2015 EDGE/pass rusher measurables scan

A few years ago I used a set of measurables to identify "athletic freaks" suited to play the edge on NFL defenses. It proved a surprisingly decent predictor of pro success:

patchick said:

Length (6'4"+) /Strength (20+ reps)/Explosiveness (VJ 35"+, BJ 09'06"+, 10-yd split 1.65-)/Quickness (3-cone 7.25-). A modest miss on one subscore was ok IF the player significantly overperformed on most others.

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http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...shers-the-myth-of-the-workout-warrior.954832/

I just used those measurables as a filter on this year's draft prospects. Here are the results:

HITS:
Vic Beasley
Bud Dupree
Randy Gregory (note: 235 lbs.)
Owamagbe Odighizuwa
Shaquille Riddick
Preston Smith

NEAR MISSES:
Frank Clark
Obum Gwacham
Eli Harold
Ryan Russell
Max Valles

INC:
Danielle Hunter
Davis Tull

Some highly rated edge players rejected by the measurables scan:

Mario Edwards
Trey Flowers
Dante Fowler
Nate Orchard
Shane Ray (note: possible injury factor)
Za'Darius Smith

I am fascinated to see if Clark gets picked in the 7th or not. His measureables seem to be perfect for a lot of teams, but the off the field questions are so large, I am interested to see if any team takes even a low risk pick with him.

I have read about his case, and cant really say much, but his quotes from the combine about it were not exactly encouraging.

It's no surprise that the 3-come is a good measure of success in a pass rusher*, it mirrors almost exactly what a pass rusher has to do in terms of bending the edge.

* Josh Norris says that the most useful predictors of NFL success at the combine are 3-come for edge players and the short shuttle for offensive linemen.

@patchick
I don't know if this is factored in to your calculation but Bud Dupree had a 7.45 3-cone. Does that count as a "modest miss"?

patchick said:

A few years ago I used a set of measurables to identify "athletic freaks" suited to play the edge on NFL defenses. It proved a surprisingly decent predictor of pro success:


http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...shers-the-myth-of-the-workout-warrior.954832/

I just used those measurables as a filter on this year's draft prospects. Here are the results:

HITS:
Vic Beasley
Bud Dupree
Randy Gregory (note: 235 lbs.)
Owamagbe Odighizuwa
Shaquille Riddick
Preston Smith

NEAR MISSES:
Frank Clark
Obum Gwacham
Eli Harold
Ryan Russell
Max Valles

INC:
Danielle Hunter
Davis Tull

Some highly rated edge players rejected by the measurables scan:

Mario Edwards
Trey Flowers
Dante Fowler
Nate Orchard
Shane Ray (note: possible injury factor)
Za'Darius Smith

Click to expand...

Note that 4 of our top 5 EDGE rushers (Collins, Hightower, Ninkovich and Sheard) are under 6'4".

I remember this old gem, http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=439601 .

Anyway, I did a pass on this years draftees after the combine so some numbers were missing and that left some players out. The results:

'Surname' 'Given Name' 'ExpPower' 'Twitch' 'Risk Group'
'Clark' 'Frank' '1.0556' '0.35' 'Low Risk 2'
'Davis' 'Carl' '1.0531' '0.74' 'Low Risk 2'
'Jarrett' 'Grady' '1.0642' '0.87' 'Low Risk 2'
'McCarthy' 'Ellis' '1.1256' '1.25' 'Low Risk 2'
'Nunez-Roches' 'Rakeem' '1.1122' '1.37' 'Low Risk 2'
'Odighizuwa' 'Owa' '1.0757' '0.57' 'Low Risk 2'
'Shelton' 'Danny' '1.0648' '1.17' 'Low Risk 2'
'Anderson' 'Henry' '0.93742' '0.56' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Armstead' 'Arik' '1.0056' '0.77' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Beasley' 'Vic' '1.0354' '0.96' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Blackson' 'Angelo' '1.0069' '0.8' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Brown' 'Malcom' '0.9965' '0.84' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Chickillo' 'Anthony' '0.96315' '1.06' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Cooper' 'Xavier' '0.95612' '0.69' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Edwards' 'Mario' '1.0094' '0.83' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Emanuel' 'Kyle' '0.93528' '0.56' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Flowers' 'Trey' '1.0305' '0.66' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Harold' 'Eli' '0.93211' '1' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Ifedi' 'Martin' '0.92795' '0.89' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Lott' 'Derrick' '0.94889' '0.67' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Orchard' 'Nate' '0.86434' '0.75' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Richardson' 'Bobby' '0.96198' '0.63' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Russell' 'Ryan' '0.94841' '0.83' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Smith' 'Preston' '0.97707' '0.65' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Smith' 'Za'Darius' '0.88766' '0.9' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Trail' 'Lyndon' '0.91178' '0.71' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Trinca-Pasat' 'Louis' '0.99514' '0.55' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Wagenmann' 'Zack' '0.9128' '0.59' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Williams' 'Leonard' '0.95247' '0.81' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Wright' 'Gabe' '0.89365' '0.77' 'Mid-Low Risk'
'Fowler' 'Dante' '0.91168' '1.16' 'Moderate Risk'
'Mbu' 'Joey' '0.8493' '1.2' 'Moderate Risk'
'Crawfors' 'Corey' '0.95371' '1.27' 'High Risk'
'Orr' 'Leon' '0.96077' '1.45' 'High Risk'
'Phillips' 'Jordan' '1.0328' '1.24' 'High Risk'
'Simon' 'Deon' '1.0108' '1.38' 'High Risk'
'Surratt' 'J.T.' '1.0147' '1.25' 'High Risk'
'Walton' 'L.T.' '0.9468' '1.39' 'High Risk'

Sorry about the formatting, it looks way better in the program I used to do it but it's too many rows to edit.

mayoclinic said:

Note that 4 of our top 5 EDGE rushers (Collins, Hightower, Ninkovich and Sheard) are under 6'4".

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...and by a funny coincidence, not one of them was drafted as a DE by the Patriots, unlike 6'5" Chandler Jones, Michael Buchanan, and Zach Moore.

mayoclinic said:

I think measurables are generally more effective as a negative screen than a positive one. A guy like Jarvis Jones has a huge red flag because of his measurables (and spinal stenosis issue). But there are a ton of guus with Gronkish measurables, and only one Gronk.

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I think the effectiveness of measurables screens varies a lot by position, too. QBs would obviously be at the very bottom, and edge defenders likely at the top. For TEs, no measurable is going to capture Gronk's soft hands. (Though his measurables line is pretty unusual -- you won't find many TEs > 6'6" and 260 lbs. who clock a 1.58 10-yd split.)

Even for edge rushers, of course, a pure measurables screen is going to miss plenty. And yet, I'd argue that it's better than any other single predictor of their success, including draft position. For instance, the draft year after I did the initial scan the total crop looked weak, with only Chandler Jones barely squeaking onto the hit list. 3 seasons later, that draft class has indeed failed to produce a truly elite pass rusher...and the sack leader of the class is Chandler Jones.

patchick said:

...and by a funny coincidence, not one of them was drafted as a DE by the Patriots, unlike 6'5" Chandler Jones, Michael Buchanan, and Zach Moore.



I think the effectiveness of measurables screens varies a lot by position, too. QBs would obviously be at the very bottom, and edge defenders likely at the top. For TEs, no measurable is going to capture Gronk's soft hands. (Though his measurables line is pretty unusual -- you won't find many TEs > 6'6" and 260 lbs. who clock a 1.58 10-yd split.)

Even for edge rushers, of course, a pure measurables screen is going to miss plenty. And yet, I'd argue that it's better than any other single predictor of their success, including draft position. For instance, the draft year after I did the initial scan the total crop looked weak, with only Chandler Jones barely squeaking onto the hit list. 3 seasons later, that draft class has indeed failed to produce a truly elite pass rusher...and the sack leader of the class is Chandler Jones.

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I do put a lot of emphasis on the combine in my scouting although I haven't resorted to formulas but I have become fascinated by the explosion numbers (including 10 yd split) and the 3-cone.

by the way, the below graph measures the explosive power rating as mentioned by Husse above:



There are seven dots in the red box. They represent: Khalil Mack, Shawne Merriman, Brian Orakpo, JJ Watt, Nick Perry and the second highest dot in Mario Williams. The circled dot? That's Bud Dupree. Interesting that Mario Williams is at a whole other level to the aforementioned guys and yet Bud Dupree is at a whole other level to Mario Williams.

https://twitter.com/JuMosq/status/570989832253493248

patchick said:

A few years ago I used a set of measurables to identify "athletic freaks" suited to play the edge on NFL defenses. It proved a surprisingly decent predictor of pro success:


http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...shers-the-myth-of-the-workout-warrior.954832/

I just used those measurables as a filter on this year's draft prospects. Here are the results:

HITS:
Vic Beasley
Bud Dupree
Randy Gregory (note: 235 lbs.)
Owamagbe Odighizuwa
Shaquille Riddick
Preston Smith

NEAR MISSES:
Frank Clark
Obum Gwacham
Eli Harold
Ryan Russell
Max Valles

INC:
Danielle Hunter
Davis Tull

Some highly rated edge players rejected by the measurables scan:

Mario Edwards
Trey Flowers
Dante Fowler
Nate Orchard
Shane Ray (note: possible injury factor)
Za'Darius Smith

Click to expand...

Wow fowler is a miss!!!!!

I was thinking fowler was a top 3 pick.

Ochmed Jones said:

Wow fowler is a miss!!!!!

I was thinking fowler was a top 3 pick.

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He might well be, and perhaps he'll even be a good one. But the only cutoff he made on my rough filter was the 10-yd split. (I wonder whether 4-3 OLB might be a better position for him?)

manxman2601 said:

I do put a lot of emphasis on the combine in my scouting although I haven't resorted to formulas but I have become fascinated by the explosion numbers (including 10 yd split) and the 3-cone.

by the way, the below graph measures the explosive power rating as mentioned by Husse above:

There are seven dots in the red box. They represent: Khalil Mack, Shawne Merriman, Brian Orakpo, JJ Watt, Nick Perry and the second highest dot in Mario Williams. The circled dot? That's Bud Dupree. Interesting that Mario Williams is at a whole other level to the aforementioned guys and yet Bud Dupree is at a whole other level to Mario Williams.

https://twitter.com/JuMosq/status/570989832253493248

Click to expand...

Well bud Dupree was my binky before, but now... Give up the whole draft for him lol. Obviously I'm kidding but would you guys take him at 32? With the signing of sheard it kind of makes a pass rusher less needed, but I also think he would be the BPA at 32.

manxman2601 said:

@patchick
I don't know if this is factored in to your calculation but Bud Dupree had a 7.45 3-cone. Does that count as a "modest miss"?

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Yeah, he just barely squeaked in because most his other scores were really exceptional, and because he's a solid 269 lbs. Judgment call.

patchick said:

He might well be, and perhaps he'll even be a good one. But the only cutoff he made on my rough filter was the 10-yd split. (I wonder whether 4-3 OLB might be a better position for him?)

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Grid gives Fowler a 1st round grade but calls him "overrated" based on his current top 10 (possible top 5) projection. I tend to agree. Fowler does a lot of things well, but his athleticism is not off the charts, and it's quite possible that his trajectory will be flatter than that of some other guys. His versatility makes him a great potential fit for the Pats, but not in that lofty range.

Many months ago I started a thread regarding Fowler and his high draft status. My thoughts were and still are in lockstep with you Mayo and Grid apparently. I think he is a first rounder, but where he is going to get drafted is just too rich for me.
I have never been on Shane Rey wagon either. I think he sits in no mans land, and his pro day only confirmed that. He is a guy with a great first step and motor, but is not strong enough to play with his hand in the dirt and doesn't move well enough in space to play linebacker. I worry for any team that takes him high. I don't even have a first round grade on him and will not be on my Patriots big board.

midwestpatsfan said:

I have never been on Shane Rey wagon either. I think he sits in no mans land, and his pro day only confirmed that. He is a guy with a great first step and motor, but is not strong enough to play with his hand in the dirt and doesn't move well enough in space to play linebacker. I worry for any team that takes him high. I don't even have a first round grade on him and will not be on my Patriots big board.

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That's about where I sit, too. OTOH, Grid think he's a top 5 value, and Manx loves him, and both those guys are very astute.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
I think this class is fascinating because there are a lot of players who are getting different opinions and it will be interesting to see who pans out and who doesn't.
I will say this, there are not alot of guys in this draft I will feel comfortable banging the table for if the Patriots had a top 10 pick this year.
I think the guys I like will start coming off the board in the early 20's with the exception of Bud Dupree, who could go higher.

mayoclinic said:

That's about where I sit, too. OTOH, Grid think he's a top 5 value, and Manx loves him, and both those guys are very astute.

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Give me a guy with a great first step and an outstanding motor over a sluggish lazy prospect with a great skill set every day. I can do something with the former.

manxman2601 said:

Give me a guy with a great first step and an outstanding motor over a sluggish lazy prospect with a great skill set every day. I can do something with the former.

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I agree that one can do something with a guy with a great first step and outstanding motor. I agree that I don't want a sluggish lazy prospect, no matter what his skill set. I'm just not sure what about that makes Ray a top 20 pick, much less a top 5 value, or what makes him a good fit for the Pats.

mayoclinic said:

I agree that one can do something with a guy with a great first step and outstanding motor. I agree that I don't want a sluggish lazy prospect, no matter what his skill set. I'm just not sure what about that makes Ray a top 20 pick, much less a top 5 value, or what makes him a good fit for the Pats.

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1. I've never said he's a good fit for the Patriots. Quite the opposite in fact.

2. I don't think he's a top 5 pick either.

3. Top 20, now we're talking. He's the best pure pass rusher in the class. Anyone who watches the tape can see that. He beats Humphries at least twice.

Check out https://twitter.com/forcepIayers .. very similar take

and the origination http://draftbreakdown.com/math-rushers/