The 3-Pick Plan: CB, DT, OL?

In another thread today, I wrote:

patchick said:

I really only see 3 players/positions that I'm fully expecting the Patriots to draft:

- High-ceiling CB with some size
- Athletic DT
- OL of some stripe who could play LG

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Beyond that I have some positional preferences, but I can imagine the draft unfolding in a variety of ways.

Below is my list of preferred prospects for each of the three top target positions, in alphabetical order. (Obviously, feel free to improve on my suggestions!) What I'm pondering is, assuming you want to walk away with a player from every list, what's the best strategy for achieving that? E.g., is a first pick at CB simply a necessity?

CB
Kevin Johnson
Byron Jones
Marcus Peters

DT
Malcolm Brown
Carl Davis
Marcus Hardison
and maybe Grady Jarrett

OL
T.J. Clemmings
La'el Collins
Cameron Erving
Jake Fisher
D.J. Humphries
Ali Marpet
and maybe Cedric Ogbuehi, Donovan Smith

patchick said:

In another thread today, I wrote:

Beyond that I have some positional preferences, but I can imagine the draft unfolding in a variety of ways.

Below is my list of preferred prospects for each of the three top target positions, in alphabetical order. (Obviously, feel free to improve on my suggestions!) What I'm pondering is, assuming you want to walk away with a player from every list, what's the best strategy for achieving that? E.g., is a first pick at CB simply a necessity?

CB
Kevin Johnson
Byron Jones
Marcus Peters

DT
Malcolm Brown
Carl Davis
Marcus Hardison
and maybe Grady Jarrett

OL
T.J. Clemmings
La'el Collins
Cameron Erving
Jake Fisher
D.J. Humphries
Ali Marpet
and maybe Cedric Ogbuehi, Donovan Smith

Click to expand...

Before the loss of Revis and Browner, I identified Hardison and Marpet as 2 guys who I would personally target - the "athletic DT" and "OL with starting LG capability" that you've discussed:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/threads/my-approach-to-this-draft.1117443/

Obviously there are others, as you've suggested, but those were the 2 who stood out to me. For the rest, I proposed being "flexible" and taking a "fluid" approach to maximize value.

I agree that CB is a clear third area to address. The 3 guys who you've listed are probably at the top, but I would exclude Jalen Collins, PJ Williams, or even Eric Rowe.

My strategy to walk away with a player from each category:

- Take Marcus Peters, Byron Jones or Kevin Johnson at 32. Hopefully at least 1 will slip.
- Take one of Marcus Hardison or Ali Marpet at 64 - whichever you think is likely to go first.
- Trade up from 96 to the early-mid 3rd round for the other or Hardison/Marpet.

But I'm also tempted by the RBs in this draft - not as a pure need, but as a value. Todd Gurley slipping to 32 (unlikely), Tevin Coleman/Jay Ajayi to 64, or David Johnson to the early/mid 3rd round would all be strong temptations to veer from the above plan. That's where I really have trouble not giving in to fantasies about extra draft picks from "TamperGate".

BTW, a good read from Rob Slaton on Seahawksdraftblog about some athletic OL prospects in the draft:

http://seahawksdraftblog.com/seahawks-will-find-o-line-options-so-appealing

Of note:

Ali Marpet is, according to [SPARQ guru Zach] Whitman, the most dynamic athlete among offensive linemen in the 2015 draft. He notes: “If a player is in the 50th percentile, they rate as a perfectly average NFL athlete.” Marpet is in the 96th percentile. He might be raw and untested against top-level college opponents — but he’s a heck of a ball of clay ready to mold. He’s also an ascending talent. The small-school aspect will be off-putting to some and for that reason he maybe lasts a little longer than he should. It equally won’t be a shock if he goes in round two.

As you run down Whitman’s list you notice Laurence Gibson at #4 — a legit later round option. He has one year of tackle experience at Virginia Tech but exploded at the combine with size, length and athleticism. He’s one to watch for sure as a tackle project — especially if Seattle has to consider moving on from Russell Okung in the future.

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Gibson might be an appeal day 3 developmental tackle/guard option.

Given our needs at cb, I'd hate to trade out if we like one there. So many teams need help at that position. Literally, any team could draft one. Don't reach. But, if we like 2-3. Just take the best one.

I'd place a higher emphasis on DT than G. It's hard to find good ones at that position too. Many mocks have a guy like Carl Davis falling into the 50's. If BB likes him, I wouldn't mind a trade up to get him. Mayo and Manx like Marcus Hardison. Can probably get him at 64. I've seen mocks with Jordan Phillips falling into late 40's. I'd give up 64, 96 and a 6th for him.

I think we can re-sign Connolly at lg. Can trade for E. Mathis. Or, even just pick one at 97. That player might be able to start right away. A la Stork at center.

patchick said:

In another thread today, I wrote:


Beyond that I have some positional preferences, but I can imagine the draft unfolding in a variety of ways.

Below is my list of preferred prospects for each of the three top target positions, in alphabetical order. (Obviously, feel free to improve on my suggestions!) What I'm pondering is, assuming you want to walk away with a player from every list, what's the best strategy for achieving that? E.g., is a first pick at CB simply a necessity?

CB
Kevin Johnson
Byron Jones
Marcus Peters

DT
Malcolm Brown
Carl Davis
Marcus Hardison
and maybe Grady Jarrett

OL
T.J. Clemmings
La'el Collins
Cameron Erving
Jake Fisher
D.J. Humphries
Ali Marpet
and maybe Cedric Ogbuehi, Donovan Smith

Click to expand...

I like that list very much - mine is practically identical.

I think CB has become, by default, the first round diorite now. The team is deep at CB but lacks the star. Unless they've identified someone deeper in the class, they really need to go CB at 32 providing one of their guys is on the board.

I can see a potential trade up from 64 for a lineman if one of your guys listed (Clemmings, Fisher,Erving) falls to the mid-second. Otherwise it might be better to DT at 64 and get the best of the rest OG in the 3rd or 4th. A Jamil Douglas, John Miller or Donovan Smith.

However, I'd be fine with Marpet or Ogbuehi in the third, but there needs to be something else in place too like trading for Evan Smith or re-signing Dan Connolly.

I'm hoping you can be persuaded to come round on Grady Jarrett. I think he'd be a terrific get in the 3rd round. Would be backup/ competition for the, as yet, unproven Easley and could play alongside Easley in a type of NASCAR package. Jarrett is Aaron Donald-lite. I'd still take Hardison ahead of him but the gap isn't as big as it once was.

In summary then:

Rnd 1: CB
Rnd 2: OL if one of top guys falls (including trade up). If not, DT
Rnd 3: DT or best of next tier OL if missed on OL in 2.

The only real fly in the ointment for me is Ameer Abdullah and David Johnson who I think might still be in play at 64. In this scenario we could go:

32. Byron Jones
64. Abdullah/Johnson
Rnd 3 (trade up). Hardison/Jarrett
97. Marpet/Miller/Douglas or other OL.

patsfaninpa said:

Given our needs at cb, I'd hate to trade out if we like one there. So many teams need help at that position. Literally, any team could draft one. Don't reach. But, if we like 2-3. Just take the best one.

I'd place a higher emphasis on DT than G. It's hard to find good ones at that position too. Many mocks have a guy like Carl Davis falling into the 50's. If BB likes him, I wouldn't mind a trade up to get him. Mayo and Manx like Marcus Hardison. Can probably get him at 64. I've seen mocks with Jordan Phillips falling into late 40's. I'd give up 64, 96 and a 6th for him.

I think we can re-sign Connolly at lg. Can trade for E. Mathis. Or, even just pick one at 97. That player might be able to start right away. A la Stork at center.

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I like Davis too and wouldn't be dismayed by a trade up for him. I just think that Gardison/Jarrett are a decent 64-96 backstop at DT and that it would be better to trade up for a Fisher/Erving/Clemmings that falls as opposed to Davis.

I'm a little afraid of getting a CB with the 1st round pick, I would like them to keep the trend of getting good value on the 3rd round and developing the way they want.

With the 1st round I want a starter and I don't think a CB would be ready to have a impact in the pros like a DT or even RB. I don't want to see a CB getting burnt and getting problems with confidence or playing just a few snaps in year 1.

I'd rather go DT OL or RB.

Byron Jones
Ali Marpet
Marcus Hardison

Make it happen Bill.

varjao said:

I'm a little afraid of getting a CB with the 1st round pick, I would like them to keep the trend of getting good value on the 3rd round and developing the way they want.

With the 1st round I want a starter and I don't think a CB would be ready to have a impact in the pros like a DT or even RB. I don't want to see a CB getting burnt and getting problems with confidence or playing just a few snaps in year 1.

I'd rather go DT OL or RB.

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The dt's are just as big a gamble at 32 as the corners. You're not getting Wilfork or Seymour there. OL like Clemmings, Fisher and Erving would be safer picks. If you want to minimize risk.

patsfaninpa said:

I've seen mocks with Jordan Phillips falling into late 40's. I'd give up 64, 96 and a 6th for him.

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That's one player who makes me nervous. He's an impressive physical specimen, but the combination of back surgery and questions about his work ethic scare me off for that kind of price. Do you feel more confident in him?

mayoclinic said:

I agree that CB is a clear third area to address. The 3 guys who you've listed are probably at the top, but I would exclude Jalen Collins, PJ Williams, or even Eric Rowe.

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I'd look at Collins and maybe Williams if they hung around, but IMO they're a bit overrated on most rankings. Right now my decision tree at CB looks something like this:

Barring the unexpected, draft the best available CB at #32. If a great opportunity arises -- a top talent at another position drops, or the Pats get a rich trade offer -- then put aside CB for a little while and look at a 2nd tier headed by Rowe, with Josh Shaw and Alex Carter potentially in the mix.

Brady6 said:

Byron Jones
Ali Marpet
Marcus Hardison

Make it happen Bill.

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Psst...that's not a plan.

I have no quarrel with your choices, but what's your strategy to maximize the chance of that happening -- and to make sure good alternatives are available if another team scoops up one of your guys?

patchick said:

That's one player who makes me nervous. He's an impressive physical specimen, but the combination of back surgery and questions about his work ethic scare me off for that kind of price. Do you feel more confident in him?

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He's a risk. I've seen him actually quit on plays. That's why I'd stay away from him at 32. But, if we got the cb we like at 32 and signed a veteran guard. I'd be tempted to gamble a little at DT. He could be an eventual starter opposite Easley. 1st and 2nd down player. Who would come out on 3rd anyway.

What about Eddie GOLDMAN of FSU? He MAY be a player they can't refuse.

Three guys I see them having a hard time passing up on in the 1st round: Goldman, Jake FISHER and Kevin JOHNSON. Three plug and play guys pretty much...And FISHER can take over for SOLDER when he hits the big bucks in the FA market.

Carl Davis, think negatory on him, too slugish and didn't do much in college. College production is sometimes overrated but they pulled him out frequently on passing downs.

kennyb said:

What about Eddie GOLDMAN of FSU? He MAY be a player they can't refuse.

Three guys I see them having a hard time passing up on in the 1st round: Goldman, Jake FISHER and Kevin JOHNSON. Three plug and play guys pretty much...And FISHER can take over for SOLDER when he hits the big bucks in the FA market.

Carl Davis, think negatory on him, too slugish and didn't do much in college. College production is sometimes overrated but they pulled him out frequently on passing downs.

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Really don't want Goldman in the first. So overrated.

patchick said:

I'd look at Collins and maybe Williams if they hung around, but IMO they're a bit overrated on most rankings. Right now my decision tree at CB looks something like this:

Barring the unexpected, draft the best available CB at #32. If a great opportunity arises -- a top talent at another position drops, or the Pats get a rich trade offer -- then put aside CB for a little while and look at a 2nd tier headed by Rowe, with Josh Shaw and Alex Carter potentially in the mix.

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Right now my big board is still in flux, but the top 2 guys on my board are Todd Gurley and Marcus Peters. So if one of those is available at 32, I take him. If both are available then right now I have Gurley rated higher, though CB is a greater need. That's where my Jets tampering fantasy comes into play.

Most likely, Gurley is long gone, and one of my top 3 CBs is on the board at 32. I have Peters > Jones > Johnson, with all 3 worth taking at 32. TJ Clemmings and Eddie Goldman are probably the only guys I would consider taking other than a CB, and that's only if Peters is off the board.

[Aside: Clearly the solution to my dilemma is to get #6 from the Jets, trade it to Cleveland for #12 and #19, and then take Todd Gurley at 12, Marcus Peters at 19, and TJ Clemmings at 32! Then add Hardison, Marpet, and Eric Rowe, and we're all set. Obviously, that won't happen. Back to reality.]

So realistically, I think the odds are high of going CB at 32 and then trying to get Hardison and Marpet with 64 and a trade up from 96. I'd then hope that Eric Rowe is available at 97, or another top OL slips (most likely Ogbuehi or Donovan Smith of the guys listed earlier), or a RB like David Johnson or Jay Ajayi. I think getting Hardison at 64 is pretty likely right now, possibly a bit later, though you never know for sure. But as or right now, Marpet is the guy who is more likely to go before #64.

mayoclinic said:

Right now my big board is still in flux, but the top 2 guys on my board are Todd Gurley and Marcus Peters. So if one of those is available at 32, I take him. If both are available then right now I have Gurley rated higher, though CB is a greater need. That's where my Jets tampering fantasy comes into play.

Most likely, Gurley is long gone, and one of my top 3 CBs is on the board at 32. I have Peters > Jones > Johnson, with all 3 worth taking at 32. TJ Clemmings and Eddie Goldman are probably the only guys I would consider taking other than a CB, and that's only if Peters is off the board.

[Aside: Clearly the solution to my dilemma is to get #6 from the Jets, trade it to Cleveland for #12 and #19, and then take Todd Gurley at 12, Marcus Peters at 19, and TJ Clemmings at 32! Then add Hardison, Marpet, and Eric Rowe, and we're all set. Obviously, that won't happen. Back to reality.]

So realistically, I think the odds are high of going CB at 32 and then trying to get Hardison and Marpet with 64 and a trade up from 96. I'd then hope that Eric Rowe is available at 97, or another top OL slips (most likely Ogbuehi or Donovan Smith of the guys listed earlier), or a RB like David Johnson or Jay Ajayi. I think getting Hardison at 64 is pretty likely right now, possibly a bit later, though you never know for sure. But as or right now, Marpet is the guy who is more likely to go before #64.

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I can't see any scenario where Cleveland would trade #12 and #19 for #6.

I like this dream draft I would just add that we trade Garoppolo to the Texans for #16 and draft Danny Shelton.

12 - Gurley
16 - Shelton
19 - Peters
32 - Clemmings

I mean it is a given

Brady6 said:

I can't see any scenario where Cleveland would trade #12 and #19 for #6.

I like this dream draft I would just add that we trade Garoppolo to the Texans for #16 and draft Danny Shelton.

12 - Gurley
16 - Shelton
19 - Peters
32 - Clemmings

I mean it is a given

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I think Shelton is way overrated. I wouldn't do that.

With the understanding that this scenario involves a high degree of psychosis, I don't see why Cleveland trading #12 and #19 to move up to #6 for Marcus Mariota is any more unrealistic than the rest of it.

kennyb said:

What about Eddie GOLDMAN of FSU? He MAY be a player they can't refuse.

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For me, Goldman simply doesn't fit any of my big 3 needs. He's not an "athletic DT," he's an old-fashioned space-eating NT. That's not a position I'd like to spend a 1st-round pick on.