Reiss expects Pats to be fined-deflategate? No farking way

BradyManny said:

I think the league wants to fine us for PR reason to salvage this mess, but as they sought out actual scientists who might present them with a perfectly good explanation, they might be left with no choice.

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I'll come back to what I've said in other posts -- IMHO the language in the NFL's statement back in January (when they announced Wells) made it pretty clear they view this as a "strict liability" thing -- if the ball is underpressure during the game -- for whatever reason -- it is a violation of Rule 2 Section 1. And someone in this thread made another good point -- the ball guy taking the balls into the bathroom is another place where Goodell could claim that something happened that wasn't supposed to happen (not that the guy tampered with the balls in there, but that he simply shouldn't have brought them in there).

So the door is wide open for Goodell to say "We were unable to find any evidence of tampering with the footballs. However, N footballs were measured at halftime and found to be less than 12.5 PSI. Therefore we will be fining NE $25,000 for a violation of Rule 2, Section 1."

I expect them to either find that weather was totally responsible, or that the refs did something wrong and the Patriots will be totally exonerated. I do not believe that the league will manipulate reality to get some kind of result that is unfavorable to the Patriots because they are out to get us, or that Ted Wells is a dishonest shill who will lie in his investigation. I actually expect Wells investigation to be very critical of the league and the way they handled it.

SacPete1 said:

Very confusing analysis by Reiss who is usually methodical. He states that the league likely won't find evidence of deliberate tampering but will need to levy some penalty for the fact that footballs were used that were proven to be underinflated.

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Why is that even remotely confusing? It makes perfect sense given how Goodell and the league operates.

For those who are concerned that any fine gives opposing teams' fans more ammunition against the Pats, I agree. However, don't think for a second that if the Pats are exonerated that these same people will admit they were wrong. They will drone on how the Patriots always get away with stuff like this (provide no examples of what the Patriots get away wit) because they are a "legacy" franchise. People's minds are already made up, I hope the Patriots are dealt with fairly, but either way there will be no stopping the haters. So I am trying to just embrace it, but it is not easy for me.

rlcarr said:

So the door is wide open for Goodell to say "We were unable to find any evidence of tampering with the footballs. However, N footballs were measured at halftime and found to be less than 12.5 PSI. Therefore we will be fining NE $25,000 for a violation of Rule 2, Section 1."

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And again, I think you might be right. But I think it becomes a lot more difficult to do that if, let's say Columbia runs several experiments and sees 1-2 PSI drops in each, like HeadSmart.

And I agree with you about the league's initial wording - but remember, that was fresh off of Vincent's "2-3 days" stuff when they clearly thought the Patriots were guilty and they had no intention of looking into the science of it. They hired Wells, THEN Belichick gave them his science lecture, THEN Wells shot off an email to Columbia. Here we are 2 full months later, so a lot could have changed.

And look at Goodell's wording yesterday talking about if the "league" did anything wrong. Put me in the camp that is starting to gain hope that this whole things falls on Kensil & Grigson for a) not taking it up the chain of command b) not knowing what they were doing when they stuck a needle in those things at half-time.

BradyManny said:

Reiss, like the bulk of mediots, has never even mentioned or thought of the science of it, so he's not looking at it from the right perspective. They can't punish us if their scientific experiments suggest the balls depressurized naturally.

I think Reiss' instincts - that the league wants to punish us so as to avoid the embarrassment of wasting time & money on this whole thing - are correct, though.

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Yah a bit disappointing that well respected Reiss he has not alluded to the Temperature Pressure relationship while opining on the issue.

As an engineer who made the first post here alluding to PV=nRT I find it incomprehensible that the league with near infinite resources couldn't figure this simple thing out in LESS time than a busy BB preparing for the playoffs did in his "spare" time. So the only 2 things holding this up are (1) machinations to figure out a way to screw the Patriots despite physics and no evidence or (2) figuring out how to handle a league office scandal also involving at least the GM of the Colts.

BradyManny said:

And look at Goodell's wording yesterday talking about if the "league" did anything wrong. Put me in the camp that is starting to gain hope that this whole things falls on Kensil & Grigson for a) not taking it up the chain of command b) not knowing what they were doing when they stuck a needle in those things at half-time.

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I hope you're right!!

I hate to say it. But I can see us getting a small fine even if they can't prove it was anything intentional. It would bother me. And it'll bother me even more if Kraft doesn't fight it. Although I could see it just in the name of not making waves. It would seriously suck because it would give the hater conspiracy theorists something to hang on to.

But I think of it like a routine fine for an equipment violation that players get all the time. Like a sock isn't pulled up high enough, a shoe is left untied, or something equally ridiculous. The league doesn't have to prove HOW the sock got pulled down or shoe came untied. They don't have to prove it was an intentional act. The cause of the sock or shoe being off could be due to something that routinely happens in the course of a game. The equipment just has to be out of spec and you get fined.

But I do predict that behind the scenes Kraft will insist Kensil gets canned or reassigned.

Brady6 said:

I actually like Reiss and enjoy reading his publications but his being correct rate is south of 20%.

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Reiss is a far better reporter than he is an analyst. He's likable, and usually has good information, but when he attempts analysis, he's out of his depth. However, at least he seems to like the team he is paid to cover, unlike the vast majority of sports writers who cover Boston teams.

The Boston Patriot said:

I said it before and it isn't something that we don't all know, but Kraft is an NFL toady and he will go along to get along. I love RK, but I'm not expecting a Custer's last stand scenario from the organization if Goddell decides to screw them over.

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Felger is that you?

The Gr8est said:

Look at other teams messageboard and see how fans are already slapping the cheater charge on the Pats for under-inflating footballs.

Accepting ANY fine just gives weight to their charges.

If there is no smoking gun the Pats cannot accept any punishment.

We took one for the league during CameraPlacementGate to our detriment, we cannot do that again.

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Agree completely. If the league fines the Patriots for deflategate and doesn't give a high pick from the Jets then I will have to agree with the most cynical poster's here that the league is simply out to get them and doesn't use logic or require proof in any issue to sanction them.

I'm of the belief that the league will find no wrongdoing on the part of the Patriots and will fire Kensil and change league protocols for handling game balls. I also believe the league will find the Jets guilty of tampering with Revis and the Patriots will get either their first or second round pick as the sanction. We will see?

Peachhead said:

But I think of it like a routine fine for an equipment violation that players get all the time. Like a sock isn't pulled up high enough, a shoe is left untied, or something equally ridiculous. The league doesn't have to prove HOW the sock got pulled down or shoe came untied. They don't have to prove it was an intentional act. The cause of the sock or shoe being off could be due to something that routinely happens in the course of a game. The equipment just has to be out of spec and you get fined.

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Exactly. An equipment violation is the exact analogy I think the NFL will use if they fine NE.

From your fingertips to Goodell's eyes, Ivan

PatsWickedPissah said:

Yah a bit disappointing that well respected Reiss he has not alluded to the Temperature Pressure relationship while opining on the issue.

As an engineer who made the first post here alluding to PV=nRT I find it incomprehensible that the league with near infinite resources couldn't figure this simple thing out in LESS time than a busy BB preparing for the playoffs did in his "spare" time.

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I'll give Reiss a bit of pass as he's been very responsible about the whole thing otherwise. For whatever reason, the mediots find the natural depressurization angle either boring, inaccessible, or both.

The league might have near infinite resources, but consider the people involved at the onset - the principle figure was likely Kensil, and it's clear to see why he would have an agenda. Again, the thing that gives me the greatest hope in our favor is the time table. The fact that they didn't contact Columbia until the first business day after Belichick ripped them a new one suggests they were ignorant from the getgo, and now - HOPEFULLY - have been informed.

As long as Goodell has somewhere to swing his hammer, we should be OK. Kensil may have offered himself up for sacrifice by botching how this thing was handled in the start. I hate to admit it, but Sharks Of Vegas may actually have not been Erika Leigh-ing us this whole time. I dunno.

Calhoun44 said:

For those who are concerned that any fine gives opposing teams' fans more ammunition against the Pats, I agree. However, don't think for a second that if the Pats are exonerated that these same people will admit they were wrong. They will drone on how the Patriots always get away with stuff like this (provide no examples of what the Patriots get away wit) because they are a "legacy" franchise. People's minds are already made up, I hope the Patriots are dealt with fairly, but either way there will be no stopping the haters. So I am trying to just embrace it, but it is not easy for me.

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I honestly don't give one sh.t about what opposing fans or agenda driven media think anymore, all of them will get both middle fingers in response to any of their garbage. I'm hoping logic and science prevail but will wait on the outcomes and see where they stand. There's really only two things I can do as a fan, one is to stop buying good from the NFL and I have already done that and won't be buying anything anymore. The other is to stop watching football altogether, and while I haven't reached that point yet it's not as far fetched as it once was and is really much more likely than I ever thought it would be. At one point I was a big baseball fan, I always played growing up and both watched and listened to it, now I don't do either and doubt I every will again, and if the NFL continues on its current path then I can definitely see myself doing the same with football.

IN before someone whines to the mods and gets this thread cast into oblivion in the Deflategate desert

They'd be holding NE to a standard DIFFERENT than any other team ever. THey've never measured pressure in any other balls at any time. And high school science would tell you that frequently, other teams' balls would have been under pressure as well. So how is that fair?

Plus it would imply that there must have been something amiss in what the patriots did...even though they actually did nothing wrong whatsoever.

Is that what the league wants to put forth? More conspiracy theories and further smearing of one of their elite teams? They did nothing wrong but the league is going to tar them so that the casual observer thinks they must have? This makes sense?

As far as I know, the rulebook says the balls should be presented and have the right pressure PRE GAME, but that's IT. It doesn't state what happens to the pressure during the game due to natural factors and whether that is a violation of the rules. It doesn't even contemplate balls losing pressure during a game.

I became "relatively" convinced that the Patriots will face some type of punishment when Goodell started talking about the sanctity of rules and protecting the "other 31 clubs" and stating that whether an advantage was gained is irrelevant.

IMO their logic will be "we found deflation." It happened somehow, with maybe weather contributing to some degree, etc... but the end result was a non-conforming ball and therefore, NFL fines you to make sure that there's no temptation to cut things close ever (buying into the media's inaccurate portrayal of the Patriots as corner cutters.)

Calhoun44 said:

For those who are concerned that any fine gives opposing teams' fans more ammunition against the Pats, I agree. However, don't think for a second that if the Pats are exonerated that these same people will admit they were wrong. They will drone on how the Patriots always get away with stuff like this (provide no examples of what the Patriots get away wit) because they are a "legacy" franchise. People's minds are already made up, I hope the Patriots are dealt with fairly, but either way there will be no stopping the haters. So I am trying to just embrace it, but it is not easy for me.

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People think we have it easy because we're fans of the greatest team in the NFL. It's more difficult than all of those losers think it is.

Ivan said:

I honestly don't give one sh.t about what opposing fans or agenda driven media think anymore, all of them will get both middle fingers in response to any of their garbage. I'm hoping logic and science prevail but will wait on the outcomes and see where they stand. There's really only two things I can do as a fan, one is to stop buying good from the NFL and I have already done that and won't be buying anything anymore. The other is to stop watching football altogether, and while I haven't reached that point yet it's not as far fetched as it once was and is really much more likely than I ever thought it would be. At one point I was a big baseball fan, I always played growing up and both watched and listened to it, now I don't do either and doubt I every will again, and if the NFL continues on its current path then I can definitely see myself doing the same with football.

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This is dead-on exactly how I feel. I was a massive baseball fan as a kid but it would appear (yes, I'm getting old) that I have not watched a game in over 20 years. If the league continues on its current path, football will ultimately end out the same for me. Some of what happens with Jets tampering and Deflategate will factor in, but I also think just in general if Goodell is still the commish in 5 years it's likely I will not still be an active fan.

It's interesting, but I think there might become precedent for fans to "retire" as well. I even considered it after our Superbowl win... like going out as a fan on top. LOL