Edelman #4, Vollmer #9 in Mel Kiper's 2009 Re-Draft

This was one of the worst drafts in recent memory, and the Patriots found two top-10 gems. Ironically, they weren't the Patriots first picks in the draft.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...iper-re-drafts-2009-nfl-draft-class-nfl-draft

Here is an example of how the Patriots believe that drafting a higher quantity of players is the better way to approach the draft, considering they were wrong about many of their picks. It also shows the misnomer that many people believe drafting for quantity means you may have some decent players but can't land the premier talent in the draft. In this case, with Edelman being #4 and Vollmer being #9, clearly draft position does not necessarily put a higher or lower ceiling on the player (though it may increase the liklihood of success.)

2a Pat Chung, SS, Oregon
2b Ron Brace, DT, Boston College
2c Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut
2d Sebastian Vollmer, OL, Houston
3a Brandon Tate, WR, North Carolina
3b Tyrone McKenzie, LB, South Florida
4 Rich Ohrnberger, OL, Penn State
5 George Bussey, OL, Louisville
6a Jake Ingram, LS, Hawaii
6b Myron Pryor, DT, Kentucky
7a Julian Edelman, WR, Kent State
7b Darryl Richard, DT, Georgia Tech

For those of you who think it's a good idea to trade up, take a look at some of the "top" prospects who were considered least likely to bust:

2. Jason Smith
3. Tyson Jackson
4. Aaron Curry
5. Mark Sanchez
6. Andrew Smith
7. Darrius Heyward-Bey
8. Eugene Monroe
9. B.J. Raji
10. Michael Crabtree

Do you think those teams would have been better off trading down for a bunch of picks, hoping like the Patriots that a few of them stick?

Well that trade out of the first round to take Butler and Brace instead of drafting Clay Matthews really paid dividends

FreeTedWilliams said:

Well that trade out of the first round to take Butler and Brace instead of drafting Clay Matthews really paid dividends

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Yes, because there was no chance at the time that Matthews was going to be a bust. In fact, the Patriots had a secret handbook that gave them a review of each player five years into the future.

Amazing- the Patriots probably had the best draft of any NFL team with two top-10 talents despite drafting from a bad position, yet people still ***** and moan because they don't understand the concept of playing percentages and taking advantage of the unknown.

Darrius Heyward-Bey was never considered remotely "least likely to bust"

I remember Mel Kiper saying something like he was a 3rd/4th round pick that happened to have have run fast in shorts and track shoes. It was a Al Davis shake-your-head moment if there ever was one, with el-busto written all over it in capital letters.

A 7th rounder to #4... Julian was an incredible draft steal, second only to TFB in Pats history.

Wait...he has him #4 OVERALL? That seems a little high. Edelman is good but 4th overall? Damn.

Amazing how that draft has rebounded:

1. Vollmer: Best RT in football
2. Edelman: Top 20 WR, best PR NFL history
3. Chung: Decent starting SS

Butler has been a starting nickel back for a few years now too.

Who is Mel Kiper? Has he worked for NFL teams as director of pro personnel?

If Kyper wasn't such a dink, a thread like this would have meaning.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

Yes, because there was no chance at the time that Matthews was going to be a bust. In fact, the Patriots had a secret handbook that gave them a review of each player five years into the future.

Amazing- the Patriots probably had the best draft of any NFL team with two top-10 talents despite drafting from a bad position, yet people still ***** and moan because they don't understand the concept of playing percentages and taking advantage of the unknown.

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They had the #23, #34, #40, #58 going into the draft! How is that "bad position"?

They went into that draft with 4 picks in the top 60, left with Chung, Brace, Butler, and Vollmer. And Vollmer who turned out to be the best pick, was the last guy they took in the second round!

FreeTedWilliams said:

And Vollmer who turned out to be the best pick, was the last guy they took in the second round!

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Which perfectly illustrates why they choose quantity as their approach. Their evaluations are imperfect, so they grab as many players as they can. Edelman was the last guy they picked in the entire draft.

The draft consists of recent college grads who aren't done growing, haven't had a real job, haven't had money, haven't been under a microscope, played in a completely different college system where their talents were unique...the draft is a very imprecise science. That is why the Patriots acknowledge it is better to have more picks than higher picks.

It's taking a Moneyball approach to the draft; play percentages even if they seem counterintuitive.

FreeTedWilliams said:

Well that trade out of the first round to take Butler and Brace instead of drafting Clay Matthews really paid dividends

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Considering it also paid for Gronk, yes, it did!

Wow! Looking at this redraft, the 2009 draft in general just really sucked. Half the guys he have going in the first round in the redraft aren't worth first round picks. I think from pick 19 down, I would trade away the first round pick in this redraft even with the benefit of what they did over the last five seasons.

Oswlek said:

Considering it also paid for Gronk, yes, it did!

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Yeah, I would take Gronk over Clay Matthews. So the Pats did ultimately get better value than they gave up in this trade.

hwc said:

Who is Mel Kiper? Has he worked for NFL teams as director of pro personnel?

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Anyone remember this?...Classic. Kiper vs Bill Tobin.

The days when sitting around for two days straight, drink beer and watch the draft and praying the Pats would pick someone good.

something to keep in mind, a few of those "busts" the patriots picked, are starters on other nfl teams.

So while they might have fit the patriots plans they are still high quality players.

Rob0729 said:

Yeah, I would take Gronk over Clay Matthews. So the Pats did ultimately get better value than they gave up in this trade.

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Gronk was a more complete player as a rookie than Clay has been at any point in his career.

robertweathers said:

Anyone remember this?...Classic. Kiper vs Bill Tobin.

The days when sitting around for two days straight, drink beer and watch the draft and hoping the Pats would picks someone good.

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This is a case of two idiots being wrong. Sure Kiper was right that Trev Alberts was an incredibly dumb draft pick, but his alternative wasn't much better in Trent Dilfer. Should have taken Bryant Young or Sam Adams (both went right after Alberts and Dilfer).

Oswlek said:

Gronk was a more complete player as a rookie than Clay has been at any point in his career.

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Clay is a very good player, but Gronk has the chance to be the best TE in NFL history if he stays healthy.

Oswlek said:

Gronk was a more complete player as a rookie than Clay has been at any point in his career.

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You might be being a little too hard on Clay. He saved that defense last year once he moved to ILB.

Hes no Gronk but I'd take him in a heartbeat.

Rob0729 said:

This is a case of two idiots being wrong. Sure Kiper was right that Trev Alberts was an incredibly dumb draft pick, but his alternative wasn't much better in Trent Dilfer. Should have taken Bryant Young or Sam Adams (both went right after Alberts and Dilfer).

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Just so surreal. A VP of Personnel going after a draftnik. Talk about rabbit ears...