, Virginia. 6'4" 240#.
57. Ha'oli Kikaha, EDGE, Washington. 6'2" 243#.
58. David Cobb, RB, Minnesota. 5'11" 229#.
59. Jacoby Glenn, CB, UCF. 6' 187#.

Tier 8: (developmental prospects with the ability to compete for a roster spot)

60. David Parry, DT, Stanford. 6'1" 308#.
61. Deon Simon, DT, Northwestern St. 6'4" 321#.
62. Rakeem Nunez-Rochez, DT, Southern Mississippi. 6'2" 307#.
63. Damian Swann, CB, Georgia 6' 190#.
64. Jamil Douglas, OL, Arizona St. 6'4" 307#.
65. Robert Myles, OL, Tennessee St. 6'5" 310#.
66. Jarvis Harrison, OG, Texas A&M. 6'3" 320#.
67. Bobby Hart, OL Florida St. 6'4" 339#.
68. John Miller, OG, Louisville, 6'2" 321#.
69. Shaq Mason, OL, Gerogia Tech. 6'1" 303#.
70. Jeremiah Poutasi, OL, Utah. 6'6" 320#.
71. Obum Gwacham, EDGE, Oregon St. 6'5" 246#.
72. Ellis McCarthy, DT, UCLA. 6'5" 338#.
73. Justin Cox, DB, Mississippi St. 6'1" 200#.
74. Cassius Sendish, S, Kansas. 5'11" 196#.
75. Terry Williams, DT, East Carolina. 6'1" 329#.
76. Tray Walker, CB, Texas Southern. 6'2" 195#.

This is really, really rough, and should be regarded as a work in progress. Rankings within the later tier are very crude. Again, this is a Pats-specific big board, not a general ranking of players. This list undoubtedly leaves out a lot of good prospects, and probably some people's binkies. It's the nature of a "short board" to do so. I've tried to deliberately keep this board short, and to restrict it to guys who I thought would be good fits. There are some guys I've left out just because I can't decide yet if/where they fit (Grady Jarrett, Henry Anderson, Ronald Darby, Steve Nelson), and some guys who I've left in who I may take off the board altogether. There are probably a couple of big omissions that I just overlooked, too.

Like this list alot and agree on most if it, you ignored WRs? Not that I think BB picks a WR, but leaveing out DGB etc is a mistake, the value simply could be to good to pass.
Reason behind Fowler and not Gregory or Ray? They have as good of a chance to slip as Fowler.
Ronald Darby is hard to evaluate, but the more I find and see, they more I beleave this guy is a "shutdown" corner. I know he lacks the size vs others, but Revis isnt much bigger AND the role for Darby would be simulary to Revis, Lock Down the second option. We have to remmeber how BB uses those Guys and a CB1 for Patriots offen cover WR2. Where CB2 has Safety help. And if thats the role BB needs, then Darby might be the best option in this draft.

As much as I love the draft talk, have to admit no idea how all you guys do any of this.. too many players and too much information for me to process...

I enjoy what you do, but cannot comprehend how you process all of this info meaningful information.

Kudo's to all of the draft prognosticators..

Luxusdk said:

Like this list alot and agree on most if it, you ignored WRs? Not that I think BB picks a WR, but leaveing out DGB etc is a mistake, the value simply could be to good to pass.
Reason behind Fowler and not Gregory or Ray? They have as good of a chance to slip as Fowler.
Ronald Darby is hard to evaluate, but the more I find and see, they more I beleave this guy is a "shutdown" corner. I know he lacks the size vs others, but Revis isnt much bigger AND the role for Darby would be simulary to Revis, Lock Down the second option. We have to remmeber how BB uses those Guys and a CB1 for Patriots offen cover WR2. Where CB2 has Safety help. And if thats the role BB needs, then Darby might be the best option in this draft.

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It's a short board, so by definition I'm leaving out tons of potential picks, especially at positions that I didn't prioritize. I had 4 WRs: DeAndre Smelter, Tre McBride, Chris Conley and Kenny Bell. I took off all TEs from my nte first cut.

Dante Fowler should probably be removed. He'll go much higher than I would take him. Ditto Shane Ray and Randy Gregory, neither of whom I consider a good fit. Both would probably go in my "Tier 5".

I'm not at all happy with this version. But after struggling several times and giving up, I wanted to get a first pass out. I'll try to tweak it.

mayoclinic said:

It's a short board, so by definition I'm leaving out tons of potential picks, especially at positions that I didn't prioritize. I had 4 WRs: DeAndre Smelter, Tre McBride, Chris Conley and Kenny Bell. I took off all TEs from my nte first cut.

Dante Fowler should probably be removed. He'll go much higher than I would take him. Ditto Shane Ray and Randy Gregory, neither of whom I consider a good fit. Both would probably go in my "Tier 5".

I'm not at all happy with this version. But after struggling several times and giving up, I wanted to get a first pass out. I'll try to tweak it.

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I liked it Mayo. Obviously no one is going to fully agree. I will add this though. The Pats (in a story you probably read as well) only rate players in 4 tiers

Starter, Potential starter, role player, project (though I think it is fair to say their are probably look at starter in 2 tiers... impactful and normal though they would probably never admit that). I would say if you do this again and want to do it as close to the how the Pats do it as possible keep it to 4 to 5 tiers.