Why Super Bowl repeats are so hard to achieve

1960Pats · Mar 20, 2015

supafly said:
The high majority of teams need to have the ball bounce their way, at multiple times throughout the season. We just saw a prime example of the amount of luck and good breaks needed to overcome major deficits in 2/3 postseason games. While some of that was obviously the excellent preparation and talent of the coaches and players, a lot of things had to happen (drawing specific matchups in the postseason such as the 6th and 4th seeded teams), locking up homefield advantage from a Cincinnati pick-six MNF game where another team scored at the right time to oust our competitor, and all of the things that happened in-between.

Even if you assume that there are going to be 8-10 solid contenders in the playoffs every year, it's highly unlikely that the previous year's winner is going to come up again. It'd be like writing a number on a ping pong ball, dropping it in with 8-10 other balls, and expecting the same exact number to come up twice in a row. It's not going to happen too often. Even if you cut the postseason field down to only 3 solid competitors from each conference (something that cannot be done anymore due to the emergence of WC teams), there are still going to be 6 quality teams, and an approximate 16-17 percent chance.

Free agency + the salary cap era have allowed for this kind of parity to happen, which makes the 03-04 back to back run all the more impressive.

I think it all comes down to making the playoffs. Once a team does that they have a decent chance of going all the way.

As for parity, it seems like the same teams make the playoffs every year with only a few exceptions.

brdmaverick · Mar 20, 2015

Heres's another reason..............

When you are the best you tend to get the other's teams best efforts each and every week.

This is not something that will impact the Patriots, however, as teams have been geeked up to play them for over a decade now.

supafly · Mar 20, 2015

1960Pats said:
I think it all comes down to making the playoffs. Once a team does that they have a decent chance of going all the way.
.

The past 10 years could suggest that being one of the top 6-8 teams every year doesn't mean anything in terms of "going all the way."

To take that one step further, one can look to the situation of Peyton Manning, who is consistently one of the better QBs in terms of helping his team to not only make the playoffs, but also acquire a very good seed.

Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees would be other prime examples that show that simply making the playoffs doesn't mean much of anything, as all three of the above examples make the postseason just about every year, yet have only won it once.

What you do once you get there is what really matters, which is why you need good bounces of the ball and other various factors that cannot normally be controlled. Just my opinion.

IllegalContact · Mar 20, 2015

the pats were in a unique position to repeat.......they had just won the SB, their QB was still on a rather inexpensive deal, they had monster success in FA and draft and were getting outstanding value across their roster.......throw in 2 1st round picks (wilfork and watson), a rejuvenated RB (dillon), colvin returning from injury........and they had no major departures (washington, but traylor showed up in his place)......very few were not in their prime

scott99 · Mar 20, 2015

OhExaulted1 said:
I was 13 when the Patriots made their first SB in Jan. '86. I've sinced watched them make 7 more. I can't really comment about this because I'm blissfully tainted.

Great point, I was 23 when they made their first. Been so spoiled the last 13 years.

As far as SB 50, I think it will be extremely difficult for the Pats to repeat. They've suffered major losses that they may not be able to recover from (this year). I think they will be extremely competitive, but a lot of things will have to go the Pat's way to get back to the SB, that secondary, could be brutal this year, definitely a weakness. That being said, you have to be excited about the future of this team, a lot of young, GOOD players that will all come into their own at the same time (hopefully they all make major jumps this year). Also, it's quite early in the process, there are still free agents, draft picks, possible trades, and guys who get cut from other teams that could wind up on this team.

Should be an interesting couple of months. I am still basking in the glory of the 2014 Pats.

Gumby · Mar 20, 2015

rookBoston said:
....

Suppose the "best" team in the NFL has 7-1 odds to win the SB in any given year. For them to do it twice is a row is 49-1, assuming they survive the draft and free agency without backslipping in pure talent.

That means an elite team like the Pats with 7-1 odds to win the SB in any given year would need 49 seasons to be repeat SB champions just once. And that requires that the team can sustain a roster of players deserving of a 7-1 Vegas line for 49 years.

No wonder its so hard.

Ok, it's hard to repeat. You, however, just mathed this up into ludicrous! At best, Those 49-1 are the odds for a team to win TWO IN A ROW.

NEWSFLASH: They already got the first one. Their odds can' t be worse than 1-32 (if they are an average team). There are only 31 competitors after all. And if they are still a favorite- they are still 7-1 odds to win nbr two.

What you did is similar-opposite to the guy who flips a quarter heads three times and says I have a 75% chance of tails the fourth toss. Hell no, it's still 50-50.

Pats Fanatic · Mar 20, 2015

I found a pretty good article that Bill Belichick wrote after the Bucs won in 2003.
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/26/opinion/ok-champ-now-comes-the-hard-part.html

Deus Irae · Mar 20, 2015

You, basically, need to have at least one of 3 things to win the SB:

Elite talent to carry your team despite any holes
Deep quality to carry your team despite any lack of elite talent
A run of luck/great play at just the right time

In order to repeat, you need to get that two years running, and have it more than the other 31 teams in both of those seasons.

Patstopia · Mar 20, 2015

I find that the one thing that kills a team chance of repeating is mental, basically they get big heads. They listen to the talking heads and actually believe they are so much better than everyone else.
Look at Seattle this year, horrible, terrible start. Luckily for them they got their heads out of their butts and started playing better at the end. But it was Green Bay's overconfidence at the end of their game that put Seattle in the SB.
Mental toughness is what differentiates winners from losers. BB always makes sure his teams are focused on the moment, not on the past or future!

rookBoston · Mar 20, 2015

Gumby said:
Ok, it's hard to repeat. You, however, just mathed this up into ludicrous! At best, Those 49-1 are the odds for a team to win TWO IN A ROW.

NEWSFLASH: They already got the first one. Their odds can' t be worse than 1-32 (if they are an average team). There are only 31 competitors after all. And if they are still a favorite- they are still 7-1 odds to win nbr two.

What you did is similar-opposite to the guy who flips a quarter heads three times and says I have a 75% chance of tails the fourth toss. Hell no, it's still 50-50.

I don't disagree with you at all. I assume you misread my post. 49-1 are the odds for a 7-1 team to win consecutive Superbowls. That's what this thread is about... "Why Superbowl repeats are so hard to achieve". 49-1 applies to any perennially elite team, like Denver, Green Bay, Baltimore. In a general case, it should take an elite team about 50 years to win consecutive Superbowls, assuming they can maintain their level of excellence over that period of time.

The Pats already did it in 2003-2004, which beat the odds, since there have only been 49 Superbowls in the history of time.

You correctly point out that the odds for the Pats to win in 2015 are 7-1 (or slightly better... I've seen 13-2). And, since they already won in 2014, they're already "half way there", so to speak, to doing it again for the second time in a 12 years... which would be a truly amazing achievement.

If it sounds to you like I'm suggesting the Pats' chance to win the SB in 2015 is 49-1, or something like that... well, no. That would make no sense.

1960Pats · Mar 20, 2015

supafly said:
The past 10 years could suggest that being one of the top 6-8 teams every year doesn't mean anything in terms of "going all the way."

To take that one step further, one can look to the situation of Peyton Manning, who is consistently one of the better QBs in terms of helping his team to not only make the playoffs, but also acquire a very good seed.

Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees would be other prime examples that show that simply making the playoffs doesn't mean much of anything, as all three of the above examples make the postseason just about every year, yet have only won it once.

What you do once you get there is what really matters, which is why you need good bounces of the ball and other various factors that cannot normally be controlled. Just my opinion.

I think we're saying the same thing. I agree that the bounces have to be right to go all the way. If any fans have learned that it's us Pats fans. I very much enjoyed the bounces we got this year.

Ice_Ice_Brady · Mar 20, 2015

This thread contains enlightening thoughts and well-supported conclusions. It does not belong on the Internet.

Now I'm going to continue reading about how the 2007 and 2011 teams were botched badly due to Belichick and Kraft's greed, arrogance, and stubbornness, while the 2014 team was created perfectly and set into motion to inevitably win the Super Bowl.

Brady_to_Moss · Mar 20, 2015

Roster change over and injuries every year make is very very difficult

supafly · Mar 20, 2015

Brady_to_Moss said:
Roster change over and injuries every year make is very very difficult

No doubt. Free agency + the salary cap have really changed things.

lurker1965 · Mar 22, 2015

rookBoston said:
...

That means an elite team like the Pats with 7-1 odds to win the SB in any given year would need 49 seasons to be repeat SB champions just once. And that requires that the team can sustain a roster of players deserving of a 7-1 Vegas line for 49 years.

No wonder its so hard.

Yet there are repeat champions roughly every ten years or so. (Patriots, Broncos, Cowboys, 49ers, Steelers, Steelers, Dolphins, Packers - maybe 5 year without FA.)
That would mean a consistent 3 - 1 or maybe even 7 - 2.

lurker1965 · Mar 22, 2015

A healthy Gronk gives a 50-50 shot.

Ochmed Jones · Mar 22, 2015

When you play as many games as the patriots have played over he past two years, guys wind up having surgery to fix, clean out, tighten up and alleviate problems,

Then they spend the offseason rehabbing instead of preparing for the next season.

It's a nasty consequence of continued excellence,

doesntmatter1 · Mar 23, 2015

Don't lose coordinators such as Weiss and Crennel. Seahawks are going through this now and it will be felt.

Why Super Bowl repeats are so hard to achieve

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