The 3-Pick Plan: CB, DT, OL?

I thought we would go 5-tech de and edge rusher in 2011. We went T, CB, RB, QB and RB.

Wouldn't be shocked if we trade down. Pick someone like Erving. Maybe, BB has Abdullah higher than any cb's and we take him at 64. Board goes ****oo when we take someone like Lockett with the pick we got for trading back.

Getcha popcorn ready.

After trying to start a couple of mock drafts I've come to peace with just sitting back and letting the draft fall to us. I think everyone (fans, media, draft analysts) get too caught up in needs when predicting the draft and inevitably teams shock and surprise us with their picks. So I'm happy to sit back and take advantage of the best players on the board instead of specifically trying to fill needs. There is going to be someone there at #32 that nobody expects to be there right now and I want to be flexible enough to take advantage of that, either by taking that player or trading down.

Wilfork#75 said:

After trying to start a couple of mock drafts I've come to peace with just sitting back and letting the draft fall to us. I think everyone (fans, media, draft analysts) get too caught up in needs when predicting the draft and inevitably teams shock and surprise us with their picks. So I'm happy to sit back and take advantage of the best players on the board instead of specifically trying to fill needs. There is going to be someone there at #32 that nobody expects to be there right now and I want to be flexible enough to take advantage of that, either by taking that player or trading down.

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No one is suggestion making a trade before draft day. So, everyone is willing to flexible enough to see who is available as we get within range of our picks (say Pick 20). We might make our first pick at 20, at 32 or 52, or anywhere in between. I would call this approach "flexible". I would not use that label for an approach that restricts us to who is available at 32.

FWIW, this is how found myself focusing on CB as the first pick:

It's the best meeting point of positional value (a scarce, highly valued, expensive position leaguewide) with draft value (the talent likely to be available when they pick is worthy, and a significant cut above the talent likely to be available later) with roster value (given the current roster makeup, a position where a quality addition should represent a high-impact upgrade over the next couple of seasons).

Positions like QB, TE, DE and LB fail on roster-specific value. WR, RB and S are all questionable on at least 2 of the measures. That leaves DT, OL and CB.

The DTs typically being discussed at #32 are Eddie Goldman, Jordan Phillips and Carl Davis. To me, Goldman is shaky on positional and roster value, and Davis and (especially) Phillips on draft value. OL comes closer: excellent roster value, good draft value, moderate positional value (which jumps to high if you're looking at a potential future LT). But CB still rates higher overall to me, assuming one of Peters, Johnson and Jones is available.

Of course, if an outstanding talent at another position falls, their draft value can trump all of the above.

patfanken said:

I found it odd that before Revis left, CB wasn't even a consideration for this draft, and now suddenly it has become "must have".

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It might've had a little something to do with the "Revis left" bit.

And considering that Browner departed as well ~ that's 2 Starting CornerBacks, by my count, including one SuperStar!! ~ I would've considered it pretty odd if there wasn't a sudden interest in CornerBacks!!

patchick said:

FWIW, this is how found myself focusing on CB as the first pick:

It's the best meeting point of positional value (a scarce, highly valued, expensive position leaguewide) with draft value (the talent likely to be available when they pick is worthy, and a significant cut above the talent likely to be available later) with roster value (given the current roster makeup, a position where a quality addition should represent a high-impact upgrade over the next couple of seasons).

Positions like QB, TE, DE and LB fail on roster-specific value. WR, RB and S are all questionable on at least 2 of the measures. That leaves DT, OL and CB.

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I think that's a good rationale. EDGE is a good example. EDGE has high positional value - pass rushers are vitally important. Guys like Bud Dupree and Owamagbe Odighizuwa are excellent prospects - their draft value hasn't changed, and either is well worth the #32 pick in general. But the roster value for the Pats of an EDGE player has changed considerably with the signing of Jabaal Sheard (whose skill set is extremely similar to Odighizuwa's). With Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins and Sheard all under contract through 2016 (assuming a 5th year option for Jones and Hightower), it's hard to imagine that either would be a "high impact upgrade over the next couple of seasons". A year or two from now could be quite different, depending on how things work out with that group. But not this year, unless as a developmental day 3 prospect 0 or unless the value is just too good to pass up (see below).

patchick said:

Of course, if an outstanding talent at another position falls, their draft value can trump all of the above.

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Exactly. Todd Gurley is a good example. RB is low in positional value and medium-low in roster value, but Gurley has such a high draft value that he would still be a very good pick at #32 if he slips.

Don't sleep on WR: the 2014 class brought some Pro Ready young WR's in this league with the potential to be great down the road. This 2015 WR class might be a notch below that class but that within itself says something. I think CB/WR or vise/versa will be our First Two selctions. DT and OL could be easily add easily in the Third and Fourth Rounds.

PatsFan2 said:

Don't sleep on WR: the 2014 class brought some Pro Ready young WR's in this league with the potential to be great down the road. This 2015 WR class might be a notch below that class but that within itself says something. I think CB/WR or vise/versa will be our First Two selctions. DT and OL could be easily add easily in the Third and Fourth Rounds.

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I don't see that. I do like this WR class, and I like the depth. DeAndre Smelter, Chris Conley and Kenny Bell could all be great day 3 picks.

Let's not forget that last year we had a huge need for a Center and OL in general and BB addressed only in the 4th round, not because they didn't like the 1st and 2nd round prospects but because their guy was Stork from the beginning.

So BB has a specific approach for OL and his success in this area backs him up. Dave Deguglielmo now has 1 full year in the system and we will have Scar's help in the process. So I think O-line is the area that needs more attention right now and looking into the future due to Solder's uncertainty, more than DT and CB, it will all depend on who their guys are, if again they are guys that are expected to be available in the 3rd or 4rd round then BB will not pull the trigger earlier, if they are looking for one of the top prospects though then it can be our first round pick or even a trade up. My point is that OLine and their prospects will dictate how the rest of the draft will unfold for us.

patchick said:

CB
Kevin Johnson
Byron Jones
Marcus Peters

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Johnson and Jones both play off-man coverage well. Jones is by far the more aggressive to the ball and is very good with the ball in front of him. Both play the deep route well in both man and off-man. Where they both struggle is the intermediate routes where the receiver turns it in or out. They don't flip quick enough which probably is coaching and technique along with not over committing to a route. Jones plays with more confidence.

Peters is far better in press man than either of the above but he's not as good as either in off-man. I wonder if he'll take a Keenan Allen slide and possibly could be around at 64. I know, no way but guys like Hernandez and Allen were first round talents too.

I also think Jones is the best tackler.

I'm not sure any of them are a first round value. Peters would be if not for the character questions.

patchick said:

In another thread today, I wrote:


Beyond that I have some positional preferences, but I can imagine the draft unfolding in a variety of ways.

Below is my list of preferred prospects for each of the three top target positions, in alphabetical order. (Obviously, feel free to improve on my suggestions!) What I'm pondering is, assuming you want to walk away with a player from every list, what's the best strategy for achieving that? E.g., is a first pick at CB simply a necessity?

CB
Kevin Johnson
Byron Jones
Marcus Peters

DT
Malcolm Brown
Carl Davis
Marcus Hardison
and maybe Grady Jarrett

OL
T.J. Clemmings
La'el Collins
Cameron Erving
Jake Fisher
D.J. Humphries
Ali Marpet
and maybe Cedric Ogbuehi, Donovan Smith

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I agree with the positions. Go for the BPA in all those positions. After much research and debate, I have settled on Jalen Collins at CB if he is there. I like Hardison at DT and he should be around at #64.
After that there will be a host of OG's that will be available at 96,97, and 101.
I consider OG to be a priority. We need to draft 2. Marpet is one of the OG's that I would take that you listed. There are 2 Florida St guards that I would consider and Thominson of Duke. There are a couple of OT's that project to G with the kid from Utah being the better one unless the OT from Iowa takes a nose dive and is a #32 ( I doubt it).

Before we draft a second guard. I'd be curious to know if BB thinks Cam Fleming can play RG or not. If he's going to play RG, only need one guard until late rounds.

varjao said:

Let's not forget that last year we had a huge need for a Center and OL in general and BB addressed only in the 4th round, not because they didn't like the 1st and 2nd round prospects but because their guy was Stork from the beginning.

So BB has a specific approach for OL and his success in this area backs him up. Dave Deguglielmo now has 1 full year in the system and we will have Scar's help in the process. So I think O-line is the area that needs more attention right now and looking into the future due to Solder's uncertainty, more than DT and CB, it will all depend on who their guys are, if again they are guys that are expected to be available in the 3rd or 4rd round then BB will not pull the trigger earlier, if they are looking for one of the top prospects though then it can be our first round pick or even a trade up. My point is that OLine and their prospects will dictate how the rest of the draft will unfold for us.

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We don't know what grades the Pats had on guys who they didn't take. I suspect they had very high grades on both Zach Martin and Joel Bitonio. Martin was out of reach, and they obviously preferred Easley to Bitonio at 29. Stork certainly seems to have been their target at center, though BB said that he gave very serious consideration to other guys, notably Corey Linsley.

I do agree in general that who the Pats like at OL - like many other positions - may not follow the expected prospect rankings.

Off The Grid said:

It might've had a little something to do with the "Revis left" bit.

And considering that Browner departed as well ~ that's 2 Starting CornerBacks, by my count, including SuperStar!! ~ I would've considered it pretty odd if there wasn't a sudden interest in CornerBacks!!

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Yeah, I know. I too have a "keen sense of the obvious", But unlike last season, IS there anyone out there in FA or the draft that could be there when we pick, that gets you the least bit excited at the CB position.

I think we did the best we could in FA. Both Fletcher and Chikwa are 6' physical guys who are coming off injuries or a bad year. They both have more than decent measurables . I'm hoping Fletcher will be another Chung like redemption project, because the reviews on him were worse than with Fletcher. Clearly Chip had a problem with his secondary personnel as well as the people coaching them. As all the 2ndary staff has been fired

So based on what was out there, I thought we did OK. Here's what I need to know Grid, who are the CB's that YOU think can come in an upgrade this secondary. Who are the guys that might be there at 32 or who are the tall sleepers that might be keepers down the road. Ya know we gotta keep pace with those big WR's

patfanken said:

Yeah, I know. I too have a "keen sense of the obvious", But unlike last season, IS there anyone out there in FA or the draft that could be there when we pick, that gets you the least bit excited at the CB position.

I think we did the best we could in FA. Both Fletcher and Chikwa are 6' physical guys who are coming off injuries or a bad year. They both have more than decent measurables . I'm hoping Fletcher will be another Chung like redemption project, because the reviews on him were worse than with Fletcher. Clearly Chip had a problem with his secondary personnel as well as the people coaching them. As all the 2ndary staff has been fired

So based on what was out there, I thought we did OK. Here's what I need to know Grid, who are the CB's that YOU think can come in an upgrade this secondary. Who are the guys that might be there at 32 or who are the tall sleepers that might be keepers down the road. Ya know we gotta keep pace with those big WR's

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Sorry to disappoint, Brother Ken, but I haven't reached the CornerBacks, yet.

I might hit the first Level of'm as early as this Weekend, but probably not until next week.

That's actually the Good News, though: Nobody gets Defensive Back worse than I!!

I know Byron Jones had a great combine but I'm not really comfortable taking him at 32, granted a lot of that is because I don't really know anything about him. Honestly the realistic player I want more than anyone else at 32 is Cann.

It's a complete waste to spend a first round draft pick on a two down defensive tackle in a pass happy NFL. The New England Patriots can get by with a nose tackle by committee approach (Branch, Siliga, Johnson) for the 2015 NFL Season.

http://www.patriots.com/team/roster

You don't lose two starting cornerbacks and wait until the 64th overall pick to address the issue in lieu of a nose tackle.

I'm fairly certain our first pick will be CB, LB, WR or *gasp* Safety! If I were to rank them in order of likeliness based on how the board plays out I would go LB, Safety, WR, CB. I just don't think the right CB is going to be there on draft day.

I agree on the need at CB but going hard on need at the end of the 1st round is just incredibly short sighted. A first round pick is a player you can keep for potentially five years. You could fix CB either the very next year during free agency again or during camp when teams start axing their vets.

VrabelJr said:

I'm fairly certain our first pick will be CB, LB, WR or *gasp* Safety! If I were to rank them in order of likeliness based on how the board plays out I would go LB, Safety, WR, CB. I just don't think the right CB is going to be there on draft day.

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And you think the right safety is? This is an incredibly weak safety class, and there is no safety remotely worth taking at 32.

VrabelJr said:

I agree on the need at CB but going hard on need at the end of the 1st round is just incredibly short sighted. A first round pick is a player you can keep for potentially five years. You could fix CB either the very next year during free agency again or during camp when teams start axing their vets.

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You should never go "hard on need at the end of the 1st round". Either you view one of the CB prospects on the board as worthy of the pick, or you don't take a CB at that spot. Reaching would be "incredibly short sighted", as you note.

mayoclinic said:

And you think the right safety is? This is an incredibly weak safety class, and there is no safety remotely worth taking at 32.

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Have to agree with Mayo here: the reason nobody's talking about safeties is that there aren't any worth talking about. My guess is the only way we see more than one safety drafted in the top two rounds is if you reclassify Shaq Thompson as a SS.