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Rob, I disagree. There are 2 things that are UNDENIABLE . First the Jets tampered with the Pats on Revis. What Johnson said "on the record" was almost word for word what the rule tells you NOT to say. Secondly, they have been warned about this kind of behavior just recently.
That's it. That is all they have to prove to provoke a HARSH penalty from the Jets. It should be significantly harsher than the Niners/Bears example because the Jets are serial offenders. Whether the Pats or the investigators can prove there was more illegal contact later is legally irrelevant. If you commit murder, you are going to get the same sentence whether you shot him once or 5 times
Besides even without DIRECT evidence a strong circumstantial case could be made from facts we already know. The speed of how a complex negotiation could get done in just a few hours, the Mehta tweet, etc. There is little question that several teams violated the "legal tampering policy". But the Jets are the only ones who have already had a written warning, followed by a textbook case of verbal tampering by an owner
For ALL that it is hard to believe that EVEN Goodell can let the Jets walk away with a slap on the wrist like swapping a mid round pick and/or losing a low pick. We have some precedence of what can happen when a perceived serial offender is caught again.
Technically, Robert Kraft tampered with Revis today. He said he wished he was still with the team. Different situations, but still tampering. I fully expect the Jets to file tampering charges (and can't wait for Manish Mehta to defend them for not being petty).
Everything you have said still does not warrant a first round pick penalty. They will need to have proof of direct contact for them to lose a first round pick.