2016 Compensation Picks

Does anyone who knows more about the Formula than I do ~ For Those Scoring At Home: that's everybody!! ~ have any idea what we're looking at, as things currently stand? I would be ever so grateful.

This is currently my shaky Perception of things:

01 ~ Revis, astonishingly, gets us a Pick.
02 ~ Browner, almost as astonishingly, also gets us a Pick.
03 ~ Wilfork gets us a Pick.
04~ Vereen gets us a Pick.
05 ~ Sheard costs us a Pick.

Then, less likely...

06 ~ Ayers might get us a Pick.
07 ~ Casillas might get us a Pick.
08 ~ Chander might cost us a Pick.
09 ~ I don't believe that the others cost us anything. I have some vague notion of a Threshold.
10 ~ I also have a vague notion that it's more complex than simply saying "X" = "Y Pick".

*A big part of what I'm asking for help with is this QuasiTheoretical Scenario related to Revis signing elsewhere: If nothing else happens, but we loose a guy who's considered to warrant a 3rd Rounder, but then sign a guy who's considered to warrant a 4th...Do we get a 7th back? A 5th, perhaps? Or do we get the 3rd, anyway, only losing Value if we sign a guy who warrants a 3rd Rounder, in return?

Jason at Over The Cap has already done the work. Basically we get a 3rd (Revis) and three sixes (Vereen, Ayers and Casillas).

http://overthecap.com/2016-compensatory-draft-pick-update-3132015/

manxman2601 said:

Jason at Over The Cap has already done the work. Basically we get a 3rd (Revis) and three sixes (Vereen, Ayers and Casillas).

http://overthecap.com/2016-compensatory-draft-pick-update-3132015/

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Awesome!! Thanks, Brother Manx ~ And Brother Jason!!

I still have that Question, though, if anyone has a clue how to deduce the mysterious Compensation Pick Formula: If we had, say, signed Torrey Smith ~ Ye Gads!! ~ who they say warrants a 4th Rounder...what would happen to our prospective 3rd? I believe that I once read that if, say, we'd signed Suh ~ a fellow 3rd Rounder to Revis ~ that would've cancelled out the Revis Compensation Pick. Is that so?

And if so...What of the Torrey Smith Scenario?

I'm not certain and Miguel is probably the best person to answer this, but I believe players can only cancel across and down in regards to compensation value, not cancel picks above. So for your example OTG, Torrey Smith (4th) would not cancel out Revis (3rd) but would cancel out the loss of a free agent worth a 4th round pick or the highest one below. So I believe the only way we don't get a 3rd round pick for Revis is if we sign another FA worth a 3rd round pick. I could be completely wrong but this is the way I understand it.

Wilfork#75 said:

I'm not certain and Miguel is probably the best person to answer this, but I believe players can only cancel across and down in regards to compensation value, not cancel picks above. So for your example OTG, Torrey Smith (4th) would not cancel out Revis (3rd) but would cancel out the loss of a free agent worth a 4th round pick or the highest one below. So I believe the only way we don't get a 3rd round pick for Revis is if we sign another FA worth a 3rd round pick. I could be completely wrong but this is the way I understand it.

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That makes sense. Thank you, Brother Wilfork.

The second part of the question: Would Torrey Smith reduce the 3rd Rounder in any way?

Or is it strictly an All Or Nothing deal?

Chandler was released by the Bills, so he won't cost us anything comp-wise

Hey Grid, I believe I've figured out the formula. OZ82 + B2 = picks

I didn't think we would receive a pick for Revis, Wilfork or Browner any more than the Bills would for releasing Chandler. There must be a difference between being released and declining to pick up a roster bonus. If so pure genius building those into the contracts of Revis, Browner and Wilfork for what ended up being three one year deals all having the options declined.

Off The Grid said:

Does anyone who knows more about the Formula than I do ~ For Those Scoring At Home: that's everybody!! ~ have any idea what we're looking at, as things currently stand? I would be ever so grateful.

This is currently my shaky Perception of things:

01 ~ Revis, astonishingly, gets us a Pick.
02 ~ Browner, almost as astonishingly, also gets us a Pick.
03 ~ Wilfork gets us a Pick.
04~ Vereen gets us a Pick.
05 ~ Sheard costs us a Pick.

Then, less likely...

06 ~ Ayers might get us a Pick.
07 ~ Casillas might get us a Pick.
08 ~ Chander might cost us a Pick.
09 ~ I don't believe that the others cost us anything. I have some vague notion of a Threshold.
10 ~ I also have a vague notion that it's more complex than simply saying "X" = "Y Pick".

*A big part of what I'm asking for help with is this QuasiTheoretical Scenario related to Revis signing elsewhere: If nothing else happens, but we loose a guy who's considered to warrant a 3rd Rounder, but then sign a guy who's considered to warrant a 4th...Do we get a 7th back? A 5th, perhaps? Or do we get the 3rd, anyway, only losing Value if we sign a guy who warrants a 3rd Rounder, in return?

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Looks like they updated things based on yesterday's comp picks and have bumped Wilfork up to a 5th rounder

http://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

So they have us with
3rd. Revis
5th Wilfork
6th Vereen

We also have Ridley and Connolly out there too.. more than likely we will end up with another 6th rounder for a total of 4 for next year.

Also we have an extra 7th for Mallet next year too.

Not counting the 3rd rounder that the Jets are giving us for Woody's comments

manxman2601 said:

Jason at Over The Cap has already done the work. Basically we get a 3rd (Revis) and three sixes (Vereen, Ayers and Casillas).

http://overthecap.com/2016-compensatory-draft-pick-update-3132015/

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Not to be a Debbie Downer, but that particular page hasn't been updated in 10 days. The updated link is below:
http://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

The previous page didn't have Vince Wilfork, Robert McClain and Bradley Fletcher as part of it. Based on this, Jason is now projecting 3 comp picks - a 3rd for Revis (#98 as #97 will go to the Lions for Suh), a 5th for Wilfork, and a 6th for Vereen. McClain and Fletcher now cancel out Ayers and Casillas (if they make the team, that is....). Sheard continues to cancel out Browner.

EDIT: 4 minutes too late, Yopats beat me to it.

everlong said:

I didn't think we would receive a pick for Revis, Wilfork or Browner any more than the Bills would for releasing Chandler. There must be a difference between being released and declining to pick up a roster bonus. If so pure genius building those into the contracts of Revis, Browner and Wilfork for what ended up being three one year deals all having the options declined.

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Yes - the link that Manxman provided has the details. Basically - if a player is just flat out released, he doesn't count. If an option is declined, he does count. Revis is the best example. Tampa Bay released him last year moments before his salary for 2014 would have been fully guaranteed. But that wasn't an option, it was just a vesting timing. Whereas this year, Revis explicitly had an option that was declined, so he'll count.

Yes, Brothers, I know that if a Player is released he gets us Nothing and if an Option is declined, he gets us Compensatory Love. Yes. That is Understood, and always was.

The Core Question remains even yet unanswered, and at this point, alas, I suspect it shall thus remain.

Off The Grid said:

Yes, Brothers, I know that if a Player is released he gets us Nothing and if an Option is declined, he gets us Compensatory Love. Yes. That is Understood, and always was.

The Core Question remains even yet unanswered, and at this point, alas, I suspect it shall thus remain.

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There are generally two components of comp picks - the explicit cancelling out of players, and then the "net value" picks.

Generally, a signed player will cancel out the contract of a player lost at equal or lower value. So to the specific question - if they signed Suh, he *would* have cancelled out Revis. If they signed Torrey Smith, he wouldn't have canceled out Revis but rather someone else below.

Now, there are situations where there is no one left to cancel, in which case they do look to the contract above him. So in a hypothetical extreme - suppose we resigned everyone except Revis, and didn't sign any external guys except Bradley Fletcher. Well, sorry to break the bad news, but.... that 3rd round pick is gone.

So that's where the "net value" picks come in. For teams that lose an equal number of UFAs that they gain (and possibly even in some situations where they lose more than they gain; not 100% sure on that), if there is an extreme difference they could qualify for a 7th rounder. This 7th rounder gets applied after all of the explicit cancelling out compensatory picks.

Final note - there are only 32 comp picks in total. If more than 32 would be awarded by this formula, only the top 32 get awarded. So the "net value" picks are the first ones to go in that scenario. In the case where the formula would award less than 32 comp picks, then the remaining picks are given out as if there was an 8th round of the draft.

Hope this is what you are looking for (and I hope I explained it clearly).

I read somewhere that the Browner and Sheard picks basically cancelled each other out. If you think of it in those terms I think it's going to be a big win for what the 26 year old Sheard will bring to this defense over the next two years vs the 31 year old Browner (ages for start of the season). Salaries are also comparable.

I don't want to sound like I'm diminishing what Browner meant to this defense. His jam on the line on the last play alone is immeasurable and doesn't get nearly the love it should. But this is cold hard business and Bill correctly looks at it as Sheard is entering his apex and Browner will only get slower. Couple that with Nink's age (talk about not getting enough credit) and the snaps he and Jones have accumulated and I just love this acquisition. Doesn't hurt that I loved him coming out and wanted the Pats to draft him.

Hammer of Thor said:

There are generally two components of comp picks - the explicit cancelling out of players, and then the "net value" picks.

Generally, a signed player will cancel out the contract of a player lost at equal or lower value. So to the specific question - if they signed Suh, he *would* have cancelled out Revis. If they signed Torrey Smith, he wouldn't have canceled out Revis but rather someone else below.

Now, there are situations where there is no one left to cancel, in which case they do look to the contract above him. So in a hypothetical extreme - suppose we resigned everyone except Revis, and didn't sign any external guys except Bradley Fletcher. Well, sorry to break the bad news, but.... that 3rd round pick is gone.

So that's where the "net value" picks come in. For teams that lose an equal number of UFAs that they gain (and possibly even in some situations where they lose more than they gain; not 100% sure on that), if there is an extreme difference they could qualify for a 7th rounder. This 7th rounder gets applied after all of the explicit cancelling out compensatory picks.

Final note - there are only 32 comp picks in total. If more than 32 would be awarded by this formula, only the top 32 get awarded. So the "net value" picks are the first ones to go in that scenario. In the case where the formula would award less than 32 comp picks, then the remaining picks are given out as if there was an 8th round of the draft.

Hope this is what you are looking for (and I hope I explained it clearly).

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Wonderful!! Exactly what I was looking for!!

Sorry I missed this for 2 entire weeks!!

You must've answered this shortly before the Site had one'f its recent BlowOuts ~ I play off Notifications to a great extent, you see, especially when Time is short!! 1o00 Thanks, Brother Thor!!

Off The Grid said:

Wonderful!! Exactly what I was looking for!!

Sorry I missed this for 2 entire weeks!!

You must've answered this shortly before the Site had one'f its recent BlowOuts ~ I play off Notifications to a great extent, you see, especially when Time is short!! 1o00 Thanks, Brother Thor!!

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That's why, for example, the Pats got a comp 4 last year for losing Welker: Amendola's contract actually came in just under Welker's, so Amendola's deal canceled out a lower comp pick than Welker's.

If the Jets signed Ridley for more than 1.1 million a year, he will count as comp pick #4

BTW, it is not Jason who is doing the compensatory picks work. It is Nick Korte.